British firms’ exports are almost certainly bolstering Russia’s war machine in Ukraine, Sky data analysis finds
British companies are exporting hundreds of millions of pounds of equipment and machinery which almost certainly ends up in Russia, undermining the official sanctions regime and bolstering Vladimir Putin’s war machine, according to data analysis from Sky News.
The items – which include drone equipment, optical supplies and heavy machinery – are being sent to countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Uzbekistan and others, from where they are understood to be forwarded on to Russia.
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The numbers show that despite the sharp fall in the flow of goods to Russia, following the imposition of trade sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine two years ago, large volumes of sensitive, “dual use” British goods are still finding their way to Moscow.
The analysis underlines the scale of Britain’s participation in a shadow economy which helps keep Russia’s military supplied with parts and hardware for the weaponry it uses against Ukraine
Flows of British goods to Russia itself have fallen by 74% since the outbreak of war, following the imposition of sanctions. The vast majority of exports still flowing to Russia are food, medical products or other humanitarian items.
Flows of heavy machinery, electrical equipment and cars have dropped to nearly zero.
Those figures imply the sanctions regime has been incredibly successful, and indeed, a government spokesperson said: “We have implemented the most severe package of economic sanctions ever imposed on a major economy.”
However, closer examination of Britain’s official trade statistics provides an alternative prism.
They show that while UK exports to Russia have fallen sharply, UK exports to a suite of former Soviet satellite states – from Uzbekistan to Georgia – have risen at an unprecedented rate.
British exports to Kyrgyzstan, the small former Soviet satellite state, have risen at a breakneck rate, by over 1,100%. These exports are dominated by the heavy machinery and vehicles which can no longer be sent directly to Russia.
A Europe-wide problem
According to Robin Brooks, former chief economist of financial body the IIF, this is something which has been going on for some time, with other European countries, most notably Germany and Poland, also sending large quantities of hardware to Russia via these Caucasus and Central Asian states.
“They’re clearly getting an order from somewhere that is a Russian satellite that happens to be domiciled in one of these Central Asian countries,” he said.
“What happens then? Maybe there’s plausible deniability, maybe they know… all we know for sure is that the rise in export volumes that is happening is completely insane, and is inconsistent with any underlying data in these countries.
“So the only reasonable explanation is: Russia.
“From the Western European and especially the EU side, I would say, this has been going on for a while. It is at this point widely known in Brussels, and I think there is a key question as to why nothing is being done at a central EU level to stop this?”
British officials argue that they are constantly attempting to tighten the UK sanctions regime. A spokesperson told Sky News: “We also recently announced the creation of a new Office of Trade Sanctions Implementation to strengthen our enforcement of sanctions.
“Any non-compliance with these tough sanctions is a serious offence and punishable through large financial penalties or criminal prosecution.”
Exports to other Russia-adjacent states
However, the scale and breadth of the trade is striking. UK export volumes haven’t just spiked to Kyrgyzstan. They are also up nearly as sharply to Armenia, which, according to Mr Brooks, has recorded a sharp increase in its onward goods exports to Russia.
Doubly worrying is the fact that among the goods being sent to these countries are significant quantities of items considered “dual use” – which can be repurposed into weaponry.
Found in battlefield remains of Russian weapons
The European Union has a list of 45 categories of goods – “common high priority items” as they call them – which have been found in battlefield remains of Russian weapons.
Sky News analysis shows that British exports to four Caucasus and Central Asian states of these goods, which have been documented as being used to kill Ukrainian citizens – have risen by over 500% since the outbreak of war.
The analysis shows that by far and away the biggest category of goods being sent to these four Caucasus and Central Asian nations was “parts of aeroplanes, helicopters or unmanned aircraft” – in other words, equipment which can be used to make drones and other aeronautic units.
British companies have exported £6m worth of these goods to the four countries, above what they historically tend to export to them.
Other items being sent by UK exporters include data processing machines, aeronautic navigation equipment and radio navigation aids.
According to Tom Keatinge of RUSI: “It’s absolutely a red flag if you’re producing that kind of equipment… and you’ve got this big spike in exports to Kyrgyzstan.
“You’ve surely got to stop and ask yourself: why is that? Am I indirectly resourcing the Russian military? And clearly you don’t want to be doing that. And indeed, in doing that, you’re probably in breach of sanctions.
“The tragedy is that whenever the Ukrainians dissect a drone, or a cruise missile or communications equipment that they get their hands on, there are components in those bits of equipment that come from the EU, that come from the UK and come from the US, and have been manufactured since February 2022.
