New research has revealed a huge lead for Labour in coastal towns and communities.
Exclusive polling from the Fabian Society shows that in 108 constituencies in England and Wales that contain at least one coastal town, Labour leads with 52% of the vote.
Coastal towns and communities – dubbed the ‘sea wall’ – will be vital in the race to win the general election – and Labour has never led the Tories in these regions by such a margin before.
The polling shows the Conservatives lag behind on 21%, with the Reform party fairly close behind that with 14% of the vote.
This represents a significant 31% lead and a swing of 27 percentage points compared to 2019.
Turning tide?
Though often neglected, coastal towns are a vital and distinctive group that have long been an indicator of which political party will be the governing one, with the coast often voting in line with political change.
It is why most coastal seats are currently held by the Conservatives.
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But, according to this new research, the tide could be turning.
Some 44% of voters in the sea wall said they would never consider voting Conservative now, compared to 29% for Labour.
When asked which political party, if any, would be better at tackling the cost of living, 38% of respondents in the sea wall selected Labour – compared to 23% that chose the Conservatives.
The poll was conducted between 17 and 18 January on behalf of YouGov and the Fabian Society, which is affiliated with the Labour Party.
Ben Cooper, the Fabian Society’s research manager, said: “Polling shows that Labour has a substantial lead across the sea wall, is the preferred government for many voters living in coastal towns, and is most trusted on the cost of living.
“But there remains significant uncertainty about whether Labour’s polling lead will be as large in the sea wall when all the votes are counted, with a large proportion undecided or considering Reform who may swing back to the Conservatives – particularly at a general election.”
Rural vote
The traditional view has been that rural voters go Conservative.
But in a clear sign that this core vote could be at risk of crumbling, Rishi Sunak this week made a personal pledge to farmers at the NFU conference – the first prime minister to address the conference in person in 15 years.
Coastal communities are distinct in that they usually have a larger proportion of over 50s than the national average, as well as a larger proportion of homeowners.
Housinghas already proved to play a major role in any upcoming general election in these areas – especially in Devon where Sky News reported from last year.
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We might not have to wait for a general election to see how ‘sea wall’ voters may be leaning.
MP Scott Benton was caught in a lobbying scandal and faces a vote next week to trigger a recall petition that could then lead to a by-election.
It means the former Conservative’s sea wall seat of Blackpool South could soon be up for grabs.
While by-elections are not a perfect test of the national picture, this will be the first indication of whether these voters are preparing the way for a sea-change election.
A woman casually walks into a convenience store and starts filling a bread crate with goods from one of the aisles.
A shop assistant tries to stop her, but she shrugs him off, undeterred. With the crate now full of items, she leaves without paying.
It is a scenario that is played out day in and day out across Britain, as retailers warn the surge in shoplifting is now “out of control”.
I’m sitting in the security office of a busy city centre shop and I’m watching as a schoolboy walks in and helps himself to a sandwich, stuffing it into his jacket.
Watching with me is shop worker Anton Mavroianu who positions himself by the main entrance waiting for the youngster to leave.
When the boy does leave, Anton demands the item back. Instead of being frozen with fear that he’s been caught, the boy laughs and walks off.
“All we can do is try to stop them,” Anton tells me. “But this is just another day for us.”
A few weeks earlier, when Anton tried to stop a shoplifter who had stolen from the store, the man pulled out a knife and tried to attack him.
This terrifying incident is an example of the very real threat posed to shop workers as they try to stem the tide of brazen thefts.
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Shoplifting offences recorded by police in England and Wales have risen to the highest level in 20 years.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) also reports that theft-related losses cost the retail sector millions each year, adding strain to an industry already grappling with post-pandemic recovery and economic uncertainty.
For small businesses, which lack the resources of larger chains, persistent theft can threaten their very survival.
Ricky Dougall owns a chain of convenience stores and says shoplifting cost his business around £100,000 last year.
“Shoplifting is a huge problem and it is what stops us from growing the business.
“People come in and help themselves like they own the place and when you call the police, most of the time, they don’t turn up.”
Mr Dougall says part of the problem is how this type of crime is classified.
Sentencing guidelines for thefts of under £200, so-called “low level shoplifting”, were relaxed in 2016. That is being blamed for the surge in cases.
