British firms’ exports are almost certainly bolstering Russia’s war machine in Ukraine, Sky data analysis finds
British companies are exporting hundreds of millions of pounds of equipment and machinery which almost certainly ends up in Russia, undermining the official sanctions regime and bolstering Vladimir Putin’s war machine, according to data analysis from Sky News.
The items – which include drone equipment, optical supplies and heavy machinery – are being sent to countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Uzbekistan and others, from where they are understood to be forwarded on to Russia.
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The numbers show that despite the sharp fall in the flow of goods to Russia, following the imposition of trade sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine two years ago, large volumes of sensitive, “dual use” British goods are still finding their way to Moscow.
The analysis underlines the scale of Britain’s participation in a shadow economy which helps keep Russia’s military supplied with parts and hardware for the weaponry it uses against Ukraine
Flows of British goods to Russia itself have fallen by 74% since the outbreak of war, following the imposition of sanctions. The vast majority of exports still flowing to Russia are food, medical products or other humanitarian items.
Flows of heavy machinery, electrical equipment and cars have dropped to nearly zero.
Those figures imply the sanctions regime has been incredibly successful, and indeed, a government spokesperson said: “We have implemented the most severe package of economic sanctions ever imposed on a major economy.”
However, closer examination of Britain’s official trade statistics provides an alternative prism.
They show that while UK exports to Russia have fallen sharply, UK exports to a suite of former Soviet satellite states – from Uzbekistan to Georgia – have risen at an unprecedented rate.
British exports to Kyrgyzstan, the small former Soviet satellite state, have risen at a breakneck rate, by over 1,100%. These exports are dominated by the heavy machinery and vehicles which can no longer be sent directly to Russia.
A Europe-wide problem
According to Robin Brooks, former chief economist of financial body the IIF, this is something which has been going on for some time, with other European countries, most notably Germany and Poland, also sending large quantities of hardware to Russia via these Caucasus and Central Asian states.
“They’re clearly getting an order from somewhere that is a Russian satellite that happens to be domiciled in one of these Central Asian countries,” he said.
“What happens then? Maybe there’s plausible deniability, maybe they know… all we know for sure is that the rise in export volumes that is happening is completely insane, and is inconsistent with any underlying data in these countries.
“So the only reasonable explanation is: Russia.
“From the Western European and especially the EU side, I would say, this has been going on for a while. It is at this point widely known in Brussels, and I think there is a key question as to why nothing is being done at a central EU level to stop this?”
British officials argue that they are constantly attempting to tighten the UK sanctions regime. A spokesperson told Sky News: “We also recently announced the creation of a new Office of Trade Sanctions Implementation to strengthen our enforcement of sanctions.
“Any non-compliance with these tough sanctions is a serious offence and punishable through large financial penalties or criminal prosecution.”
Exports to other Russia-adjacent states
However, the scale and breadth of the trade is striking. UK export volumes haven’t just spiked to Kyrgyzstan. They are also up nearly as sharply to Armenia, which, according to Mr Brooks, has recorded a sharp increase in its onward goods exports to Russia.
Doubly worrying is the fact that among the goods being sent to these countries are significant quantities of items considered “dual use” – which can be repurposed into weaponry.
Found in battlefield remains of Russian weapons
The European Union has a list of 45 categories of goods – “common high priority items” as they call them – which have been found in battlefield remains of Russian weapons.
Sky News analysis shows that British exports to four Caucasus and Central Asian states of these goods, which have been documented as being used to kill Ukrainian citizens – have risen by over 500% since the outbreak of war.
The analysis shows that by far and away the biggest category of goods being sent to these four Caucasus and Central Asian nations was “parts of aeroplanes, helicopters or unmanned aircraft” – in other words, equipment which can be used to make drones and other aeronautic units.
British companies have exported £6m worth of these goods to the four countries, above what they historically tend to export to them.
Other items being sent by UK exporters include data processing machines, aeronautic navigation equipment and radio navigation aids.
According to Tom Keatinge of RUSI: “It’s absolutely a red flag if you’re producing that kind of equipment… and you’ve got this big spike in exports to Kyrgyzstan.
“You’ve surely got to stop and ask yourself: why is that? Am I indirectly resourcing the Russian military? And clearly you don’t want to be doing that. And indeed, in doing that, you’re probably in breach of sanctions.
“The tragedy is that whenever the Ukrainians dissect a drone, or a cruise missile or communications equipment that they get their hands on, there are components in those bits of equipment that come from the EU, that come from the UK and come from the US, and have been manufactured since February 2022.
“So these are fresh exports, these are not legacy exports.”
More than 100 politicians from 24 different countries, including the UK, the US and the EU, have written a joint letter condemning China over the “arbitrary detention and unfair trial” of Jimmy Lai, a tycoon and pro-democracy campaigner.
