This week’s two by-elections had something for everyone – except Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has now broken into the record books with six by-election gains from the Conservatives, beating New Labour’s performance in the run-up to the 1997 Election.
Reform UK got more than 10% of the votes in both constituencies.
The Liberal Democratslost two deposits, with less than 5% of votes cast each time. But even they have something to celebrate, according to one polling analyst.
Peter Kellner argues that their four by-election victories over the Tories since 2019 show that they are much better at concentrating their vote than they used to be – when they regularly clocked up 10% plus support across the country with nothing to show for it.
Reform could be falling into a similar trap with significant minority support spread nationwide, enough to damage the Conservatives without a sniff of winning a seat.
Image: Damien Egan won the Kingswood by-election for Labour.
Pic: Reuters
Image: Labour’s Gen Kitchen celebrates after being declared winner in the Wellingborough by-election. Pic: PA
No wonder Nigel Farage is talking about “uniting the centre-right vote” of Conservatives and Reform, without committing himself personally to fight in the approaching general election.
Jacob Rees-Mogg has taken up the call for the two right-wing groupings to come together.
Conservative MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns has leapt on the by-election defeats in Kingswood and Wellingborough to renew her call for Sunak to be replaced.
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The prime minister must be wondering why his MPs keep inflicting damage on their party through their own behaviour.
All six of Labour’s by-election gains were precipitated by voluntary or forced resignations by Conservative MPs.
Image: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reacts to last week’s by-election results
The tables will be turned in the next by-election in just 10 days’ time, when Labour is defending the constituency of Rochdale in Lancashire and the party is certain to be the victim of a technical knock-out because it no longer has a candidate.
Starmer’s discomfort in Rochdale and the continued agony of political death by many by-election cuts explain why there is growing speculation that the prime minister may call the general election sooner rather than later in the year, as he has suggested.
Rochdale is an unholy mess for Labour, which exposes one of the most painful divisions in the party.
Labour has held the seat since 2005. Tony Lloyd, who died last month, held it in 2019 with more than half the votes cast.
In its haste to make the best of a sure thing, Labour rushed to hold the vote to find a replacement MP.
Azhar Ali, a local council big wig, was chosen quickly as the Labour candidate. Too quickly, it turns out.
Image: Labour’s former candidate for Rochdale, Azhar Ali. Pic: PA
The Mail on Sunday and then The Daily Mail exposed comments about the Israel-Gaza conflict which he had made at Labour gatherings, in clear violation of party policy.
Ali had embraced conspiracy theories that Israel allowed the 7 October attacks to happen and made accusations about Jewish influence in the media.
He later issued an “unreserved” apology, saying the comments were “deeply offensive, ignorant, and false”.
After an agonising weekend when Labour leaders tried to keep Ali as their official candidate, he was cut loose along with the candidate in neighbouring Hyndburn for similar comments.
It is easy to see why Starmer was reluctant to act. Nominations for the Rochdale by-election had closed.
Labour was stuck with Ali on the ballot paper as their candidate, come what may. It was too late to select a substitute.
Labour must sit it out for the remainder of the campaign, as Ali presses on as an independent. If he wins, he will not receive the Labour whip.
This will automatically exclude him from being the Labour candidate at the approaching general election.
The party leadership could then impose Paul Waugh as the Labour candidate.
In a move which surprised many, Waugh gave up a career as a top political journalist to stand for selection in this by-election – unsuccessfully as it turned out.
This awkward outcome is probably the best that Labour can hope for.
Two controversial ex-Labour MPs are also standing in the by-election.
Simon Danczuk won Rochdale for Labour in 2010 and then 2015. But he was suspended from the party shortly afterwards for sexting a 17-year-old girl. This time, Danczuk is standing for Reform UK.
The candidacy of George Galloway is of much greater concern.
