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It has been a stonking night for Labour – winning two more by-elections in safe Conservative seats on substantial swings.

The momentum of last year’s gains in Tamworth, Selby and Ainsty, and Mid Bedfordshire, which some in the party had feared would stall, has continued to accelerate in the first tests of the general election year.

Tories crash to new postwar low with double defeat – live updates

Of course, by-elections can deliver fireworks that do not directly translate into general election results, but these polls appear dramatic and consequential.

First, because they show British politics has turned on its head in just three years.

Here is a number to show the scale of the tumult – in May 2021, less than three years ago, a seemingly unassailable Boris Johnson took his party into a by-election in Hartlepool and won the seat from Labour with the biggest increase in vote share to a governing party since 1945.

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Labour’s Gen Kitchen spoke to the media following her Wellingborough by-election victory

Tories expected defeat – but not on this scale

Overnight in Wellingborough, a safe Tory seat with an 18,500 majority barely on Labour’s campaign radar until a few months ago, was won on a swing of 28.5%.

The second-biggest swing since 1945 and the largest-ever drop in Tory vote share.

It had been at number 226 on Labour’s target list.

Senior Conservatives I spoke to in the final 24 hours of campaigning had predicted a double defeat, but not one on this scale.

They had hoped to hold on to 60% of their vote and that the swing would be less dramatic than in Tamworth and Selby at almost 24%.

In fact, in Wellingborough it far exceeded that swing, and vote share collapsed.

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‘Honeymoon will wait’ for new Labour MP

Uniquely cursed contests – or potentially terminal?

The picture was better in Kingswood, but the worry in Conservative HQ is that however you cut it, this looks potentially terminal.

The Conservatives will say today these contests were uniquely cursed.

In Wellingborough, they had a soap opera with the long-serving MP Peter Bone, who was found to have bullied and exposed himself to a member of staff, allegations he denies. His partner Helen Harrison was running in his place; leading the national party to keep its distance from this campaign.

In Kingswood, the MP Chris Skidmore who was standing down anyway, triggered a by-election that Tories didn’t need over net zero policy – in a seat which is being abolished in boundary changes.

Tory MPs did not hold back on their anger about it – and voters were telling Labour campaigners they didn’t understand “what the bloody point of this is”, as one MP reported back.

Even with that, Labour overturned an 11,000 majority with a swing of 16 points.

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Labour wins Kingswood by-election

Threats from the left and the right

Sir Keir Starmer, jubilant after a difficult couple of weeks, which still raise ongoing questions about his judgement, said the contests show people “want change” and “Conservative voters are switching directly to this changed Labour Party”.

There is another subplot to this by-election which is the rise of the Reform Party, which achieved its best results at 10% in Kingswood and 13% in Wellingborough.

In the former, that’s enough votes that if they had gone to the Conservatives instead, they would have claimed victory.

Jacob Rees-Mogg was quick to tell Sky News, it is time to “unite the Conservative family” by bringing them into the fold.

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Rees-Mogg speaks to Sky after Kingswood loss

Reform’s impact should not be overstated – the party’s forerunner UKIP used to win by-elections outright; and both Labour and the Conservative accuse the party of underperforming in this contest.

But leader Richard Tice has vowed not to do any deals to unite the right-wing vote and that presents a challenge.

The Conservatives were worried – putting out literature in Wellingborough, seen by Sky News, specifically targeting Reform voters.

And they may not want to help Rishi Sunak, with polling by YouGov and others suggesting far from all of Reform voters will return to the Conservatives at general election time.

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Reform candidate speaks to Jon Craig

Bad sign for general election

All this presents the prime minister with a terrible backdrop for the final few months before the election – with few opportunities to change the narrative, although the forthcoming Budget is one.

More of his internal critics could raise their heads above the parapet to call for a shift in strategy – or even leadership – after weeks of grumbling by critics of his Rwanda policy.

The parties will pick over the numbers in the coming hours and days, in particular on the question of how many voters were direct switchers from the Tories to Labour.

But as the choice in the general election looms, it’s another hammering which confirms Labour’s momentum.

And one which exposes another difficult front for the Conservatives on their right flank. Conservative MPs are unlikely to write it off as a bad day at the office.

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Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

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Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

Former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao will begin advising the Kyrgyz Republic on blockchain and crypto-related regulation and tech after signing a memorandum of understanding with the country’s foreign investment agency.

“I officially and unofficially advise a few governments on their crypto regulatory frameworks and blockchain solutions for gov efficiency, expanding blockchain to more than trading,” the crypto entrepreneur said in an April 3 X post, adding that he finds this work “extremely meaningful.”

