Was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for Russia taking Avdiivka?

Published

1 year ago

February 18, 2024

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The fall of Avdiivka has handed Russia its most important battlefield victory since it seized Bakhmut following nine months of gruelling attritional warfare.

But was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for this battlefield loss, and is this rare Russian success the start of a dangerous new phase of the war?

Avdiivka has been the scene of some of the fiercest and most bloody battles of the war. Russian forces have laid siege to the small Ukrainian city for the past four months.

Navalny’s wife shares goodbye photograph – follow latest

The Ukrainian forces have been significantly overmatched by Russian troops, with some reports suggesting that areas of the frontline had 10 times as many Russian soldiers as Ukrainian.

The Russian Air Force has also been playing an increasingly prominent role in the battle, taking advantage of the relatively close proximity of the sanctuary of Russian airspace.

Delivering over 60 bombs a day on to Ukrainian frontline positions eventually rendered the Ukrainian defence of Avdiivka untenable, as the Russian forces have slowly been encircling the city.

Ukraine’s decision to retreat from the frontline city appears justified militarily, but that has not stopped President Zelenskyy and President Biden highlighting Ukraine’s shortage of weapons and the increasingly critical nature of further delays to securing the $60bn of aid currently being delayed by the US Congress.

Although Ukraine will be keen to secure long-term funding support from the US, the critical Ukrainian need at this time is weapons and ammunition.

The EU has approved ongoing funding support for Ukraine, but converting this commitment into ammunition available to frontline soldiers is a challenge.

For the past two years, the majority of the weapons provided to Ukraine have been sourced from the war chests of Western nations.

However, those stocks are now running low, and there are no ready supplies available commercially.

Activating an individual nation’s defence industrial base to design, build and deliver replacement weapons is one of the only ways to meet Ukraine’s future military requirements.

The West has successfully sourced some replacement ammunition – such as artillery shells – but these tend to be used in attritional warfare which favours the larger force, so this is not Ukraine’s priority.

In contrast, Ukraine has seized the initiative in this war through the West providing high-technology, precision strike weapons such as the UK Storm Shadow missile.

This weapon has proven very effective at attacking Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, but stocks are running low – Ukraine want more.

However, this missile is 30 years old, and many of the components are obsolete, so industry cannot easily provide replacement stock.

The West could provide Ukraine with more modern weapons from its inventory or directly from the manufacturers; however, technology is the West’s asymmetric advantage on the battlefield.

There is always a risk that some of the West’s donated weapons will end up on the black market and eventually in the hands of the Russians or Chinese, and the West cannot afford to compromise its own national security.

As a result, the only sustainable way to provide Ukraine with enduring military support is through a coordinated investment in the international defence industrial base.

However, the investment, development, production and testing process all takes time – which Ukraine does not have.

Although Russia has achieved a rare victory by seizing Avdiivka, its military forces suffered very high casualties during the four-month siege of the city.

Offensive action in the winter is difficult; the cold weather is unforgiving, there is limited natural cover from leaves and foliage, and the ground is frozen making it hard to dig foxholes.

So why was Avdiivka such a priority for Russia?

The 24 February marks the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and President Putin will have been very keen to demonstrate battlefield success to boost the moral of its forces.

Putin will also want to demonstrate progress in his “special military operation” in advance of the Russian presidential elections being held next month.

However, most analysts believe that neither Russia nor Ukraine have sufficient military resources to mount a significant offensive anytime soon, and that the coming year could be characterised by a series of smaller indecisive actions along the frontline.

But, if the West fails to address Ukraine’s desperate need for munitions, that will create a window of opportunity for Russian forces, and one that President Putin might be tempted to exploit.

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Putin humiliated by ‘Russia’s Pearl Harbor’ – as Kyiv goes for broke

Published

12 hours ago

June 2, 2025

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Putin humiliated by 'Russia's Pearl Harbor' - as Kyiv goes for broke

An audacious Ukrainian drone attack against multiple airbases across Russia is a humiliating security breach for Vladimir Putin that will doubtless trigger a furious response.

Pro-Kremlin bloggers have described the drone assault – which Ukrainian security sources said hit more than 40 Russian warplanes – as “Russia’s Pearl Harbor” in reference to the Japanese attack against the US in 1941 that prompted Washington to enter the Second World War.

Ukraine war latest: Russia accuses Kyiv of ‘terrorist attack’

The Ukrainian operation – which used small drones smuggled into Russia, hidden in mobile sheds and launched off the back of trucks – also demonstrated how technology and imagination have transformed the battlefield, enabling Ukraine to seriously hurt its far more powerful opponent.

Moscow will have to retaliate, with speculation already appearing online about whether President Putin will again threaten the use of nuclear weapons.

“We hope that the response will be the same as the US response to the attack on their Pearl Harbor or even harsher,” military blogger Roman Alekhin wrote on his Telegram channel.

