Could your city get an MLB expansion team? Breaking down potential top candidates
Major League Baseball expansion is coming — it’s just a matter of when … and where.
While the timeline for MLB to go to 32 teams remains a bit murky, commissioner Rob Manfred recently said he hopes to have a process “in place” for the league to expand to 32 teams before he retires in 2029.
There are plenty of candidates to land one of the franchises when the sport does expand, headlined by a pair of cities that have moved to the front of the line. Is your city one of the places that baseball could be eyeing? We asked our MLB reporters to break down the cases for and against the leading options.
Austin/San Antonio
City population: 961,855 (Austin); 1,434,625 (San Antonio)
Metro area population: 2,421,115 (Austin); 2,655,342 (San Antonio)
TV market rank: 35 (Austin); 31 (San Antonio)
Most likely nickname: Austin has the largest urban bat population so The Austin Bats is a strong option, but they would have to share it with the minor league team in Louisville.
Most likely stadium location: According to Austin journalist Bryan Parker, the area east of the city could work. It includes a newer toll road, and it’s where Tesla has headquarters as well as where the airport is located.
The case for Austin/San Antonio: Because these two cities are so close in proximity, we’ll focus on Austin and San Antonio together for a potential expansion team. With that in mind, the case for Austin isn’t a hard one to make. It’s one of the largest U.S. markets without an existing NFL, NBA or MLB team — and it’s still growing, recently moving into the top 10 in population. It also has an expanding tech and big company community which includes Apple and Amazon, among many others. Austin FC, a Major League Soccer team that began play in 2021, sold out all 17 of its home games in 2022, providing a test case for professional sports in the area. With San Antonio just 90 minutes from Austin — even closer if a stadium were to be built north of the city — the two can potentially combine their reach.
What could stop it from landing a team: Does Matthew McConaughey like baseball? The actor, who has strong ties to the area, helped spearhead the recently built Moody Center where the University of Texas basketball teams now play. A similar commitment could help the concept of Major League Baseball in Austin gain ground, but a local ambassador has yet to emerge.
The biggest obstacle either Austin or San Antonio face in getting a team, might be the Houston Astros — who play just three-plus hours away and have developed a strong fan base in the region. — Jesse Rogers
Charlotte
City population: 874,579
Metro area population: 2,756,069
TV market rank: 21
Most likely nickname: The Charlotte MLB Project lists the Charlotte Aviators as a possibility.
Most likely stadium location: There is no clear choice here. Truist Field, the home of the Triple-A Charlotte Knights, sits uptown with a view of the city’s skyline but seats just over 10,000 fans and was not built to expand to major league capacity.
The case for Charlotte: The Charlotte metro area is bigger than those of some existing MLB teams, including Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Cleveland. Charlotte already has proven it can support multiple professional sports teams — with an NFL, NBA and MLS team all located in the city — and that doesn’t include the NHL’s Carolina Hurricanes, who play just over 2.5 hours away in Raleigh. The Knights, who are the White Sox Triple-A affiliate, also play in the Queen City’s downtown area and ranked 10th in all of the minors in attendance last season.
What could stop it from landing a team: Location. It is extremely unlikely that MLB would add two teams in the same region when it expands, and at the moment, Nashville appears to be at the front of the line to land a team. The Music City has demonstrated more organized interest in bringing an MLB team than Charlotte has, so the Charlotte MLB Project — a movement to bring baseball to Charlotte — would have to kick into high gear to close the gap. — Rogers
Mexico City
City population: 9,209,944
Metro area population: 21,804,515
TV market rank: N/A
Most likely nickname: The Red Devils are a very successful Mexican League team that plays out of the city’s biggest ballpark (Alfredo Harp Helu Stadium), and the locals have thrown around the idea of a future MLB team taking that nickname — though that might not fly given the controversy surrounding the Tampa Bay “Devil Rays’ nickname.
Most likely stadium location: Alfredo Harp Helu Stadium, the place that hosted the first regular-season MLB series in Mexico City last year and will do so again this year (the Colorado Rockies and the Houston Astros will play two games there in late April). The ballpark opened just five years ago, but it has a seating capacity of only about 20,000 and would have to expand in order to host major league teams on a regular basis.
The case for Mexico City: It is right up there with Sao Paulo in Brazil as the largest city in the Western Hemisphere. Mexico City is vibrant, diverse and the people there love baseball, especially after Mexico’s thrilling run through the World Baseball Classic last spring. Tickets for last year’s two-game series between the San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres — which marked MLB’s first regular-season series in Mexico’s capital city — sold out in less than an hour. The atmosphere at those games was electric.
On Opening Day last year more than 30% of MLB rosters were composed of Hispanic players. Because of the interest in the sport in Latin America, putting an expansion team in the region makes too much sense — and having one in Mexico would be far more feasible than having one in Cuba, the Dominican Republic or Venezuela, for a myriad of reasons.
What could stop it from landing a team: A lot, unfortunately, the most prominent reason might be the limits on revenue that can be drawn in a country where its currency is exceedingly volatile and the people who live there earn far less than they do in the United States or Canada. Mexico City’s reputation for high crime rates — whether fair or not — might make it difficult for a team there to attract top-tier free agent talent, as might the fact that the city is located roughly 600 miles south of any U.S. city.
The stadium sits a whopping 7,349 feet above sea level — more than 2,000 feet higher than even Coors Field — but a bigger problem might be that it does not possess a roof, given the amount of rain that falls on Mexico City in the summer months. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred also said leading up to last year’s Mexico City series that he has “never been close to the idea of Mexico as an expansion opportunity.” – Alden Gonzalez
Montreal
City population: 1,762,949
Metro area population: 4,291,732
TV market rank: N/A
Most likely nickname: Expos. This is one part of the process that has never been murky in Montreal, where the vibe among the pro-MLB crowd has always been more “bring back the Expos” than “we want an expansion team.”
Most likely stadium location: This is very much up in the air. The Peel Basin site that had been floated as a possible stadium location has more recently been targeted for housing development. Oversized and under-used Olympic Stadium is set to be renovated, though that appears more for general use than anything Expos-related.
The case for Montreal: After a string of MLB-related disappointments, Montreal needs baseball to make the next first move by launching a formal expansion process. When that happens, we know Montreal can mobilize and do so quickly, perhaps as well as any candidate city. They’ve pulled together studies, pinpointed stadium sites and created the core of a potential ownership group — they’ve even surveyed their fans — all elusive elements of a bid that have to come together at the right time. All of that legwork was for a now-expired bid, but what hasn’t changed is that Montreal remains easily the largest of the leading candidates in market size, a fact that will keep them in the conversation.
“I would look at us as being the most mature of the groups that are out there,” said William Jegher, a Montreal-based executive for Ernst & Young who was a key figure in Montreal’s most recent push for a team. “When baseball launches a process, then we would examine what that process looks like and then make a decision as to whether it makes sense for us to put forth a bid.”
What could stop it from landing a team: The last serious bid to put Montreal forward as an expansion candidate fizzled. The reason for that isn’t because of anything the Montreal Baseball Project did wrong but more a matter of timing — they made a strong case for the city before MLB was really ready to consider the issue. For a couple of years, the bid seemed at least half-successful because of a proposed sister city concept in which Montreal and the Tampa Bay area would have shared the Rays. That notion was ultimately kiboshed by MLB in January, 2022.
After so many disappointments, it may really come down to how much of a thirst for a baseball team remains in a city that, by the time MLB gets the expansion wheels turning, could be a quarter century past the loss of the Expos. In the meantime, it is imperative that those in Montreal still pining for a club keep those fires burning. – Bradford Doolittle
Nashville
City population: 689,447
Metro area population: 2,046,715
TV market rank: 27
Most likely nickname: The Stars (Music City Baseball has branded its pitch around the city’s former Negro Leagues team’s name) and the Sounds (the current name of Nashville’s Triple-A club) are the clear options.
Most likely stadium location: There could be space across the Cumberland River from downtown Nashville, near the Titans’ current and future homes.
The case for Nashville: Based on conversations with high-ranking executives within the sport, it seems close to a fait accompli that Nashville will win one of the next expansion teams. When the owners actually form a committee to study the possible growth from 30 to 32 teams, they will talk about how Music City is already a major league city, with the NFL’s Titans and NHL’s Predators and tremendous population growth, in a part of the country that is wild about sports. For example: The area leadership just committed $2.1 billion — that’s probably more than the cost of an expansion franchise — for a new Titans stadium.
What could stop it from landing a team: Nashville is not necessarily close to Cincinnati, St. Louis or Atlanta, but the major league teams from those cities will probably cringe at the idea of having pieces of their respective fan nations shaved off — though those concerns would probably not preclude Nashville from getting a team. – Buster Olney
Orlando
City population: 307,573
Metro area population: 2,764,182
TV market rank: 17
Most likely nickname: The group trying to bring baseball to the city has branded itself the Orlando Dreamers, “a nod to Walt Disney and Arnold Palmer and the many other visionaries who helped develop this area,” according to their website. Something Disney-related — similar to the NHL’s Anaheim Ducks — seems like a likely option.
Most likely stadium location: With the available hotel and land space along with a constant flow of visitors, it would make sense to put a park near Disney World.