The parliamentarians, led by senior British Conservative MP Alicia Kearns, are “urgently” demanding the immediate release of the 77-year-old British citizen, who has been held in solitary confinement at a maximum security prison in Hong Kong for almost four years.
The letter – which will be embarrassing for Beijing – was made public on the eve of Mr Lai’s trial resuming and on the day after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a G20 summit of economic powers in Brazil.
It also comes as Hong Kong jailed 45 pro-democracy activists.
The group of politicians, who also include representatives from Canada, Australia, Spain, Germany, Ukraine and France, said Mr Lai’s treatment was “inhumane”.
“He is being tried on trumped-up charges arising from his peaceful promotion of democracy, his journalism and his human rights advocacy,” they wrote in the letter, which has been seen by Sky News.
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Starmer meets Chinese president
“The world is watching as the rule of law, media freedom and human rights in Hong Kong are eroded and undermined.
“We stand together in our defence of these fundamental freedoms and in our demand that Jimmy Lai be released immediately and unconditionally.”
Sir Keir raised the case of Mr Lai during remarks released at the start of his talks with Mr Xi on Monday – the first meeting between a British prime minister and the Chinese leader in six years.
The prime minister could be heard expressing concerns about reports of Mr Lai’s deteriorating health. However, he did not appear to call for his immediate release.
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From October: ‘This is what Hong Kong is’
Ms Kearns, the MP for Rutland and Stamford in the East Midlands, said the meeting had been an opportunity to be unequivocal that the UK expects Mr Lai to be freed.
“Jimmy Lai is being inhumanely persecuted for standing up for basic human values,” she said in a statement, released alongside the letter.
“He represents the flame of freedom millions seek around the world.
“We have a duty to fight for Jimmy Lai as a British citizen, and to take a stand against the Chinese Community Party’s erosion of rule of law in Hong Kong.
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“This letter represents the strength of international feeling and commitment of parliamentarians globally to securing Jimmy Lai’s immediate release and return to the UK with his family.”
Mr Lai was famously the proprietor of the Chinese-language newspaper Apple Daily in Hong Kong, which wrote scathing reports about the local authorities and the communist government in mainland China after Britain handed back the territory to Beijing in 1997.
The tabloid was a strong supporter of pro-democracy protesters who took to the streets of Hong Kong to demonstrate against the government in 2019.
But the media mogul was arrested the following year – one of the first victims of a draconian new security law imposed by the Chinese Communist Party.
His newspaper was closed after his bank accounts were frozen.
Mr Lai has since been convicted of illegal assembly and fraud. He is now on trial for sedition over articles published in Apple Daily.
World
Hong Kong jails 45 pro-democracy activists after accusing them of trying to overthrow the city’s government
Forty-five pro-democracy activists have been jailed in Hong Kong’s largest ever national security trial.
The activists sentenced with jail terms ranging from four years to ten years were accused of conspiracy to commit subversion after holding an unofficial primary election in Hong Kong in 2020.
They were arrested in 2021.
Hong Kong authorities say the defendants were trying to overthrow the territory’s government.
Democracy activist Benny Tai received the longest sentence of ten years. He became the face of the movement when thousands of protesters took to the city’s streets during the “Umbrella Movement” demonstrations.
However, Hong Kong officials accused him of being behind the plan to organise elections to select candidates.
Tai had pleaded guilty, his lawyers argued he believed his election plan was allowed under the city’s Basic Law.
Another prominent activist Joshua Wong received a sentence of more than four years.
Joshua Wong was sentenced to more than four years Pic: AP
Wong became one of the leading figures in the protests. His activism started as a 15 year old when he spearheaded a huge rally against a government plan to change the school curriculum.
Then in 2019 Hong Kong erupted in protests after the city’s government proposed a bill that would allow extradition to mainland China. It peaked in June 2019 when Amnesty International reported that up to two million people marched on the streets, paralysing parts of Hong Kong’s business district.
The extradition bill was later dropped but it had ignited a movement demanding political change and freedom to elect their own leaders in Hong Kong.
China’s central government called the protests “riots” that could not continue.
Hong Kong introduced a national security law in the aftermath of the protests.
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A woman is taken away by police outside the court Pic: Reuters
The US has called the trial “politically motivated”.
Dozens of family and friends of the accused were waiting for the verdict outside the West Kowloon Magistrates Court.
British citizen and media mogul Jimmy Lai is due to testify on Wednesday.
Meeting on the sidelines of the G20 in Brazil, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told China’s President Xi Jinping he’s concerned about the health of Lai.
He faces charges of fraud and the 2019 protests. He has also been charged with sedition and collusion with foreign forces.
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