NHL Power Rankings: A new No. 1, plus playoff chances for all 32 teams
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
We’re officially two weeks away from the NHL trade deadline on March 8, and teams will be making moves between now and then to either bolster their Stanley Cup chances or build for the future.
Along with a new No. 1 team on the Power Rankings this week, we are breaking down each team’s updated playoff chances, as determined by Stathletes projections.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Feb. 16. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 68.42%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Florida could be the first team to make consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances since their state rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, did it in 2020 and 2021 (and 2022 as well). And this time, the Panthers have a better opportunity to come away victorious.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Feb. 24), vs. BUF (Feb. 27), vs. MTL (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 68.97%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Boston experienced last spring how anything can happen once the postseason begins. The key for the Bruins is not to be haunted by the past in their next playoff opportunity.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Feb. 24), @ SEA (Feb. 26), vs. VGK (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 67.80%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Vancouver has shocked the hockey world as this season’s breakout club. Even the current slump shouldn’t hurt their chances of a playoff berth. Vancouver has excelled from top to bottom more often than not, so the real icing on their cake will be racking up series wins in the postseason.
Next seven days: vs. BOS (Feb. 24), vs. PIT (Feb. 27), vs. LA (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 69.30%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. New York has been on such a heater lately — did you see that Stadium Series comeback? — that it’s almost insulting there’s even a 0.3% possibility they don’t get in on postseason action.
Next seven days: @ PHI (Feb. 24), @ CBJ (Feb. 25), vs. CBJ (Feb. 28)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 65.52%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Dallas has a deep team, and that has been its backbone through every challenge faced this season. The Stars will need their resiliency intact to make a long run in the playoffs.
Next seven days: @ CAR (Feb. 24), vs. NYI (Feb. 26), @ COL (Feb. 27), vs. WPG (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 64.66%
Playoff chances: 98.6%. Colorado has battled tough stretches this season. But thanks to Nathan MacKinnon driving the bus at game-changing speed, there’s little chance the Avalanche won’t make playoffs. The question is: What can they do once they get there?
Next seven days: vs. TOR (Feb. 24), vs. DAL (Feb. 27), @ CHI (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 67.59%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Winnipeg will get to the postseason. The true curiosity is how the Jets will fare once they’re in it. Winnipeg has a top-tier goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck and a lineup littered with star power. But have we seen the best of the Jets already? Or are there even greater things to come?
Next seven days: @ CHI (Feb. 23), vs. ARI (Feb. 25), vs. STL (Feb. 27), @ DAL (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 64.15%
Playoff chances: 99.8%. Edmonton already graduated from early-season disappointment to postseason lock. Now the Oilers are among the current favorites to win it all (at 11.9%). That’s a glow-up if ever we’ve seen one.
Next seven days: vs. MIN (Feb. 23), vs. CGY (Feb. 24), vs. (Feb. 26), vs. STL (Feb. 28)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 64.29%
Playoff chances: 97.7%. Toronto can thank Auston Matthews‘ consistently spectacular play this season for basically ensuring they’ll be in good position for the playoffs. Naturally, getting in will mean nothing for the Leafs (or Matthews) if they can’t produce when it counts.
Next seven days: @ COL (Feb. 24), vs. VGK (Feb. 27), vs. ARI (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 65.18%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Carolina stumbling in uncharacteristic fashion to start the season raised red flags. Turns out, we need not have worried about the Canes. They’ll not only be in the postseason but — with a trade deadline upgrade? — should be among the Eastern Conference favorites.
Next seven days: vs. DAL (Feb. 24), @ BUF (Feb. 25), @ MIN (Feb. 27), @ CBJ (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 61.40%
Playoff chances: 96.7%. Vegas has shown some signs of a lingering Cup hangover. But like every veteran reveler in Sin City, the Golden Knights find ways to rally. Odds are they’ll be in for another fruitful spring ahead.
Next seven days: @ OTT (Feb. 24), @ TOR (Feb. 27), @ BOS (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 60.00%
Playoff chances: 93.5%. Los Angeles is back on the rails after a rough two-win January cost coach Todd McLellan his job. Interim bench boss Jim Hiller has helped right the ship, and the Kings can use their adversity as a rallying point toward postseason success.
Next seven days: vs. ANA (Feb. 24), @ EDM (Feb. 26), @ CGY (Feb. 27), @ VAN (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 58.77%
Playoff chances: 76.8%. Philadelphia being a playoff team was not on the Bingo card this year. The Flyers might also be the team most likely to fall out of the conversation post-trade deadline. For now, though, Philadelphia’s trending in the right direction. Let’s see how far they can go.