The case for Orlando: It is already a major league city, with the NBA’s Magic in town since 1989, and Orlando is much bigger than places like Cleveland and Cincinnati that already have MLB teams.
After trial and errors with the Marlins and the Rays in the state, you’d assume that any ballpark project would be well-placed and include a necessary roof to combat Florida’s seemingly daily wave of late-afternoon showers. A family could cap off a day of rides at theme parks by catching a big league game.
What could stop it from landing a team: The history of the Marlins and Rays, franchises that have already struggled badly for attention. The two teams have consistently been at or near the bottom of the majors in attendance, and so the idea of dropping a third team into the state makes some executives queasy. “There’s no way you’d put a third team in Florida,” said one evaluator. “No way.” – Olney
Portland
City population: 652,503
Metro area population: 2,509,140
TV market rank: 22
Most likely nickname: Former Nike executive Craig Cheek and former Trail Blazers broadcaster Mike Barrett head the Portland Diamond Project and have decided to avoid a team name for now.
“We’ll involve the fans in that, for sure,” Barrett said. The Portland Beavers were the longtime Pacific Coast League team — but that’s also the nickname of the Oregon State University sports teams, so a different name seems likely.
Most likely stadium location: Cheek and Barrett believe this is one of their group’s top selling points, as they’re zeroing in on 164 acres at what is now the RedTail Golf Center in suburban Beaverton located about a mile from Nike headquarters. How does Swoosh Stadium sound?
“You get to dream big when you have 164 acres,” Cheek said, and the PDP is envisioning a sports, entertainment and business complex that would be the largest ballpark district in America and more than twice the size of The Battery ballpark development that has been a major success for the Atlanta Braves. The state also has about $300 million in state bonds to issue to support a stadium project (paid for with a “jock tax”).
The case for Portland: If MLB puts one team in the West and one in the East, that makes Portland a front-runner. Portland is also the largest market in the country with just one of the four major pro sports teams. “We’re an underserved sports market,” Barrett says. The Trail Blazers have been enormously popular for decades and both the men’s and women’s soccer teams in MLS and the NWSL play to sellout crowds.
With MLB likely to realign to eight divisions of four teams after expansion, a Portland team would also create a natural rival for the Seattle Mariners and make travel easier for the rest of the league. “MLB loves its rivalries,” Barrett points out.
While the Beavers last played to meager crowds in 2010 (finishing last in the PCL in attendance), the PDP has a mailing list of 75,000 people, with two-thirds of those fans saying they would be willing season-ticket buyers. “PDX” baseball merchandise — with a “P” logo from the original Portland minor league team from the late 1800s — has been a big seller. “I don’t think any of the other cities out West have put in as much time or energy and are as turnkey ready as we are,” Cheek said.
What could stop it from landing a team: Besides concerns about whether Portland is a baseball city, who is the owner? Cheek and Barrett say they have local investors attached to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars, and once a real estate deal is secured, they will announce an ownership. You can expect some real estate developers to be involved (along with NFL quarterback Russell Wilson and wife Ciara, who are already investors). – David Schoenfield
Raleigh
City population: 467,665
Metro area population: 1,484,338
TV market rank: 23
Most likely nickname: The “Bring MLB to Raleigh” group has avoided any nickname possibilities, sticking with a “919” area code logo and black-and-white color schematic for its website. A team could even go with “Raleigh” or “Carolina” (like the NHL Hurricanes). One name that did pop up during a team concept event was the Raleigh Capitals, the name of various minor league teams from 1900 through 1967.
Most likely stadium location: There are three possible sites under discussion, but the favorite may be an 80-acre area of open land around PNC Arena, home of the Hurricanes. Billionaire Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon just signed a 20-year lease with the arena, has the right to develop the land — and, oh, is now the money man behind the potential MLB bid.
The case for Raleigh: The push for Raleigh began as a bottom-up, community-driven idea. Only later were Charlie Perusse, a former North Carolina state budget director with the necessary political connections, and Dundon brought on board. Governor Roy Cooper has also publicly supported Raleigh over Charlotte. It helps that Raleigh is one of the few cities with a deep-pocketed owner already on board.
Lou Pascucci, one of the founders of the community group, points to Raleigh’s demographics as a surprising positive. The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Triangle population is over 2.1 million and growing rapidly, with the highest median income of any metro area without an MLB team. With Charlotte, North Carolina has two TV markets in the top 50, and a population (11 million) larger than Tennessee (7 million) or Utah (3.4 million).
“We have some of the strongest market viability metrics, we have vocal government support, we have a lot of exciting land options, we have a loud, passionate community movement, and we have Tom Dundon leading the charge,” Pascucci said.
What could stop it from landing a team: Nashville is the sexier pick and probably the favorite among the Eastern cities. Is there enough corporate support? “I don’t think Tom Dundon believes that’s a problem,” said Pascucci, pointing out the Hurricanes were second in the NHL in attendance in 2022-23.
“If you don’t live here, people would be surprised at how rich the baseball culture is in The Triangle,” Pascucci said. “If we end up getting a team, the Triangle and Raleigh would be listed next to St. Louis and Cincinnati for their passion as a baseball city.” — Schoenfield
San Jose
City population: TK
Metro area population: 1,938,524
TV market rank: 10
Most likely nickname: The mayor’s office of San Jose kicked around some names recently, including: Spirit (partly an homage to the Winchester Mystery House, considered one of the most haunted places in the world); Bees (the name of the city’s original Class A team, though also fitting with the A’s leaving); Sol (in honor of the city’s Hispanic heritage); and Innovators (for the city’s tech hub). This was basically just a brainstorming exercise, however.
Most likely stadium location: While trying to get the A’s to relocate to San Jose roughly 10 years ago, the city released renderings for a new ballpark in the downtown area, near the corner of South Montgomery Street and Park Avenue. Google then purchased that land as part of its desire to build an 80-acre campus — a project that has since stalled — but local officials say there are still a handful of other potential, city-owned sites downtown that can support a major league ballpark.
The case for San Jose: The Bay Area is plenty big enough to support two baseball teams; many would argue, actually, that it’d be absurd if that weren’t the case. San Jose is the biggest city in the Bay Area and more than four times the size of Oakland. It’s nestled within Silicon Valley, surrounded by the biggest tech companies in the world, and produces more than $400 billion annually in gross domestic product. A $12 billion project is underway to extend the BART transit system into the city. In other words, there are major revenue opportunities in this city. Not to mention a major void with the A’s on the verge of leaving Oakland.
What could stop it from landing a team: Territorial rights. The San Francisco Giants own the territorial rights for Santa Clara County, blocking any major league franchise trying to move into that area. It was essentially gifted to them in 1990 for the purposes of building a new stadium and stayed with them. It’s a rather unique situation. Stripping the Giants of those rights would require approval from three-quarters of MLB’s owners — a hurdle San Jose’s elected officials have been unable to clear.
They tried to about 10 years ago, taking the case all the way to the Supreme Court in an effort to get the A’s to relocate to their city, but judges sided with MLB. In June of last year, San Jose mayor Matt Mahan and four former mayors sent a letter to MLB commissioner Rob Manfred outlining why they believe their city should be a leading candidate for expansion and why its circumstances are unfair. Manfred stated he was simply focused on the Las Vegas situation at the moment. City officials continue to believe they’ll have a team someday. — Gonzalez
Salt Lake City
City population: 199,723
Metro area population: 1,266,191
TV market rank: 29
Most likely nickname: There isn’t really a leading candidate yet, though possibilities abound. This could eventually come down to one of those “name the team” contests and until we are much further down the expansion road, fun speculation over the name will be a way to keep baseball on the radar in Salt Lake City. The traditional name of the minor league club — the Bees — dates back to 1915, but has been changed at various times as teams have come and gone.
Other monikers that have been used include Buzz, Gulls and Stingers. New ideas that have been floated: Pioneers, Bison, Outlaws, Saints and Cutthroats. (The Utah state fish is the cutthroat trout.)
Also, a team would likely follow the path of the NBA’s Jazz by adopting the state name, so Utah Bees would be more likely than an MLB version of the Salt Lake City Bees. A stadium name would probably end up with a corporate name, but calling it The Beehive would be fun.
Most likely stadium location: In terms of mixed-used development, imagine a Salt Lake City version of The Battery project that spurred the Braves’ relocation to the Atlanta suburbs a few years ago. Big League Utah has targeted a site that area developers have long coveted between the city’s downtown and airport, a 100-acre parcel currently tabbed as The Power District. It’s just off I-80 and easily accessible by public transit lines, rail and bus. The highway location would make it a convenient destination throughout the region, especially for those from nearby Park City and other cities like Provo and Ogden. The aesthetics of the site would potentially be unmatched in MLB, as it’s abutted by the Jordan River and a stadium would feature views of the downtown skyline and, beyond that, the Wasatch Mountains.
The case for Salt Lake City: Don’t sleep on Salt Lake City, which has hosted the Olympics once already and is a strong candidate to do so again. The city and the state have built an impressive track record of getting large-scale, community-enhancing projects done with an unusual degree of public and private sector synergy.