His comments came in response to an earlier X post from Kyrgyzstan President Sadyr Zhaparov announcing that Kyrgyzstan’s National Investment Agency (NIA) had signed a memorandum with CZ to provide technical expertise and consulting services for the Central Asian country.

The NIA is responsible for promoting foreign investments and assisting international companies in identifying business opportunities within the country.

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

Source: Changpeng Zhao

“This cooperation marks an important step towards strengthening technological infrastructure, implementing innovative solutions, and preparing highly qualified specialists in blockchain technologies, virtual asset management, and cybersecurity,” Zhaparov said.

The Kyrgyzstan president added: “such initiatives are crucial for the sustainable growth of the economy and the security of virtual assets, ultimately generating new opportunities for businesses and society as a whole.”

Kyrgyzstan, which officially changed its name from the Republic of Kyrgyzstan to the Kyrgyz Republic in 1993, is a mountainous, land-locked country.

It is considered well-suited for crypto mining operations due to its abundant renewable energy resources, much of which is underutilized.

Over 30% of Kyrgyzstan’s total energy supply comes from hydroelectric power plants, but only 10% of the country’s potential hydropower has been developed, according to a report by the International Energy Agency.

CZ has met with several other state officials in Asia

Malaysia also recently tapped CZ for guidance on crypto-related matters, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim meeting him personally in January.

CZ has also met with officials in the UAE and Bitcoin-stacking country Bhutan — however, it isn’t clear what those meetings entailed.

Related: Is Bitcoin’s future in circular economies or national reserves?

CZ’s latest pursuits come a little over six months after he was released from a four-month prison sentence in the US for violating several anti-money laundering laws.

Since being released, CZ has made investments in blockchain tech, artificial intelligence and biotechnology companies.

CZ also recently donated 1,000 BNB (BNB) — worth almost $600,000 — to support earthquake relief efforts in Thailand and Myanmar after the natural disaster in late April.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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Trump has acted for his country, I will act in Britain’s interests, says Starmer

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Trump's tariffs are about something more than economics: power

Donald Trump has acted for his country and I will act in Britain’s interests, Sir Keir Starmer has said after the US president imposed 10% tariffs on UK goods.

The prime minister told business chiefs at an early morning meeting in Downing Street: “Last night the president of the United States acted for his country, and that is his mandate.

“Today, I will act in Britain’s interests with mine.”

Politics latest: Starmer says UK will react to tariffs with ‘cool and calm head’

Mr Trump announced sweeping tariffs on countries around the world, with the UK getting off relatively lightly with 10% tariffs – branded “kind reciprocal” by the president – compared with China, which will have to pay 54% tariffs and 20% for the EU.

A previously announced 25% tariff on British car imports to the US came into effect at 5am on Thursday.

Sir Keir said the government is moving “to the next stage of our plan” after negotiations failed to fend off any tariffs ahead of Wednesday’s announcement.

More on Donald Trump

He promised any decisions “will be guided only by our national interest, in the interests of our economy, in the interests of businesses around this table, in the interests of putting money in the pockets of working people”.

Keir Starmer hosts a meeting with business leaders in 10 Downing Street following the announcement of tariffs by US President Donald Trump.
Pic: Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer hosted business leaders in Downing Street on Thursday morning. Pic: Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street

“Clearly, there will be an economic impact from the decisions the US has taken, both here and globally,” he told the business leaders.

“But I want to be crystal clear: we are prepared, indeed one of the great strengths of this nation is our ability to keep a cool head.”

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told the Commons on Thursday the government is considering retaliatory measures and requested British businesses let him know what the tariff implications will be for them.

An “indicative list of potential products” that could be targeted was later published, with 8,364 categories covering about 27% of UK imports from the US.

Earlier, Mr Reynolds told Wilfred Frost on Sky News Breakfast his “job is not done” when it comes to negotiating a trade deal

Mr Reynolds refused to say if the tariffs might cause a global recession and said the UK has safeguards in place to ensure it is not flooded with goods that would have gone to other countries.

“We’ll take any powers we need to protect the British people and the British economy from that,” he said.

“What we have directly within our power, alongside that is, of course, the ability to negotiate a better deal in the national interest for the UK. That’s been our approach to date and we’ll continue with that.”

Read more:
World reacts to Trump’s tariff announcement
Tariffs will have consequences for globalisation, the US economy and geopolitics
Trump’s tariffs explained

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Moment Trump unveils tariffs chart

UK will be template for other nations’ deals

The business secretary also suggested if the UK is successful in negotiating a deal with the US “there’ll be a template there” for other countries to “resolve some of these issues”.

