For weeks – months even – we’ve been watching a beauty parade on the Conservative benches preparing for life after Rishi Sunak as various MPs hook up with various groupings of Conservative backbenchers hoping to garner support for the moment when the ball comes out of the scrum.
On the right, we have seen the ‘five families‘ of right-wing groupings, led by leadership hopefuls Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, trying to garner grassroots support by bouncing the prime minister (while Godfather fans will no doubt enjoy the reference to the five leading mafia dynasties of New York City, in the end there was little bloodletting and the prime minister won the day).
Then we have the Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch and Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt on manoeuvres – with briefings from ‘friends’ of the former distancing the cabinet minister from the prime minister’s Rwanda approach, while the latter is hitting the grassroots circuit hard while wooing those new candidates that might end up in the Conservative class of 2024.
In this pre-launch teaser episode of Electoral Dysfunction, Ruth, Jess and I also had a chat about another contender flying below the radar but definitely positioning – Priti Patel. A former darling of the right, she was overtaken amid the demise of Boris Johnson by Ms Braverman, Ms Badenoch and Liz Truss. But now, the former home secretary and key Johnson ally is back, building her base almost entirely hidden from view.
Image: One MP is on manoeuvres to take over the Tory party if they lose the next election. Pic: PA
My ears were first pricked in December when I was talking to a senior figure in the ‘One Nation’ wing of the party – that is home to Tory MPs who are more socially liberal and politically positioned on the centre-right.
As this figure was bemoaning the horrors, as they saw it, of a Braverman leadership bid after the election, they told me that Priti Patel was at least someone on that wing of the party they could do business with. The former cabinet minister acknowledged that the right is likely to take the leadership crown after the election, given the leanings of the Conservative party members who get to choose, and that Patel looks, for now, the pick of an unpalatable bunch for Tory centrists.
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Image: Priti Patel is said to be on manoeuvres. Pic: Reuters
And then earlier this month, up Priti Patel popped at the launch of a new grouping – the Popular Conservatives – spearheaded (I know, the irony isn’t missed on me) by Liz Truss.
She is a politician building alliances over all sorts of groupings and even cross-party: when I raised Priti Patel as my dark horse in the likely up-and-coming leadership race, it certainly chimed with Ruth and Jess, with the latter telling us how surprised she’d been when former home secretary Amber Rudd, very much a One Nation Conservative, told her over dinner how she worked well with Priti: “I remember being like, how is this?”
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Jess also told me how Patel was with her after MP Sir David Amess was murdered in his constituency: “Those of us who are the highest security risk, of which I am one of ten, they really ramped up our security on these occasions, as they always do in these moments.
“And Priti Patel [who at the time was home secretary] was really good friends with David.
“I mean she was his [constituency] neighbour. And every Sunday night, for four weeks, at about 9pm at night, she would ring me and ask if I was all right. You don’t forget that sort of thing.”
Electoral Dysfunction
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It’s particularly pertinent this week as concerns over MPs’ safety come to the fore over the divisive vote around a ceasefire in Gaza. In the week parliament finally backed an immediate ceasefire – a position which has taken Labour months to move to – this significant moment was drowned out by the spectacle of wrangling and rows over parliamentary procedure and partisan point-scoring from which no one emerged well.
The Speaker has had a particularly torrid 24 hours as dozens of MPs called for him to go after Sir Lindsay Hoyle broke decades of parliamentary precedent to allow all three main parties to put their position on a ceasefire to a vote.
The effect was to let Labour off the hook by avoiding a massive rebellion because it meant Starmer’s MPs could vote for the Labour ceasefire amendment instead of having to defy the whip and support the SNP ceasefire motion. But the Speaker was clear his motive was all about MPs’ safety.
There are those in parliament – like Rishi Sunak – who believe strongly concerns over MPs’ safety shouldn’t ever influence business in the Commons, not least because it could set a dangerous precedent of MPs being intimidated in order to change what they debate and how they vote.
