Was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for Russia taking Avdiivka?
The fall of Avdiivka has handed Russia its most important battlefield victory since it seized Bakhmut following nine months of gruelling attritional warfare.
But was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for this battlefield loss, and is this rare Russian success the start of a dangerous new phase of the war?
Avdiivka has been the scene of some of the fiercest and most bloody battles of the war. Russian forces have laid siege to the small Ukrainian city for the past four months.
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The Ukrainian forces have been significantly overmatched by Russian troops, with some reports suggesting that areas of the frontline had 10 times as many Russian soldiers as Ukrainian.
The Russian Air Force has also been playing an increasingly prominent role in the battle, taking advantage of the relatively close proximity of the sanctuary of Russian airspace.
An apartment building is destroyed in Avdiivka, the site of heavy battles with Russian troops in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, April 25, 2023. Pic: AP
Delivering over 60 bombs a day on to Ukrainian frontline positions eventually rendered the Ukrainian defence of Avdiivka untenable, as the Russian forces have slowly been encircling the city.
Ukraine’s decision to retreat from the frontline city appears justified militarily, but that has not stopped President Zelenskyy and President Biden highlighting Ukraine’s shortage of weapons and the increasingly critical nature of further delays to securing the $60bn of aid currently being delayed by the US Congress.
Although Ukraine will be keen to secure long-term funding support from the US, the critical Ukrainian need at this time is weapons and ammunition.
The EU has approved ongoing funding support for Ukraine, but converting this commitment into ammunition available to frontline soldiers is a challenge.
For the past two years, the majority of the weapons provided to Ukraine have been sourced from the war chests of Western nations.
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Russian forces raise flags in Ukrainian city
However, those stocks are now running low, and there are no ready supplies available commercially.
Activating an individual nation’s defence industrial base to design, build and deliver replacement weapons is one of the only ways to meet Ukraine’s future military requirements.
The West has successfully sourced some replacement ammunition – such as artillery shells – but these tend to be used in attritional warfare which favours the larger force, so this is not Ukraine’s priority.
In contrast, Ukraine has seized the initiative in this war through the West providing high-technology, precision strike weapons such as the UK Storm Shadow missile.
This weapon has proven very effective at attacking Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, but stocks are running low – Ukraine want more.
However, this missile is 30 years old, and many of the components are obsolete, so industry cannot easily provide replacement stock.
The West could provide Ukraine with more modern weapons from its inventory or directly from the manufacturers; however, technology is the West’s asymmetric advantage on the battlefield.
There is always a risk that some of the West’s donated weapons will end up on the black market and eventually in the hands of the Russians or Chinese, and the West cannot afford to compromise its own national security.
As a result, the only sustainable way to provide Ukraine with enduring military support is through a coordinated investment in the international defence industrial base.
However, the investment, development, production and testing process all takes time – which Ukraine does not have.
A view shows residential buildings heavily damaged by permanent Russian military strikes in Avdiivka in November 2023. Pic: Reuters
Although Russia has achieved a rare victory by seizing Avdiivka, its military forces suffered very high casualties during the four-month siege of the city.
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Offensive action in the winter is difficult; the cold weather is unforgiving, there is limited natural cover from leaves and foliage, and the ground is frozen making it hard to dig foxholes.
So why was Avdiivka such a priority for Russia?
The 24 February marks the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and President Putin will have been very keen to demonstrate battlefield success to boost the moral of its forces.
Putin will also want to demonstrate progress in his “special military operation” in advance of the Russian presidential elections being held next month.
Ukrainian soldiers fire a French-made CAESAR self-propelled howitzer towards Russian positions near Avdiivka in December 2022. Pic: AP
However, most analysts believe that neither Russia nor Ukraine have sufficient military resources to mount a significant offensive anytime soon, and that the coming year could be characterised by a series of smaller indecisive actions along the frontline.
But, if the West fails to address Ukraine’s desperate need for munitions, that will create a window of opportunity for Russian forces, and one that President Putin might be tempted to exploit.
There are increasing reports of violence and intimidation by Israeli settlers in occupied Palestinian territory.
Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay has been inside the West Bank, where he’s found settlers feeling emboldened since the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel.
With the government largely supporting them, they act with impunity and are in many ways enabled by Israel security forces.
But what are the settlements, and why are they controversial?
What are settlements?
A settlement is an Israeli-built village, town, or city in occupied Palestinian territory – either in the West Bank or East Jerusalem.
The largest, Modi’in Illit, is thought to house around 82,000 settlers, according to Peace Now.
There is also a growing movement of Israelis wanting to build settlements in Gaza.
Settlements are illegal under international law and have been condemned by the UN. They are, however, authorised by the Israeli government.
As well as official, government-approved settlements, there are also Israeli outposts.
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Israeli settlers attack Palestinian villages
These are established without government approval and are considered illegal by Israeli authorities. But reports suggest the government often turns a blind eye to their creation.
Israel began building settlements shortly after the 1967 Six-Day War.
The Etzion Bloc in Hebron, which was established that year, now houses around 40,000 people.
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What is the two-state solution?
According to the Israel Policy Forum, the settlement programme is intended to protect Israel’s security, with settlers acting as the first line of defence “against an invasion”.
The Israeli public appears divided on the effectiveness of the settlements, however.
A Palestinian man walks next to a wall covered with sprayed Hebrew slogans. Pic: Reuters
A 2024 Pew Research Centre poll found that 40% of Israelis believe settlements help Israeli security, 35% say they hurt it, and 21% think they make no difference.
Why are they controversial?
Israeli settlements are built on land that is internationally recognised as Palestinian territory.
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The activists trying to stop Israeli settlers
Sky News has spoken to multiple Palestinians who say they were forced out of their homes by Israeli settlers, despite having lived there for generations.
“They gradually invade the community and expand. The goal is to terrorise people, to make them flee,” Rachel Abramovitz, a member of the group Looking The Occupation In The Eye, told Sky News in May.
Settlers who have spoken to Sky News say they have a holy right to occupy the land.
American-born Israeli settler Daniel Winston told Sky’s chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay: “God’s real, and he wrote the Bible, and the Bible says, ‘I made this land, and I want you to be here’.”
Settlers make up around 5% of Israel’s population and 15% of the West Bank’s population, according to data from Peace Now.
How have things escalated since 7 October 2023?
Since the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent military bombardment of Gaza, more than 100 Israeli outposts have been established, according to Peace Now.
In May, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government approved 22 new settlements, including the legalisation of outposts that had previously been built without authorisation.
Settler violence against Palestinians has also increased, according to the UN, with an average of 118 incidents each month – up from 108 in 2023, which was already a record year.
The UK government has sanctioned two members of Mr Netanyahu’s cabinet, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, for “repeated incitements of violence against Palestinian civilians” – notably in the West Bank.
The UN’s latest report on Israeli settlements notes that in October 2024, there were 162 settler attacks on Palestinian olive harvesters, many of them in the presence of IDF soldiers.
Of the 174 settler violence incidents studied by the UN, 109 were not reported to Israeli authorities.
Most Palestinian victims said they didn’t report the attacks due to a lack of trust in the Israeli system; some said they feared retaliation by settlers or the authorities if they did.
Madonna has urged the Pope to go to Gaza and “bring your light” to the children there.
In a plea shared across her social media channels, the pop star told the pontiff he is “the only one of us who cannot be denied entry” and that “there is no more time”.
“Politics cannot affect change,” wrote the queen of pop, who was raised Catholic.
“Only consciousness can. Therefore I am reaching out to a Man of God.”
The Like A Prayer singer told her social media followers her son Rocco’s birthday prompted her post.
“I feel the best gift I can give to him as a mother – is to ask everyone to do what they can to help save the innocent children caught in the crossfire in Gaza.
“I am not pointing fingers, placing blame or taking sides. Everyone is suffering. Including the mothers of the hostages. I pray that they are released as well.”
Pope Leo XIV leads a Mass for young people in Rome. File pic: AP
Pope Leo has been outspoken about the crisis in Gaza since his inauguration, calling for an end to the “barbarity of war”.