Next seven days: vs. NYR (Feb. 24), @ PIT (Feb. 25), vs. TB (Feb. 27)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 58.93%
Playoff chances: 32.9%. Detroit is in position to finally host a playoff game within their stunning, state-of-the-art arena. All that stands in their way is keeping pace with some ultracompetitive Atlantic Division rivals.
Next seven days: vs. STL (Feb. 24), @ CHI (Feb. 25), vs. WSH (Feb. 27), vs. NYI (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 56.03%
Playoff chances: 80.0%. Tampa is in that murky middle of the Eastern Conference where their pendulum could swing either way. Are the Lightning able to hang from here with the Atlantic’s top squads? Are they wild-card material? Or … does Tampa Bay fall out altogether? It’ll be a wild ride from here to find out.
Next seven days: @ NYI (Feb. 24), @ NJ (Feb. 25), @ PHI (Feb. 27), vs. BUF (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 53.57%
Playoff chances: 41.7%. New Jersey was, at this time last year, a veritable lock for the playoffs. Things are different now. The Devils still have runway, but questions around goaltending and defense especially threaten to derail New Jersey, even if they do secure a spot.
Next seven days: vs. MTL (Feb. 24), vs. TB (Feb. 25), @ SJ (Feb. 27)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 53.57%
Playoff chances: 28.7%. New York did enough slipping and sliding already this season to warrant a coaching change (hello, Patrick Roy). Can the Islanders pull it together in time to recapture a wild-card slot? It’ll take more than just continuous star turns from Mathew Barzal to get there.
Next seven days: vs. TB (Feb. 24), @ DAL (Feb. 26), @ DET (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 54.39%
Playoff chances: 32.7%. Nashville is in a fight to grab one of the Western Conference’s wild-card spots. What the Predators do leading up to the trade deadline — will they boost the lineup or deal veterans away? — might tell the tale of where they end up.
Next seven days: @ SJ (Feb. 24), @ ANA (Feb. 25), vs. OTT (Feb. 27), vs. MIN (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 55.36%
Playoff chances: 10.5%. St. Louis’ streakiness has dampened its odds of being a postseason contender. Every winning stretch the Blues craft is seemingly followed by a landslide of losing.
Next seven days: @ DET (Feb. 24), @ WPG (Feb. 27), @ EDM (Feb. 28)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 54.55%
Playoff chances: 17.0%. Washington is on track to miss the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since a three-season dry spell from 2003-04 through 2006-07. Luckily the Capitals have a young team and up-and-coming coach on whom they can pin a brighter future.
Next seven days: @ FLA (Feb. 24), vs. OTT (Feb. 26), @ DET (Feb. 27)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 51.75%
Playoff chances: 26.6%. Calgary had high hopes going into this season that were swiftly damaged by losing 19 of its first 30 games. That’s a mammoth hole to climb out of, and the Flames don’t look poised for a clandestine run from here to the postseason. Trading more roster players ahead of the deadline would signal that the rebuild is officially on.
Next seven days: @ EDM (Feb. 24), vs. LA (Feb. 27)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 53.70%
Playoff chances: 22.9%. Pittsburgh should qualify as the season’s most surprising free fall. Who would have expected the Penguins to have such long postseason odds after they added new GM Kyle Dubas, acquired the likes of Erik Karlsson and Reilly Smith and have gotten MVP-caliber play from Sidney Crosby? Baffling.
Next seven days: vs. PHI (Feb. 25), @ VAN (Feb. 27), @ SEA (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 51.79%
Playoff chances: 20.2%. Minnesota tried salvaging its season with a coaching change. It hasn’t entirely worked yet. The Wild are at risk of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018-19, and that would be a shame for hockey fans hoping to see Marc-Andre Fleury get what might be one last postseason run.
Next seven days: @ EDM (Feb. 23), @ SEA (Feb. 24), vs. CAR (Feb. 27), @ NSH (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 52.68%
Playoff chances: 21.2%. Seattle may just be outmatched by their fellow Western Conference foes. The magic that boosted the Kraken in their sophomore season was lacking in year three. There could be a long summer looming for Seattle to ponder what went wrong.
Next seven days: vs. MIN (Feb. 24), vs. BOS (Feb. 26), vs. PIT (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 48.21%
Playoff chances: 1.6%. Buffalo being at slightly better than 1% odds here is a total, utter disappointment. This season was supposed to change the narrative and show an established, winning culture. Better luck next year?