Codenamed ‘Spider’s Web’, the mission on Sunday was the culmination of one and a half years of planning, according to a security source.

In that time, Ukraine’s secret service smuggled first-person view (FPV) drones into Russia, sources with knowledge of the operation said.

Flat-pack, garden-office style sheds were also secretly transported into the country.

The oblong sheds were then built and drones were hidden inside, before the containers were put on the back of trucks and driven to within range of their respective targets.

At a chosen time, doors on the roofs of the huts were opened remotely and the drones were flown out. Each was armed with a bomb that was flown into the airfields, with videos released by the security service that purportedly showed them blasting into Russian aircraft.

Among the targets were Tu-95 and Tu-22 bomber aircraft that can launch cruise missiles, according to the Ukrainian side. An A-50 airborne early warning aircraft was also allegedly hit. This is a valuable platform that is used to command and control operations.

The use of such simple technology to destroy multi-million-pound aircraft will be watched with concern by governments around the world.

Suddenly, every single military base, airfield and warship will appear that little bit more vulnerable if any truck nearby could be loaded with killer drones.

The most immediate focus, though, will be on how Mr Putin responds.

Previous attacks by Ukraine inside Russia have triggered retaliatory strikes and increasingly threatening rhetoric from the Kremlin.

But this latest operation is one of the biggest and most significant, and comes on the eve of a new round of peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv that are meant to take place in Turkey. It is not clear if that will still happen.

US President Donald Trump has been pushing for the two sides to make peace but Russia has only escalated its war.

Ukraine clearly felt it had nothing to lose but to also go on the attack.

World

Eight injured in petrol bomb and ‘flamethrower’ attack at rally for Hamas-held hostages in Colorado

Published

12 hours ago

June 2, 2025

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Eight injured in petrol bomb and 'flamethrower' attack at rally for Hamas-held hostages in Colorado

Eight people have been injured at a US rally for Israeli hostages after they were attacked by a man with a makeshift flamethrower and petrol bombs.

A group of people in Boulder, Colorado, were holding a regular demonstration to raise awareness of Hamas-held hostages in Gaza when they were allegedly targeted by a man who shouted “Free Palestine” on Sunday. The suspect was arrested at the scene.

Four women and four men aged between 52 and 88 were injured and transported to hospitals, Boulder police said.

The force said the injuries ranged from “very serious” to “more minor”.

Some of the victims were airlifted to hospital.

Authorities had earlier put the count of the injured at six and said at least one of them was in a critical condition.

The FBI says the attack was a targeted “act of terrorism” and named the suspect as 45-year-old Mohamed Soliman from El Paso County, Colorado.

He was also taken to hospital after the alleged attack.

Eyewitnesses said the suspect threw Molotov cocktails, an improvised bomb made from a bottle filled with petrol and stuffed with a piece of cloth to use as a fuse, into people attending the demonstration.

He also used a “makeshift flamethrower” during the attack, according to Mark Michalek, special agent in charge of the FBI’s Denver field office.

Two senior law enforcement officials told Sky News’ US partner network that Soliman is an Egyptian national who seemingly acted alone. They said he has no previous significant contact with law enforcement.

The White House described the suspect as an “illegal alien” who had received a work permit under the Biden administration despite overstaying a tourist visa.

A large part of downtown Boulder was cordoned off as sniffer dogs and the bomb squad searched for potential devices.

Police chief Steve Redfearn said the attack happened around 1.26pm on Sunday and that initial reports were that “people were being set on fire”.

“When we arrived we encountered multiple victims that were injured, with injuries consistent with burns,” Mr Redfearn told the media.

The police chief also said he did not believe anyone else was involved.

“We’re fairly confident we have the lone suspect in custody,” he said.

Boulder’s police chief said the attack happened as a “group of pro-Israel people” were peacefully demonstrating.

The walk is held regularly by a volunteer group called Run For Their Lives, which aims to raise awareness of the hostages who remain in Gaza.

Video from the scene showed a bare-chested man shouting and clutching two bottles after the attack.

Other footage showed him being held down and arrested by police as people doused one of the victims with water.

Nearby there appears to be a large black burn mark on the ground.

Brooke Coffman, a 19-year-old student, described seeing four women on the ground with burns on their legs. She said one appeared badly burned on most of her body and had been wrapped in a flag.

She described seeing a man whom she presumed to be the attacker standing in the courtyard shirtless, holding a glass
bottle of clear liquid and shouting.

“Everybody is yelling, ‘get water, get water,'” Ms Coffman said.

Lady on fire ‘from head to toe’

Another eyewitness, who did not give his name, said: “It was very strange to just hear a crash on the ground of a bottle breaking and then it sounded like a boom and then people started yelling and screaming.

“But I saw fire, I saw people screaming and crying and tripping and I saw the attacker – he had three Molotov cocktails.

