Plan A isn’t working, so it’s time for Plan B. Three major legacy automakers are considering a creative approach to staying in the game amid fierce competition from Tesla and Chinese rivals – all in an effort to make cheap EVs, and a whole lot of them.
Volkswagen, Renault, and Stellantis are weighing possibly joining together to make cheaper electric vehicles – fearing it’s their only option. The urgency is growing as European automakers are being far outdistanced by BYD and Tesla. “A business-as-usual approach is a losing option,” reports Bloomberg. Hmm, didn’t anyone get the memo sooner?
Carlos Tavares, CEO of Stellantis told Automotive News Europe that there is a “perfect recognition that in the future, the companies which are not fit to face the Chinese competition will put themselves in trouble.”
Ideas on the table range from “pooling development resources to bundling businesses across European borders to better compete in the once-in-a-generation shift.” Whatever happens, it will happen soon, within months, the report said.
2024 has so far served up a series of obstacles impacting EV sales, and automakers are saying they have been woefully unprepared. Among the issues, some governments have reduced or dropped EV incentives, rental companies are scaling back on EVs, and anti-EV buzz is brewing during what will be a tense election year in the US and Europe. Even Tesla is feeling the burn at this point, with a 20% share low this year wiping out about $150 billion from its market capitalization, more than double VW’s value, Bloomberg writes.
Next challenge is tighter emissions rules coming into effect in the EU next year, meaning it’s do or die for automakers: make more BEVs or pay hefty fines. To get a sense of what’s possible, if not a worst-case scenario, VW could face fines of more €2 billion ($2.2 billion) if it doesn’t reduce fleet emissions, Bloomberg writes.
Meanwhile, BYD plans to show off its latest EVs at the upcoming Geneva Motor Show, including a Mercedes G-Class rival luxury SUV – which is all rather anxiety-inducing among the Europeans.
Renault CEO Luca de Meo has suggested forming an “Airbus of autos” – which refers to the pooling of resources from Germany, France, Spain, and the UK to vie with Boeing – by bringing together three of Europe’s biggest automakers to build cheap EVs, and build them on a large scale.
Still, most analysts agree that 2024 will be a weird year, and that the “slump” in EV sales certainly won’t last – and that the biggest barrier is cost, with consumers needing to spend more on insurance in some cases, as much as twice as much in the UK, alongside higher upfront costs.
VW, Stellantis, and Renault are all (separately) working on new BEVs priced at €25,000 or less, while Mercedes and BMW plan to launch new EVs with improved technology by 2025. VW, which has been plagued with buggy EV software, may need the help more than anyone, despite its massive EV investment after the 2015 Dieselgate scandal.
Electrek’s Take
All roads seem to be leading to a big push from automakers to convince the EU to slow down its ramp-up to EVs, just as is potentially happening in the US – actions that will have a devastating impact on the climate. According to Bloomberg, the EU is already due to review the plans, with automakers getting their lobbyists ready for a fight soon after the European parliamentary elections in June.
Of course, automakers have failed to sort out a working plan in their EV transition, and that is falling on the backs of an entire industry that employs millions of people, and represents 7% of the entire EU economy. Companies such as supplier ZF Friedrichshafen has spent billions to prepare for EVs, but now may slash as much as 20% of its staff as automakers are pulling back on EV production. Meanwhile, thousands of other jobs – the good-paying kind with benefits and protections – are on the line, with Volkswagen cutting thousands of jobs in Germany to slash $11 billion in costs, and auto suppliers in the EU laying off tens of thousands of workers – just this week a major auto supplier for Tesla, VW, and Ford announced it was slashing 10,000 jobs. 2024 will be a bumpy year, indeed.
What about the US? Well, General Motors and Ford are both scaling back EV investments while also indicating that they are “open to partnerships with peers.” Of course, they have more time to play with than their European counterparts, especially if Biden shifts back the EV strategy in the coming months.
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China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) has unveiled its latest battery cell technologies, which charge as quickly as filling up a gas tank while potentially lowering costs without compromise.
CATL has quickly become the world’s largest battery manufacturer by a wide margin. It is one of, if not the biggest, force for advancing electric transportation.
A big part of CATL’s success is due to its advancements in lithium-iron phosphate battery cells, also known as LFP. LFP cells are cheaper than nickel-rich batteries, but they used to have much lower energy density.