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Feb. 23), vs. CAR (Feb. 25), @ FLA (Feb. 27), @ TB (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 45.61%
Playoff chances: ~0%. Montreal is somewhere within a cooly calculated rebuild. When will it end for the Canadiens? Only GM Kent Hughes can say for certain.
Next seven days: @ NJ (Feb. 24), vs. ARI (Feb. 27), @ FLA (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 44.64%
Playoff chances: 0.3%. Arizona can’t change their own playoff destiny at this stage. The Coyotes could play spoiler down the stretch though, wielding a lineup filled with budding talents who should make them contenders in seasons ahead.
Next seven days: @ WPG (Feb. 25), @ MTL (Feb. 27), @ TOR (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 47.22%
Playoff chances: 0.8%. Ottawa made adjustments everywhere from its ownership to front office execs to coaching staff. And still the Senators are on the outside looking in. Whatever their elusive winning formula is, it feels out of reach this season.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Feb. 24), @ WSH (Feb. 25), @ NSH (Feb. 27)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 41.82%
Playoff chances: ~0%. Columbus knew long ago when its last game would be this season. But at least they’re only one year away from hosting the next Stadium Series clash at Ohio State. Silver linings!
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Feb. 23), vs. NYR (Feb. 25), @ NYR (Feb. 28), vs. CAR (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 37.50%
Playoff chances: ~0%. Anaheim won’t have to wonder about its postseason odds. Just the draft lottery ones.
Next seven days: @ LA (Feb. 24), vs. NSH (Feb. 25), @ SJ (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 31.82%
Playoff chances: ~0%. San Jose might come first in being officially eliminated from playoff contention. So there’s that.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Feb. 24), vs. NJ (Feb. 27), vs. ANA (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 28.95%
Playoff chances: ~0%. Chicago has Connor Bedard back on the ice. Eventually, the Blackhawks will have a shot at the playoffs again, too.
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Feb. 23), vs. DET (Feb. 25), vs. COL (Feb. 29)
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
The committee has revealed its third set of rankings this season, and aside from BYU tumbling after a loss and Tennessee falling just outside the current playoff field, not much has changed.
But that doesn’t mean there’s not a reason to be outraged. Indeed, it means the committee had a whole week to fix the mistakes it had already made, and it chose not to!
So, who should be most angry this week? Grab a pillow to scream into and a stress ball to clutch. We’ve got a lot to get off our chests.
A fact the committee made clear this week: Beating Mercer by 45 points is better than sitting at home on the couch.
So it is that Alabama, which was ranked behind Miami last week, beat up on a hapless FCS opponent and jumped Miami during the Canes’ open date.
Was there a message in this?
Surely, the message could be that taking the week off isn’t something to be rewarded, but we’re betting that’s not a message the committee wants to send while coaches are arguing about the value of playing in a conference title game.
Is the message that blowing out a team from the Southern Conference is really impressive? All due respect to UMass-Lowell, but we doubt it.
No, the message seems to be that the ACC needs to understand its place in the pecking order, and the line starts behind Alabama. Funny, because we thought the ACC already got that message last year, when Florida State was left out.
Alas, Miami went from No. 4 in the first rankings all the way to No. 8 now, thanks to a one-possession loss to a solid (and underrated) Georgia Tech team. But is that fair?
Miami has four wins over SP+ top-40 teams this season — the same number as Alabama and twice as many as Notre Dame.
Miami has a better loss than either of the two teams directly in front of it: Georgia Tech is No. 55 by SP+. Vanderbilt (one of two losses for Alabama, remember) is No. 61. Northern Illinois, which beat Notre Dame in South Bend, is No. 84.
Miami’s problem, of course, is it lacks a signature win. Notre Dame has Texas A&M. Alabama has Georgia. Miami has … Florida ?
So perhaps the Canes shouldn’t be quite as mad at the committee here as they should be furious with Louisville. The Cardinals were the lynchpin victory for both Miami and SMU (and helped Notre Dame, too), but they bungled their way to a loss to Stanford that will be studied by future generations as a model of ineptitude.
That the committee has woefully undervalued SMU all season, has shoved Miami behind the two-loss Tide, and thinks Clemson is worse than Colorado is the real message here though. The ACC is a one-bid league. The committee is spelling it out loud and clear.
