For weeks – months even – we’ve been watching a beauty parade on the Conservative benches preparing for life after Rishi Sunak as various MPs hook up with various groupings of Conservative backbenchers hoping to garner support for the moment when the ball comes out of the scrum.
On the right, we have seen the ‘five families‘ of right-wing groupings, led by leadership hopefuls Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, trying to garner grassroots support by bouncing the prime minister (while Godfather fans will no doubt enjoy the reference to the five leading mafia dynasties of New York City, in the end there was little bloodletting and the prime minister won the day).
Then we have the Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch and Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt on manoeuvres – with briefings from ‘friends’ of the former distancing the cabinet minister from the prime minister’s Rwanda approach, while the latter is hitting the grassroots circuit hard while wooing those new candidates that might end up in the Conservative class of 2024.
In this pre-launch teaser episode of Electoral Dysfunction, Ruth, Jess and I also had a chat about another contender flying below the radar but definitely positioning – Priti Patel. A former darling of the right, she was overtaken amid the demise of Boris Johnson by Ms Braverman, Ms Badenoch and Liz Truss. But now, the former home secretary and key Johnson ally is back, building her base almost entirely hidden from view.
My ears were first pricked in December when I was talking to a senior figure in the ‘One Nation’ wing of the party – that is home to Tory MPs who are more socially liberal and politically positioned on the centre-right.
As this figure was bemoaning the horrors, as they saw it, of a Braverman leadership bid after the election, they told me that Priti Patel was at least someone on that wing of the party they could do business with. The former cabinet minister acknowledged that the right is likely to take the leadership crown after the election, given the leanings of the Conservative party members who get to choose, and that Patel looks, for now, the pick of an unpalatable bunch for Tory centrists.
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And then earlier this month, up Priti Patel popped at the launch of a new grouping – the Popular Conservatives – spearheaded (I know, the irony isn’t missed on me) by Liz Truss.
She is a politician building alliances over all sorts of groupings and even cross-party: when I raised Priti Patel as my dark horse in the likely up-and-coming leadership race, it certainly chimed with Ruth and Jess, with the latter telling us how surprised she’d been when former home secretary Amber Rudd, very much a One Nation Conservative, told her over dinner how she worked well with Priti: “I remember being like, how is this?”
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Jess also told me how Patel was with her after MP Sir David Amess was murdered in his constituency: “Those of us who are the highest security risk, of which I am one of ten, they really ramped up our security on these occasions, as they always do in these moments.
“And Priti Patel [who at the time was home secretary] was really good friends with David.
“I mean she was his [constituency] neighbour. And every Sunday night, for four weeks, at about 9pm at night, she would ring me and ask if I was all right. You don’t forget that sort of thing.”
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It’s particularly pertinent this week as concerns over MPs’ safety come to the fore over the divisive vote around a ceasefire in Gaza. In the week parliament finally backed an immediate ceasefire – a position which has taken Labour months to move to – this significant moment was drowned out by the spectacle of wrangling and rows over parliamentary procedure and partisan point-scoring from which no one emerged well.
The Speaker has had a particularly torrid 24 hours as dozens of MPs called for him to go after Sir Lindsay Hoyle broke decades of parliamentary precedent to allow all three main parties to put their position on a ceasefire to a vote.
The effect was to let Labour off the hook by avoiding a massive rebellion because it meant Starmer’s MPs could vote for the Labour ceasefire amendment instead of having to defy the whip and support the SNP ceasefire motion. But the Speaker was clear his motive was all about MPs’ safety.
There are those in parliament – like Rishi Sunak – who believe strongly concerns over MPs’ safety shouldn’t ever influence business in the Commons, not least because it could set a dangerous precedent of MPs being intimidated in order to change what they debate and how they vote.
But there is also a lot of chatter on some of the female MPs’ WhatsApp groups about their experiences and concerns over threats, with some – particularly Labour women – having to deal with physical confrontations with protests over the Israel-Hamas conflict.
One Conservative MP told me this week she was “riddled with anxiety” ahead of this week’s vote over what to do. “I’m angry that we’re being put in this position,” she told me.
“We get cast as either child murderers or antisemitic and I’m neither. I believe a nation has a right to defend itself against terrorists but I’m also a pacifist.
“There is no nuance in [this] vote, which is totally irrelevant anyway, just a binary perception of whether you’re for or against a ceasefire.”
So for all of those MPs angry at Sir Lindsay, there are others who are quietly thankful that he takes their safety so seriously and tried to cushion the fallout of this divisive SNP opposition day.
For now, it looks like he’s staying in post. What I can also confidently say will be a mainstay of this year is MPs’ safety, as we head into what is almost certainly going to be a very nasty election campaign. Something for me, Jess, Ruth to chew over in coming episodes.
A woman casually walks into a convenience store and starts filling a bread crate with goods from one of the aisles.
A shop assistant tries to stop her, but she shrugs him off, undeterred. With the crate now full of items, she leaves without paying.
It is a scenario that is played out day in and day out across Britain, as retailers warn the surge in shoplifting is now “out of control”.
I’m sitting in the security office of a busy city centre shop and I’m watching as a schoolboy walks in and helps himself to a sandwich, stuffing it into his jacket.
Watching with me is shop worker Anton Mavroianu who positions himself by the main entrance waiting for the youngster to leave.
When the boy does leave, Anton demands the item back. Instead of being frozen with fear that he’s been caught, the boy laughs and walks off.
