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Losing both the Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections means the Conservatives have established a new record – the largest number of defeats it has suffered in a single parliament.

A net loss of nine seats is one more than the eight defeats in the mid-1990s as John Major led the party to one of its heaviest general election defeats.

The odds of Rishi Sunak repeating that have increased.

The defeat in Wellingborough is one of the worst in the Conservative Party‘s long history. Peter Bone’s majority of more than 18,000 votes swept aside, with Labour winning with a 6,000 majority of its own. The Conservative vote fell by 38 percentage points, more than enough to erase its 36% majority.

By-election results live: Labour secures double victory

Wellingborough rewrites the record books. The decline in vote share from the preceding general election – 37.6 points – is the largest since 1945 and shatters the previous record 32-point fall in Christchurch in 1993.

Wellingborough becomes the eighth-largest Conservative majority overturned since 1945.

Six of the top 10 by-elections in that list are contests held during the current parliament.

There was a 28.5-point swing away from the Conservatives, not quite beating the record 29.1-point swing to Labour in Dudley West established in 1994, but easily the largest this parliament.

Labour was understandably quick to celebrate these numbers, using the Con to Lab swing to suggest that if this had been a general election the Conservative party would be all but wiped out.

An exaggeration, but Labour’s almost 20-point increase in vote share ranks among the best, marginally smaller than the improvement shown in the Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Tamworth and Selby & Ainsty by-elections earlier in this parliament.

The party has six by-election net gains this parliament, the most Labour has ever made.

A significant fraction of the collapse in Conservative vote share is explained by the 13% of voters who supported Reform.

How many of these were Conservative defectors is difficult to say, but there is no doubting the importance of this performance in the context of an imminent general election.

National polls suggest Reform has the support of one in 10 voters, about the same number intending to vote for the Liberal Democrats. Given that, polling 13% in a constituency where a clear majority voted to leave the EU in 2016, is about a par result but not an indication that the party can win seats.

However, Reform is a real threat, the catalyst for far greater Conservative seat losses than would otherwise be the case.

In Kingswood there was a small 21-point drop in the Conservative vote, but there too that was not mirrored by Labour’s increase of 12 points.

The difference is again explained by the 10% of voters who supported Reform. Here, as with Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth beforehand, the combined votes of the Conservative and Reform exceeded those cast for the Labour winner.

The far smaller 16.4-point swing to Labour is in line with the swing suggested by current national polls, rather than repeating the scale of the Wellingborough victory.

This won’t worry Labour, of course, with a general election now less than a year away, a swing of this scale would give Sir Keir Starmer a Commons majority of 110 seats.

In both seats there was a sharp fall in turnout, falling by 26 points in Wellingborough but one of 34 points in Kingswood.

It would be wrong to say this came as a result of holding by-elections in winter weather because it reflects the indifference generally shown by electors throughout this parliament.

With the Rochdale by-election just two weeks away (the first by-election to be held on 29 February since 1944) it is prudent not to extrapolate too much from these two results. Labour has disowned its candidate there, although his name remains on the ballot paper.

If, as seems likely, Labour loses the seat, the Conservatives will exploit that to the full. Whether they succeed in halting Labour’s progress towards the next general election remains to be seen.

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Mandelson appointment was ‘worth the risk’ despite ‘strong relationship’ with Epstein, says minister

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Mandelson appointment was 'worth the risk' despite 'strong relationship' with Epstein, says minister

Appointing Lord Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US was “worth the risk”, a minister has told Sky News.

Peter Kyle said the government put the Labour peer forward for the Washington role, despite knowing he had a “strong relationship” with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

It is this relationship that led to Peter Mandelson being fired on Thursday by the prime minister.

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Lord Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein. File pic
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Lord Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein. File pic

But explaining the decision to appoint Lord Mandelson, Business Secretary Mr Kyle said: “The risk of appointing [him] knowing what was already public was worth the risk.

“Now, of course, we’ve seen the emails which were not published at the time, were not public and not even known about. And that has changed this situation.”