2. Everyone not named Texas in the SEC
Let’s state something at the top: Texas is probably quite good. It is, of course, not the Longhorns’ fault they joined the SEC and still drew a Big 12-caliber schedule. But facts are facts, and in a conference with six eight-win teams and four more already bowl eligible, Texas has played exactly two Power 4 opponents with a winning record this season. Those games resulted in a three-point win over Vanderbilt and a shellacking by Georgia.
But Texas has one loss, and the rest of the SEC competition has two or three. Is that all that should matter?
Will be interesting to see the SEC pecking order, and it’s hard to fault Texas for the schedule it was handed… but 1 team is not like the others here. pic.twitter.com/K6yISrTFN5
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 19, 2024
Ultimately, winning games is the most important thing, and the committee seems to recognize that with Indiana at No. 5, despite a schedule that might well have included a home game against Bishop Sycamore.
But is it all that matters? If Texas played Georgia’s schedule, would it still have a better record? Their head-to-head meeting would suggest otherwise.
Again, it’s hardly Texas’ fault the SEC rolled out the red carpet in Year 1. But it is up to Texas to impress when the spotlight is on, and since the blowout win against Michigan — a team vastly overrated at the time — the marquee moments have been mostly meh, right up to last week’s mediocrity against Arkansas.
Ultimately, an incredibly good SEC team — Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, South Carolina or Alabama — is going to end up having played a markedly tougher schedule, proved they can hang with the best of the best, and either go on the road for a arduous opening-round matchup or be left out altogether.
(Seriously, how is Georgia the 10th-best team in the country? There’s no logical argument.)
But Texas? Even with a loss to A&M, it’s hard to see the Horns falling from No. 3 to a place outside the top 11.
How bad was the Kansas loss?
There’s a good case to be made that the Jayhawks are an incredibly undervalued opponent right now. They opened the season ranked in the top 25, they’re just rounding into shape now, and they’ve been incredibly unlucky, going 1-5 in one-possession games. SP+ ranks Kansas as a better loss than Vandy or Georgia Tech. And BYU was still probably the better team in that game, but a special teams miscue cost the Cougars a win.
So what? BYU probably should’ve lost to SMU or Oklahoma State or Utah, and karma is a real jerk.
Still, let’s compare some résumés here.
Team A: 9-1, No. 13 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 12, loss to SP+ No. 84, 3 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team B: 9-1, No. 15 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 46, loss to SP+ No. 5, 0 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team C: 9-1, No. 9 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 22, loss to SP+ No. 55, 2 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team D: 9-1, No. 8 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 13, loss to SP+ No. 42, 3 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
They’re all in roughly the same demographic, sure, but if you’re splitting hairs, it’s hard not to split them in Team D’s direction, right?
Well, of course, Team D is BYU. And, of course, Team A (Notre Dame), B (Boise State) and C (Miami) are all ranked higher.
Way back when the playoff began and the committee was launched, the idea was not to adjust the rankings entirely off the previous week — sending teams that lose tumbling and teams that win inching up as attrition occurs above them — but to view each team’s résumé anew each week. But this committee is acting every bit like the AP voters of old — dropping Miami and Georgia and Tennessee and, particularly, BYU, because of recency bias rather than the sum total of the results. Heck, BYU is now behind SMU — a team with the same record the Cougars beat head to head!
And the real issue here? With BYU, Colorado and Arizona State all now ranked behind Boise State, the odds of the Big 12 missing an opening-round bye are looking pretty strong.
Maybe Coach Prime should use some of his considerable air time to mention that.
Speaking of Coach Prime, here we are again with the clearly superior two-loss Big 12 team ranked five spots behind Colorado.
Same record. Arizona State’s worst loss was by 10 without its starting quarterback. Colorado was blown out by Nebraska. ASU’s best win is against SP+ No. 18; Colorado’s is No. 49.
And, if we’re being honest, Kenny Dillingham’s postgame rants this season have been more entertaining than Deion’s, too.
1:07
ASU coach labels kicking game ‘atrocious,’ confirms tryouts for Monday
ASU coach Kenny Dillingham labels his team’s kicking game “atrocious” and says it will be hosting open tryouts on Monday.
This is a mistake by the committee, plain and simple.
5. The Power 4
We won’t get to say this very often, but the power players are getting screwed.
OK, not really. The SEC and Big Ten will be fine, and even if they’re not, they can cry themselves to sleep on giant piles of money.
But the fact remains that Boise State is primed for a first-round bye, and this week’s top 25 includes four teams from outside the traditional power conferences: Boise State, Army, Tulane and UNLV.