Image: George Galloway. File pic: PA
Since his first election in 1987, Galloway has been an MP in four constituencies: Glasgow Hillhead/Kelvin for Labour, and Bethnal Green & Bow, and Bradford West, for the Respect Party.
Galloway is pugnacious and articulate, and he specialises in fighting highly charged by-elections.
He is highly litigious and willing to take on his critics. He takes a close interest in the Middle East and is pro-Palestinian.
There have been allegations of antisemitism against him – claims he has strongly denied and even once labelled “outrageous”.
Roughly a third of the population in Rochdale has a Muslim background. As Ali’s comments showed, the Israel-Gaza conflict has already inflamed passions.
Opinion polls show that a clear majority of the British public does not take sides in the current conflict.
Of the remainder, around 20% each sympathise with Israel and the Palestinians. But the balance among Labour activists favours the Palestinians.
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0:40
Starmer: ‘People want change’
Rooting out the antisemitism which characterised Labour during Jeremy Corbyn’s far-left leadership is one of Starmer’s signal achievements.
Rough justice has meant that figures such as Corbyn, Diane Abbott and now Ali have been kicked out of the party.
But tensions have mounted as Israel’s high-casualty counteroffensive continues.
In the past, Labour has benefitted from strong support in British Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. In a handful of constituencies, this has been decisive.
Starmer is not pleasing many in his party by lining its Middle East policy up close to the government’s own position.
The Conservatives certainly are not going to give him any credit for backing them up.
Even without the divisive return of Galloway, Conservatives are already saying that the developments in Rochdale reveal that it is the same old Labour Party underneath, for all the changes supposedly wrought by Starmer.
Rochdale means chronic by-election pain for Starmer. There is no end to agony in sight for Sunakeither.
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3:17
How Labour’s latest row unfolded
There is another by-election in the offing in Lancashire in the marginal constituency of Blackpool South
The Commons Standards Committee has recommended a potentially by-election-triggering 35-day suspension for the Conservative MP Scott Benton over lobbying and corruption allegations.
Voters do not like by-elections in grubby circumstances. They are inclined to punish the incumbent, but the reputation of all politics takes a hit.
The excuses Sunak gave this weekend for the Tory defeats in Kingswood and Wellingborough do not stand up.
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With the general election imminent, these were not “midterm by-elections”. Nor was turnout exceptionally low for such contests. The exception was the massive scale of the drop in the Conservative vote.
The quickest way to make it stop would be to call that general election.
In the past few days, keen observers report an upsurge in activity by those involved in running the Tory campaign.
While Starmer is mired in Rochdale, a giveaway budget on 6 March as the springboard to a May election must remain a distinct possibility – before it gets any worse.
It is “shameful” that black boys growing up in London are “far more likely” to die than white boys, Metropolitan Police chief Sir Mark Rowley has told Sky News.
In a wide-ranging interview with Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, the commissioner saidthat relations with minority communities are “difficult for us”, while also speaking about the state of the justice system and the size of the police force.
Sir Mark, who came out of retirement to become head of the UK’s largest police force in 2022, said: “We can’t pretend otherwise that we’ve got a history between policing and black communities where policing has got a lot wrong.
“And we get a lot more right today, but we do still make mistakes. That’s not in doubt. I’m being as relentless in that as it can be.”
He said the “vast majority” of the force are “good people”.
However, he added: “But that legacy, combined with the tragedy that some of this crime falls most heavily in black communities, that creates a real problem because the legacy creates concern.”
Sir Mark, who also leads the UK’s counter-terrorism policing, said black boys growing up in London “are far more likely to be dead by the time they’re 18” than white boys.
“That’s, I think, shameful for the city,” he admitted.
“The challenge for us is, as we reach in to tackle those issues, that confrontation that comes from that reaching in, whether it’s stop and search on the streets or the sort of operations you seek.
“The danger is that’s landing in an environment with less trust.
“And that makes it even harder. But the people who win out of that [are] all of the criminals.”