An exclusive Sky News and Association of Convenience Stores survey shows that 80% of shopkeepers surveyed had an incident of retail crime in the past week.
The poll also found 94% of shopkeepers say that in their experience, shoplifting has got worse over the last year, with 83% not confident that the police will take action against the perpetrators of retail crime on their premises.
Paul Cheema from the Association of Convenience Stores says retailers are looking to Government to support them.
“I would say officials do not give a s*** about us retailers,” he tells me. “The losses are too big and I don’t think we can sustain that anymore.
“I would urge Keir Starmer to come and meet us and see up close the challenges that we are facing.”
Retailers have responded by investing heavily in security measures, from advanced surveillance systems to hiring more security staff.
But these investments come at a cost, often passed down to consumers through higher prices.
I get chatting to Matt Roberts, head of retail in the store I am in. He worries about shoplifting, but he worries about the staff more.
“I would imagine they dread coming to work because they’re always on tenterhooks wondering whether something is going to happen today, whether they are going to have to try and confront someone.
“It’s a horrible feeling. It’s out of control and we need help.”
The government has acknowledged the urgency of the issue. Home Secretary-led discussions with retail associations and law enforcement are underway to craft a comprehensive strategy.
In the King’s Speech, the government outlined details of a Crime and Policing Bill, which promised to “introduce stronger measures to tackle low level shoplifting”, as well as introducing a separate offence for assaulting a shop worker.
Children do not feel safe, a charity has warned, as a survey finds two-thirds of teens in England and Wales have a fear of violence.
The charity, which surveyed 10,000 children aged 13-17, found that 20% of teenagers have been victims of violence in the past 12 months.
“I think what shocked me most is how this is a problem that affects all of our children,” said Jon Yates, CEO of the Youth Endowment Fund.
“We found that two-thirds of all teenage children are afraid. And that fear is pretty real for a lot of them.”
He said it’s a fear so palpable that many teenage children are changing their patterns of behaviour, or have had it influence their daily decisions.
One third of teenage children – 33% – reported avoiding areas, whilst around 27% alter their travel routes or avoid public transport altogether to stay safe.
More worryingly, however, some say the fear of violence has led to mental health challenges, with 22% reporting difficulties sleeping, reduced appetite and concentrating in school.
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Weapon carrying is also a concern for the charity, especially among vulnerable groups.
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3:55
From September: Young gangs of Wolverhampton
In England and Wales, 5% of all 13-17 year olds reported carrying a weapon in the past year, but that figure jumps to 21% for those suspended from school and 36% for children who have been excluded from school.
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But Mr Yates said “shockingly” only 12% of children who repeatedly commit violence get any sort of support.
“That’s madness,” he said.
Jay*, 23, from Birmingham said depending on your environment, sometimes violence is hard to avoid.
“I’ve had friends be shot, I’ve got friends who have been stabbed, I had a friend die last month to be fair,” Jay told Sky News.
He said it is “damaging” because you never really get the opportunity to “heal”. He is now being supported by the charity Project Lifeline, but says before then it was difficult to find any hope.
“If you don’t have hope,” Jay added, “you can’t really get anywhere. It’s about finding that hope.”
Mark Rodney, CEO of Lifeline Project, mentors at-risk young children and said he has learned that “not only the perpetrator carries the knife, the victim sometimes carries the knife”.
“And not only the perpetrator does the killing,” he added. “The victim sometimes does the killing, because that’s where we’re at.”
He said far too many families ask themselves “is my child safe going to school or coming home from school?” and adds the government must “actually start addressing people’s concerns”.
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15:46
From September: Home Sec vows to halve knife crime
The report also found that in 93% of cases where teenage children repeatedly harm others, adults intervene with punishments such as school discipline or police involvement.
However, only 12% of these children are offered support aimed at addressing the root causes of violence and preventing further harm.
Mr Yates said: “They go to school, they do something violent. They get excluded.”
He added: “We need to be much better at saying, ‘we’re not going to lose that child. We’re going to keep providing support to them. We’re going to keep providing a mentor’.
“Instead, we let them fall through the cracks”.
A government spokesperson said: “Halving knife crime in a decade is a clear mission this government has set out.
“It is vital to protect vulnerable young people who are too often the victims or perpetrators of this crime.”