This week’s two by-elections had something for everyone – except Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has now broken into the record books with six by-election gains from the Conservatives, beating New Labour’s performance in the run-up to the 1997 Election.
Reform UK got more than 10% of the votes in both constituencies.
The Liberal Democratslost two deposits, with less than 5% of votes cast each time. But even they have something to celebrate, according to one polling analyst.
Peter Kellner argues that their four by-election victories over the Tories since 2019 show that they are much better at concentrating their vote than they used to be – when they regularly clocked up 10% plus support across the country with nothing to show for it.
Reform could be falling into a similar trap with significant minority support spread nationwide, enough to damage the Conservatives without a sniff of winning a seat.
No wonder Nigel Farage is talking about “uniting the centre-right vote” of Conservatives and Reform, without committing himself personally to fight in the approaching general election.
Jacob Rees-Mogg has taken up the call for the two right-wing groupings to come together.
Conservative MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns has leapt on the by-election defeats in Kingswood and Wellingborough to renew her call for Sunak to be replaced.
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The prime minister must be wondering why his MPs keep inflicting damage on their party through their own behaviour.
All six of Labour’s by-election gains were precipitated by voluntary or forced resignations by Conservative MPs.
The tables will be turned in the next by-election in just 10 days’ time, when Labour is defending the constituency of Rochdale in Lancashire and the party is certain to be the victim of a technical knock-out because it no longer has a candidate.
Starmer’s discomfort in Rochdale and the continued agony of political death by many by-election cuts explain why there is growing speculation that the prime minister may call the general election sooner rather than later in the year, as he has suggested.
Rochdale is an unholy mess for Labour, which exposes one of the most painful divisions in the party.
Labour has held the seat since 2005. Tony Lloyd, who died last month, held it in 2019 with more than half the votes cast.
In its haste to make the best of a sure thing, Labour rushed to hold the vote to find a replacement MP.
Azhar Ali, a local council big wig, was chosen quickly as the Labour candidate. Too quickly, it turns out.
The Mail on Sunday and then The Daily Mail exposed comments about the Israel-Gaza conflict which he had made at Labour gatherings, in clear violation of party policy.
Ali had embraced conspiracy theories that Israel allowed the 7 October attacks to happen and made accusations about Jewish influence in the media.
He later issued an “unreserved” apology, saying the comments were “deeply offensive, ignorant, and false”.
After an agonising weekend when Labour leaders tried to keep Ali as their official candidate, he was cut loose along with the candidate in neighbouring Hyndburn for similar comments.
It is easy to see why Starmer was reluctant to act. Nominations for the Rochdale by-election had closed.
Labour was stuck with Ali on the ballot paper as their candidate, come what may. It was too late to select a substitute.
Labour must sit it out for the remainder of the campaign, as Ali presses on as an independent. If he wins, he will not receive the Labour whip.
This will automatically exclude him from being the Labour candidate at the approaching general election.
The party leadership could then impose Paul Waugh as the Labour candidate.
In a move which surprised many, Waugh gave up a career as a top political journalist to stand for selection in this by-election – unsuccessfully as it turned out.
This awkward outcome is probably the best that Labour can hope for.
Two controversial ex-Labour MPs are also standing in the by-election.
Simon Danczuk won Rochdale for Labour in 2010 and then 2015. But he was suspended from the party shortly afterwards for sexting a 17-year-old girl. This time, Danczuk is standing for Reform UK.
The candidacy of George Galloway is of much greater concern.
Since his first election in 1987, Galloway has been an MP in four constituencies: Glasgow Hillhead/Kelvin for Labour, and Bethnal Green & Bow, and Bradford West, for the Respect Party.
Galloway is pugnacious and articulate, and he specialises in fighting highly charged by-elections.
He is highly litigious and willing to take on his critics. He takes a close interest in the Middle East and is pro-Palestinian.
There have been allegations of antisemitism against him – claims he has strongly denied and even once labelled “outrageous”.
