Was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for Russia taking Avdiivka?
The fall of Avdiivka has handed Russia its most important battlefield victory since it seized Bakhmut following nine months of gruelling attritional warfare.
But was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for this battlefield loss, and is this rare Russian success the start of a dangerous new phase of the war?
Avdiivka has been the scene of some of the fiercest and most bloody battles of the war. Russian forces have laid siege to the small Ukrainian city for the past four months.
Navalny’s wife shares goodbye photograph – follow latest
The Ukrainian forces have been significantly overmatched by Russian troops, with some reports suggesting that areas of the frontline had 10 times as many Russian soldiers as Ukrainian.
The Russian Air Force has also been playing an increasingly prominent role in the battle, taking advantage of the relatively close proximity of the sanctuary of Russian airspace.
An apartment building is destroyed in Avdiivka, the site of heavy battles with Russian troops in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, April 25, 2023. Pic: AP
Delivering over 60 bombs a day on to Ukrainian frontline positions eventually rendered the Ukrainian defence of Avdiivka untenable, as the Russian forces have slowly been encircling the city.
Ukraine’s decision to retreat from the frontline city appears justified militarily, but that has not stopped President Zelenskyy and President Biden highlighting Ukraine’s shortage of weapons and the increasingly critical nature of further delays to securing the $60bn of aid currently being delayed by the US Congress.
Although Ukraine will be keen to secure long-term funding support from the US, the critical Ukrainian need at this time is weapons and ammunition.
The EU has approved ongoing funding support for Ukraine, but converting this commitment into ammunition available to frontline soldiers is a challenge.
For the past two years, the majority of the weapons provided to Ukraine have been sourced from the war chests of Western nations.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Russian forces raise flags in Ukrainian city
However, those stocks are now running low, and there are no ready supplies available commercially.
Activating an individual nation’s defence industrial base to design, build and deliver replacement weapons is one of the only ways to meet Ukraine’s future military requirements.
The West has successfully sourced some replacement ammunition – such as artillery shells – but these tend to be used in attritional warfare which favours the larger force, so this is not Ukraine’s priority.
In contrast, Ukraine has seized the initiative in this war through the West providing high-technology, precision strike weapons such as the UK Storm Shadow missile.
This weapon has proven very effective at attacking Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, but stocks are running low – Ukraine want more.
However, this missile is 30 years old, and many of the components are obsolete, so industry cannot easily provide replacement stock.
The West could provide Ukraine with more modern weapons from its inventory or directly from the manufacturers; however, technology is the West’s asymmetric advantage on the battlefield.
There is always a risk that some of the West’s donated weapons will end up on the black market and eventually in the hands of the Russians or Chinese, and the West cannot afford to compromise its own national security.
As a result, the only sustainable way to provide Ukraine with enduring military support is through a coordinated investment in the international defence industrial base.
However, the investment, development, production and testing process all takes time – which Ukraine does not have.
A view shows residential buildings heavily damaged by permanent Russian military strikes in Avdiivka in November 2023. Pic: Reuters
Although Russia has achieved a rare victory by seizing Avdiivka, its military forces suffered very high casualties during the four-month siege of the city.
Read more from Sky News:
Police in Russia crack down on protests
Russia ‘outmatched’ by Ukraine’s allies
Ukraine’s army chief says forces have pulled out of frontline city
Offensive action in the winter is difficult; the cold weather is unforgiving, there is limited natural cover from leaves and foliage, and the ground is frozen making it hard to dig foxholes.
So why was Avdiivka such a priority for Russia?
The 24 February marks the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and President Putin will have been very keen to demonstrate battlefield success to boost the moral of its forces.
Putin will also want to demonstrate progress in his “special military operation” in advance of the Russian presidential elections being held next month.
Ukrainian soldiers fire a French-made CAESAR self-propelled howitzer towards Russian positions near Avdiivka in December 2022. Pic: AP
However, most analysts believe that neither Russia nor Ukraine have sufficient military resources to mount a significant offensive anytime soon, and that the coming year could be characterised by a series of smaller indecisive actions along the frontline.
But, if the West fails to address Ukraine’s desperate need for munitions, that will create a window of opportunity for Russian forces, and one that President Putin might be tempted to exploit.
Donald Trump has said that his 28-point peace plan for Ukraine is “by far” not the “final offer”, ahead of crisis talks in Geneva.
