Was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for Russia taking Avdiivka?
The fall of Avdiivka has handed Russia its most important battlefield victory since it seized Bakhmut following nine months of gruelling attritional warfare.
But was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for this battlefield loss, and is this rare Russian success the start of a dangerous new phase of the war?
Avdiivka has been the scene of some of the fiercest and most bloody battles of the war. Russian forces have laid siege to the small Ukrainian city for the past four months.
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The Ukrainian forces have been significantly overmatched by Russian troops, with some reports suggesting that areas of the frontline had 10 times as many Russian soldiers as Ukrainian.
The Russian Air Force has also been playing an increasingly prominent role in the battle, taking advantage of the relatively close proximity of the sanctuary of Russian airspace.
An apartment building is destroyed in Avdiivka, the site of heavy battles with Russian troops in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, April 25, 2023. Pic: AP
Delivering over 60 bombs a day on to Ukrainian frontline positions eventually rendered the Ukrainian defence of Avdiivka untenable, as the Russian forces have slowly been encircling the city.
Ukraine’s decision to retreat from the frontline city appears justified militarily, but that has not stopped President Zelenskyy and President Biden highlighting Ukraine’s shortage of weapons and the increasingly critical nature of further delays to securing the $60bn of aid currently being delayed by the US Congress.
Although Ukraine will be keen to secure long-term funding support from the US, the critical Ukrainian need at this time is weapons and ammunition.
The EU has approved ongoing funding support for Ukraine, but converting this commitment into ammunition available to frontline soldiers is a challenge.
For the past two years, the majority of the weapons provided to Ukraine have been sourced from the war chests of Western nations.
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Russian forces raise flags in Ukrainian city
However, those stocks are now running low, and there are no ready supplies available commercially.
Activating an individual nation’s defence industrial base to design, build and deliver replacement weapons is one of the only ways to meet Ukraine’s future military requirements.
The West has successfully sourced some replacement ammunition – such as artillery shells – but these tend to be used in attritional warfare which favours the larger force, so this is not Ukraine’s priority.
In contrast, Ukraine has seized the initiative in this war through the West providing high-technology, precision strike weapons such as the UK Storm Shadow missile.
This weapon has proven very effective at attacking Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, but stocks are running low – Ukraine want more.
However, this missile is 30 years old, and many of the components are obsolete, so industry cannot easily provide replacement stock.
The West could provide Ukraine with more modern weapons from its inventory or directly from the manufacturers; however, technology is the West’s asymmetric advantage on the battlefield.
There is always a risk that some of the West’s donated weapons will end up on the black market and eventually in the hands of the Russians or Chinese, and the West cannot afford to compromise its own national security.
As a result, the only sustainable way to provide Ukraine with enduring military support is through a coordinated investment in the international defence industrial base.
However, the investment, development, production and testing process all takes time – which Ukraine does not have.
A view shows residential buildings heavily damaged by permanent Russian military strikes in Avdiivka in November 2023. Pic: Reuters
Although Russia has achieved a rare victory by seizing Avdiivka, its military forces suffered very high casualties during the four-month siege of the city.
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Offensive action in the winter is difficult; the cold weather is unforgiving, there is limited natural cover from leaves and foliage, and the ground is frozen making it hard to dig foxholes.
So why was Avdiivka such a priority for Russia?
The 24 February marks the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and President Putin will have been very keen to demonstrate battlefield success to boost the moral of its forces.
Putin will also want to demonstrate progress in his “special military operation” in advance of the Russian presidential elections being held next month.
Ukrainian soldiers fire a French-made CAESAR self-propelled howitzer towards Russian positions near Avdiivka in December 2022. Pic: AP
However, most analysts believe that neither Russia nor Ukraine have sufficient military resources to mount a significant offensive anytime soon, and that the coming year could be characterised by a series of smaller indecisive actions along the frontline.
But, if the West fails to address Ukraine’s desperate need for munitions, that will create a window of opportunity for Russian forces, and one that President Putin might be tempted to exploit.
World
European leaders to meet in Ukraine for ‘coalition of the willing’ talks – and issue call to Russia
Sir Keir Starmer will join other European leaders in Kyiv on Saturday for talks on the “coalition of the willing”.
The prime minister is attending the event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
It will be the first time the leaders of the four countries will travel to Ukraine at the same time – on board a train to Kyiv – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
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Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kiev. Pic: Reuters
Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for the coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.
Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement voicing support for Ukraine and calling on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.
Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.
“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”
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The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.
But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.
“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.
“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”
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The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.
They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.
This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.
World
Ten explosions near international airport in India-administered part of Kashmir, officials say
Ten explosions have been heard near Srinagar International Airport in India-administered parts of Kashmir, officials have told Reuters news agency.
The blasts followed blackouts caused by multiple projectiles, which were seen in the sky above the city of Jammu earlier on Friday.
Explosions were also heard in the Sikh holy city of Amritsar, in the neighbouring Punjab state, according to Reuters.
An Indian military official told the agency that “drones have been sighted” and “they are being engaged”.
It comes as tensions between India and Pakistan across the line of control around the region of Kashmir have boiled over this week, leading to fears of a wider conflict.
On Wednesday morning, India carried out missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered parts of the disputed region.
The retaliation came weeks after 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, were shot dead by gunmen in an India-administered part of Kashmir last month.
The government in India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites, while Pakistan said it was not involved in the April attack and the sites were not militant bases.
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Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Around 48 people have been killed since Wednesday, according to casualty estimates on both sides – which have not been independently verified.
India also suspended its top cricket tournament, the Indian Premier League, as a result of rising tensions, while the Pakistan Super League moved the remainder of its season to the United Arab Emirates.
Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a conference on Friday that the US is in constant contact with both India and Pakistan.
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Conclaves are famously unpredictable affairs – and once again the election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the new pope caught many by surprise.
The newly elected Pope Leo XIV won the consensus of the 133 cardinal electors after only four ballots – a fast process for a diverse college of cardinals.
Though his name had circulated among some Vatican watchers, other cardinals had emerged as clear front-runners, including Pietro Parolin – the Vatican’s number two who would have been the first Italian in almost 50 years to become pontiff – or Luis Tagle, a Filipino cardinal looking to become the first Asian pope.
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Instead, it was the first North American to win the highly secretive process.
So, what went on behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel?
Until Thursday lunchtime, Cardinal Parolin was ahead, gathering between 45 and 55 votes, sources say.
A substantial number, but well short of the 89 votes he needed for a two-thirds majority.
At this point, Cardinal Prevost had between 34 and 44 votes.
But as the Italian struggled to grow his support during the first three rounds of voting, he stepped down from the race, endorsing Prevost instead, Sky News understands.
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An internal battle between Luis Tagle and Pablo Virgilio David – both cardinals hailing from Asia – cancelled out both of their chances.
And a contender from Africa – the most conservative sector of the church – was never likely for a conclave where the overwhelming majority of cardinals had been appointed by Francis, a progressive pontiff, sources say.
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An American pope has long been seen as highly improbable, given the geopolitical power of the US.
But Cardinal Prevost was able to draw from across the groups making up the electors: moderate US cardinals, South American cardinals and many European cardinals all coalesced around him.
Italian newspaper La Repubblica said Prevost “certainly attracted cross-party preferences, both ideologically and geographically”.
“In the conclave he was the least American of Americans: Born in Chicago, he lived 20 years in Peru,” the newspaper said.
It added: “As a man used to teamwork, Prevost appeared to many as the right man to make the papacy evolve into a more collegial form.”
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