Until Big League Utah was launched last year, Salt Lake City wasn’t often mentioned as a possible MLB locale. Since then, because the effort has been so thorough and so many preliminary boxes have already been checked, that once you dig into the specifics, the question becomes more: Why not Salt Lake City?
“We have the fastest-growing state, the youngest state, we have a shovel-ready ballpark site with community support and we have a proven ownership group that has experience and is passionate about the sport of baseball,” said Larry H. Miller Company CEO Steve Starks, who is heading up the expansion charge. “All of those factors make Utah the ideal expansion market.”
What could stop it from landing a team: The sports community in Salt Lake City is strong, as evidenced by attendance and television ratings figures from the Jazz, University of Utah and Brigham Young University. The dedication of those fans would need to outweigh a market size that would be in the lower ranks of MLB. Early polling has been enthusiastic about the prospect of joining MLB. As the process continues, the biggest hurdle may be getting MLB’s decision makers to see Salt Lake City not just as a growing, high-functioning sports market, but a real baseball town. If the Oakland Athletics were to choose Utah as a temporary home, that might go a long way toward fast-tracking that process. –Doolittle
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The 2025-26 NHL season has reached its quarter mark, with all 32 teams having played more than 20 games.
As usual, there are some positive surprises — looking squarely at the Pittsburgh Penguins and Anaheim Ducks — as well as the not-so-positive surprises, including the Toronto Maple Leafs, St. Louis Blues and Vancouver Canucks.
But, how does each team grade out on its report card for the first 25% of the season? Here’s a rundown of what has gone right, what has gone wrong and a first-quarter letter grade for all 32 clubs.
Note: Teams are listed alphabetically by letter grade. Ryan S. Clark graded the Pacific and Central Division teams, and Kristen Shilton graded the Metropolitan and Atlantic Division teams. Stats are through the games of Nov. 23.
A grades
Preseason over/under: 103.5
Current points pace: 137.9
What has gone right? They lead the NHL in goals per game while also giving up the fewest goals per game. They’re generating the most scoring chances per 60 minutes, shots per 60 and scoring chances per 60 in 5-on-5 play. Their defensive structure has made them a top-10 team in terms of the fewest shots allowed per 60 and fewest high-danger chances per 60.
Nathan MacKinnon is in a position to win his second Hart Trophy. Cale Makar could win his third Norris Trophy — and could challenge MacKinnon for the Hart. They now appear to have the supporting cast capable of providing consistent contributions.
The Avs might be the best team in the NHL. And at their current pace, they could threaten, if not surpass, the Bruins’ record of 135 regular-season points set in the 2022-23 regular season.
What has gone wrong? Leading the NHL with 4.00 goals per game comes with the assumption that the Avs can score in any situation. But, the Avs are struggling when it comes to consistently scoring goals on the power play. Entering Monday, the Avs had a bottom-10 power-play unit that was converting on only 15.7% of its opportunities.
Grade: A+
Preseason over/under: 83.5
Current points pace: 108.1
What has gone right? They’re fighting for the Pacific Division crown. They have the second-most prolific attack in terms of goals per game. They’re continuing to see their young talent grow all while offseason addition Chris Kreider had 14 points in his first 15 games.
But what might be the strongest indication of just how well the Ducks are doing this season is Leo Carlsson‘s projected scoring pace. A Ducks player has finished with more than 100 points in a season only four times in franchise history. Carlsson is not only on pace to join a list with Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne, but he’s projected to finish with 108 points. That places Carlsson in a position to have what could be one of the best individual seasons in team history, and threaten Selanne’s franchise record of 109 points.
What has gone wrong? An overreliance on Lukas Dostal in the defensive zone. Dostal has started 17 of the Ducks’ first 22 games. It’s a pace that has him projected to play 63 games — which is the sort of workload reserved for top-tier goalies such as Connor Hellebuyck, Juuse Saros and Andrei Vasilevskiy.
But there’s also the underlying numbers. The Ducks are in the top three in terms of most scoring chances allowed, shots against and high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60, per Natural Stat Trick. It’s a contrast from Dostal posting a 5.42 goals saved above expected, which is sixth among goalies with more than 10 games.
Grade: A
Preseason over/under: 103.5
Current points pace: 111.8
What has gone right? Glen Gulutzan’s second stint in charge of the Stars could be defined by perspective. There are some questions why the Stars are in the bottom 10 in scoring chances per 60, shots per 60 and high-danger scoring chances per 60. But there are also those who would argue that maybe it’s just a sign of efficiency. The Stars have the NHL’s No. 2 power-play unit, and are also 10th in goals per game.
It’s a promising return on a season that began with questions about how they would fare under a new coach, while taking into account that they lost three forwards in Evgenii Dadonov, Mikael Granlund and Mason Marchment in the offseason.
What has gone wrong? There has been a bit of a disconnect with how the Stars perform in the defensive zone in 5-on-5 play compared to the penalty kill. They’re among the top 10 teams in fewest goals allowed per game, and high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60. They are also sitting around league average in allowing the fewest shots per 60. Yet their PK hasn’t been up to par, with a success rate of 75.7%, which is in the bottom 10 in the NHL.
Grade: A
Preseason over/under: 84.5
Current points pace: 100.6
What has gone right? Detroit is having its best start in a decade, and it’s not for one reason in particular. This is a group effort delivering on GM Steve Yzerman’s vision for the Red Wings as a high-skilled, defensively responsible team. Head coach Todd McLellan is maximizing Detroit’s potential in his first full season.
The defensive buy-in isn’t only reflected in stats — such as how the Red Wings average among the fewest shots against per game this season — but in how skaters such as Dylan Larkin are thriving. The Red Wings’ captain leads the team in goals and points and has provided invaluable leadership to the equally impressive rookie forwards Emmitt Finnie and Nate Danielson.
On the back end, rookie Axel Sandin-Pellikka has been an important presence, and provided Detroit with the depth it needed to be among the Atlantic’s best.
What has gone wrong? The Red Wings have leaned on a strong power play this season; it’s their even-strength scoring that can improve. It won’t be sustainable for Detroit to rely on the extra man to see it through.
Although the Red Wings have shored up collectively on defense, they’re still giving up over three goals against per game, which speaks in part to their goaltending. Cam Talbot has been better this season than last but John Gibson — Yzerman’s big offseason acquisition — hasn’t been any sort of savior. The Red Wings have to hope that tandem can be a difference-maker for them from here.
Grade: A
Preseason over/under: 84.5
Current points pace: 99.8
What has gone right? Let’s start with the obvious: Matthew Schaefer. The rookie defenseman arrived better than advertised after New York selected him No. 1 in the 2025 draft. Schaefer is electric at both ends of the ice, and takes on important minutes (over 22 per game) that shows how much confidence coach Patrick Roy already has in the Calder Trophy favorite.
And he’s not the only exciting rookie that has Islanders fans buzzing. Maxim Shabanov delivered a breakout three-point performance to cap off a recent 6-1-0 trip, illustrating why New York coveted the former KHL player (and why he’s likely to earn a promotion from the fourth line).
Beyond those two skaters, the Islanders are getting solid goaltending from Ilya Sorokin and David Rittich and, for a team that has consistently searched for more offense, New York is top 10 in the NHL in goals, on the efforts of Bo Horvat (having his best start in years) and a healthy Mathew Barzal and Kyle Palmieri.
What has gone wrong? The Islanders aren’t packing a potent power play (it’s among the league’s worst) and there’s concern that their offense might be too top-heavy to keep pace with deeper clubs. New York also just lost one of its best defensemen — Alexander Romanov — for five to six months after shoulder surgery following a hit from Dallas’ Mikko Rantanen.
Given how the Islanders have exceeded expectations so far, it’s hard to nitpick what else hasn’t worked for them in the grand scheme of the first quarter.
Grade: A
Preseason over/under: 77.5
Current points pace: 97.6
What has gone right? Pittsburgh is arguably one the season’s most surprising contenders. Few would have picked the Penguins to be in the Eastern Conference playoff mix at the season’s quarter mark.
This is a different Penguins’ team under first-year head coach Dan Muse, who is pushing all the right buttons. Muse’s system brings out the best in Pittsburgh’s skaters by giving them freedom to operate, and that has paid off in the Penguins’ growing confidence. Pittsburgh is giving up the second-fewest goals this season, ranks top 10 in offense and has the league’s best power play. The Penguins’ goaltending has benefitted from the emergence of Arturs Silovs and an improved Tristan Jarry. Basically, it has been all systems go for Pittsburgh.
What has gone wrong? The Penguins have a problem closing out certain games — namely, those stretching beyond regulation. Pittsburgh is 0-4 this season in overtime and the shootout, something Muse has sought to address with practice drills focused on the club’s 3-on-3 work. The standings this season are closer than ever, and leaving points on the board that often is a small area Pittsburgh can clean up.
Rickard Rackell is out for two months because of a broken hand sustained in October, and that will will continue to affect the Penguins’ depth. Jarry going on injured reserve earlier this month was a blow too, and will test Pittsburgh’s resilience.
Grade: A
Preseason over/under: 105.5
Current points pace: 111.8
What has gone right? Carolina isn’t the league’s most exciting team, but it’s one of its best for a reason. The Hurricanes thrive in head coach Rod Brind’Amour’s structure that emphasizes smothering defensive play. Their offense has really excelled this season though, ranking second overall thanks to a potent Seth Jarvis — who leads the team in goals — a slippery Sebastian Aho — pacing Carolina in points — and the always-steady Jordan Staal.
Goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov has been excellent in net amid starter Frederik Andersen‘s tough start. Overall, the Hurricanes are deep, detailed and disciplined. It’s no wonder they have lost consecutive games only once this season.
What has gone wrong? The Hurricanes haven’t thrived on special teams. Their power play is the worst in the league, and they’re 21st on the penalty kill. It’s a stark reality given how Carolina can dominate at even-strength (it ranks third in 5-on-5 goals) and might be a temporary glitch if Brind’Amour can figure out why the man advantage especially is such a momentum killer.
Carolina also has a goaltending conundrum with Andersen. The often-injured veteran has already dealt with a concussion this season and his numbers have been poor when he is available. Kochetkov can’t be expected to carry the load entirely, so Carolina will need to either get Andersen on track or search for further goaltending options.
Grade: A-
Preseason over/under: 99.5
Current points pace: 105.4
What has gone right? New Jersey’s star-studded offense has been producing at a solid rate this season — Jack Hughes had 20 points through 17 games, Jesper Bratt had 21 through 21 and Nico Hischier is still capable of being one of the league’s premier two-way centers.
The Devils’ goaltending is another strength because of veteran Jake Allen, who has been excellent handling an increased workload this season. Meanwhile, defenseman Simon Nemec has blossomed after taking a bit longer to hit his stride than some expected after he went No. 2 in the 2022 draft. He has taken on a heavy workload, and that has only amplified how good he can be in the Devils’ own end as well as jumping into the rush.
What has gone wrong? The Devils just wanted to have a pleasant team dinner in Chicago — and instead, the night ended with Hughes requiring surgery on his finger after a freak accident at the restaurant. Having Hughes healthy is (almost) all New Jersey needs to be a Stanley Cup contender, and now that he’s out for multiple weeks (along with Cody Glass and Brett Pesce) the Devils will be dipping into their depth to cover.
Speaking of depth, it’s a good thing Allen has been so hot to start the season because Jacob Markstrom has not. With Hughes out now, it’s even more imperative that New Jersey finds ways to keep scoring and not expose Allen to an onslaught that wears him down.
Grade: A-
B grades
Preseason over/under: 80.5
Current points pace: 88.8
What has gone right? The Bruins were supposed to be Atlantic Division basement dwellers. But — plot twist — they’ve actually been one of its top contenders. Full credit to first-year head coach Marco Sturm for implementing a defense-first structure that Boston has embraced enough to mitigate some of the sting from top center Elias Lindholm sitting out most of the season to date because of a lower-body injury.
Defenseman Nikita Zadorov has been particularly strong, bringing a bruising presence to the Bruins’ blue line. Boston has also benefitted from Jeremy Swayman‘s return to form this season, and the team is top 10 on both the power play and penalty kill. The Bruins weren’t expected to be a powerhouse up front, but David Pastrnak has been his usual dynamic self and Morgan Geekie is a budding offensive star.
What has gone wrong? Injuries are adding up. Defenseman Charlie McAvoy is out indefinitely after taking a puck to the face, and all of Casey Mittelstadt, Viktor Arvidsson and Jordan Harris also have been sidelined of late. The Bruins have overachieved out of the gate, but it doesn’t feel sustainable if skaters such as Lindholm and McAvoy are sitting out extended time and the rest of the league gets healthy enough to catch up.
Even with Sturm’s messaging and Swayman’s solid play, the Bruins are still bottom 10 in goals against, and that’s not an encouraging stat now that McAvoy won’t be around to anchor the back end. The Bruins need consistency, and could struggle to find it.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 67.5
Current points pace: 89.5
What has gone right? Think about the issues the Blackhawks faced last season. Many of them have become the bedrock for a team that’s in the running for the NHL’s biggest surprise through the first quarter of the regular season.
The questions about Connor Bedard have been replaced with another set of questions: Will he make Canada’s Olympic team while also possibly winning a scoring title? Bedard is on pace for 116 points and if that holds, it’ll be the highest-scoring season of any Blackhawks player not named Denis Savard. Plus, any of the concerns about their veterans’ struggles from last season have been erased by what they’re doing this season.
Though Bedard is generating a lot of attention, the goaltending could signify just how much has changed with the Blackhawks from last season. They finished with a team save percentage of .894 in 2024-25 but have begun this season with a .911 mark through the first 22 games, tied for fourth in the NHL. Spencer Knight is presenting his case for why he could be under Olympic consideration for Team USA.
What has gone wrong? Finding cohesion within their defensive structure remains a bit of an issue. Make no mistake, the Blackhawks were expected to encounter some challenges on the defensive end due in part to being what Elite Prospects lists as the third-youngest team in the NHL this season. Their top-four defensemen, in terms of minutes played, are younger than 24, and two of them are rookies.
Having that much youth along with the Blackhawks’ structure has played a role in why they are in the bottom four of scoring chances allowed per 60, high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60 and shots allowed per 60 in 5-on-5 play through their first 22 games.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 90.5
Current points pace: 97.6
What has gone right? Montreal didn’t think rookie goalie Jakub Dobes would be a backbone to their early-season success, but the rising star became exactly that by outperforming starter Sam Montembeault as one of the league’s breakout netminders. Dobes has been aided by the Canadiens’ more consistent defensive effort. Montreal didn’t pay enough attention on that end of the ice last season, and it hurt them. Now, the Canadiens have been stronger through the neutral zone and played with tighter gaps to limit rush chances.
The Canadiens’ top skaters have also delivered, with Cole Caufield already notching 13 goals and Nick Suzuki compiling 22 points in his first 20 games.
What has gone wrong? The Canadiens have regressed recently after their impressive start. Dobes and Montembeault have both been below average and Montreal’s confidence appears shaken by lopsided losses (like a 7-0 defeat against Dallas) that call into question all the strides they appeared to have made across the board.
Injuries also continue to take their toll, with Kaiden Guhle, Kirby Dach, Patrik Laine and Alex Newhook all out for significant stretches. Montreal was a surprise playoff team last season but showed it was no fluke given how well they started this season. To stay in that conversation means Montreal has to rely on its depth and not lose sight of those difference-making defensive details.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 83.5
Current points pace: 102.5
What has gone right? Philadelphia is right in the Eastern Conference’s mushy middle and that’s not so bad if you’re the Flyers. Rick Tocchet’s group is finding ways to win hockey games with solid defensive play — they’ve hovered near the top 10 in goals against per game. That has rubbed off on their penalty kill too, which is near the top of the league.
Goaltender Dan Vladar has been a surprisingly reliable starter, going from a tandem option with Samuel Ersson to a backbone of Philadelphia’s whole operation.
Another pillar is defenseman Travis Sanheim, who has been in superb command of the Flyers’ blue line. And up front, Trevor Zegras — acquired in the offseason to bolster Philadelphia’s center depth — is averaging over a point per game to lead the Flyers’ offense along with Travis Konecny.
What has gone wrong? The Flyers have a good pool of forwards, but they aren’t producing at a high enough rate. Philadelphia is 26th in goals per game this season, and its power play is operating below 20%. Though Vladar and the team’s collective defensive approach has put the Flyers in a solid position for now, it won’t last unless they can find more contributors on the score sheet.
Specifically, Matvei Michkov has taken a step back this season — with only nine points in his first 19 games — and Philadelphia is still searching for consistency throughout the lineup. There’s also the issue of Ersson, and whether he can support Vladar as the season progresses. Some nights Ersson can pass the eye test, but if Vladar stumbles or gets hurt, they’ll be counting on the backup to step up.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 70.5
Current points pace: 89.1
What has gone right? Any conversation around the Sharks at this moment is one that requires a level of nuance.
Their current projection has them on pace to finish with more than 80 points for the first time since the 2018-19 season, which was also their last playoff appearance. They’ve seen progress from their young core of Yaroslav Askarov, William Eklund and Will Smith while their veterans continue to help in ways that can and can’t be measured.
Then there’s an entirely different conversation that can be had about Macklin Celebrini. Yes, Celebrini has been so good that he is among the league leaders in points and could be playing his way on to Canada’s Olympic team. Yet what might get lost in the discussion around Celebrini is the idea he could end up having the greatest individual season in Sharks history. He’s currently on pace for 121 points, and if that holds, he’d surpass Joe Thornton for the most in a single season (114).
What has gone wrong? The six-game losing streak to start the season. They gave up more than three goals in each of those defeats, which only amplified what it meant to begin the season in a hole. It was a streak that also played a role in why the Sharks are in the bottom 10 in goals per game, goals allowed per game and have the 11th-worst penalty kill.
To put it another way: Since the losing streak ended on Oct. 23, the Sharks have the fourth-most points in the NHL
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 78.5
Current points pace: 104.4
What has gone right? Only the Rangers have committed a higher percentage of their active salary cap space to their goalies than the Kraken. The early returns of that investment are one of the major reasons why the Kraken are actively fighting for a playoff spot at the moment.