Roughly a third of the population in Rochdale has a Muslim background. As Ali’s comments showed, the Israel-Gaza conflict has already inflamed passions.
Opinion polls show that a clear majority of the British public does not take sides in the current conflict.
Of the remainder, around 20% each sympathise with Israel and the Palestinians. But the balance among Labour activists favours the Palestinians.
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0:40
Starmer: ‘People want change’
Rooting out the antisemitism which characterised Labour during Jeremy Corbyn’s far-left leadership is one of Starmer’s signal achievements.
Rough justice has meant that figures such as Corbyn, Diane Abbott and now Ali have been kicked out of the party.
But tensions have mounted as Israel’s high-casualty counteroffensive continues.
In the past, Labour has benefitted from strong support in British Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. In a handful of constituencies, this has been decisive.
Starmer is not pleasing many in his party by lining its Middle East policy up close to the government’s own position.
The Conservatives certainly are not going to give him any credit for backing them up.
Even without the divisive return of Galloway, Conservatives are already saying that the developments in Rochdale reveal that it is the same old Labour Party underneath, for all the changes supposedly wrought by Starmer.
Rochdale means chronic by-election pain for Starmer. There is no end to agony in sight for Sunakeither.
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3:17
How Labour’s latest row unfolded
There is another by-election in the offing in Lancashire in the marginal constituency of Blackpool South
The Commons Standards Committee has recommended a potentially by-election-triggering 35-day suspension for the Conservative MP Scott Benton over lobbying and corruption allegations.
Voters do not like by-elections in grubby circumstances. They are inclined to punish the incumbent, but the reputation of all politics takes a hit.
The excuses Sunak gave this weekend for the Tory defeats in Kingswood and Wellingborough do not stand up.
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With the general election imminent, these were not “midterm by-elections”. Nor was turnout exceptionally low for such contests. The exception was the massive scale of the drop in the Conservative vote.
The quickest way to make it stop would be to call that general election.
In the past few days, keen observers report an upsurge in activity by those involved in running the Tory campaign.
While Starmer is mired in Rochdale, a giveaway budget on 6 March as the springboard to a May election must remain a distinct possibility – before it gets any worse.
The health secretary has said that the cabinet is aware of the “pressure” on Chancellor Rachel Reeves amid volatile markets and a challenging broader economic picture – but appealed for the public to “give her time”.
Wes Streeting argued that the public “underestimates” the “amount of heavy-lifting” Ms Reeves has had to do and will have to continue to do, as he declared “total confidence” in her leadership in a staunch defence of her handling of the economy.
Separately, international development minister Anneliese Dodds, who attends cabinet, told Sky News that Ms Reeves has been “very clear about the long-term plan for our country” and she herself is “confident in that long-term plan”.
The comments from the two key ministers come after the past week saw a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.
Streeting has ‘total confidence in chancellor’s leadership’
Speaking at the Jewish Labour Movement’s annual conference in north London, the health secretary acknowledged the fierce competition among all government departments for any available public funding from the Treasury, and told party members that all ministers “have to make choices and trade-offs” in where funding goes.
Mr Streeting went on to say that the chancellor and her deputy, Darren Jones, have “the hardest job of all because they have to make those choices across every bit of government spending, and they have to think about what’s in the interests of our overall economy and how we get businesses growing”.
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1:14
Chancellor’s ‘pragmatic’ approach to China
He said: “I think people continue to underestimate both the amount of heavy lifting she has had to do in her first six months, and the amount of heavy lifting she will have to do in her next six months.
“And the cabinet doesn’t underestimate that – we understand the choices she has to make, the pressure she is under.”
As a result, cabinet ministers all “have a responsibility” to both “make tough choices and drive reform and value for money” within their departments, and also be “drivers of economic growth”.
“Nothing in the last six months has shaken my conviction that economic growth is the number one priority,” he said.
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Continuing his defence of the chancellor’s handling of the economy so far, Mr Streeting said she is “trying to break us out of what has been the status quo and the economic orthodoxy of more than a decade”.
