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US inflation rose 3.1% in January, a hotter-than-expected increase that further stokes doubts as to whether the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this spring.

Last month’s Consumer Price Index — which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services — came in higher than the 2.9% figure economists had expected, according to FacfSet.

Core CPI — a number that excludes volatile food and energy prices — increased 0.4% in January, to 3.9%, after rising 0.3% in December. The figure, a closely-watched gauge among policymakers for long-term trends, was also higher than what economists at FactSet expected.

Dow futures were poised to drop early Tuesday as traders began to unwind bets that the Fed will begin easing rates sooner rather than later.

The latest inflation figure marks a cooldown from December’s stiffer-than-expected 3.4% gain, which dampened hopes on Wall Street that the first of three highly-anticipated interest rate cuts this year could come as soon as March.

“The question is whether or not May 1 remains a possibility if the next series of inflation related data do not edge lower than expected,” said LPL Financial’s chief global strategist, Quincy Krosby.

“This could easily be a one off. But for all those people saying rates are too high, he’s got to cut now,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance, said of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. “What are we waiting for? This is why. This is exactly what Powell was worried about.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics attributed the CPI’s increase to the shelter index, which rose 0.6% on a monthly basis and contributed to two-thirds of the monthly all-items increase. The food index increased 0.4% in January, more than the 0.2% it advanced in December.

The gas index, meanwhile, experienced a handsome 3.3% drop, offsetting increases in the electricity and natural gas indexes, the federal agency said. As of Tuesday, the average price for a gallon of gas in the US is $3.23, according to AAA data.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest CPI report underscores that cash-strapped Americans, who are still dealing with retail prices far above where they were before the pandemic.

Hopes for rate cuts also took a hit with the January jobs report showing the labor market is booming, with US employers adding a staggering 353,000 jobs last month.

The figure blew past the 185,000 jobs economists expected, as the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7% for the third month in a row.

Januarys jobs report was the first major piece of economic data since the Federal Reserves latest policy meeting, when central bankersunanimously decided to keep interest rates at their current 22-year high, between 5.25% and 5.5%.

Considering the jobs report and the CPI, the Fed still “doesnt have a coherent set of criteria for cutting, so for all we know this resets the clock,” according to Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale’s Head of US Rates Strategy.

“If cutting is a confidence game, we dont know when enough progress is enough or whether mild setbacks undermine their confidence.”

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Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has addressed the issue of “shrinkflation” — when businesses cut product sizes but keep prices the same — in a video posted on X ahead of Super Bowl LVIII.

Biden called the practice “a rip-off.”

Im calling on companies to put a stop to this. Lets make sure businesses do the right thing now, he said, though he didn’t offer a solution or policy to address the practice.

Senator Bob Casey in December released a report that showed the impact of smaller product sizes on everything from toilet paper to Oreos.

The report noted that household paper products were 34.9% more expensive per unit than they were in January 2019, with about 10.3% of the increase due to producers shrinking the sizes of rolls and packages.

It said the price of snacks like Oreos and Doritos had gone up 26.4% over the same period, with shrinking portions accounting for 9.8% percent of the increase.

Although inflation appears to be slowing, the economy remains Americans overall top concern, cited by 22% of poll respondents, as they have struggled with inflation and other aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last month.

Since taking office, Biden has made a pitch for lower supermarket prices, pushed drug makers to lower insulin costs, hotel chains to reduce fees and tried to diversify the meat-packing industry after beef prices skyrocketed in the aftermath of the pandemic.

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UK

Eight arrests in connection with two separate terrorism investigations

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Eight arrests in connection with two separate terrorism investigations

Eight men have been arrested by the Metropolitan Police in two unconnected terrorism investigations.

In one operation on Saturday, counter-terror officers arrested five men, four of whom are Iranian nationals. All are in police custody.

The Met said the arrests related to a “suspected plot to target a specific premises”.

In an update shortly after midnight, the force said: “Officers have been in contact with the affected site to make them aware and provide relevant advice and support, but for operational reasons, we are not able to provide further information at this time.”

It added officers were carrying out searches at a number of addresses in the Greater Manchester, London and Swindon areas in connection with the investigation.

It said those detained were:

• A 29-year-old man arrested in the Swindon area
• A 46-year-old man arrested in west London
• A 29-year-old man arrested in the Stockport area
• A 40-year-old man arrested in the Rochdale area
• A man whose age was not confirmed arrested in the Manchester area.

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Commander Dominic Murphy, head of the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, said: “This is a fast-moving investigation and we are working closely with those at the affected site to keep them updated.

“The investigation is still in its early stages and we are exploring various lines of enquiry to establish any potential motivation as well as to identify whether there may be any further risk to the public linked to this matter.

“We understand the public may be concerned and as always, I would ask them to remain vigilant and if they see or hear anything that concerns them, then to contact us.

“We are working closely with local officers in the areas where we have made arrests today and I’d like to thank police colleagues around the country for their ongoing support.”

Terror arrests in separate investigation

Police also arrested three further Iranian nationals in London on Saturday as part of another, unrelated counter terror investigation.

The suspects were detained under section 27 of the National Security Act 2023, which allows police to arrest those suspected of being “involved in foreign power threat activity”.