The Chinese battery manufacturers managed to close the gap somewhat while maintaining lower costs, resulting in LFP cells becoming popular for entry-level EVs.
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Now, CATL is looking to do the same with sodium-ion batteries.
Like LFP cells, sodium-ion battery cells have the potential to be cheaper than more common Li-ion cells, but they also offer potential for superior performance, particularly in terms of faster charging and longer lifecycles.
CATL has unveiled today Naxtra, its new sodium-ion battery cells, and it claimed some truly impressive specs.
The new cell reportedly achieves an energy density of 175 Wh per kg (385 Wh per lb), on par with the higher-end of LFP battery cells.
The new cells also offer potential for significant safety improvements.
CATL shared several intense stress tests, including drilling into a cell and even cutting it in half without any thermal event:
The next-gen sodium cells could help further lower the cost of electric vehicles without compromising performance, and while increasing safety.
On top of the new Naxtra cell, CATL has also unveiled its next-gen Shenxing LFP battery cells.
Its charge rate is truly impressive. CATL shared several examples of cars charging at around 1,000 kW and maintaining over 500 kW at over 50% state of charge:
The new cell is being described as capable of adding 300 miles (482 km) of range in about 5 minutes – depending on the EV model.
That’s virtually as quick as filling up a tank of gas.
CATL says that the Shenxing will be in 67 electric vehicle models by the end of the year.
New York State has announced an extra $30 million for point-of-sale rebates to lease or buy more than 60 new EV models.
The rebates are available to consumers through New York’s Drive Clean Rebate program, which offers a point-of-sale rebate off the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) of an EV at participating car dealerships in New York State.
The rebate is available in all 62 counties, with the highest rebate of $2,000 available for EVs with a greater-than-200-mile range. (For a 40- to 199-mile range, the rebate is $1,000.) The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) runs the program.
NYSERDA President and CEO Doreen M. Harris said, “Converting to EVs reduces the total cost of vehicle ownership through lower fuel and vehicle maintenance costs, and NYSERDA is proud to help provide New Yorkers with more purchasing power through these rebates.”
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The Drive Clean Rebate program has issued over 190,000 rebates to consumers since 2017, contributing to the more than 280,000 EVs on the road in New York State.
NYSERDA also boosted its EV charging incentives. Through the Charge Ready NY 2.0 program, the state is boosting the cash available for Level 2 charger installations at apartment buildings, workplaces, and hotels from $2,000 to $3,000 per port. And if the chargers go into disadvantaged communities, that amount jumps to $4,000 per port.
New York has racked up over 17,000 public EV chargers, making it second only to California for charger count. On top of that, there are more than 4,000 semi-public stations tucked into workplaces and multifamily buildings across the state.
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LTL carrier ArcBest Freight (ABF) announced plans to add five new Orange EV electric terminal tractors to its existing ZEV fleet, bringing its total deployment of these battery electric HDEVs to 14 … with even more to come.
LTL stands for “Less than Truck Load,” and basically means that, since whatever you’re shipping won’t take up a full container, you can share the costs of shipping with other customers with goods going the same way. You save a little more money and the shipper makes a little more money, making it a rare win-win scenario in the shipping space. And that’s important, because LTL containers amount to a massive 15% of total US shipping.
ABF has been putting Orange EV yard dogs to work in their LTL traffic terminals since their initial deployment of four trucks in June 2022. The company added five more a few years later, and just purchased five more — further underscoring their confidence in the benefits of transitioning their fleet to electric power.
“The Orange EV terminal trucks meet our operational requirements and expectations for safe, reliable, and affordable service and performance,” explains Matthew Godfrey, ABF Freight president. “We’re committed to responsible environmental management, and our investment in EVs aligns with our continuous efforts to enhance efficiency while maintaining exceptional service standards.”
Over at The Heavy Equipment Podcast, we had a chance to talk to Orange EV founder Kurt Neutgens ahead of last year’s ACT Expo for clean trucking. On the show (embedded, above), Kurt explained how his experience at Ford helped inform his design ideology, and that the Orange EV was designed to be cost competitive with diesel options, even without subsidies.
Give it a listen, then let us know what you think of the big yard dogs in the comments.