“People need to give her time, and they need to not forget that, without [Sir Keir Starmer’s] leadership, certainly we wouldn’t have won the last general election.
“Without Rachel’s leadership, we wouldn’t have won the last general election either. She built Labour’s economic credibility out of the ashes they were left in after the Corbyn leadership. And she has built that trust, built up that plan, and now she’s following through.”
He declared that he has “total confidence in the leadership that Rachel’s providing, and the leadership that the cabinet is following and driving with her, because all of us have to deliver economic growth for our country”.
Minister ‘confident in chancellor’s long-term plan’
Speaking in a separate session at the conference, Ms Dodds noted “speculation” about the fiscal headroom (the amount of money the chancellor will have available to spend), but said: “We have to focus on actually the evidence.
“And when we look at the evidence, we can see that the UK government has a chancellor who is very clear about the long-term plan for our country. She’s been delivering on it.”
Ms Dodds, who also attends cabinet, pointed to a “new fiscal system”, the chancellor’s new Industrial Strategy Council, as well as “record levels of investment under Rachel Reeves’s leadership”.
“I think it’s really important for us to focus on those fundamentals, on what has been achieved in a very short space of time. And I’m confident in that long-term plan that Rachel has been setting out.
“And we can already see the benefit of that, frankly, in terms of the UK’s reputation when it comes to public finances, but economic management more generally. Certainly that’s what I’ve heard internationally and keep hearing just now.”
Chancellor accused of having ‘fled to China’
The pair were speaking as the chancellor holds meetings in China in a bid to drum up investment for the UK economy, having ignored calls to cancel the long-planned trip because of economic turmoil at home.
Opposition parties have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, and former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.
Speaking during her trip, Ms Reeves said she would not alter her economic plans, with the October budget designed to return the UK to economic stability, and reiterated that “growth is the number one mission of this government”.
She said that “action” will be taken to meet the fiscal rules. That action is reported to include deeper spending cuts than the 5% efficiency savings already expected to be announced later this year, while cuts to the welfare bill are also said to be under consideration.
Anti-corruption minister Tulip Siddiq could lose her job if the investigation into her properties finds she broke government rules, a cabinet member has suggested.
She has referred herself to the prime minister’s independent adviser on ministers’ interests, Sir Laurie Magnus, following reports she lived in properties in London linked to allies of her aunt, Sheikh Hasina, the deposed prime minister of Bangladesh.
There have also been questions about trips she took to Russia alongside her aunt.
Ms Siddiq insists she has “done nothing wrong”.
As economic secretary to the Treasury, Ms Siddiq oversees anti-corruption efforts in the financial sector as part of her brief.
Mr Kyle told Sky News: “With Tulip, she’s referred herself straight away to this.
“There is a process under way and we know full well it will be a functional process, and the outcomes of it will be stuck to by the prime minister and this government, a complete contrast to what we’ve had in the past.”
He gave this answer after Trevor pointed out Labour would have been calling for a sacking if the roles were reversed and the Tories were in power.
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2:02
‘Tulip Siddiq will lose job if she broke rules’
Mr Kyle contrasted his party’s stance with the Conservative one – saying he called for an investigation into allegations of bullying from Priti Patel, and she “had to be dragged to that inquiry”.
He added that he let the inquiry pan out.
“The results came out, she was found guilty, and no action happened,” Mr Kyle said.
His response came after Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called for Ms Siddiq to be sacked yesterday.
Shadow chancellor Mel Stride repeated the calls today to Sky News.
He said: “What is not right is that the prime minister is not moving her out of that position and getting her to step down
“Because she is the anti-corruption minister, she has serious charges laid against her now, or serious accusations around corruption, and it’s going to be really impossible for her to do that job under current circumstances.
“So she should step down, and the prime minister needs to get a grip of that.”
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The chancellor has said the budget is “non-negotiable” on a visit to China in the face of volatile markets back in the UK.
