These by-election results could be consequential and dramatic – here’s why
It has been a stonking night for Labour – winning two more by-elections in safe Conservative seats on substantial swings.
The momentum of last year’s gains in Tamworth, Selby and Ainsty, and Mid Bedfordshire, which some in the party had feared would stall, has continued to accelerate in the first tests of the general election year.
Tories crash to new postwar low with double defeat – live updates
Of course, by-elections can deliver fireworks that do not directly translate into general election results, but these polls appear dramatic and consequential.
First, because they show British politics has turned on its head in just three years.
Here is a number to show the scale of the tumult – in May 2021, less than three years ago, a seemingly unassailable Boris Johnson took his party into a by-election in Hartlepool and won the seat from Labour with the biggest increase in vote share to a governing party since 1945.
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Labour’s Gen Kitchen spoke to the media following her Wellingborough by-election victory
Tories expected defeat – but not on this scale
Overnight in Wellingborough, a safe Tory seat with an 18,500 majority barely on Labour’s campaign radar until a few months ago, was won on a swing of 28.5%.
The second-biggest swing since 1945 and the largest-ever drop in Tory vote share.
It had been at number 226 on Labour’s target list.
Senior Conservatives I spoke to in the final 24 hours of campaigning had predicted a double defeat, but not one on this scale.
They had hoped to hold on to 60% of their vote and that the swing would be less dramatic than in Tamworth and Selby at almost 24%.
In fact, in Wellingborough it far exceeded that swing, and vote share collapsed.
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‘Honeymoon will wait’ for new Labour MP
Uniquely cursed contests – or potentially terminal?
The picture was better in Kingswood, but the worry in Conservative HQ is that however you cut it, this looks potentially terminal.
The Conservatives will say today these contests were uniquely cursed.
In Wellingborough, they had a soap opera with the long-serving MP Peter Bone, who was found to have bullied and exposed himself to a member of staff, allegations he denies. His partner Helen Harrison was running in his place; leading the national party to keep its distance from this campaign.
In Kingswood, the MP Chris Skidmore who was standing down anyway, triggered a by-election that Tories didn’t need over net zero policy – in a seat which is being abolished in boundary changes.
Tory MPs did not hold back on their anger about it – and voters were telling Labour campaigners they didn’t understand “what the bloody point of this is”, as one MP reported back.
Even with that, Labour overturned an 11,000 majority with a swing of 16 points.
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Labour wins Kingswood by-election
Threats from the left and the right
Sir Keir Starmer, jubilant after a difficult couple of weeks, which still raise ongoing questions about his judgement, said the contests show people “want change” and “Conservative voters are switching directly to this changed Labour Party”.
There is another subplot to this by-election which is the rise of the Reform Party, which achieved its best results at 10% in Kingswood and 13% in Wellingborough.
In the former, that’s enough votes that if they had gone to the Conservatives instead, they would have claimed victory.
Jacob Rees-Mogg was quick to tell Sky News, it is time to “unite the Conservative family” by bringing them into the fold.
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Rees-Mogg speaks to Sky after Kingswood loss
Reform’s impact should not be overstated – the party’s forerunner UKIP used to win by-elections outright; and both Labour and the Conservative accuse the party of underperforming in this contest.
But leader Richard Tice has vowed not to do any deals to unite the right-wing vote and that presents a challenge.
The Conservatives were worried – putting out literature in Wellingborough, seen by Sky News, specifically targeting Reform voters.
And they may not want to help Rishi Sunak, with polling by YouGov and others suggesting far from all of Reform voters will return to the Conservatives at general election time.
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Reform candidate speaks to Jon Craig
Bad sign for general election
All this presents the prime minister with a terrible backdrop for the final few months before the election – with few opportunities to change the narrative, although the forthcoming Budget is one.
More of his internal critics could raise their heads above the parapet to call for a shift in strategy – or even leadership – after weeks of grumbling by critics of his Rwanda policy.
The parties will pick over the numbers in the coming hours and days, in particular on the question of how many voters were direct switchers from the Tories to Labour.
But as the choice in the general election looms, it’s another hammering which confirms Labour’s momentum.
And one which exposes another difficult front for the Conservatives on their right flank. Conservative MPs are unlikely to write it off as a bad day at the office.
Politics
‘Shy’ Reform voters in Labour areas led to Farage’s party winning by-election, Harriet Harman says
“Shy” Reform voters in Labour areas led to Nigel Farage’s party winning the Runcorn by-election by just six votes, Labour peer Harriet Harman said.
