This week’s two by-elections had something for everyone – except Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has now broken into the record books with six by-election gains from the Conservatives, beating New Labour’s performance in the run-up to the 1997 Election.
Reform UK got more than 10% of the votes in both constituencies.
The Liberal Democratslost two deposits, with less than 5% of votes cast each time. But even they have something to celebrate, according to one polling analyst.
Peter Kellner argues that their four by-election victories over the Tories since 2019 show that they are much better at concentrating their vote than they used to be – when they regularly clocked up 10% plus support across the country with nothing to show for it.
Reform could be falling into a similar trap with significant minority support spread nationwide, enough to damage the Conservatives without a sniff of winning a seat.
Image: Damien Egan won the Kingswood by-election for Labour.
Pic: Reuters
Image: Labour’s Gen Kitchen celebrates after being declared winner in the Wellingborough by-election. Pic: PA
No wonder Nigel Farage is talking about “uniting the centre-right vote” of Conservatives and Reform, without committing himself personally to fight in the approaching general election.
Jacob Rees-Mogg has taken up the call for the two right-wing groupings to come together.
Conservative MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns has leapt on the by-election defeats in Kingswood and Wellingborough to renew her call for Sunak to be replaced.
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The prime minister must be wondering why his MPs keep inflicting damage on their party through their own behaviour.
All six of Labour’s by-election gains were precipitated by voluntary or forced resignations by Conservative MPs.
Image: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reacts to last week’s by-election results
The tables will be turned in the next by-election in just 10 days’ time, when Labour is defending the constituency of Rochdale in Lancashire and the party is certain to be the victim of a technical knock-out because it no longer has a candidate.
Starmer’s discomfort in Rochdale and the continued agony of political death by many by-election cuts explain why there is growing speculation that the prime minister may call the general election sooner rather than later in the year, as he has suggested.
Rochdale is an unholy mess for Labour, which exposes one of the most painful divisions in the party.
Labour has held the seat since 2005. Tony Lloyd, who died last month, held it in 2019 with more than half the votes cast.
In its haste to make the best of a sure thing, Labour rushed to hold the vote to find a replacement MP.
Azhar Ali, a local council big wig, was chosen quickly as the Labour candidate. Too quickly, it turns out.
Image: Labour’s former candidate for Rochdale, Azhar Ali. Pic: PA
The Mail on Sunday and then The Daily Mail exposed comments about the Israel-Gaza conflict which he had made at Labour gatherings, in clear violation of party policy.
Ali had embraced conspiracy theories that Israel allowed the 7 October attacks to happen and made accusations about Jewish influence in the media.
He later issued an “unreserved” apology, saying the comments were “deeply offensive, ignorant, and false”.
After an agonising weekend when Labour leaders tried to keep Ali as their official candidate, he was cut loose along with the candidate in neighbouring Hyndburn for similar comments.
It is easy to see why Starmer was reluctant to act. Nominations for the Rochdale by-election had closed.
Labour was stuck with Ali on the ballot paper as their candidate, come what may. It was too late to select a substitute.
Labour must sit it out for the remainder of the campaign, as Ali presses on as an independent. If he wins, he will not receive the Labour whip.
This will automatically exclude him from being the Labour candidate at the approaching general election.
The party leadership could then impose Paul Waugh as the Labour candidate.
In a move which surprised many, Waugh gave up a career as a top political journalist to stand for selection in this by-election – unsuccessfully as it turned out.
This awkward outcome is probably the best that Labour can hope for.
Two controversial ex-Labour MPs are also standing in the by-election.
Simon Danczuk won Rochdale for Labour in 2010 and then 2015. But he was suspended from the party shortly afterwards for sexting a 17-year-old girl. This time, Danczuk is standing for Reform UK.
The candidacy of George Galloway is of much greater concern.
Image: George Galloway. File pic: PA
Since his first election in 1987, Galloway has been an MP in four constituencies: Glasgow Hillhead/Kelvin for Labour, and Bethnal Green & Bow, and Bradford West, for the Respect Party.
Galloway is pugnacious and articulate, and he specialises in fighting highly charged by-elections.
He is highly litigious and willing to take on his critics. He takes a close interest in the Middle East and is pro-Palestinian.
There have been allegations of antisemitism against him – claims he has strongly denied and even once labelled “outrageous”.
Roughly a third of the population in Rochdale has a Muslim background. As Ali’s comments showed, the Israel-Gaza conflict has already inflamed passions.
Opinion polls show that a clear majority of the British public does not take sides in the current conflict.
Of the remainder, around 20% each sympathise with Israel and the Palestinians. But the balance among Labour activists favours the Palestinians.
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0:40
Starmer: ‘People want change’
Rooting out the antisemitism which characterised Labour during Jeremy Corbyn’s far-left leadership is one of Starmer’s signal achievements.
Rough justice has meant that figures such as Corbyn, Diane Abbott and now Ali have been kicked out of the party.