Rachel Reeves flew out on Friday after ignoring calls from opposition parties to cancel the long-planned trip because of economic turmoil at home.
The past week has seen a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.
The Tories have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, while the Liberal Democrats say she should stay in Britain and announce a “plan B” to address market volatility.
Former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.
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1:14
Chancellor’s ‘pragmatic’ approach to China
However, during a visit to Beijing’s flagship store of UK bike maker Brompton, Ms Reeves said she would not alter her economic plans, with the October budget designed to return the UK to economic stability.
“Growth is the number one mission of this government,” she said.
“The fiscal rules laid out in the budget are non-negotiable. Economic stability is the bedrock for economic growth and prosperity.”
The treasury added that making Britain better off will be at the “forefront of the chancellor’s mind” during her visit.
She said that “action” will be taken to meet the fiscal rules. That action is reported to include deeper spending cuts than the 5% efficiency savings already expected to be announced later this year, while cuts to the welfare bill are also said to be under consideration.
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The UK has laid out a new economic relationship with China, and to use one of China’s favourite phrases, both countries are selling it as a “win-win” situation.
It’s a significant development in restoring ties between the countries. The relationship has been beset by years of tension and suspicion. Both sides want to get it back on track.
China delivered a warm welcome for the chancellor.
Rachel Reeves was shuttled from a Beijing Brompton bike shop, to the Great Hall of the People and on to a state guest house.
China’s vice premier He Lifeng said: “The outcomes we have agreed today represent pragmatic co-operation in action.”
Pragmatic. There is that word again. Chancellor Reeves uttered it four times in her closing statement.
Despite the bonhomie, China is still likely to view these British overtures with caution.
She met her counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, in Beijing on Saturday to discuss financial services, trade and investment, before heading to Shanghai for talks with representatives across British and Chinese businesses.
On Friday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy defended the trip, telling Sky News that the climbing cost of government borrowing was a “global trend” that had affected many countries, “most notably the United States”.
“We are still on track to be the fastest growing economy, according to the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] in Europe,” she told Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast.
“China is the second-largest economy, and what China does has the biggest impact on people from Stockton to Sunderland, right across the UK, and it’s absolutely essential that we have a relationship with them.”
Rachel Reeves’s trip to China – the first by a British chancellor since 2019 – was always going to be controversial.
In recent years Conservative governments have been keeping Beijing at arm’s length – amid concern about espionage, the situation in Hong Kong, and the treatment of the Uyghurs.
David Cameron’s so-called “Golden Era” of engagement in the pursuit of economic investment, notoriously capped by a visit to an Oxfordshire pub for a pint with President Xi Jinping – has been widely written off as a naive mistake.
There are many – not least the incoming US President Donald Trump – who believe we should maintain our distance.
But in another era of economic turmoil, the pursuit of growth is the government’s number one priority.
This week’s difficult market news – with the cost of government borrowing surging, and the value of the pound falling – has thoroughly raised the stakes.
It is the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) since 2019, building on the Labour government’s plan for a “pragmatic” policy with the world’s second-largest economy.
Sir Keir Starmer was the first British prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in six years at the G20 summit in Brazil last autumn.
Relations between the UK and China have become strained over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks.
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2:45
How much do we trade with China?
Navigating this has proved tricky given China is the UK’s fourth largest single trading partner, with a trade relationship worth almost £113bn and exports to China supporting over 455,000 jobs in the UK in 2020, according to the government.
During the Tories’ 14 years in office, the approach varied dramatically from the “golden era” under David Cameron to hawkish aggression under Liz Truss, while Rishi Sunak vowed to be “robust” but resisted pressure from his own party to brand China a threat.
The Treasury said a stable relationship with China would support economic growth and that “making working people across Britain secure and better off is at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind”.
Ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “By finding common ground on trade and investment, while being candid about our differences and upholding national security as the first duty of this government, we can build a long-term economic relationship with China that works in the national interest.”