The economy is stagnating and job losses are mounting. Now is the time to cut interest rates again.

That was the view of the Bank of England’s nine-member rate setting committee on Thursday.

Well, at least five of them.

The other four presented us with a different view: Inflation is above target and climbing – this is no time to cut interest rates.

Who is right? All of them and none of them.

Central bankers have been backed into a corner by the current economic climate and navigating a path out is challenging.

The difficulty in charting that route was on display as the Bank struggled to decide on the best course of monetary policy.

The committee had to take it to a re-vote for the first time in the Bank’s history.

On one side, central bankers – including Andrew Bailey – were swayed by the data on the economy. Growth is “subdued”, they said, and job losses are mounting.

This should weigh on wage increases, which are already moderating, and in turn inflation.

One member, Alan Taylor, was so worried about the economy he initially suggested a larger half a percentage point cut.

On the other side, their colleagues were alarmed by inflation.

The Bank upgraded its inflation forecasts, with the headline index expected to hit 4% in September.

In a blow to the chancellor, the September figure is used to uprate a number of benefits and pensions. The Bank lifted it from a previous forecast of 3.75%.

In explaining the increase, the Bank blamed higher utility bills and food prices.

Food price inflation could hit 5.5% this year, an increase driven by poor harvests, some expensive packaging regulations as well as higher employment costs arising from the Autumn Budget.

When pressed by Sky News on the main contributor to that increase – poor harvests or government policy – the governor said: “It’s about 50-50.”

The Bank doesn’t like to get political but nothing about this is flattering for the chancellor.

The Bank said food retailers, including supermarkets, were passing on higher national insurance and living wage costs – the ones announced in the Autumn Budget – to customers.

Economists at the Bank pointed out that food retailers employ a large proportion of low wage workers and are more vulnerable to the lowering of the national insurance threshold because they have a larger proportion of part-time workers.

The danger doesn’t end there.

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Of all the types of inflation, food price inflation is among the most dangerous.

Households spend 11% of their disposable income, meaning higher food price inflation can play an outsized role in our perception of how high overall inflation in the economy is.

When that happens, workers are more likely to push for pay rises, a dangerous loop that can lead to higher inflation.

So while the chancellor is publicly celebrating the Bank’s fifth interest rate cut in a year, behind the scenes she will have very little to cheer.

Remnants of Tropical Storm Dexter will bring an increase in temperatures over the weekend, with highs of 34C possible next week.

A heatwave could be registered in parts of the South early next week and could spread more widely if temperatures hold.

Temperatures of 28C (82F) are possible in the South on Sunday, reaching 30C (86F) across parts of England on Monday before getting closer to 34C (93F) on Tuesday.

Warm and muggy nights are to be expected, especially in the South.

Conditions will be more unsettled in the North, with strong winds and rain at times.

In its forecast the Met Office said Friday will be a brighter day for many, with sunny spells across southern and central areas and highs of 25-26C expected. Northern Scotland will be breezy with showery outbreaks of rain.

Saturday will also see sunny spells for much of England and Wales, but there will be some rain in northern areas, paritcularly northern Scotland.

A weather front moving in from the west will bring rain to Northern Ireland, parts of Scotland and possibly northern England by Sunday evening, while central and southern areas are expected to remain dry with sunny spells.

Temperatures will begin to rise in the South from Sunday evening, as the remnants of Tropical Storm Dexter “draws warm air up from the southwest across the UK”, the Met Office said.

Temperatures are expected to exceed 30C across parts of central, southern and eastern England on Monday and Tuesday, the forecaster added.

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“We’re confident that temperatures will increase markedly by the start of next week, reaching the low 30s Celsius in parts of England on Monday and perhaps the mid 30s in a few places on Tuesday,” said Met Office deputy chief meteorologist Steven Keates.

“However, the length of this warm spell is still uncertain, and it is possible that high temperatures could persist further into next week, particularly in the south.”

“Ex-Dexter sets the wheels in motion for an uptick in temperatures, but the weather patterns then maintaining any hot weather are rather more uncertain”.