Image: Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley
The commissioner added: “I’m so determined to find a way to get past this because if policing in black communities can find a way to confront these issues, together we can give black boys growing up in London equal life chances to white boys, which is not what we’re seeing at the moment.
“And it’s not simply about policing, is it?”
Sir Mark said: “I think black boys are several times more likely to be excluded from school, for example, than white boys.
“And there are multiple issues layered on top of each other that feed into disproportionality.”
‘We’re stretched, but there’s hope and determination’
Sir Mark said the Met is a “stretched service” but people who call 999 can expect an officer to attend.
“If you are in the middle of the crisis and something awful is happening and you dial 999, officers will get there really quickly,” Sir Mark said.
“I don’t pretend we’re not a stretched service.
“We are smaller than I think we ought to be, but I don’t want to give a sort of message of a lack of hope or a lack of determination.”
“I’ve seen the mayor and the home secretary fighting hard for police resourcing,” he added.
“It’s not what I’d want it to be, but it’s better than it might be without their efforts.”
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0:39
How police tracked and chased suspected phone thief
‘Close to broken’ justice system ‘frustrating’ and ‘stressed’
Sir Mark said the criminal justice system was “close to broken” and can be “frustrating” for others.
“The thing that is frustrating is that the system – and no system can be perfect – but when the system hasn’t managed to turn that person’s life around and get them on the straight and narrow, and it just becomes a revolving door,” he said.
“When that happens, of course that’s frustrating for officers.
“So the more successful prisons and probation can be in terms of getting people onto a law-abiding life from the path they’re on, the better.
“But that is a real challenge. I mean, we’re talking just after Sir Brian Leveson put his report out about the close-to-broken criminal justice system.
“And it’s absolutely vital that those repairs and reforms that he’s talking about happen really quickly, because the system is now so stressed.”
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She pinned the primary blame for the Met’s culture on its past leadership and found stop and search and the use of force against black people was excessive.
At the time, Sir Mark, who had been commissioner for six months when the report was published, said he would not use the labels of institutionally racist, institutionally misogynistic and institutionally homophobic, which Baroness Casey insisted the Met deserved.
However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who helped hire Sir Mark – and could fire him – made it clear the commissioner agreed with Baroness Casey’s verdict.
A few months after the report, Sir Mark launched a two-year £366m plan to overhaul the Met, including increased emphasis on neighbourhood policing to rebuild public trust and plans to recruit 500 more community support officers and an extra 565 people to work with teams investigating domestic violence, sexual offences and child sexual abuse and exploitation.
Watch the full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips from 8.30am on Sunday.
Labour’s largest union donor, Unite, has voted to suspend Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner over her role in the Birmingham bin strike row.
Members of the trade union, one of the UK’s largest, also “overwhelmingly” voted to “re-examine its relationship” with Labour over the issue.
They said Ms Rayner, who is also housing, communities and local government secretary, Birmingham Council’s leader, John Cotton, and other Labour councillors had been suspended for “bringing the union into disrepute”.
There was confusion over Ms Rayner’s membership of Unite, with her office having said she was no longer a member and resigned months ago and therefore could not be suspended.
But Unite said she was registered as a member. Parliament’s latest register of interests had her down as a member in May.
The union said an emergency motion was put to members at its policy conference in Brighton on Friday.
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Unite is one of the Labour Party’s largest union donors, donating £414,610 in the first quarter of 2025 – the highest amount in that period by a union, company or individual.
The union condemned Birmingham’s Labour council and the government for “attacking the bin workers”.
Mountains of rubbish have been piling up in the city since January after workers first went on strike over changes to their pay, with all-out strike action starting in March. An agreement has still not been made.
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2:58
Rat catcher tackling Birmingham’s bins problem
Ms Rayner and the councillors had their membership suspended for “effectively firing and rehiring the workers, who are striking over pay cuts of up to £8,000”, the union added.