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, he rejected the suggestion that Lord Mandelson was appointed to Washington before security checks were completed.

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He explained there was a two-stage vetting process for Lord Mandelson before he took on the ambassador role.

The first was done by the Cabinet Office, while the second was a “political process where there were political conversations done in Number 10 about all the other aspects of an appointment”, he said.

This is an apparent reference to Sir Keir Starmer asking follow-up questions based on the information provided by the vetting.

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‘We knew it was a strong relationship’

These are believed to have included why Lord Mandelson continued contact with Epstein after he was convicted and why he was reported to have stayed in one of the paedophile financier’s homes while he was in prison.

Mr Kyle said: “Both of these things turned up information that was already public, and a decision was made based on Peter’s singular talents in this area, that the risk of appointing knowing what was already public was worth the risk.”

Mr Kyle also pointed to some of the government’s achievements under Lord Mandelson, such as the UK becoming the first country to sign a trade deal with the US, and President Donald Trump’s state visit next week.

Mr Kyle also admitted that the government knew that Lord Mandelson and Epstein had “a strong relationship”.

“We knew that there were risks involved,” he concluded.

PM had only ‘extracts of emails’ ahead of defence of Mandelson at PMQs – as Tories accuse him of ‘lying’

Speaking to Sky News, Kyle also sought to clarify the timeline of what Sir Keir Starmer knew about Lord Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein, and when he found this out.

It follows Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch accusing the prime minister of “lying to the whole country” about his knowledge of the then US ambassador’s relationship with the paedophile.

Allegations about Lord Mandelson began to emerge in the newspapers on Tuesday, while more serious allegations – that the Labour peer had suggested Epstein’s first conviction for sexual offences was wrongful and should be challenged – were sent to the Foreign Office on the same day by Bloomberg, which was seeking a response from the government.

But the following day, Sir Keir went into the House of Commons and publicly backed Britain’s man in Washington, giving him his full confidence. Only the next morning – on Thursday – did the PM then sack Lord Mandelson, a decision Downing Street has insisted was made based on “new information”.

Read more:
Witch-hunt vibe in Labour on who approved appointment
Senior Labour MP demands answers over Mandelson vetting

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Vetting ‘is very thorough’

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Kyle said: “Number 10 had what was publicly available on Tuesday, which was extracts of emails which were not in context, and they weren’t the full email.

“Immediately upon having being alerted to extracts of emails, the Foreign Office contacted Peter Mandelson and asked for his account of the emails and asked for them to be put into context and for his response. That response did not come before PMQs [on Wednesday].

“Then after PMQs, the full emails were released by Bloomberg in the evening.

“By the first thing the next morning when the prime minister had time to read the emails in full, having had them in full and reading them almost immediately of having them – Peter was withdrawn as ambassador.”

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Government deeming Mandelson to be ‘worth the risk’ is unlikely to calm Labour MPs

The Conservatives have claimed Sir Keir is lying about what he knew, with Laura Trott telling Sky News there are “grave questions about the prime minister’s judgement”.

The shadow education secretary called for “transparency”, and told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “We need to understand what was known and when.”

Laura Trott says there are 'grave questions about the prime minister's judgement'
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Laura Trott says there are ‘grave questions about the prime minister’s judgement’

They believe that Sir Keir was in possession of the full emails on Tuesday, because the Foreign Office passed these to Number 10. This is despite the PM backing Mandelson the following day.

Ms Trott explained: “We are calling for transparency because, if what we have outlined is correct, then the prime minister did lie and that is an extremely, extremely serious thing to have happened.”

She added: “This was a prime minister who stood on the steps of Downing Street and said that he was going to restore political integrity and look where we are now. We’ve had two senior resignations in the space of the number of weeks.

“The prime minister’s authority is completely shot.”

But Ms Trott refused to be drawn on whether she thinks Sir Keir should resign, only stating that he is “a rudderless, a weak prime minister whose authority is shot at a time we can least afford it as a country”.