But there is also a lot of chatter on some of the female MPs’ WhatsApp groups about their experiences and concerns over threats, with some – particularly Labour women – having to deal with physical confrontations with protests over the Israel-Hamas conflict.
One Conservative MP told me this week she was “riddled with anxiety” ahead of this week’s vote over what to do. “I’m angry that we’re being put in this position,” she told me.
“We get cast as either child murderers or antisemitic and I’m neither. I believe a nation has a right to defend itself against terrorists but I’m also a pacifist.
“There is no nuance in [this] vote, which is totally irrelevant anyway, just a binary perception of whether you’re for or against a ceasefire.”
So for all of those MPs angry at Sir Lindsay, there are others who are quietly thankful that he takes their safety so seriously and tried to cushion the fallout of this divisive SNP opposition day.
For now, it looks like he’s staying in post. What I can also confidently say will be a mainstay of this year is MPs’ safety, as we head into what is almost certainly going to be a very nasty election campaign. Something for me, Jess, Ruth to chew over in coming episodes.
Migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu was given £500 to be deported to Ethiopia following his mistaken release from prison, Sky News understands.
The government, who confirmed he was escorted on to a plane at Heathrow Airport on Tuesday night, said he has no right to return to the UK.
But Sky News understands Kebatu was handed a discretionary payment of £500 as part of efforts to avoid a lengthy legal challenge after he made threats to disrupt his removal.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said she “pulled every lever” to deport Kebatu, although it is thought the decision about the payment was made by removal teams, not ministers.
“I am pleased to confirm this vile child sex offender has been deported. Our streets are safer because of it,” she said.
Image: Hadush Kebatu seen on the plane during his deportation flight
Image: Hadush Kebatu was arrested on Sunday after his mistaken release
He was expected to be deported, but instead of being handed over to immigration officials, he was released in error from HMP Chelmsford on Friday.
He spent just under 48 hours at large before he was apprehended.
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2:52
Prisoner releases: ‘A problem on the rise’
The accidental release sparked widespread alarm and questions over how a man whose crimes sparked protests in Epping over the use of asylum hotels was able to be freed.
Ms Mahmood said: “Last week’s blunder should never have happened – and I share the public’s anger that it did.”
Image: Anti-asylum demonstrators in Epping, Essex. Pic: PA
On Sunday, Justice Secretary David Lammy said an exclusive Sky News interview will be used as part of an independent inquiry into the mistaken release.
Speaking to Sky’s national correspondent Tom Parmenter, a delivery driver who spoke to Kebatu at HMP Chelmsford described him as being “confused” as he was being guided to the railway station by prison staff.
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5:44
Local council reads family statement: ‘My family feels massively let down’
The migrant is said to have returned to the prison reception four or five times before leaving the area on a train heading to London.
Mr Lammy, who put Kebatu’s release down to human error, said he has ordered an “urgent review” into the checks that take place when an offender is released from prison, and new safeguards have been added that amount to the “strongest release checks that have ever been in place”.
A university academic who is receiving “substantial damages” for how he was portrayed in a film has told Sky News he hasn’t received an apology from star Steve Coogan – nor the two companies involved in its production.
Richard Taylor said he was “shell-shocked” after seeing The Lost King for the first time, a film about how Richard III’s skeleton was discovered below a car park in Leicester.
He told The UK Tonight with Sarah-Jane Mee:“I wasn’t consulted or even knew I was in the film. The first I hear is I get a phone call while I’m on holiday – and eventually, after press previews, I persuade the producers to let me see a preview.”
Image: Richard III
Last year, a judge ruled that Mr Taylor was depicted as “smug, unduly dismissive and patronising” – with the plot suggesting he “knowingly” misled the public.
“I’m portrayed by someone on screen who looks like me, who sounds like me, who dresses like me – but behaves in a way that falls so far short of the standards I set for myself and what others might reasonably expect of me,” the academic explained.