He reiterated statements he and the PM have made over the past few days as he said: “America is a friend, America’s our principal ally.

“Our relationship is an incredibly strong economic one, but also a security one, a political one as well.”

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Sky’s Ed Conway examines how economies across the world are impacted by tariffs

Government ‘very slow’ to start talks

Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Sky News the government had been “very slow” to start negotiating a free trade agreement with the US, and they should have started when Mr Trump was elected in November, even though he did not get sworn in until the end of January.

He said the UK being hit by a lower tariff than the EU was “one of the benefits of Brexit”.

However, he said the 25% tariff on car exports to the US is “very, very serious” and the global impact is “bad news for our economy”.

Relief in Westminster – but concessions to Trump to come

It has been quite a rollercoaster for the government, where they went from the hope that they could avoid tariffs, that they could get that economic deal, to the realisation that was not going to happen, and then the anticipation of how hard would the UK be hit.

In Westminster tonight, there is actual relief because the UK is going to have a 10% baseline tariff – but that is the least onerous of all the tariffs we saw President Trump announce.

He held up a chart of the worst offenders, and the UK was well at the bottom of that list.

No 10 sources were telling me as President Trump was in the Rose Garden that while no tariffs are good, and it’s not what they want, the fact the UK has tariffs that are lower than others vindicates their approach.

They say it’s important because the difference between a 20% tariff and a 10% tariff is thousands of jobs.

Where to next? No 10 says it will “keep negotiating, keep cool and calm”, and reiterated Sir Keir Starmer’s desire to “negotiate a sustainable trade deal”.

“Of course want to get tariffs lowered. Tomorrow we will continue with that work,” a source added.

Another source said the 10% tariff shows that “the UK is in the friendlies club, as much as that is worth anything”.

Overnight, people will be number-crunching, trying to work out what it means for the UK. There is a 25% tariff on cars which could hit billions in UK exports, in addition to the blanket 10% tariff.

But despite this being lower than many other countries, GDP will take a hit, with forecasts being downgraded probably as we speak.

I think the government’s approach will be to not retaliate and try to speed up that economic deal in the hope that they can lower the tariffs even further.

There will be concessions. For example, the UK could lower the Digital Services Tax, which is imposed on the UK profits of tech giants. Will they loosen regulation on social media companies or agricultural products?

But for now, there is relief the UK has not been hit as hard as many others.

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Trump’s tariffs will have an impact before too long – but how will the UK respond?

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Trump's tariffs will have an impact before too long – but how will the UK respond?

The list has landed.

More than 400 pages of thousands of goods that could be affected by reciprocal tariffs against the US.

Everything from fresh domestic ducks to sea-going dredgers makes the cut; most symbolic, however, are iconic American items like jeans, motorcycles and whiskey.

Would Donald Trump stand for a levy on Levi’s? It’s not the first time this battle has played out.

When the US president announced tariffs on steel and aluminium in his first term, the EU responded with its own – including a symbolic 25% tax on American whiskey.

At the time, the UK, then an EU member, followed suit.

But as the UK tries to carve its own path outside the bloc, vindicated by the baseline 10% tariffs imposed instead of the EU’s rate of 20%, the aim is to avoid retaliation.

The government want us to know “all options are on the table” – but that is not how they want this to play out.

“This is not a short-term tactical exercise,” the prime minister said this morning.

Despite the business secretary’s best efforts during his recent trip to Washington to try to secure a UK tariffs carveout, no deal was reached in time.

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How will tariffs hit working people?

Mr Trump wanted his big bang, board brandishing moment; carveouts for certain countries would have softened the impact of his speech.

But with 90-plus countries on the tariff billboard, how far along the queue is any UK deal?

And how much are we willing to give? Will the sensitive subject of chlorinated chicken be on the table? What of the agreement to cut taxes on big tech companies that Mr Trump wants?

Lots of questions. The day after the surreal night before is too soon to know all the answers, but this is about politics as much as it is about economics.

Read more:
There were no winners from Trump’s tariff gameshow
Do Trump’s numbers on tariffs really add up?

As the prime minister launched Labour’s local election campaign in Derbyshire today, he talked about potholes, high streets and school meals. Every question I heard was about tariffs.

Decisions made across the Atlantic are looming large. Tariffs may not directly sway many votes in the local elections, but the consequences for Rachel Reeves’s fiscal headroom and the amount of money she has to spend, or save, will have an impact before too long.

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