When Nvidia reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the market close Wednesday, it will do so as the world’s third most valuable public company. Investors are giving the company little margin for error.
Nvidia’s stock price has soared fivefold since the end of 2022, as demand has skyrocketed for its graphics processing units that sit at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom. Nvidia’s chips, such as the H100, are used by AI developers to create cutting-edge models like the ones OpenAI used to develop ChatGPT.
The company’s market cap climbed to about $1.8 trillion last week, surpassing Alphabetand Amazon and now trailing only Microsoft and Apple.
“NVDA’s stock appreciation has been parabolic,” analysts at Bank of America wrote in a report Thursday. They reiterated their buy rating and said, “We think one interpretation of this NVDA move is a mix of fear and greed and indiscriminate investor chase for all things AI.”
The other megacap tech companies all reported quarterly results weeks ago. All eyes are now on Nvidia.
Analysts are expecting a startling 240% increase in revenue from a year earlier to $20.6 billion for the period ending Jan. 28, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. For every new dollar of sales the company generates, it’s squeezing out even more profit.
Net income likely surged more than sevenfold to $10.5 billion from $1.41 billion a year earlier. In the third quarter, Nvidia’s gross margin jumped to 74% from 53.6% the prior year.
Outsize growth is expected in Nvidia’s data center business, which includes its AI chips. Analysts project an almost fourfold increase in revenue on an annual basis to $17.06 billion, according to FactSet.
Wall Street will be listening closely to commentary from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for an indication of how long these stratospheric growth rates are expected to last. The company already reported 200% year-over-year growth in the third quarter, and analysts are expecting a similar rate of expansion in the first period of this year.
One potential concern is that many of Nvidia’s GPU sales are going to big tech companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Google. Any or all of them could decide to slow AI hardware spending at some point if they’re not seeing intended benefits.
“All four communicated plans to significantly increase investment in their AI infrastructure this year, which bodes very well for NVDA’s fourth quarter results and 2024 Q1 guidance,” wrote D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria in a note Thursday. He has a neutral rating on the stock with a $410 price target.
However, he warns that the long-term picture for demand from Nvidia’s top customers could be more mixed.
“They referred to their purchasing as ‘flexible’ and ‘demand driven,’ implying they would scale it down if we got past the current hype cycle,” Luria wrote. “While we do not believe we are there yet, we are seeing possible early signs.”
Nvidia’s gaming segment, which includes graphics cards for PCs and laptops and used to be the company’s primary business, is also expected to grow, but at a more measured rate of 49% to $2.72 billion in revenue. Some of Nvidia’s gaming cards are also used by small companies and researchers for AI.
Thomas O’Malley of Barclays said the report will be fairly simple to analyze.
“The [data center] GPU number will be the only key metric that matters along with commentary on broader market adoption,” O’Malley, who has a neutral rating on the shares, wrote Friday. “Most conversations we have center on the sustainability of the current run-rate in [data center], which is approaching $100B per year.”
Other analysts are focused on whether Nvidia has enough supply to meet short-term demand, in part because the company relies on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company for its chips. There’s also budding anticipation regarding the company’s newest top-end AI chip, called B100, which starts shipping this year.
“We are particularly excited about Nvidia’s plans to launch the B100 later in 2024 and the X100 in 2025,” wrote Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes, who recommends buying the stock, in a report last week. “If the upgrade from the A100 to the H100 is any indication, the Total Cost of Ownership benefit for data center operators will be enticing enough to fuel the upgrade and make 2025 a growth year.”
Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon speaks at the Computex forum in Taipei, Taiwan, June 3, 2024.
Ann Wang | Reuters
Qualcomm said on Tuesday that it expects its push into new markets to generate an additional $22 billion per year by 2029.
Of that amount, roughly $4 billion will come from PC chips, Qualcomm said at its investor day on Tuesday. The chipmaker just introduced PC processors earlier this year, when it released Snapdragon X for Windows devices.
The latest forecast marks an important milestone for Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon, who took over the company in 2021 with a promise to get past a reliance on smartphones. In fiscal 2024, Qualcomm’s handset business reported $24.86 billion in sales, about 75% of its entire chip business.
Qualcomm also said on Tuesday that automotive revenues would rise about 175% by 2029 to $8 billion, of which 80% is tied to contracts that have already been secured.
“We have been on this trajectory realizing that the technologies we have developed over the many years can be very relevant to a number of different industries beyond mobile,” Amon said at the investor event.
Another $4 billion in revenue will come from industrial chips and $2 billion will come from chips for headsets, a category Qualcomm calls XR. About $4 billion of the forecast is a catch-all for other chip sales, like those for wireless headphones and tablets.
Qualcomm shares are up 16% this year, trailing the Nasdaq, which has gained 26%.
Qualcomm grew rapidly over the past decade as its modems and processors became essential parts for high-end smartphones, especially those running Google Android. Qualcomm also sells modems and related parts to Apple for its iPhones.
But the company has warned investors that Apple could choose to stop buying Qualcomm parts as soon as 2027. Qualcomm said on Tuesday that its growing businesses will more than offset any losses from Apple.