But tensions have mounted as Israel’s high-casualty counteroffensive continues.
In the past, Labour has benefitted from strong support in British Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. In a handful of constituencies, this has been decisive.
Starmer is not pleasing many in his party by lining its Middle East policy up close to the government’s own position.
The Conservatives certainly are not going to give him any credit for backing them up.
Even without the divisive return of Galloway, Conservatives are already saying that the developments in Rochdale reveal that it is the same old Labour Party underneath, for all the changes supposedly wrought by Starmer.
Rochdale means chronic by-election pain for Starmer. There is no end to agony in sight for Sunakeither.
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3:17
How Labour’s latest row unfolded
There is another by-election in the offing in Lancashire in the marginal constituency of Blackpool South
The Commons Standards Committee has recommended a potentially by-election-triggering 35-day suspension for the Conservative MP Scott Benton over lobbying and corruption allegations.
Voters do not like by-elections in grubby circumstances. They are inclined to punish the incumbent, but the reputation of all politics takes a hit.
The excuses Sunak gave this weekend for the Tory defeats in Kingswood and Wellingborough do not stand up.
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With the general election imminent, these were not “midterm by-elections”. Nor was turnout exceptionally low for such contests. The exception was the massive scale of the drop in the Conservative vote.
The quickest way to make it stop would be to call that general election.
In the past few days, keen observers report an upsurge in activity by those involved in running the Tory campaign.
While Starmer is mired in Rochdale, a giveaway budget on 6 March as the springboard to a May election must remain a distinct possibility – before it gets any worse.
JD Vance has said he does not want the UK to go down a “very dark path” of losing free speech during a meeting with the foreign secretary at his country estate.
The US vice president has previously raised concerns that free speech is being eroded in the UK.
However, during a two-day visit to David Lammy’s grace and favour 115-room mansion, Chevening House in Kent, Mr Vance kept his criticism a bit more low key.
Asked about free speech in the UK during a televised meeting of the two men, Mr Vance said he has “raised concerns” about free speech in his own country and accused the West of “censoring rather than engaging” with different opinions.
He said: “I think the entire collective West, the transatlantic relationship, our NATO allies, certainly the United States under the Biden administration, got a little too comfortable with censoring rather than engaging with a diverse array of opinions. So that’s been my view.
“Obviously, I’ve raised some criticism, concerns about our friends on this side of the Atlantic.
“But the thing that I’d say to the people of England or anybody else, to David, is many of the things that I worry most about were happening in the United States from 2020 to 2024.
“I just don’t want other countries to follow us down what I think was a very dark path under the Biden administration.”
Mr Lammy, who has struck up the unlikely relationship over the past few months, did not comment on Mr Vance’s indirect criticism.
Image: The two politicians went fishing on the Chevening estate. Pic: Reuters
Image: Mr Vance revealed he caught a few fish but Mr Lammy was not so successful. Pic: Reuters
In February, when Sir Keir Starmer was carrying out a similar televised meeting with Donald Trump in the Oval Office, Mr Vance said “infringements on free speech” now do not just affect the British, but also American tech companies – “and by extension American citizens”.
Sir Keir quickly interjected, saying: “We’ve had free speech for a very long time, it will last a long time, and we are very proud of that.”
Mr Vance and his family are staying with Mr Lammy at Chevening for two days before heading to the Cotswolds for a summer holiday.
The vice president was effusive in his praise for the grand estate that comes with Mr Lammy’s job, saying “being here lifts up the human spirit” as he thanked the “people of England” for having such a “beautiful place for foreigners like me to come and talk about the issues of the day”.
The two politicians went fishing ahead of their meeting, with Mr Vance revealing he caught a few, while all three of his children caught a fish but Mr Lammy did not.
He also said his children had fallen asleep on the floor of the large house, and his three-year-old daughter kept asking if she would see Mr Lammy’s daughter.
Mr Lammy posted a picture of him and Mr Vance laughing as they fished, saying it was a “real pleasure” to welcome the Vance family and the vice president “gave me fishing tips, Kentucky style”.
JD Vance confirmed he will holiday in Scotland next week in a trip that could see up to 1,000 police officers deployed as part of security efforts.
He confirmed his Scottish trip during talks with Mr Lammy on Friday.
Sky News understands the Vance family are likely to visit Ayrshire, the same area where Mr Trump recently stayed where he secured a trade deal with the European Union.
Police sources have suggested approximately 1,000 officers will be working across the visit to ensure the vice president and his loved ones are safe, Sky News’ Scotland correspondent Conner Gillies reported.
Police Scotland declined to comment on the specifics.
It is understood the Vance family will not be staying at Trump Turnberry, the luxury Ayrshire resort owned by the US president himself.
A Police Scotland spokesperson said: “Planning is under way for a potential visit to Scotland by the vice president of the United States.
“Details of any visit would be for the White House to comment on, however it is important that we prepare in advance for what would be a significant policing operation.”