Natural Stat Trick’s metrics show that the Kraken were leading the NHL in team save percentage in 5-on-5 play as of Monday, and were tied for fourth in team save percentage in all situations. Joey Daccord, Philipp Grubauer and Matt Murray have provided a continuity in net that has complemented the Kraken’s defensive structure.
Lane Lambert’s first season as coach has seen the Kraken reestablish their defensive identity as one of the stronger teams in the NHL at limiting high-danger scoring chances per 60, and scoring chances per 60 in 5-on-5 play.
What has gone wrong? Giving up 2.59 goals per game has made the Kraken one of the harder teams to score against this season. But scoring 2.55 goals per game will make it harder for the Kraken to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. The margins have been so tight that they had identical numbers when it came to goals scored per game and goals allowed per game as recently as Friday. Having such little margin for error is part of a larger composite that illustrates how the Kraken have struggled to score goals and find ways to generate those opportunities for goals.
There are only three teams in the NHL that are averaging fewer goals per game than the Kraken. It’s a process that has been made even more difficult by the fact that the Kraken are last in scoring chances per 60, shots per 60 and high-danger chances per 60. And yet, they entered Monday just a point behind the Ducks for first place in the Pacific Division — having been in a wild-card spot just four days earlier. Because that’s what the landscape has looked like in the Western Conference through the opening quarter.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 104.5
Current points pace: 105.4
What has gone right? They’re finding defensive continuity without Alex Pietrangelo. Scoring goals is important, but there was a strong belief the Golden Knights were going to score many of them anyway — and they have this season. Losing their No. 1 defenseman in Pietrangelo as he recovers from a bilateral femur reconstruction created questions about how they would fare without him.
They’ve used the first quarter to establish themselves as one of the more consistent defensive structures in the NHL. The Golden Knights have been a top-three team this season in terms of allowing the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 and shots per 60.
What has gone wrong? Here’s where it gets bizarre. The Golden Knights are limiting high-danger chances and shots in ways that should benefit their goalies. And yet there’s still something of a disconnect with how their goalies have performed this season.
The Golden Knights are around league average in team save percentage in 5-on-5 play but rank in the bottom third of the NHL when it comes to team save percentage in all situations, at .893. It’s part of what played into the decision to sign Carter Hart, who is currently playing for their AHL affiliate as he’ll be eligible for reinstatement on Dec. 1 as part of the Hockey Canada trial in which five players were acquitted for sexual assault.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 84.5
Current points pace: 93.2
What has gone right? Columbus can always count on Zach Werenski to deliver, and the Blue Jackets’ best player has been exactly that to start the season. Werenski is tied for the second-most points on the team — having notched his 400th career point earlier this month — and plays nearly 27 minutes per game.
Up front, it’s Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov and Adam Fantilli showcasing how promising Columbus’ present and future are on offense, as those young skaters continue to grow and mature into their individual games. The Blue Jackets have had notable scoring success at 5-on-5 as well thanks to one of the league’s best attacks on the rush.
The goaltending — specifically from Jet Greaves — has been better than expected to keep Columbus right in the Eastern Conference wild-card mix.
What has gone wrong? The Blue Jackets haven’t had much luck on special teams, having a middling power play and one of the league’s worst penalty kills. Though the man advantage has shown signs of life recently it has been a thorn in Columbus’ side not being able to capitalize on more of those chances — or keep their opponents’ chances from ending up in the net.
The Blue Jackets have star performers, but there is a significant drop-off in contributors throughout the lineup. Losing captain Boone Jenner to injury hurts Columbus there, and the Blue Jackets might struggle in the wake of his absence trying to sort out their offensive attack.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 98.5
Current points pace: 96.9
What has gone right? It has been the defensive consistency for the Kings. Playoff teams are going to be judged on what allowed them to win and/or be eliminated. Giving up 20 goals over the final four games of their first-round series last season against the Oilers — after having a 2-0 series lead — created quite a few questions about the Kings. Among the items that came into question was their defensive structure.
They’ll probably need to wait until the playoffs to definitively answer any of the questions raised after their four straight first-round exits. But the way they’ve started the season — allowing the fifth-fewest goals per game — has at least presented the notion that they’re adept at playing close games, with goal prevention at the heart of that plan.
What has gone wrong? Scoring goals has been a problem for the Kings. They’re in the bottom six in goals per game and on the power play.
But the detail that makes the Kings’ struggles equally fascinating and perplexing would be how their underlying numbers skew. On one hand, they’re ranked sixth in high-danger scoring chances per 60, and 12th in shots. But, they rank just below league average in scoring chances per 60. It’s a formula that has further reinforced why their defensive consistency matters, as they’re averaging 2.68 goals while giving up 2.68 goals entering Monday.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 94.5
Current points pace: 99.8
What has gone right? Being able to consistently field the same roster. Injuries took the Wild from having one of the best starts of any team last season to one that had to fight just to grab a wild-card spot.
To be clear, this season has had its challenges. But it comes with the context that they’ve had eight players appear in every game, and 13 of their skaters have played in 20 or more of their first 23 games. The impact of that has been reflected in the Wild’s defensive core: Three of the top four defensemen in terms of average ice time have played in every game, and Jonas Brodin has sat out only one.
What has gone wrong? They need to score more goals. Anyone who follows the Wild knows how this all works; they struggle to consistently score goals but can often rely or in some cases rely too much on their defensive structure and goaltending to win games.
This season has seen its share of disconnects with that approach. Minnesota’s underlying numbers suggest it should be scoring more goals. The Wild are in the top half of the NHL in scoring chances per 60 and shots per 60. They are also 18th in high-danger chances, only to be in the bottom 10 of goals per game. To to get in a more secure playoff position — they’ve been jockeying between third place in the Central or a wild-card spot — they’ll need to ramp up the scoring.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 95.5
Current points pace: 101.5
What has gone right? Ottawa got off to a shaky start before recommitting to head coach Travis Green’s defensive structure. That shift has been a game-changer, as the Senators staked their claim among the Atlantic’s top three clubs. The Senators are giving up the third fewest shots against per game this season, and their goals against average has trended downward since adapting that new mindset in late October.
Ottawa hasn’t had trouble scoring with Drake Batherson — leading the Sens with 19 points in 17 games — Tim Stutzle, and Shane Pinto all contributing regularly. Jake Sanderson continues to be a revelation at both ends for Ottawa, and that has been especially impactful with captain Brady Tkachuk still sidelined after an early-season injury.
What has gone wrong? The Senators have too often been fighting themselves because of subpar goaltending from Linus Ullmark. The Vezina Trophy winner hasn’t been in top shape this season, giving up three or more goals in 10 of his first 16 starts, while forcing Ottawa to try to outscore every mistake. Backup Leevi Merilainen has done his best to step in when called upon, but Ullmark has to maintain control of the crease with more consistency from here for Ottawa to keep up in the crowded Atlantic race.
And to that end, recent injuries to top defenseman Thomas Chabot and forward Ridly Greig could certainly damage Ottawa’s depth as they wait for Tkachuk to return.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 101.5
Current points pace: 101.5
What has gone right? The Lightning are, well … the Lightning. Regardless of what a season throws at them, this team adjusts to its circumstances and remains dangerous.
Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov pack a one-two punch up front to lead the offense, and Guentzel’s performance has been particularly strong this season while the Lightning’s depth has been under the microscope. The Lightning also have Anthony Cirelli as an archetypal 200-foot center, and Victor Hedman can still go toe-to-toe to be among the league’s best defenders. The Lightning are a solid defensive group overall and dominate on the penalty kill.
Jon Cooper makes the most of his lineup every night, and that’s one of Tampa Bay’s true superpowers.
What has gone wrong? The Lightning are going through it with injuries already — and now Hedman is out for a couple of weeks. Only six skaters have appeared in all Tampa Bay’s games this season, forcing the Lightning to rely on call-ups to fill in the gaps. It has worked well enough to keep the team in the playoff picture, but without the same swagger the Lightning are used to wielding.
Speaking of missing swagger, what happened to Brayden Point‘s? The usually dynamic top-line skater is a shadow of his previous seasons’ performances, with only three goals and 11 points in his first 20 games. The Lightning are accustomed to getting quite a bit more out of him.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 97.5
Current points pace: 93.7
What has gone right? The Jets can score goals, sometimes in bulk. They can get those goals from different line combinations and defense pairings in ways that many teams throughout the league can’t replicate. The manner in which they’ve received offensive contributions from different players complements how Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey and Mark Scheifele are each averaging more than a point per game.
It’s part of the reason behind why they are in the top 12 of goals per game while also boasting a top 10 power play. Knowing they can generate goals at a high rate could prove useful upon the news that three-time Vezina recipient Connor Hellebuyck could sit out up to six weeks.
What has gone wrong? Missing Hellebuyck for an extended period could present challenges and potentially amplify what has been an area of concern for the Jets when it comes to their defensive structure. There are only three teams that have given up more scoring chances per 60. They’ve also given up the ninth-most high-danger chances per 60 in addition to being in the top 10 of allowing the most shots per 60.