A Li Auto L9 electric vehicle (EV) is seen displayed at the Qualcomm booth during the first China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE) in Beijing, China November 28, 2023.
Florence Lo | Reuters
Qualcomm’s strategy under Amon has been to use the technology its developed for its handset chips, like modems, processors, and AI accelerators, in new markets, including cars, PCs, and virtual reality. The investor event was the first time in years that the company has given a forecast for those new markets. Qualcomm said its total addressable market is as large as $900 billion.
“We put a strategy in ’21, and we’re not changing our strategy,” Amon said.
Laptop and desktop chips are currently dominated by Intel, which has over 70% percent of the market, according to Mercury Research. Intel reported $29 billion in PC chip sales in its 2023.
“The competitive landscape changed between the Windows and Macs,” Amon said, referring to Apple’s move in 2020 to switch from Intel to its own processors. “We saw that as an opportunity, especially as the ecosystem did not have confidence in the existing players to actually deliver a solution.”
The forecast for XR headsets also hints at the growth potential of the VR market over the next five years. Qualcomm supplies chips to many of the top headset makers, including Meta for its Quest and Ray-Bans products.
When it comes to artificial intelligence, Qualcomm calls itself an “edge AI” company, in contrast to cloud-based AI that’s typically powered by Nvidia processors. Company officials didn’t rule out introducing data center products in an interview with CNBC.
Qualcomm suggested that its mobile chips will be able to run the kind of advanced AI that’s restricted to large server farms today, an indication that that company may benefit from the AI boom down the road as the technology becomes more efficient.
“What you can run on the cloud last year, you can run on the device this year,” Durga Malladi, Qualcomm’s senior vice president in charge of planning, said at the event.
Options on BlackRock’s popular iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) began trading on the Nasdaq Tuesday, ushering in a new way to trade and speculate on the price of bitcoin.
IBIT traded 73,000 options contracts in the first 60 mins of trading Tuesday, Nasdaq told CNBC, placing the fund in the top 20 of the most active nonindex options.
Options trading allows investors to play bitcoin’s notorious volatility by letting them buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price based on whether they anticipate the price will rise or fall in a given period.
“Bitcoin has a lively derivatives market, but in the U.S. it is still tiny compared to other asset classes, and is largely limited to institutional players,” said Noelle Acheson, economist and author of the “Crypto is Macro Now” newsletter. “A deeper onshore derivatives market will enhance the growing market sophistication. This will reinforce investor confidence in the asset, bringing in new cohorts while enabling a greater variety of investment and trading strategies … [That] should, all else being equal, dampen both volatility and downside.”
The market for options contracts on major ETFs can be extremely active, and are widely used by more sophisticated traders. For example, over the past five business days, Interactive Brokers clients have more options orders on the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and the SDPR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) than for the funds themselves, according to data from the brokerage.
The launch of the bitcoin ETF options will likely also lead to new funds that incorporate those options, said Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas.
“Grayscale already did a filing for a covered call [fund], and I’m sure BlackRock will come out with it too. And then we’re going to get buffers, and then we’re going to get whatever other trend-following-type strategy that folks think of. I think the ecosystem’s really going to start to fly here,” Sohn said.
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The stock prices for H&R Block and Intuit fell after a report Tuesday said Trump’s government efficiency team is considering creating a free tax-filing app.
Intuit, which makes the TurboTax tax-filing software, was down 5%, putting it on pace for its worst day since Aug. 23, when the company’s stock price fell nearly 7%. H&R Block was down 8% and on pace for its worst day since 2020.
President-elect Donald Trump’s “Department of Government Efficiency” has held “highly preliminary” discussions about creating the free tax-filing app, The Washington Post reported. The so-called DOGE will not be an official government department but an outside advisory commission. It will be led by billionaire Elon Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and aims to slash government spending.
A DOGE tax-filing app would be a competitor of both H&R Block and TurboTax.
Intuit spokeswoman Tania Mercado didn’t directly address the prospect of a government tax-filing app, but told CNBC in a statement that, “For decades, Intuit has publicly called for simplifying the U.S. tax code so individuals, families, and small businesses can better understand their finances.”
George Agurkis, H&R Block’s director of government relations, said in an email that the company looks forward “to engaging with the new Administration and the Department of Government Efficiency on their ideas related to sound and efficient tax administration.”
It’s unclear where a new DOGE tax app would bridge with newer policies the Biden administration already implemented. Under the Biden administration, the IRS in March rolled out a pilot Direct File program in 12 states, allowing qualified taxpayers to file directly through a government portal. The IRS also offers free filing services through its Free File program for taxpayers who make an adjusted gross income of $79,000 or less.
While both Intuit and H&R Block have free filing options, neither have had stellar records when it comes to transparently offering those services.
The Federal Trade Commission in February filed an administrative complaint against H&R Block for deceptively marketing free filing products and wrongfully deleting users’ in-progress tax data. Intuit, meanwhile, agreed to pay $141 million in restitution “for deceiving millions of low-income Americans into paying for tax services that should have been free,” according to the office of New York Attorney General Letitia James.