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Home secretary Yvette Cooper said in a statement: “I want to thank the police and our security services for the action they have taken to keep our country safe.

“Protecting national security is the first duty of government and our police and security services have our strong support in their vital work.”

She added: “These are serious events that demonstrate the ongoing requirement to adapt our response to national security threats.”

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Politics

Pro-crypto Democrats pull support for stablecoin bill in last minute

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Pro-crypto Democrats pull support for stablecoin bill in last minute

Pro-crypto Democrats pull support for stablecoin bill in last minute

A group of US Senate Democrats known for supporting the crypto industry have said they would oppose a Republican-led stablecoin bill if it moves forward in its current form.

The move threatens to stall legislation that could establish the first US regulatory framework for stablecoins, according to a May 3 report from Politico.

Per the report, nine Senate Democrats said in a joint statement that the bill “still has numerous issues that must be addressed.” They warned they would not support a procedural vote to advance the legislation unless changes are made.

Among the signatories were Senators Ruben Gallego, Mark Warner, Lisa Blunt Rochester and Andy Kim — all of whom had previously backed the bill when it passed through the Senate Banking Committee in March.

The bill, introduced by Senator Bill Hagerty, is formally known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act.

Related: Fed’s Powell reasserts support for stablecoin legislation

Senate prepares to vote on stablecoin bill

The Senate is expected to begin floor consideration of the bill in the coming days, with the first vote potentially taking place next week.

The bill has been championed by the crypto industry as a landmark step toward regulatory clarity. However, the Democrats’ about-face reflects growing unease within the party.

Although revisions were made to the bill after its committee approval to address Democratic concerns, the lawmakers said the changes fell short. They called for stronger safeguards related to Anti-Money Laundering, national security, foreign issuers, and accountability measures for noncompliant actors.

The statement was also signed by Senators Raphael Warnock, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ben Ray Luján, John Hickenlooper and Adam Schiff.

Pro-crypto Democrats pull support for stablecoin bill in last minute
A copy of the statement. Source: Alex Thorn

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Senator Angela Alsobrooks were absent from the list, who co-sponsored the bill alongside Hagerty.

Despite their objections, the Democratic senators emphasized their commitment to shaping responsible crypto regulation. They reportedly said they “are eager to continue working with our colleagues to address these issues.”

Related: US banks are ‘free to begin supporting Bitcoin’

Crypto needs a stablecoin bill

On April 27, Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Custodia Bank, criticized the US Federal Reserve for quietly maintaining a key anti-crypto policy that favors big-bank-issued stablecoins, despite relaxing crypto partnership rules for banks.

Long explained that while the Fed recently rescinded four prior crypto guidelines, a Jan. 27, 2023, statement was left intact in coordination with the Biden administration.

The guidance, according to Long, blocks banks from engaging directly with crypto assets and prohibits them from issuing stablecoins on permissionless blockchains.

However, Long noted that once a federal stablecoin bill becomes law, it could override the Fed’s stance. “Congress should hurry up,” she urged.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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UK

Pictured: Boy killed in Gateshead industrial estate fire – 14 children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter

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Pictured: Boy killed in Gateshead industrial estate fire - 14 children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter

Tributes have been paid to 14-year-old Layton Carr who died in a fire at an industrial estate.

Eleven boys and three girls, aged between 11 and 14 years, have been arrested on suspicion of manslaughter after the incident in Gateshead on Friday. They remain in police custody.

Drone view showing the aftermath of a fire at Fairfield industrial park at Bill Quay, Gateshead
Image:
Police were alerted to a fire at Fairfield industrial park in the Bill Quay area

Firefighters raced to Fairfield industrial park in the Bill Quay area shortly after 8pm, putting out the blaze a short time later.

Police then issued an appeal for a missing boy, Layton Carr, who was believed to be in the area at the time.

In a statement, the force said that “sadly, following searches, a body believed to be that of 14-year-old Layton Carr was located deceased inside the building”.

Layton’s next of kin have been informed and are being supported by specialist officers, police added.

Pic: North News and Pictures
Image:
Layton has been described as a ‘beautiful soul’

A fundraising page on GoFundMe has been set up to help Layton’s mother pay for funeral costs.

Organiser Stephanie Simpson said: “The last thing Georgia needs to stress trying to pay for a funeral for her Boy Any donations will help thank you.”

One tribute in a Facebook post read: “Can’t believe I’m writing this my nephew RIP Layton 💔 forever 14 you’ll be a massive miss, thinking of my sister and 2 beautiful nieces right now.”

Another added: “My boy ❤️ my baby cousin, my Layton. Nothing will ever come close to the pain I feel right now. Forever 14. I’ll miss you sausage.”

A third said: “Rest in peace big lad such a beautiful soul taken far to soon my thoughts are with you Gee stay strong girl hear for u always.”

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Detective Chief Inspector Louise Jenkins, of Northumbria Police, also said: “This is an extremely tragic incident where a boy has sadly lost his life.”

She added that the force’s “thoughts are with Layton’s family as they begin to attempt to process the loss of their loved one”.

They are working to establish “the full circumstances surrounding the incident” and officers will be in the area to “offer reassurance to the public”, she added.

A cordon remains in place at the site while police carry out enquiries.

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