It’s what makes the work done by Eric Comrie and Hellebuyck even more vital through the first quarter. The Jets had a top-five team save percentage in all situations, and the eighth-best team save percentage in 5-on-5 play before Hellebuyck’s injury. Now they’ll need Comrie — and World Junior Championships hero Thomas Milic — to provide continuity in Hellebuyck’s absence.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 106.5
Current points pace: 89.8
What has gone right? Florida has proved depth and resiliency can be a weapon. Or, at least a helpful tool. The Panthers are adaptive in the face of injury woes, and that next-man-up mentality could see them through as it has in the past.
Florida is getting some of Brad Marchand‘s best hockey in years as the team’s goals and points leader, complementing strong starts from Sam Reinhart and Anton Lundell. The Panthers can seemingly weather a storm better than most thanks to, well, you know — being back-to-back Stanley Cup champions and all, and the confidence that comes with it.
What has gone wrong? Florida has been cratered by injuries. Captain Aleksander Barkov tore his ACL and MCL during a preseason practice and is out for the season. Eetu Luostarinen was sidelined after sustaining burns in a barbecuing accident. Cole Schwindt needed surgery after breaking his arm colliding with Panthers’ goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. And all of those follow Matthew Tkachuk being out after offseason surgery.
Florida is truly putting “bend-don’t-break” to the test, and it’s hard to even assess what the Panthers can be given how long the injured list is — and, more specifically, the caliber of players who are on it.
Grade: B-
Preseason over/under: 92.5
Current points pace: 93.2
What has gone right? There has been enough of a sample size that proves the Mammoth could have something good with their current roster. A seven-game winning streak was part of a sequence that saw them open the regular season winning eight of their first 10 games.
One reason why they were in the top five in giving up the fewest goals per game in that span is because they were also a top-five team when it came to giving up the fewest shots per game. They were also in the top five of most shots per game, which translated into them being in the top five of goals scored per game.
What has gone wrong? There also has been enough of a sample size that proves the Mammoth still need more. Consider how they’ve performed since that seven-game winning streak ended Oct. 28. They’ve had a pair of three-game losing streaks, with their second such streak reaching four. It’s part of a larger sequence that has seen them lose nine of their 12 most recent games.
In that span, they’re in the bottom four in terms of goals scored per game and are in the bottom 10 in terms of giving up the most goals per game.
Grade: B-
C grades
Preseason over/under: 96.5
Current points pace: 89.5
What has gone right? Washington has Alex Ovechkin still playing premier hockey into his 40s. That simply can’t be taken for granted. The Capitals’ captain tied for the team lead with 20 points in his first 20 games, and also added another hat trick earlier this month.
He’s not the only veteran contributing for Washington — Tom Wilson, John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun have all been difference-makers in D.C.
Goaltender Logan Thompson also has been outstanding, ranking among the league’s top starters in save percentage and goals-against average.
What has gone wrong? The Capitals aren’t the same team that finished atop the Eastern Conference standings last season. Coach Spencer Carbery’s aim to build Washington into a faster club that can keep pace with the league’s speedier lineups isn’t happening. There’s a lack of consistency in the scoring attack, and that was made worse when Pierre-Luc Dubois hit injured reserve this month. And now Nic Dowd is also out.
It’s not just at even strength where Washington hasn’t produced — the Capitals’ power play is well below average, and their penalty kill is bottom five in the league. There’s just something off about how the Capitals show up on a game-to-game basis. Though their top players appear mostly dialed in, the supporting cast isn’t doing its part on a regular basis.
Grade: C+
Preseason over/under: 83.5
Current points pace: 82
What has gone right? Buffalo found a potential hidden gem in goaltender Colten Ellis. The Sabres claimed Ellis off waivers from St. Louis in October, and he has stepped in recently to help stabilize Buffalo in net. Ellis was 3-1-0 in his first four games, with a .914 save percentage, earning a longer look in the starter’s role and providing a bright spot amid an otherwise difficult season.
Josh Doan is another new face that has fit in well, playing over 15 minutes per game and notching 12 points in his first 20 games.
The Sabres have shown they can score in bunches — that 9-3 victory over Chicago this month was proof — and they’ve produced the league’s best penalty kill (89.8%). And, Buffalo’s actually starting to heat up; after losing five straight, the Sabres have rebounded to win four of their past five.
What has gone wrong? The Sabres aren’t yet close to snapping that historically long playoff drought. Buffalo sank to the bottom of the Atlantic Division early, and are only now making slow progress out of it. The Sabres are leaky defensively, their offense is top-heavy and inconsistent, plus their power play is sputtering too often.
Injuries have invariably played a role in Buffalo’s struggles — only a handful of skaters have appeared in every game this season — and the Sabres simply haven’t had the depth to make up for their frequently full infirmary. It’s hard not to question if coach Lindy Ruff’s messaging is already falling on deaf ears if Buffalo can’t turn things around. And what happens then?
Grade: C
Preseason over/under: 103.5
Current points pace: 85.4
What has gone right? Being a point out of the final wild-card place at this point. Much of that has been due to Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid both averaging more than a point per game while others such as Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jack Roslovic have also made offensive contributions for the Oilers.
The two-time defending Western Conference champions have done this before. They’ve had slow starts — some even slower than what they’ve encountered this season — and have still reached the Stanley Cup Final.
What has gone wrong? The thing about slow starts is that it leads to the same questions being asked every season.
That’s what could make Nov. 19 a potentially crucial date for the Oilers after giving up seven goals in a loss to the Capitals. It was the 13th time in 22 games that the Oilers gave up more than four goals. Watching the Oilers be exposed led to Sportsnet’s broadcast pointing out that they gave up the most goals in the NHL, the most goals in 5-on-5 play and had the lowest team save percentage.
Grade: C-
Preseason over/under: 95.5
Current points pace: 78.4
What has gone right? New York is a superior defensive team under first-year coach Mike Sullivan, and that has kept them afloat. The Rangers are one of the NHL’s stingiest teams — averaging 2.65 goals-against per game — and that’s credit to many of New York’s skaters playing some of the best defense of their careers.
And of course the offseason addition of Vladislav Gavrikov changed the narrative there too; the big-bodied defender has been a strong partner to Adam Fox anchoring the Rangers’ blue line.
Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick have been a terrific goaltending tandem for the Blueshirts as well, a good reflection of the Rangers’ defensive commitment.
What has gone wrong? The Rangers can’t score enough goals, which might be an understatement. New York scored one goal in its first four games, and still hasn’t lit the league on fire. The Rangers’ offense ranks 30th overall (2.48 goals per game) for good reason: their star scorers being anything but. J.T. Miller had 12 points in 22 games — and is now out because of an upper-body injury. Mika Zibanejad managed only 15 points through 23 games. Not even Artemi Panarin is averaging a point-per-game pace.
It’s a good thing New York has shut down opponents defensively because Sullivan has yet to find an answer for the sputtering offense. Fittingly, it’s made New York a team without a clear identity.
Grade: C-
Preseason over/under: 99.5
Current points pace: 78.3
What has gone right? Toronto could not have anticipated John Tavares turning back the clock. That’s the case though, and a good thing too because Tavares — along with William Nylander — has been powering the Leafs’ success up front. Tavares’ 12 goals in his first 21 games was top 10 in the NHL, and Nylander compiled 27 points in his first 19 games. Nick Robertson is also a surprise standout with a regular top-six role.
Toronto has managed to rank top five in goals scored and second in 5-on-5 goals. The Leafs recently welcomed Joseph Woll back from dealing with a personal issue to start the season, and the netminder has barely missed a beat stepping in as Toronto’s reigning No. 1 goalie.
What has gone wrong? Mitch Marner is no longer on the roster, and unsurprisingly, they just don’t look the same.
Granted, Toronto’s difficulties stem from much more than just Marner’s absence. Toronto thrived in coach Craig Berube’s defense-first system last season, but are one of the league’s worst teams against the rush and are top three in goals against per game this season. Toronto has no real identity; frankly, it has been difficult to establish one. The Leafs have been decimated by injuries everywhere, from goaltender Anthony Stolarz (who struggled in his early starts), to top forwards Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies, to depth centers Nicolas Roy and Scott Laughton and right through the blue line, with Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo both sitting out time.
That has left Berube to try to patch together a lineup too often lacking chemistry — or confidence. Tavares and Nylander have been instrumental in keeping the Leafs afloat, but Toronto’s recent stretch going 1-5-2 has left them at a loss for answers, and at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.
Grade: C-
D grades
Preseason over/under: 83.5
Current points pace: 64.9
What has gone right? Being in contention for the worst record in the NHL usually comes with the association of a porous defensive structure. Unless it’s the Flames, apparently.
Their defensive structure would be the hallmark of a team that’s trying to make a push for a playoff spot. They’re in the top four in terms of allowing the fewest scoring chances per 60 and high-danger scoring chances per 60. The Flames are also 13th in shots allowed per 60.
What has gone wrong? Their struggles in the offensive zone have played a significant part in why the Flames have alternated between having either the worst record in the NHL or one of the worst marks in the league. They were averaging 2.10 goals per game throughout the early portion of November.
But their recent three-game winning streak has seen them average 4.66 goals in those victories, which has raised their average to 2.38 goals per game. Don’t get too excited; that’s now the second-lowest average goals per game in the NHL. It’s a figure that also makes them one of the more offense-challenged teams in NHL history. The Flames’ current goals per game average would be in the bottom 200 teams all time in terms of single-season goals per game.
