New research has revealed a huge lead for Labour in coastal towns and communities.
Exclusive polling from the Fabian Society shows that in 108 constituencies in England and Wales that contain at least one coastal town, Labour leads with 52% of the vote.
Coastal towns and communities – dubbed the ‘sea wall’ – will be vital in the race to win the general election – and Labour has never led the Tories in these regions by such a margin before.
The polling shows the Conservatives lag behind on 21%, with the Reform party fairly close behind that with 14% of the vote.
This represents a significant 31% lead and a swing of 27 percentage points compared to 2019.
Turning tide?
Though often neglected, coastal towns are a vital and distinctive group that have long been an indicator of which political party will be the governing one, with the coast often voting in line with political change.
It is why most coastal seats are currently held by the Conservatives.
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But, according to this new research, the tide could be turning.
Some 44% of voters in the sea wall said they would never consider voting Conservative now, compared to 29% for Labour.
When asked which political party, if any, would be better at tackling the cost of living, 38% of respondents in the sea wall selected Labour – compared to 23% that chose the Conservatives.
The poll was conducted between 17 and 18 January on behalf of YouGov and the Fabian Society, which is affiliated with the Labour Party.
Ben Cooper, the Fabian Society’s research manager, said: “Polling shows that Labour has a substantial lead across the sea wall, is the preferred government for many voters living in coastal towns, and is most trusted on the cost of living.
“But there remains significant uncertainty about whether Labour’s polling lead will be as large in the sea wall when all the votes are counted, with a large proportion undecided or considering Reform who may swing back to the Conservatives – particularly at a general election.”
Image: Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson in Blackpool. PA
Rural vote
The traditional view has been that rural voters go Conservative.
But in a clear sign that this core vote could be at risk of crumbling, Rishi Sunak this week made a personal pledge to farmers at the NFU conference – the first prime minister to address the conference in person in 15 years.
Coastal communities are distinct in that they usually have a larger proportion of over 50s than the national average, as well as a larger proportion of homeowners.
Housinghas already proved to play a major role in any upcoming general election in these areas – especially in Devon where Sky News reported from last year.
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We might not have to wait for a general election to see how ‘sea wall’ voters may be leaning.
MP Scott Benton was caught in a lobbying scandal and faces a vote next week to trigger a recall petition that could then lead to a by-election.
It means the former Conservative’s sea wall seat of Blackpool South could soon be up for grabs.
While by-elections are not a perfect test of the national picture, this will be the first indication of whether these voters are preparing the way for a sea-change election.
A Royal Navy patrol ship has intercepted two Russian vessels off the UK coast, the Ministry of Defence has said.
It comes after Defence Secretary John Healey announced last Wednesday that lasers from Russian spy ship the Yantar were directed at RAF pilots tracking it, in an attempt to disrupt the monitoring.
The MoD said on Sunday that in a “round-the-clock shadowing operation”, the Royal Navy ship HMS Severn has intercepted Russian warship RFN Stoikiy and tanker Yelnya off the UK coast in the past fortnight.
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Russian ship ‘directed lasers at our pilots’
The Russian vessels sailed through the Dover Strait and westward through the English Channel, the MoD said.
HMS Severn later handed over monitoring duties to a NATO ally off the coast of Brittany, France, it said, but continued to watch from a distance and remained ready to respond to any unexpected activity.
The ministry added that the UK’s armed forces are on patrol “from the English Channel to the High North” amid increased Russian activity threatening UK waters.
At a news conference in Downing Street on Wednesday, Mr Healey said the spy ship was on the edge of British waters north of Scotland, having entered wider UK waters over the last few weeks.
He said it was the second time this year the Yantar had been deployed off the UK coast and he claimed it was “designed for gathering intelligence and mapping our undersea cables”.
Image: HMS Severn tracking of Russian corvette RFN Stoikiy and tanker Yelnya off the UK coast. Pic: MoD
Mr Healey said the ship had “directed lasers” at pilots of a P-8 surveillance aircraft monitoring its activities – a Russian action he deemed “deeply dangerous”.
In a clear message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the defence secretary said: “We see you. We know what you are doing. And we are ready.”
The ministry said while tracking the Yantar, Royal Navy frigate HMS Somerset and other civilian ships in the area “experienced GPS jamming in a further demonstration of unprofessional behaviour, intended to be disruptive and a nuisance”.
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What is Russian spy ship up to?
Russia’s UK embassy dismissed the accusations and insisted the Yantar is a research ship in international waters.
The defence secretary also repeated government plans to increase defence spending and work with NATO allies to bolster European security.
And he stressed how plans to buy weapons and build arms factories will create jobs and economic growth.
Image: HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship the Yantar near UK waters on 22 January 2025. File pic: Royal Navy/PA
A report by a group of MPs, also released on Wednesday, underlined the scale of the challenge the UK faces.
It accused the government of lacking a national plan to defend itself from attack.
The Defence Select Committee also warned that Mr Healey, the prime minister and the rest of the cabinet are moving at a “glacial” pace to fix the issue and are failing to launch a “national conversation on defence and security” – something Sir Keir Starmer had promised last year.