That’s the most during any one week since the final poll of the 2021 season that featured five, but among those were Houston, Cincinnati and BYU — all power conference teams now. Only twice before have four teams not currently in a power conference league (or the Pac-12) been ranked concurrently — in the wild COVID year of 2020, and for a single week in 2019 with Boise State, App State, Memphis and Navy.
Somewhere, Greg Sankey is diabolically petting a cat in an oversized chair and plotting revenge.
Also Angry: Duke, Pitt, Kansas State, Syracuse, James Madison and Washington State (all 7-3 or better, unranked and with more wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams than Illinois), SMU (9-1, No. 13), Georgia (8-2, No. 10. Seriously, who thinks there are nine better teams?)
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Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
Colorado coach Deion Sanders, who has his team pushing for a Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff appearance, says he doesn’t intend on leaving despite talk about him being a possible candidate for other jobs, including in the NFL.
Sanders has engineered an impressive turnaround at Colorado (8-2), which already has doubled its wins total from 2023. The Pro Football Hall of Famer, who began his college coaching career at Jackson State, has been mentioned as a potential candidate for current or expected NFL coach openings, including the Dallas Cowboys, where he played from 1995 to 1999 and won two Super Bowls.
Former Cowboys teammate Michael Irvin and others have mentioned Sanders for the Dallas job, if the team moves on from Mike McCarthy.
“I’m happy where I am, man,” Sanders said Tuesday. “I’ve got a kickstand down. You know what a kickstand is? … That means I’m resting. I’m good, I’m happy, I’m excited. I’m enthusiastic about where I am. I love it here, truly do.”
Sanders received a five-year, $29.5 million contract when he was hired at Colorado in late 2022, following a 1-11 season for the team. The 16th-ranked Buffaloes, who visit Kansas on Saturday, are two wins away from a spot in the Big 12 title game in their first season back in the conference. They are led by Heisman Trophy contenders Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, son of Deion Sanders. Both are set to depart for the NFL after the season, along with other key contributors.
But Colorado has had success adding transfers, and the Buffaloes are among the top candidates for quarterback Julian Lewis, ESPN’s No. 2 recruiting prospect in the 2025 class who decommitted from USC on Sunday.
Sanders on Tuesday also recognized several freshmen who are contributing to Colorado’s success this season.
“It says a lot about what we plan on being and the stability that we’re going to be here for a while,” Sanders said. “We ain’t going nowhere. We’re about to get comfortable.”
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Paolo Uggetti, ESPN
In its inaugural season as a member of the Big Ten, Oregon has officially clinched a spot in the conference title game — on a Tuesday.
The Ducks, again No. 1 in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, appeared to have clinched a berth in the championship when they beat Wisconsin on Saturday to go to 11-0 this season and 8-0 in conference play. The Big Ten, however, did not confirm that was the case until Tuesday afternoon.
“Following a comprehensive evaluation of all possible scenarios over the final two weeks of regular season play across all 18 teams, the Big Ten Conference determined there are no conditions whereby the Ducks do not finish No. 1 or No. 2 [in the league],” the conference said in a news release.
The conference also released a separate document outlining the 10 tiebreaker scenarios that could occur over the remaining games. The three teams vying for the other spot in the title game are Indiana (7-0 in conference play), Ohio State (6-1, with its only loss to Oregon) and Penn State (6-1, with its only loss to Ohio State). Each of those teams has two conference games remaining, and Ohio State and Indiana face off this weekend.
In eight of the 10 tiebreaker scenarios, Oregon would face either Indiana or Ohio State in a rematch of their thrilling October matchup that the Ducks won 32-31. If the Hoosiers beat the Buckeyes, they are bound for the title game even if they lose to Purdue the following week. If the Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers, they are in unless they lose to Michigan in the season finale.
Penn State can meet Oregon in the title game only if the Nittany Lions win out and get help on other fronts. Penn State would also need Indiana to lose to Ohio State and Purdue, and Ohio State to lose to Michigan. Alternatively, it would need Indiana to lose to Ohio State and beat Purdue while the cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents for Penn State remains higher than Indiana’s and Ohio State loses to Michigan.
Oregon is on a bye this week, then will face Washington on Nov. 30 in its final game of the regular season as the Ducks try to record an undefeated regular season for the second time in program history (2010). If Oregon beats Washington, it will also clinch an outright berth as the No. 1 seed in the title game.
The Big Ten title game is set for Dec. 7 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
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