“So these are fresh exports, these are not legacy exports.”
Two people have died and more than one million people evacuated after a storm bearing down on the Philippines intensified into a super typhoon and made landfall on Sunday.
Fung-wong started battering eastern and central parts of the country, causing power outages, and forcing President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to declare a state of emergency.
One person drowned in Catanduanes and firefighters recovered the body of a woman trapped under the debris of a collapsed home in Catbalogan City, officials said.
A satellite image shows Storm Fung-wong, which has intensified into a super typhoon. Pic: CSU/CIRA & JMA/JAXA/Handout via Reuters
A man walks in the rain with an umbrella as Typhoon Fung-wong approaches, in Cauayan, Isabela, Philippines. Pic: Reuters
Evacuations under way in Quezon province. Pic: Philippine Coast Guard via AP
An evacuation centre in Manila. Pic: Reuters
Packing sustained winds of 115mph and gusts of up to 140mph, Super Typhoon Fung-wong made landfall in Aurora province in central Luzon.
Those living in high-risk villages in northeastern provinces were told to evacuate, including in Bicol, a coastal region vulnerable to Pacific cyclones and mudflows from Mayon, one of the country’s most active volcanoes.
Defence secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr warned Fung-wong could affect a vast expanse of the country, including the capital Manila, and Cebu, the central province hit hardest by the deadly Typhoon Kalmaegi just days ago.
More than 200 people were killed in the earlier typhoon, and around 100 are still missing.
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Filipinos stranded on roofs amid Typhoon floods
Mr Teodoro Jr urged residents to heed evacuation orders, warning refusing to comply was dangerous and unlawful.
“We ask people to pre-emptively evacuate so that we don’t end up having to conduct rescues at the last minute, which could put the lives of police, soldiers, firefighters and coast guard personnel at risk,” he said in a public address.
More than 30 million people could be exposed to hazards posed by Fung-wong, the Office of Civil Defence said.
The projection of the route that will be taken by Super Typhoon Fung-wong by Japan’s national weather agency. Pic: JMA
In Isabela in northern Luzon, dozens of families were sheltering at a basketball court repurposed as an evacuation centre.
“We’re scared,” said Christopher Sanchez, 50, who fled his home with his family. “We’re here with our grandchildren and our kids. The whole family is in the evacuation area.”
Nearly 400 domestic and international flights have been cancelled, according to the civil aviation regulator.
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Deadly tornado tears through southern Brazil
Deadly tornado in Brazil
Meanwhile, a powerful tornado ripped through the southern state of Parana in Brazil – killing at least six and injuring more than 750 people, state officials said on Saturday.
The tornado left a trail of destruction, downing trees, overturning vehicles and damaging buildings.
Roads were also blocked and power lines damaged, with authorities saying around 1,000 people were displaced,
“We will continue to assist the people of Parana and provide all the help needed,” President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wrote on X.
The UK is deploying a specialist Royal Air Force team to help defend Belgium’s skies following a series of sightings of “rogue” drones, the defence secretary and his military chief have revealed.
The ground-based unit will be equipped with kit that can track and take down unmanned aerial systems.
It is not yet clear who is responsible for the drone incursions, which forced the country’s main airport near Brussels to close temporarily and have also impacted Belgian military bases.
However, there are suspicions that they could be linked to Russia.
Other NATO nations have also experienced similar problems, including Denmark and Germany.
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Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, speaking to Trevor Phillips on Sky News, said his Belgian counterpart had called him to request British support.
Queen Camilla looks at counter-drone equipment during a visit to RAF Leeming, Northallerton, in September 2024. Pic: PA
“I had my Belgian opposite number – the chief of the defence staff – in touch with me this week, seeking our help to track and potentially defeat the drones,” he said.
“We agreed with the defence secretary on Friday that we would send our people and our equipment into Belgium to help them with the current problem they have got there.”
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Queen Camilla, who is an honorary air commodore, inspects counter-drone equipment. Pic: PA
John Healey, the defence secretary, said: “When our NATO allies call, we step up. Belgium requested urgent support to counter rogue drone activity at their military bases, so I’ve directed a small team of RAF specialists to deploy immediately.
“As hybrid threats grow, our strength lies in our alliances and our collective resolve to defend, deter and protect our critical infrastructure and airspace.”
The RAF team is trained and equipped to combat drones.
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