Grade: D
Preseason over/under: 90.5
Current points pace: 71.3
What has gone right? Winning four of their first six games. That window provided a glimpse into how a healthy version of the Canucks could function. A fully healthy Thatcher Demko looked like the version of himself that was a Vezina Trophy finalist in 2023-24. Filip Chytil scored three goals during that stretch and was starting to answer questions about whether he could find consistency as a top-six center.
There was also the continued emergence of Kiefer Sherwood — who went from having 19 goals in his first season with the Canucks to scoring four times in those six games as part of a month in which he finished with nine goals.
What has gone wrong? Nearly everything since Oct. 21. That’s when the Canucks went on the first of what has been three, three-game losing streaks, along with a rash of injuries that has greatly altered their lineup.
They have needed 29 skaters and three goaltenders just to get through their first 23 games. They’re a bottom-10 team in terms of shots per 60, scoring chances per 60 and high-danger chances per 60, and have faced even greater struggles defensively. The Canucks are either the worst or second-worst team in the NHL when it comes to allowing the most shots per 60, scoring chances per 60 and high-danger chances per 60.
Grade: D
Preseason over/under: 92.5
Current points pace: 74.5
What has gone right? A positive that can quickly be turned into a negative appears to be the most succinct way to describe the Blues in 2025-26.
They’re among the best teams in the NHL at limiting scoring chances. They are a top-10 team when it comes to giving up the fewest scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances per 60. OK, so how is having what appears to be a functional defensive structure a bad thing? It’s because the Blues are giving up the third-most goals per game at 3.64 goals per game.
What has gone wrong? They’ve had one of the more disappointing starts in the NHL. They were a playoff team that used the offseason to add a 25-goal scorer in Pius Suter to a group that had seven returning players who reached double figures in goals.
But they’ve gone through the first quarter with the third-fewest points in the NHL. They’re averaging the fifth-fewest goals per game, while residing in the bottom 10 of shots per game. Their goaltending has disrupted their defensive structure by having the fourth-lowest team save percentage in all situations, and the fifth worst in 5-on-5 play. The Blues came into Monday five points adrift of the final wild-card spot, with the idea that what happens in the near future could determine if they’re a playoff team or one destined for the lottery.
Grade: D-
F grade
Preseason over/under: 86.5
Current points pace: 62.5
What has gone right? Well, they have an above league average penalty kill. So, there’s that at least.
Filip Forsberg is continuing to build upon his legacy as the best forward in the franchise’s history. He’s projected to reach the 30-goal mark for the fourth time in the past five seasons, and for the fifth time in his career. Plus, Matthew Wood is presenting a strong case to make the All-Rookie Team and potentially be a Calder Trophy finalist. All of that, along with the fact that the Tennessee-Vanderbilt game Saturday could have College Football Playoff implications for both teams.
What has gone wrong? They were the last team to reach the 50-goal mark this season, and have the lowest goals-per-game average in the NHL at 2.29. This has a chance to be one of the more offense-challenged seasons in league history should it continue. They entered Monday in the bottom 125 in league history when it comes to the lowest single-season averages in goals per game.
Those frustrations have extended to other areas, with the Preds giving up the sixth-most goals per game. They have a bottom-seven power play. They’ve been without their best defenseman and arguably best player in Roman Josi for most of the season. And Steven Stamkos, who has scored more than 580 career goals, is on pace to finish with fewer than 20 for the first time in his career in a non-injury season.
Grade: F
Surprise — there were no surprises.
After a ho-hum Week 13 that featured only two games between two ranked opponents, there wasn’t any movement in this week’s top 12 projection, but there are two questions looming over the committee as it debates its fourth of six rankings to be revealed on Tuesday night (7 p.m. ET/ESPN):
Here’s a prediction of what the group might do in the latest ranking on Tuesday night:
Projecting the top 12
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)
Why they could be here: A dominant win against a now sub.-500 Rutgers team isn’t going to change the way the committee views Ohio State — as the most complete team in the country. Ohio State entered Saturday leading the country in total efficiency and ranked in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Wins against No. 17 Texas and No. 21 Illinois (which lost to Wisconsin on Saturday) are its only ones against CFP top 25 opponents, but a road win against Washington is also respected in the room. The committee has specifically noted the elite play of receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — and even with both sidelined with injuries on Saturday, Ohio State was able to dismantle the Rutgers defense.
Why they could be lower: Nothing happened on Saturday that would prompt the committee to rethink the Buckeyes’ place at the top, but Ohio State had the worst schedule strength (No. 48) of the top three teams entering Saturday.
Need to know: Although Ohio State and Indiana remain the most likely matchup in the Big Ten championship game — each controls its own destiny — neither clinched a spot in Week 13. Ohio State can clinch a spot with a win against Michigan OR losses by both Indiana and Oregon. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are joined by Oregon and Michigan with chances to reach the Big Ten title game, but the latter two teams both need help to clinch.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)
Why they could be here: With the Hoosiers on a bye — and both Ohio State and Texas A&M playing unranked, inferior opponents — it’s unlikely there’s any movement at the top again. Indiana has earned the committee’s respect with its double-digit win at Oregon and its top-five rankings for both offensive and defensive efficiency. The group has taken note of Indiana’s consistent dominance, with its most glaring struggles coming on the road at Iowa and Penn State, both notoriously difficult places to win. Indiana entered Week 13 ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric.
Why they could be higher: Given how the committee has voted and deliberated through three rankings, Indiana likely needs Ohio State to lose to Michigan — or IU needs to beat the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game — to earn the top spot.
Need to know: Indiana can clinch a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a win next week or an Ohio State loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. The Hoosiers had a bye to prepare for their regular-season finale against their in-state rivals.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (11-0)
Why they could be here: It’s not because they manhandled Samford, an overmatched 1-11 FCS team. It’s mostly because the Aggies are clinging to a 41-40 win at No. 9 Notre Dame, the highlight of their undefeated résumé. The Nov. 8 win at Mizzou, which came when Tigers starting quarterback Beau Pribula was sidelined with an injury, is a borderline top-25 win that was devalued somewhat on Saturday by Mizzou’s loss to Oklahoma. Texas A&M still leads the nation in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which gives the average top 25 team just a 2.2% chance of achieving the same undefeated record against the same opponents.
Why they could be lower: It’s unlikely anything will change in the third ranking, but if Texas A&M loses to Texas — and doesn’t win the SEC — it will be interesting to see where the Aggies fall on Selection Day. They didn’t face Alabama or Georgia during the regular season, playing just the 12th-most difficult schedule in the SEC, according to ESPN Analytics — ahead of only Vandy, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri. The Aggies rank just outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Need to know: The Aggies will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Texas OR if both Alabama and Ole Miss lose.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns will have home-field advantage on Friday night after Thanksgiving.
4. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are here because of their 35-10 drubbing of Texas on Nov. 15 — not because they overpowered Charlotte 35-3 on Saturday. Georgia has one loss and Alabama has two, so the Bulldogs’ head-to-head loss to the Tide on Sept. 27 was overcome in the third ranking. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas give Georgia one of the best résumés in the country. Georgia entered Saturday ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and No. 12 in strength of schedule — ahead of Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see the committee move Georgia this week — especially since everyone played weaker opponents and Texas Tech was on a bye — but if Texas A&M loses to Texas this Friday, it will open the door for debate between the Bulldogs and Aggies. The committee would compare Texas as a common opponent, and Georgia beat the Longhorns soundly. Georgia also has more wins against ranked opponents (a win against Georgia Tech could add another) and a slightly tougher schedule. Some committee members might also think Georgia has a slightly better loss (Alabama) than A&M (Texas).
Need to know: According to ESPN Research, Georgia can clinch a spot in the SEC title game in Week 14 with an Alabama loss OR a Texas A&M loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets (9-2) pushed their in-state rival to eight overtimes last year.
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders had a bye week and are “highly regarded by this committee,” chair Hunter Yurachek said following the third ranking. Dominant wins at Utah and against BYU have elevated Texas Tech in the ranking, and the committee has also been impressed with the Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front. Texas Tech’s lone loss was Oct. 18 at Arizona State, which popped into the latest ranking at No. 25, helping to ease some of that stumble.
Why they could be lower: With both Texas Tech and Ole Miss off on Saturday, it’s unlikely their positions will change in the fourth ranking.
Need to know: Texas Tech is within arm’s reach of a first-round bye, which makes it highly unlikely the Red Raiders would fall out of the playoff even if they finished as the Big 12 runner-up.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. It’s on the road at a notoriously difficult venue, but the Red Raiders have a 91.6% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)
Why they could be here: The committee has had Texas Tech ahead of Ole Miss in part because of a better résumé, though the Red Raiders have two top-25 wins (BYU and Utah), and Ole Miss also has two (Oklahoma and Tulane). The Rebels’ win against the Sooners looks better than Oregon’s win against USC, as the Sooners are a top-10 team and were able to hold off Missouri on Saturday to stay that way.