‘Missing in action’
General secretary Sharon Graham told Sky News on Saturday morning: “Angela Rayner, who has the power to solve this dispute, has been missing in action, has not been involved, is refusing to come to the table.”
She had earlier said: “Unite is crystal clear, it will call out bad employers regardless of the colour of their rosette.
“Angela Rayner has had every opportunity to intervene and resolve this dispute but has instead backed a rogue council that has peddled lies and smeared its workers fighting huge pay cuts.
“The disgraceful actions of the government and a so-called Labour council, is essentially fire and rehire and makes a joke of the Employment Relations Act promises.
“People up and down the country are asking whose side is the Labour government on and coming up with the answer not workers.”
Image: Piles of rubbish built up around Birmingham because of the strike over pay
Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesman said the government’s “priority is and always has been the residents of Birmingham”.
He said the decision by Unite workers to go on strike had “caused disruption” to the city.
“We’ve worked to clean up streets and remain in close contact with the council […] as we support its recovery,” he added.
A total of 800 Unite delegates voted on the motion.
Nearly 60 Labour MPs have called on David Lammy and the Foreign Office to immediately recognise Palestine as a state.
A mix of centrist and left-wing MPs, including some committee chairs, wrote to the foreign secretary this week to say “by not recognising [Palestine] as a state, we undermine our own policy of a two-state solution and set an expectation that the status quo can continue and see the effective erasure and annexation of Palestinian territory”.
The 59 MPs suggest the government pursue five different measures to prevent the Israeli government from carrying out its Rafah plan, adding that they believed Gaza was being “ethnically cleansed” – a claim vehemently denied by Israel.
The letter was organised by Labour Friends of Palestine and the Middle East group.
Image: Palestinians ask for food from a charity kitchen in Gaza on 7 July. Pic: Reuters
It states that the Israeli plan, which would see the “population transfer to the southern tip of Gaza in preparation for deportation outside the strip”, is an accurate description, but that they believe a clearer way to describe it is the “ethnic cleansing of Gaza”.
Israeli officials have said they want to separate the civilian population from Hamas, which still controls parts of Gaza and holds dozens of hostages abducted in the October 7 attack that triggered the war 21 months ago.
Emmanuel Macron discussed recognising Palestine as a state at a joint news conference with Sir Keir Starmer on Thursday – the same day the letter was signed.
The French president said: “Today, working together in order to recognise the state of Palestine and to initiate this political momentum is the only path to peace.”
While France has not yet recognised a Palestinian state yet, Norway, Ireland and Spain coordinated their recognition last year.
The letter demands ministers take five different measures to:
• Recognise the state of Palestine • Continue support for the UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) • Secure the release of hostages • Press for the full and unhindered resumption of humanitarian aid • Fully review and place restrictions on trade with and financial support of illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank
The government says it is already providing funding for the UNRWA and working to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas, but immediate recognition of Palestinian statehood will be a much more controversial move.
Sky News understands this is the second time MPs have formally called on the government to immediately recognise the state of Palestine, with previous letters signed by some parliamentary aides and even junior ministers.
Ministers have indicated their plan to recognise Palestine would be “at a time that is most conducive to the peace process” without further clarity of when that might be.
They have also indicated that it would not be suitable to speculate about future sanctions, as this could reduce their impact.
A Foreign Office spokesperson said: “Since day one, this government has been clear that we need to see an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages cruelly detained by Hamas, better protection of civilians, much-needed food aid, medicines, shelter and other supplies immediately being allowed to enter Gaza, and a path to long-term peace and stability.
“The situation on the ground in Gaza is horrendous – for the hostages and for Palestinians – and we urgently want to see a deal done, to end the suffering on all sides.
“We are committed to recognising a Palestinian state and to doing so when will have most impact in support of a peace process. We continue to provide lifesaving aid to supporting Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, and to work closely in support of the Palestinian Authority.”