Mr Taylor revealed he received emails at work telling him to “rot in hell”, while others described him as a “disgrace”.
He added: “Something that was a collaborative effort that showcased the best of British universities in my view was turned into this farce – where I was the villain and portrayed in a way that was completely inconsistent with the reality and the truth.”
Now chief operating officer at Loughborough University, Mr Taylor said “none of the facts” in the 2022 film were ever checked – and the Alan Partridge star, his company Baby Cow and Pathe Productions did not reach out to him before its release.
“The producers just went ahead, filmed it, produced it, stuck it out there and left me to deal with all the flack and all the fallout from it. Grossly unfair and I feel vindicated from the result we’ve achieved,” he told Sky News.
Image: Steve Coogan and two production companies have agreed to pay ‘substantial damages’. Pic: PA
‘The film’s going to look pretty silly’
As part of the settlement, an on-screen clarification will now be added to the start of the film, but no scenes will be removed.
When asked whether he was satisfied with this outcome, Mr Taylor replied: “I’d have liked them to re-edit the film, but one’s got to be realistic about what one can achieve.
“The insertion of the card will say that the person on screen is a fictitious portrayal – and the real Richard Taylor didn’t behave like that … so the film’s going to look pretty silly.”
Image: The statue of Richard III outside Leicester Cathedral. Pic: Shropshire Matt/PA
The case was due to proceed to trial, but a High Court hearing on Monday heard that the parties had settled the claim.
In a statement afterwards, Cooganhad said: “If it wasn’t for Philippa Langley, Richard III would still be lying under a car park in Leicester. It is her name that will be remembered in relation to the discovery of the lost king, long after Richard Taylor has faded into obscurity.”
He went on to add: “That is the story I wanted to tell, and I am happy I did.”
Reacting to the statement, Mr Taylor argued “it’s a pretty strange definition of happy when you’ve had to settle a defamation claim for seven figures in costs”.
He said: “Steve is never anything other than certain in himself and of his own position, but I think he’s got it wrong – basic facts were not checked.”
Rachel Reeves has said she is determined to “defy” forecasts that suggest she will face a multibillion-pound black hole in next month’s budget, but has indicated there are some tough choices on the way.
Writing in The Guardian, the chancellor argued the “foundations of Britain’s economy remain strong” – and rejected claims the country is in a permanent state of decline.
Reports have suggested the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its productivity growth forecast by about 0.3 percentage points.
Image: Rachel Reeves. PA file pic
That means the Treasury will take in less tax than expected over the coming years – and this could leave a gap of up to £40bn in the country’s finances.
Ms Reeves wrote she would not “pre-empt” these forecasts, and her job “is not to relitigate the past or let past mistakes determine our future”.
“I am determined that we don’t simply accept the forecasts, but we defy them, as we already have this year. To do so means taking necessary choices today, including at the budget next month,” the chancellor added.
She also pointed to five interest rate cuts, three trade deals with major economies and wages outpacing inflation as evidence Labour has made progress since the election.
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4:17
Chancellor faces tough budget choices
Budget decisions ‘don’t come for free’
Although her article didn’t address this, she admitted “our country and our economy continue to face challenges”.
Her opinion piece said: “The decisions I will take at the budget don’t come for free, and they are not easy – but they are the right, fair and necessary choices.”
Yesterday, Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates reported that Ms Reeves is unlikely to raise the basic rates of income tax or national insurance, to avoid breaking a promise to protect “working people” in the budget.
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This, in theory, means those on higher salaries could be the ones to face a squeeze in the budget – with the Treasury stating that it does not comment on tax measures.
In other developments, some top economists have warned Ms Reeves that increasing income tax or reducing public spending is her only option for balancing the books.
Experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies have cautioned the chancellor against opting to hike alternative taxes instead, telling The Independent this would “cause unnecessary amounts of economic damage”.
Although such an approach would help the chancellor avoid breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge, it is feared a series of smaller changes would make the tax system “ever more complicated and less efficient”.