The Runcorn and Helsby seat, created in 2024, went to Reform UK’s Sarah Pochin who defeated Labour candidate Karen Shore by six votes.
Reform overturned a 34.8% majority gained by former Labour MP Mike Amesbury last year before he stood down earlier this year after he punched a constituent on a night out.
It is the closest by-election result since records began in 1945.
Read more: Badenoch apologises to Tory councillors
Labour peer and former minister Baroness Harman told Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast: “If we’d have known it was so close, I, myself, would have gone on extra time there and got those six votes.
“So, there’s a real level of frustration and I’m sure there’ll be a post-mortem, but I think there’s a lot of talk about shy Reform voters in Labour areas.”
In the local elections, running at the same time, the Conservatives lost control of all 18 councils it was contesting, with Reform taking eight of those.
The party also won two of the six mayoral contests – Reform’s first two mayors.
Harriet Harman on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast
Baroness Harman said Labour now has “got to get on with delivering on the health service” and pointed out the minimum wage increase and breakfast clubs are only just being rolled out.
But she said the government also needs “more of a story” instead of just telling people to “bear with us” while it fixes what the Conservatives did.
“It seems to be that Farage has got no delivery, as yet, and all the story, whereas the government is really getting on with delivery, but it hasn’t got a big enough story about what that fits,” she said.
Read more: Reform’s political earthquake is now shaking our political system
An installation represents a bus stop during Reform UK’s local elections campaign launch in Birmingham. Pic: Reuters
She added that “Blue Labour” MPs – a socially Conservative wing of the Labour Party – “will be emboldened to press for further action” on issues like immigration, which they want to see a tougher stance on.
“There’s been grumbling about the big salience of the concerns of the winter fuel payment, but I don’t see there being any change on that,” she said.
Baroness Harman said she does not think the by-election and local election results were “utterly predictable” and will not lead to any splits or instability within the party.
Kemi Badenoch has apologised to Tory councillors who lost their seats after Reform made massive gains at the Conservatives’ expense in Thursday’s local elections.
The Conservative leader said she knew it was “disappointing” and that she was “sincerely sorry”, but added: “We are going to win those seats back – that is my job now.”
The Tories lost overall control of all 18 councils they had been in charge of that were up for election. There were 23 councils in the race in total.
Politics latest: Sky News analysis shows Reform surge in estimated national vote
A particularly bad loss was Buckinghamshire, which has been under Tory control since 1973 when local government was reorganised. The Conservatives lost overall control by just one seat after losing 29 seats.
Reform, which has never run in local elections before, gained eight councils from the Tories, one that had no overall control previously and one from Labour – the only Labour council up for grabs in this election.
Nigel Farage with the new Runcorn and Helsby MP Sarah Pochin. Pic: Reuters
The Lib Dems won Shropshire from the Tories, as well as Cambridgeshire and Oxfordshire – both of which had no overall control before.
The Conservatives had one win, with Paul Bristow being voted in as Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayor, previously held by Labour.
Reform’s first major win of the election was the Runcorn and Helsby by-election where Labour lost to Reform by six votes. It was triggered by ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigning after his conviction for punching a constituent.
Sir Keir Starmer said he “gets” why his party suffered defeat there and the results show “we must deliver that change ever more quickly, we must go even further”.
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Tories suffer heavy defeats
Addressing the Conservatives’ abysmal results, Ms Badenoch said: “Other parties may be winning now, but we are going to show that we can deliver and that we are on course and recovering.
“But they [the public] are still not yet ready to trust us,” she added.
“We have a big job to do to rebuild trust with the public.
“That’s the job that the Conservative Party has given me, and I’m going to make sure that we get ourselves back to the place where we are seen as being a credible alternative to Labour.”
Read more:
Reform’s political earthquake is now shaking our political system
Reform wins two new mayoral contests
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Farage: ‘This is Reform-quake’
Ms Badenoch said Labour’s election results showed Sir Keir Starmer “is on course to be a one-term prime minister”.
However, when asked if she would still be leader at the next general election, Ms Badenoch dodged the question and said: “I’m not playing all these questions that the media loves to ask about my future.
“This is not about me.”
She insisted she was the right person to lead the Conservatives, as she was chosen by the party’s members.
“I told them it wouldn’t be easy, I told them it would require a renewal and rebuilding of our party,” she said.
“That doesn’t happen in six months. I’m trying to do something that no one has ever done before, which is take their party from such a historic defeat back into government in one term.”
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