“I appeal to the international community to observe humanitarian law and respect the obligation to protect civilians as well as the prohibition of collective punishment, of indiscriminate use of force and forced displacement of the population,” he said in July.
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WHO chief thanks Madonna
Every child under the age of five in Gaza is now at risk of acute malnutrition, according to UNICEF – “a condition that didn’t exist in Gaza just 20 months ago”.
At the end of May, the NGO reported that more than 50,000 children had been killed or injured since October 2023.
World Health Organisation director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus thanked Madonna for her post, saying: “humanity and peace must prevail”.
“Thank you, Madonna, for your compassion, solidarity and commitment to care for everyone caught in the Gaza crisis, especially the children. This is greatly needed,” he wrote on X.
Sky News has approached the Vatican for comment.
Sky News has obtained shocking CCTV from inside the main hospital in the city of Sweida in southern Syria – where our team found more than 90 corpses laid out in the grounds following a week of intense fighting.
Warning this article shows images of a shooting
The CCTV images show men in army fatigues shooting dead a volunteer dressed in medical scrubs at point-blank range while a crowd of other terrified health workers are held at gunpoint with their hands in the air.
The mainly Druze city of Sweida was the scene of nearly a week of violent clashes, looting and executions last month which plunged the new authorities into their worst crisis since the toppling of the country’s former dictator Bashar al Assad.
The new Syrian government troops were accused of partaking in the atrocities they were sent in to quell between the Druze minority and the Arab Bedouin minority groups.
The government troops were forced to withdraw when Israeli jets entered the fray, saying they were protecting the Druze minority and bombed army targets in Sweida and the capital Damascus.
Men in military fatigues enter the hospital.
The hospital volunteer is seen on the floor moments before he was shot
A second man fires with a handgun
Days of bloodletting ensued, with multiple Arab tribes, Druze militia and armed gangs engaging in pitched battles and looting before a ceasefire was agreed.
The government troops then set up checkpoints and barricades encircling Sweida to prevent the Arab tribes re-entering.
The extrajudicial killing captured on CCTV inside the Sweida hospital is corroborated by eyewitnesses we spoke to who were among the group, as well as other medics in the hospital and a number of survivors and patients.
Body bags in the grounds of hospital
The CCTV is date- and time-stamped as mid-afternoon on 16 July and the different camera angles show the men (who tell the hospital workers they are government troops) marauding through the hospital; and in at least one case, smashing the CCTV cameras with the butt of a rifle.
One of the nurses present, who requested anonymity, told us: “They told us if we talked about the shooting or showed any film, we’d be killed too. I thought I was going to die.”
Dr Obeida Abu Fakher, a doctor who was in the operating section at the time, told us: “They told us they were the new Syrian army and interior police. We cannot have peace with these people. They are terrorists.”
Read more:
Inside Sweida: The Syrian city ravaged by sectarian violence
Who are the Druze and who are they fighting in Syria?
Why Israel is getting involved in Syria’s internal fighting
A destroyed ambulance in Sweida
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Multiple patients and survivors told us when we visited the hospital last month that government troops had participated in the horror which swept through Sweida for days but this is the first visual evidence that some took part in atrocities inside the main hospital.
In other images, one of the men can be seen smashing the CCTV camera with the butt of his rifle – and another is wearing a black sweater which appears to be the uniform associated with the country’s interior security.
One survivor calling himself Mustafa Sehnawi, an American citizen from New Jersey, told us: “It’s the government who sent those troops, it’s the government of Syria who killed those people… we need help.”
Mustafa Sehnawi speaks to Sky’s Alex Crawford
A destroyed tank in Sweida
The government responded with a statement from the interior ministry saying they would be investigating the incident which they “denounced and condemned” in the strongest terms.
The statement went on to promise all those involved would be “held accountable” and punished.
The new Syrian president Ahmed al Sharaa is due to attend the United Nations General Assembly next month in New York – the first time a Syrian leader has attended since 1967 – and what happened in Sweida is certain to be among the urgent topics of discussion.
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