Meeting on the sidelines of a G20 summit in South Africa, European and other Western leaders scrambled to respond to the US president’s demand for Ukraine to accept the plan drawn up by the Trump administration and the Kremlin.
In a joint statement on Saturday, they said the plan announced on Friday could serve as a basis for talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine but required “additional work”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
How Ukraine peace plan came about
Follow the latest on the Ukraine peace plan
As a result, a meeting has been hastily convened in Geneva, Switzerland, on Sunday, where national security advisers from the E3 – France, Britain and Germany – will meet EU, US and Ukrainian officials for further discussions.
Ahead of the talks, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address to his nation that Ukrainian representatives at the talks “know how to protect Ukrainian national interests and exactly what is needed to prevent Russia from carrying out” another invasion.
“Real peace is always based on security and justice,” the Ukrainian leader added.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
PM: ‘More to do’ on US Ukraine peace plan
The 28-point peace plan closely resembles the list of demands repeatedly stated by the Kremlin since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago and if adopted, would see Ukraine cede territory to Russia – and cut the size of its military.
Mr Trump has said he wants a response from Ukraine by Thursday, while suggesting an extension could be possible.
On Saturday, Mr Trump told reporters outside the White House that the plan was not the “final offer” when asked.
He said: “We’d like to get the peace, it should’ve happened a long time ago. The Ukraine war with Russia should’ve never happened. If I was president, it would have never happened. We’re trying to get it ended. One way or another, we have to get it ended.”
His secretary of state Marco Rubio insisted that the peace proposal was authored by the US, despite what a handful of senators have alleged.
“It is based on input from the Russian side. But it is also based on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine,” he said.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
The 28-point peace plan explained
Leaders have sought to balance praise for President Trump’s attempt to end the war with recognition that some terms in his proposal are unpalatable for Kyiv.
“There are many things that cannot simply be an American proposal, which requires broader consultation,” French
President Emmanuel Macron said on the sidelines of the G20, adding that an agreement had to allow for peace for Ukrainians and “security for all Europeans”.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz underlined the importance to Europe of supporting Ukraine.
“If Ukraine loses this war and possibly collapses, it will have an impact on European politics as a whole, on the entire European continent. And that is why we are so committed to this issue,” he said.
“There is currently an opportunity to end this war, but we are still quite a long way from a good outcome for everyone.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Keir Starmer calls for growth plan at G20
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told reporters in Johannesburg: “We are concerned about [caps on military], because it’s fundamental that Ukraine has to be able to defend itself if there’s a ceasefire.”
He said the proposal “requires additional work”, adding: “And that’s why there’s been the agreement that in Geneva tomorrow [Sunday], you’ll have senior US personnel, you’ll have European NSAs [national security advisers], including the UK NSA, and obviously Ukrainians there to work further on the draft.”
Sir Keir also spoke to Mr Trump, relaying discussions held at G20 to the US leader, according to a Downing Street spokesperson, who added that the two leaders would speak again on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Sir Keir, who has defended his decision to fly to the G20 days before a difficult budget, said the role of the G20 is “critical at this moment”.
“The G20 has worked together before to fix fundamental problems in the global economy. We need to find ways to play a constructive role again today in the face of the world challenges,” he said.
“I’d like to see us come together around a five-point plan for growth that leaves no one behind.”
Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz at the G20 summit. Pic: PA
The US, however, is boycotting the talks.
The Trump administration made its opposition to South Africa’s G20 agenda clear earlier this year when the country started holding meetings ahead of the summit. South Africa gets to set the agenda as the country holding the rotating G20 presidency.
G20 leaders broke with tradition and adopted a declaration at the start of their summit – despite opposition from the US.
Vincent Magwenya, spokesman for South African president Cyril Ramaphosa, said a leaders’ declaration was adopted unanimously in Johannesburg.
The White House later accused South Africa of refusing to facilitate a smooth transition of the G20 presidency.
Pic: AP
Read more:
Analysis: Europe scrambles at G20 over Ukraine peace plane
G20 lands in South Africa: But who feels forgotten?
The G20 bloc was formed in 1999 as a bridge between rich and poor nations to confront global financial crises.
While it often operates in the shadow of the powerful Group of Seven nations, G20 members represent around 85% of the world’s economy, 75% of international trade and more than half the global population.
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment3 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024