“All we can do is try to stop them,” Anton tells me. “But this is just another day for us.”
A few weeks earlier, when Anton tried to stop a shoplifter who had stolen from the store, the man pulled out a knife and tried to attack him.
This terrifying incident is an example of the very real threat posed to shop workers as they try to stem the tide of brazen thefts.
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Shoplifting offences recorded by police in England and Wales have risen to the highest level in 20 years.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) also reports that theft-related losses cost the retail sector millions each year, adding strain to an industry already grappling with post-pandemic recovery and economic uncertainty.
For small businesses, which lack the resources of larger chains, persistent theft can threaten their very survival.
Ricky Dougall owns a chain of convenience stores and says shoplifting cost his business around £100,000 last year.
“Shoplifting is a huge problem and it is what stops us from growing the business.
“People come in and help themselves like they own the place and when you call the police, most of the time, they don’t turn up.”
Mr Dougall says part of the problem is how this type of crime is classified.
Sentencing guidelines for thefts of under £200, so-called “low level shoplifting”, were relaxed in 2016. That is being blamed for the surge in cases.
An exclusive Sky News and Association of Convenience Stores survey shows that 80% of shopkeepers surveyed had an incident of retail crime in the past week.
The poll also found 94% of shopkeepers say that in their experience, shoplifting has got worse over the last year, with 83% not confident that the police will take action against the perpetrators of retail crime on their premises.
Paul Cheema from the Association of Convenience Stores says retailers are looking to Government to support them.
“I would say officials do not give a s*** about us retailers,” he tells me. “The losses are too big and I don’t think we can sustain that anymore.
“I would urge Keir Starmer to come and meet us and see up close the challenges that we are facing.”
Retailers have responded by investing heavily in security measures, from advanced surveillance systems to hiring more security staff.
But these investments come at a cost, often passed down to consumers through higher prices.
I get chatting to Matt Roberts, head of retail in the store I am in. He worries about shoplifting, but he worries about the staff more.
“I would imagine they dread coming to work because they’re always on tenterhooks wondering whether something is going to happen today, whether they are going to have to try and confront someone.
“It’s a horrible feeling. It’s out of control and we need help.”
The government has acknowledged the urgency of the issue. Home Secretary-led discussions with retail associations and law enforcement are underway to craft a comprehensive strategy.
In the King’s Speech, the government outlined details of a Crime and Policing Bill, which promised to “introduce stronger measures to tackle low level shoplifting”, as well as introducing a separate offence for assaulting a shop worker.
Children do not feel safe, a charity has warned, as a survey finds two-thirds of teens in England and Wales have a fear of violence.
The charity, which surveyed 10,000 children aged 13-17, found that 20% of teenagers have been victims of violence in the past 12 months.
“I think what shocked me most is how this is a problem that affects all of our children,” said Jon Yates, CEO of the Youth Endowment Fund.
“We found that two-thirds of all teenage children are afraid. And that fear is pretty real for a lot of them.”
He said it’s a fear so palpable that many teenage children are changing their patterns of behaviour, or have had it influence their daily decisions.
One third of teenage children – 33% – reported avoiding areas, whilst around 27% alter their travel routes or avoid public transport altogether to stay safe.
More worryingly, however, some say the fear of violence has led to mental health challenges, with 22% reporting difficulties sleeping, reduced appetite and concentrating in school.
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Weapon carrying is also a concern for the charity, especially among vulnerable groups.
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3:55
From September: Young gangs of Wolverhampton
In England and Wales, 5% of all 13-17 year olds reported carrying a weapon in the past year, but that figure jumps to 21% for those suspended from school and 36% for children who have been excluded from school.
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But Mr Yates said “shockingly” only 12% of children who repeatedly commit violence get any sort of support.
“That’s madness,” he said.
Jay*, 23, from Birmingham said depending on your environment, sometimes violence is hard to avoid.
“I’ve had friends be shot, I’ve got friends who have been stabbed, I had a friend die last month to be fair,” Jay told Sky News.
He said it is “damaging” because you never really get the opportunity to “heal”. He is now being supported by the charity Project Lifeline, but says before then it was difficult to find any hope.
“If you don’t have hope,” Jay added, “you can’t really get anywhere. It’s about finding that hope.”
Mark Rodney, CEO of Lifeline Project, mentors at-risk young children and said he has learned that “not only the perpetrator carries the knife, the victim sometimes carries the knife”.
“And not only the perpetrator does the killing,” he added. “The victim sometimes does the killing, because that’s where we’re at.”
He said far too many families ask themselves “is my child safe going to school or coming home from school?” and adds the government must “actually start addressing people’s concerns”.
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15:46
From September: Home Sec vows to halve knife crime
The report also found that in 93% of cases where teenage children repeatedly harm others, adults intervene with punishments such as school discipline or police involvement.
However, only 12% of these children are offered support aimed at addressing the root causes of violence and preventing further harm.
Mr Yates said: “They go to school, they do something violent. They get excluded.”
He added: “We need to be much better at saying, ‘we’re not going to lose that child. We’re going to keep providing support to them. We’re going to keep providing a mentor’.
“Instead, we let them fall through the cracks”.
A government spokesperson said: “Halving knife crime in a decade is a clear mission this government has set out.
“It is vital to protect vulnerable young people who are too often the victims or perpetrators of this crime.”