“One of them he threw inside a group and one lady lit on fire from head to toe and then the other four people were also injured in the fire, but not as bad as the first one.”

The eyewitness continued: “The attacker came out from the bushes and the trees… he threw another cocktail, and on the second one he lit himself on fire – I imagine accidentally.

“He seemed to have a bullet proof vest on, or some kind of vest, and then a shirt underneath it.

“And after he lit himself on fire he took off the vest and the shirt and he was shirtless.

“But he still had his Molotov cocktails in his hands ready to use them… ready to throw them and explode them on people.”

Lynn Segal, another eyewitness, said: “These shoots of fire, linear, about 20 feet long, spears of fire, two of them at least, came across right into the group, about 15 feet from me.”

The 72-year-old said two neighbours of hers, a husband and wife in their 80s, were at the demonstration. She added that the wife was one of the victims and appeared to be the most seriously injured.

“They’re both elders in their 80s, and you can’t take something like this assault to your body as easily as someone younger.”

Ms Segal, who was wearing a “Free Palestine” T-shirt, said she watches the demonstrations to “try and listen” to what the volunteers are “talking about” because she is concerned about the hostages.

She added that she is concerned the attack will “divide this community”.

Another eyewitness told MSNBC that he saw the suspect “lighting people on fire while spraying gasoline on them”.

Brian, who is himself Jewish and asked that his last name not be made public, added that he saw victims “having their skin melt off their bodies”.

A statement from Boulder’s Jewish community said “an incendiary device was thrown at walkers at the Run for Their Lives walk on Pearl Street as they were raising awareness for the hostages still held in Gaza”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement this morning: “This attack was aimed against peaceful people who wished to express their solidarity with the hostages held by Hamas, simply because they were Jews.

“I trust the United States authorities to prosecute the cold blood perpetrator to the fullest extent of the law and do everything possible to prevent future attacks against innocent civilians.

“The antisemitic attacks around the world are a direct result of blood libels against the Jewish state and people, and this must be stopped.”

US Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a prominent Jewish Democrat , said it was an antisemitic attack.

“This is horrifying, and this cannot continue. We must stand up to antisemitism,” he said on X.

Boulder is a university city of about 105,000 people on the northwest edge of Denver, in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains.

The attack follows the arrest of a Chicago-born man in the fatal shooting of two Israeli embassy employees in Washington DC two weeks ago.

Tensions are simmering in the US over Israel’s war in Gaza.

There has been an increase in antisemitic hate crime, as well as moves by some supporters of Israel to brand pro-Palestinian protests as antisemitic.

President Trump’s administration has detained protesters without charge and pulled funding from elite universities that have permitted such demonstrations.

World

Trump-inspired candidate Karol Nawrocki wins Poland’s presidential election

Published

12 hours ago

June 2, 2025

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Trump-inspired candidate Karol Nawrocki wins Poland's presidential election

Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, who draws inspiration from Donald Trump, has won Poland’s presidential election.

Mr Nawrocki secured 50.89% of votes while his opponent, Liberal pro-EU candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, took 49.11%.

Earlier, an exit poll called the result the other way around – with both men declaring victory.

Mr Nawrocki had positioned himself as a defender of traditional Polish values, aligning himself with US conservatives, including Mr Trump, and showing scepticism towards the EU.

Meanwhile, Mr Trzaskowski, 53, had promised to ease abortion restrictions, introduce civil partnerships for LGBT couples and promote constructive ties with European partners.

The vote has been closely watched in neighbouring Ukraine as well as in Russia, the European Union and the United States – with the election being framed as Poland choosing between more liberal norms or a more nationalist path.

This runoff follows a tightly-contested first round of voting in May, which saw Mr Trzaskowski win just over 31% and Mr Nawrocki nearly 30%, eliminating 11 other candidates.

Mr Nawrocki won the vote despite discussions about his past dominating the last days of the campaign – from questions over his acquisition of a flat from a pensioner to an admission that he took part in orchestrated brawls.

“Everything was on a knife edge,” said 32-year-old IT specialist Patryk Marek. “Feelings are for sure mixed for this moment. But how small this margin was, it tells us how divided we are almost in half as voters.”

Poland’s new president will have significant influence over whether the country’s centrist government can fulfil its agenda, given the presidential power to veto laws.

Led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the government had struggled to pass legislation with Poland’s previous president in power and may find the same is true once Mr Nawrocki is sworn in.

Like his predecessor, Mr Nawrocki is expected to block any attempts by the government to liberalise abortion or reform the judiciary.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was convinced the EU could continue its “very good cooperation” with Poland.

“We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values. So let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home,” she said.

There has been some discussion about whether a win for Mr Nawrocki could lead to fresh elections in Poland.

Jacek Sasin, a politician for the opposition Law and Justice party, said: “The referendum on the dismissal of the Tusk government has been won.”