Image: Russian ship the Yantar transiting through the English Channel. File pic: MoD
The UK has seen a 30% increase in Russian vessels threatening UK waters in the past two years, according to the MoD.
But the ministry maintained the UK has a wide range of military options at its disposal to keep UK waters safe.
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Three RAF P-8 Poseidon aircraft have deployed to Keflavik Air Base in Iceland in the largest overseas deployment of the RAF P-8 fleet so far, the MoD said.
They are conducting surveillance operations as part of NATO’s collective defence, patrolling for Russian ships and submarines in the North Atlantic and Arctic.
The operations come just weeks after HMS Duncan tracked the movements of Russian destroyer Vice Admiral Kulakov, and frigate HMS Iron Duke was dispatched to monitor Russian Kilo-class submarine Novorossiysk.
West Midlands Police has defended the ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending an Aston Villa match after it was claimed that false intelligence was used.
Supporters of the Israeli club were barred from the Europa League fixture at Villa Park on 6 November.
West Midlands Police chief superintendent Tom Joyce told Sky News before the game that a “section” of Maccabi’s fanbase engaged in “quite significant levels of hooliganism”.
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‘Hooliganism’ blamed for Maccabi Tel Aviv ban
According to The Sunday Times, West Midlands Police claimed in a confidential dossier that when Maccabi played Ajax in Amsterdam last year, Israeli fans threw “innocent members of the public into the river”, and added that between 500 and 600 supporters had “intentionally targeted Muslim communities”.
The report also said 5,000 Dutch police officers had been deployed in response.
However, the Netherlands’ national police force has questioned the claims, reportedly describing information cited by its British officers as “not true” and in some instances obviously inaccurate.
Sebastiaan Meijer, a spokesman for the Amsterdam division, told The Sunday Times that he was “surprised” by allegations in the West Midlands Police report, which had linked 200 travelling supporters to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF).
Mr Meijer denied that his force had such intelligence, adding that the claim was meaningless given the country had a policy of conscription.
Also, Mr Meijer said that Amsterdam’s force “does not recognise” the claim in the British report, attributed to Dutch law enforcement, that Israelis were “highly organised, skilled fighters with a serious desire and will to fight with police and opposing groups”.
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Heavy police presence for Aston Villa v Maccabi Tel Aviv
The Dutch police added that the only known case of a fan being in the river appeared to involve a Maccabi supporter. While being filmed, he was told he could leave the water on the condition that he said “Free Palestine”.
In an interview with Sky News before the game, West Midlands Police referenced disorder when Maccabi played Ajax in Amsterdam last November.
Mr Joyce said ahead of the Villa Park match: “We’ve had examples where a section of Maccabi fans were targeting people not involved in football matches, and certainly we had an incident in Amsterdam last year which has informed some of our decision-making.
“So it is exclusively a decision we made on the basis of the behaviour of a sub-section of Maccabi fans, but all the reaction that could occur obviously formed part of that as well.”
Image: Pro-Israel supporters are led away from Villa Park before a Europa League tie on 6 November. Pic: PA
Maccabi’s visit to Birmingham came amid heightened tensions due to Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza.
A safety advisory group (SAG) recommended that Maccabi fans should be banned from attending the fixture on the advice of the police. The ban drew criticism, and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said it was the “wrong decision”.
Image: Mounted police outside Villa Park for the game. Pic: PA
West Midland Police’s statement in full
Following The Sunday Times report, West Midlands Police stood by its “information and intelligence”, adding that the “Maccabi Fanatics… posed a credible threat to safety”.
In a statement to Sky News, the force said: “West Midlands Police’s evaluation was based primarily on information and intelligence and had public safety at its heart.
“We assessed the fixture between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv in Amsterdam as having involved significant public disorder.
“We met with Dutch police on 1 October, where information relating to that 2024 fixture was shared with us.
“Informed by information and intelligence, we concluded that Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters – specifically the subgroup known as the Maccabi Fanatics – posed a credible threat to public safety.
“The submission made to the SAG safety advisory group was based on information and intelligence which helped shape understanding of the risks.
“West Midlands Police commissioned a peer review, which was conducted by UKFPU [United Kingdom Policing Unit], the NPCC [National Police Chiefs’ Council] and subject matter experts.
“This review, carried out on 20 October, fully endorsed the force’s approach and decision-making.
“We are satisfied that the policing strategy and operational plan was effective, proportionate, and maintained the city’s reputation as a safe and welcoming place for everyone.”
The watch, which had remained in the couple’s family, was sold at Henry Aldridge & Son Auctioneers in Devizes, Wiltshire.
The £1.78m for the item is the highest amount ever paid for Titanic memorabilia, according to the company.
A letter written by Mrs Straus on Titanic stationery and posted while onboard the ship fetched £100,000.
The previous record was set last year when another gold pocket watch presented to the captain of a boat that rescued over 700 passengers from the liner sold for £1.56m.