Why they could be lower: The committee members could consider bumping Oregon ahead of Ole Miss, as they’ve been waiting for a performance like Saturday’s against another CFP contender and the Ducks delivered against USC. Oregon and Ole Miss are extremely close in both strength of record and strength of schedule, and they both lost to a top-four team. Ole Miss also has a win against Tulane, which is now the leader for a Group of 5 playoff spot, and the win against the Sooners was on the road, whereas Oregon beat USC at home. With everything else so comparable, those are some small details that might continue to lean in the Rebels’ favor — if maybe for only another week.
Need to know: The Rebels will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game if they win the Egg Bowl AND both Texas A&M and Alabama lose.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Rebels don’t have much if any margin for error against their in-state rivals. A second loss would put Ole Miss into a debate it might not win, given its schedule strength ranks No. 15 in the SEC.
7. Oregon Ducks (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Ducks added a much-needed statement win to their résumé on Saturday against USC, solidifying their spot as the Big Ten’s third playoff team. Assuming three-loss USC is still ranked on Tuesday night, though, Saturday’s victory is the Ducks’ only win against a CFP top 25 team. Big Ten opponents Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota are all above .500, which the committee values, but Ole Miss has a slightly better résumé with its wins against Oklahoma and Tulane.
Why they could be higher: The Ducks have won five straight since their 30-20 home loss against Indiana on Oct. 11, but USC was the kind of strong performance against a top-15 team the committee has been waiting for. And they did it without several key injured players on both sides of the ball.
Need to know: With USC dropping out of the playoff picture, the biggest threat to Oregon is gone, but Michigan can still disrupt the picture in the final week. According to ESPN Research, if Michigan beats rival Ohio State AND Indiana OR Oregon loses, the Wolverines will clinch a spot in the conference championship game. Which team they face depends on how those other results unfold, but they could play any of those three — Indiana, Oregon or Ohio State.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. This isn’t an easy road trip, as the bowl-bound Huskies have had a respectable season in the second year under coach Jedd Fisch.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2)
Why they could be here: A win against what was the committee’s No. 22 team in Missouri should further solidify Oklahoma’s foothold in the No. 8 spot because the defense was dominant on a day the offense did just enough. That was Oklahoma’s third straight win against a CFP top 25 opponent, including back-to-back road wins against Tennessee and Alabama. The Sooners also earned a ranked win on Sept. 6 against Michigan, which continues to be valuable after the Wolverines kept their playoff hopes alive on Saturday with a win against Maryland.
Why they could be lower: It’s clear the committee likes Notre Dame, and the Irish hammered Syracuse 70-7. Oklahoma’s defense is one of the best in the country, but the Sooners’ offense is No. 43 in efficiency — well below No. 6 Notre Dame. It would be difficult to justify flipping the Irish above the Sooners, though, given that Syracuse is now 3-8 and OU beat a ranked SEC team on top of having a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the debate between Oklahoma and Notre Dame would be settled on the field — in Norman, where the Sooners would have home-field advantage in the first round. The No. 8 spot is the last team in the ranking to host a first-round game.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. LSU. The Sooners need to avoid what would be a devastating upset to the four-loss Tigers.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2)
Why they could be here: The Irish have won nine straight since an 0-2 start, and the committee has considered Notre Dame’s narrow losses to Texas A&M and Miami important factors in its deliberations. One reason Notre Dame was ranked ahead of two-loss Alabama in the third ranking was because the Irish lost by a combined four points to two ranked opponents. Alabama’s season-opening loss to Florida State and its continued inability to run the ball have held it back. The Irish racked up some style points in Saturday’s drubbing of Syracuse, but the committee has already rewarded Notre Dame for its running game and staunch defense. On Saturday, the Irish scored three touchdowns (two on defense and one on special teams) before the offense even took the field. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt.
Why they could be higher: If the committee gives Notre Dame another boost, it would be because the Irish have been more consistently dominant on offense than the Sooners. Oklahoma, though, has played tougher competition than Notre Dame over the past few weeks and has the edge in overall schedule strength and strength of record.
Need to know: Although Notre Dame appears safe — and it would certainly be a shock to see it fall out of the playoff field — there is still a nightmare scenario for the Irish. If Alabama wins the SEC and jumps ahead of Notre Dame, pushing the Irish to the No. 10 spot, they could be in trouble if the Big 12 has two playoff teams. If BYU wins the Big 12, and Texas Tech joins it in the top nine as the Big 12 runner-up — then a team currently in the top 10 has to be excluded. The No. 11 team will get bumped out for the ACC champ and the No. 12 team will get knocked out for the Group of 5 champion.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Stanford. The Irish have a 95% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
10. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2)
Why they could be here: The committee made it clear last week that Alabama’s struggles on the ground have been an issue all season. It was one factor that separated No. 9 Notre Dame from No. 10 Alabama in last Tuesday’s ranking. Alabama’s 259 rushing yards in a lopsided 56-0 win against a 3-9 FCS team in Eastern Illinois aren’t going to sway anyone in the room enough to move the Tide up. Alabama still has one of the best résumés in the country, including a win against No. 4 Georgia during a streak of four straight CFP top 25 wins during the middle of the season. The loss to Oklahoma will keep Alabama behind the Sooners as long as the committee deems them comparable.
Why they could be higher: If Alabama’s résumé wasn’t enough to keep the Tide ahead of Notre Dame last week, it’s unlikely to change this week. Alabama entered Saturday No. 8 in strength of record and No. 2 in strength of schedule, both ahead of Notre Dame.
Need to know: With Tennessee’s win on Saturday, Alabama can now clinch a spot in the SEC title game with a win against Auburn.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Iron Bowl is a must-win for the Tide.
11. BYU Cougars (10-1)
Why they could be here: With the win at Cincinnati, BYU passed its toughest remaining test of the regular season and earned another road win against a team that was ranked by the committee, albeit for a fleeting moment. BYU’s Oct. 18 win against Utah will continue to resonate in the room after Utah found a way to beat a pesky K-State team. The head-to-head win against the Utes will also keep BYU ahead of them. BYU’s only loss was on the road against No. 5 Texas Tech, but it was a poor performance that raised some eyebrows in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify moving BYU given the head-to-head against Utah and one fewer loss. And Alabama’s résumé will make it very difficult for the Cougars to move up.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, BYU would be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but is guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. UCF. The 5-6 Knights will be playing for bowl eligibility.
12. Utah Utes (9-2)
Why they could be here: After Utah found a way to escape K-State on Saturday, its only losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — Texas Tech and BYU — and the committee considers who a team lost to as part of its deliberations. The Utes’ best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to BYU.
Why they could be lower: The committee could reward Miami’s convincing road win at Virginia Tech and bump the Canes up a notch because they played far better defense — albeit against a 3-8 ACC team. Utah allowed 472 rushing yards and 11.2 yards per carry against Kansas State — on its home field. It was Miami’s third straight win by at least 17 points, showing some of the consistency committee members had been looking for. Miami’s season-opening win against Notre Dame is also better than any win Utah has earned to date.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Utah would be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which this week we project will be Tulane.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Kansas. At 5-6, the Jayhawks will be playing for bowl eligibility.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Six teams are still eligible to reach the ACC conference championship game — Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Another four are still in contention to win the Big 12 (Arizona State, BYU, Texas Tech and Utah).
And don’t forget that Michigan can still make it to the Big Ten title game.
The bubble is bursting with lingering hope heading into the final week of the regular season. With only Rivalry Week and the conference championship games remaining, the picture can still change drastically as teams punctuate their résumés — or tumble out entirely.
Little if any change, though, is expected tonight in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings (7 p.m. ET/ESPN). Eleven of the committee’s top 12 teams won on Saturday — and 10 of those victories came by double digits. While the latest top 12 projection remained unchanged, the teams on the bubble have shifted.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s projection. Check back following the selection show for an updated version that will account for the committee’s latest top 25.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or it can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate comes if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide has played the ninth-most-difficult schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and its résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it could face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee is the first step, but they would also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s not inconceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of it matters, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its spot in the top 10. It could even have a case this week to jump Ole Miss. Oregon now has an 18% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it needs to beat Washington AND it needs Michigan to beat Ohio State.
First team out: Michigan. The Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State AND a loss by either Indiana OR Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head loss to USC because the Trojans have three losses and are likely to drop behind Michigan in the latest ranking. The loss to Oklahoma, though, would probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finished with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, would have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech can do that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona AND a BYU loss OR a win AND losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas AND both BYU and Arizona State win AND Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 13% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. It’s imperative they win at Pitt on Saturday and would help if the committee ranked the Panthers tonight. The Canes have a compelling case this week to unseat Utah for the No. 12 spot after beating Virginia Tech for their third straight win by at least 17 points. That was Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been waiting for. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, but until the Canes creep closer to the Irish in the ranking and join them in the same pool of teams the group votes on, they will likely remain behind the Irish.
First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: if Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. It will be interesting to see if the committee ranks three-loss SMU tonight. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter of which are both above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get in the ACC championship game with a win AND either a loss by SMU OR UVA. Duke can get in with a win and losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and/or Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chance to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave will likely maintain its spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following its 37-13 win at Temple, its largest margin of victory this season.
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference championship game and there are multiple tiebreaker scenarios still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — if Navy is not ranked ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking on Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win AND a loss by either Tulane OR North Texas.
Bracket
Based on this week’s projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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