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Labour MPs already angry over claim Mandelson’s appointment was ‘worth the risk’

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Labour MPs already angry over claim Mandelson's appointment was 'worth the risk'

If you want to know why so many Labour MPs are seething over the government’s response to the Mandelson saga, look no further than my mobile phone at 9.12am this Sunday.

At the top of the screen is a news notification about an interview with the family of a victim of the notorious paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, saying his close friend Peter Mandelson should “never have been made” US ambassador.

Directly below that, a Sky News notification on the business secretary’s interview, explaining that the appointment of Lord Mandelson to the job was judged to be “worth the risk” at the time.

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Peter Kyle went on to praise Lord Mandelson’s “outstanding” and “singular” talents and the benefits that he could bring to the US-UK relationship.

While perhaps surprisingly candid in nature about the decision-making process that goes on in government, this interview is unlikely to calm concerns within Labour.

Quite the opposite.

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For many in the party, this is a wholly different debate to a simple cost-benefit calculation of potential political harm.

As one long-time party figure put it to my colleague Sam Coates: “I don’t care about Number Ten or what this means for Keir or any of that as much as I care that this culture of turning a blind eye to horrendous behaviour is endemic at the top of society and Peter Kyle has literally just come out and said it out loud.

“He was too talented and the special relationship too fraught for his misdeeds to matter enough. It’s just disgusting.”

There are two problems for Downing Street here.

The first is that you now have a government which – after being elected on the promise to restore high standards – appears to be admitting that previous indiscretions can be overlooked if the cause is important enough.

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Government deeming Mandelson to be ‘worth the risk’ is unlikely to calm Labour MPs

Package that up with other scandals that have resulted in departures – Louise Haigh, Tulip Siddiq, Angela Rayner – and you start to get a stink that becomes hard to shift.

The second is that it once again demonstrates an apparent lack of ability in government to see around corners and deal with political and policy crises, before they start knocking lumps out of the Prime Minister.

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Sir Keir Starmer is facing questions over the appointment and subsequent sacking of Lord Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US.

Remember, for many the cardinal sin here was not necessarily the original appointment of Mandelson (while eyebrows were raised at the time, there was nowhere near the scale of outrage we’ve had in the last week with many career diplomats even agreeing the with logic of the choice) but the fact that Sir Keir Starmer walked into PMQs and gave the ambassador his full-throated backing when it was becoming clear to many around Westminster that he simply wouldn’t be able to stay in post.

The explanation from Downing Street is essentially that a process was playing out, and you shouldn’t sack an ambassador based on a media enquiry alone.

But good process doesn’t always align with good politics.

Something this barrister-turned-politician may now be finding out the hard way.

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Man admits arson after major fire at MP Sharon Hodgson’s constituency office

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Man admits arson after major fire at MP Sharon Hodgson's constituency office

A man has admitted arson after a major fire at an MP’s constituency office.

Joshua Oliver, 28, pleaded guilty to starting the fire which destroyed the office of Labour MP Sharon Hodgson, at Vermont House in Washington, Tyne and Wear.

The fire also wrecked a small charity for people with very rare genetic diseases and an NHS mental health service for veterans.

The guilty plea was entered at Newcastle Magistrates’ Court on the basis that it was reckless rather than intentional.

Hodgson, who has been an MP since 2005, winning her seat again in 2019. Pic: Reuters
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Hodgson, who has been an MP since 2005, winning her seat again in 2019. Pic: Reuters

The Crown did not accept that basis of plea.

Oliver, of no fixed address, had been living in a tent nearby, the court heard.

Northumbria Police previously said it was “alerted to a fire at a premises on Woodland Terrace in the Washington area” shortly after 12.20am on Thursday.

“Emergency services attended and no one is reported to have been injured in the incident,” it added.

Drone footage from the scene showed extensive damage to the building.

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A spokesperson for the Crown Prosecution Service said: “Our prosecutors have worked to establish that there is sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial and that it is in the public interest to pursue criminal proceedings.

“We have worked closely with Northumbria Police as they carried out their investigation.”

Oliver was remanded in custody and will appear at Newcastle Crown Court on Tuesday, 14 October.

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