NHL Power Rankings: A new No. 1, plus playoff chances for all 32 teams
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
We’re officially two weeks away from the NHL trade deadline on March 8, and teams will be making moves between now and then to either bolster their Stanley Cup chances or build for the future.
Along with a new No. 1 team on the Power Rankings this week, we are breaking down each team’s updated playoff chances, as determined by Stathletes projections.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Feb. 16. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 68.42%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Florida could be the first team to make consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances since their state rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, did it in 2020 and 2021 (and 2022 as well). And this time, the Panthers have a better opportunity to come away victorious.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Feb. 24), vs. BUF (Feb. 27), vs. MTL (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 68.97%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Boston experienced last spring how anything can happen once the postseason begins. The key for the Bruins is not to be haunted by the past in their next playoff opportunity.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Feb. 24), @ SEA (Feb. 26), vs. VGK (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 67.80%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Vancouver has shocked the hockey world as this season’s breakout club. Even the current slump shouldn’t hurt their chances of a playoff berth. Vancouver has excelled from top to bottom more often than not, so the real icing on their cake will be racking up series wins in the postseason.
Next seven days: vs. BOS (Feb. 24), vs. PIT (Feb. 27), vs. LA (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 69.30%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. New York has been on such a heater lately — did you see that Stadium Series comeback? — that it’s almost insulting there’s even a 0.3% possibility they don’t get in on postseason action.
Next seven days: @ PHI (Feb. 24), @ CBJ (Feb. 25), vs. CBJ (Feb. 28)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 65.52%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Dallas has a deep team, and that has been its backbone through every challenge faced this season. The Stars will need their resiliency intact to make a long run in the playoffs.
Next seven days: @ CAR (Feb. 24), vs. NYI (Feb. 26), @ COL (Feb. 27), vs. WPG (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 64.66%
Playoff chances: 98.6%. Colorado has battled tough stretches this season. But thanks to Nathan MacKinnon driving the bus at game-changing speed, there’s little chance the Avalanche won’t make playoffs. The question is: What can they do once they get there?
Next seven days: vs. TOR (Feb. 24), vs. DAL (Feb. 27), @ CHI (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 67.59%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Winnipeg will get to the postseason. The true curiosity is how the Jets will fare once they’re in it. Winnipeg has a top-tier goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck and a lineup littered with star power. But have we seen the best of the Jets already? Or are there even greater things to come?
Next seven days: @ CHI (Feb. 23), vs. ARI (Feb. 25), vs. STL (Feb. 27), @ DAL (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 64.15%
Playoff chances: 99.8%. Edmonton already graduated from early-season disappointment to postseason lock. Now the Oilers are among the current favorites to win it all (at 11.9%). That’s a glow-up if ever we’ve seen one.
Next seven days: vs. MIN (Feb. 23), vs. CGY (Feb. 24), vs. (Feb. 26), vs. STL (Feb. 28)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 64.29%
Playoff chances: 97.7%. Toronto can thank Auston Matthews‘ consistently spectacular play this season for basically ensuring they’ll be in good position for the playoffs. Naturally, getting in will mean nothing for the Leafs (or Matthews) if they can’t produce when it counts.
Next seven days: @ COL (Feb. 24), vs. VGK (Feb. 27), vs. ARI (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 65.18%
Playoff chances: 99.9%. Carolina stumbling in uncharacteristic fashion to start the season raised red flags. Turns out, we need not have worried about the Canes. They’ll not only be in the postseason but — with a trade deadline upgrade? — should be among the Eastern Conference favorites.
Next seven days: vs. DAL (Feb. 24), @ BUF (Feb. 25), @ MIN (Feb. 27), @ CBJ (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 61.40%
Playoff chances: 96.7%. Vegas has shown some signs of a lingering Cup hangover. But like every veteran reveler in Sin City, the Golden Knights find ways to rally. Odds are they’ll be in for another fruitful spring ahead.
Next seven days: @ OTT (Feb. 24), @ TOR (Feb. 27), @ BOS (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 60.00%
Playoff chances: 93.5%. Los Angeles is back on the rails after a rough two-win January cost coach Todd McLellan his job. Interim bench boss Jim Hiller has helped right the ship, and the Kings can use their adversity as a rallying point toward postseason success.
Next seven days: vs. ANA (Feb. 24), @ EDM (Feb. 26), @ CGY (Feb. 27), @ VAN (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 58.77%
Playoff chances: 76.8%. Philadelphia being a playoff team was not on the Bingo card this year. The Flyers might also be the team most likely to fall out of the conversation post-trade deadline. For now, though, Philadelphia’s trending in the right direction. Let’s see how far they can go.
Next seven days: vs. NYR (Feb. 24), @ PIT (Feb. 25), vs. TB (Feb. 27)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 58.93%
Playoff chances: 32.9%. Detroit is in position to finally host a playoff game within their stunning, state-of-the-art arena. All that stands in their way is keeping pace with some ultracompetitive Atlantic Division rivals.
Next seven days: vs. STL (Feb. 24), @ CHI (Feb. 25), vs. WSH (Feb. 27), vs. NYI (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 56.03%
Playoff chances: 80.0%. Tampa is in that murky middle of the Eastern Conference where their pendulum could swing either way. Are the Lightning able to hang from here with the Atlantic’s top squads? Are they wild-card material? Or … does Tampa Bay fall out altogether? It’ll be a wild ride from here to find out.
Next seven days: @ NYI (Feb. 24), @ NJ (Feb. 25), @ PHI (Feb. 27), vs. BUF (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 53.57%
Playoff chances: 41.7%. New Jersey was, at this time last year, a veritable lock for the playoffs. Things are different now. The Devils still have runway, but questions around goaltending and defense especially threaten to derail New Jersey, even if they do secure a spot.
Next seven days: vs. MTL (Feb. 24), vs. TB (Feb. 25), @ SJ (Feb. 27)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 53.57%
Playoff chances: 28.7%. New York did enough slipping and sliding already this season to warrant a coaching change (hello, Patrick Roy). Can the Islanders pull it together in time to recapture a wild-card slot? It’ll take more than just continuous star turns from Mathew Barzal to get there.
Next seven days: vs. TB (Feb. 24), @ DAL (Feb. 26), @ DET (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 54.39%
Playoff chances: 32.7%. Nashville is in a fight to grab one of the Western Conference’s wild-card spots. What the Predators do leading up to the trade deadline — will they boost the lineup or deal veterans away? — might tell the tale of where they end up.
Next seven days: @ SJ (Feb. 24), @ ANA (Feb. 25), vs. OTT (Feb. 27), vs. MIN (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 55.36%
Playoff chances: 10.5%. St. Louis’ streakiness has dampened its odds of being a postseason contender. Every winning stretch the Blues craft is seemingly followed by a landslide of losing.
Next seven days: @ DET (Feb. 24), @ WPG (Feb. 27), @ EDM (Feb. 28)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 54.55%
Playoff chances: 17.0%. Washington is on track to miss the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since a three-season dry spell from 2003-04 through 2006-07. Luckily the Capitals have a young team and up-and-coming coach on whom they can pin a brighter future.
Next seven days: @ FLA (Feb. 24), vs. OTT (Feb. 26), @ DET (Feb. 27)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 51.75%
Playoff chances: 26.6%. Calgary had high hopes going into this season that were swiftly damaged by losing 19 of its first 30 games. That’s a mammoth hole to climb out of, and the Flames don’t look poised for a clandestine run from here to the postseason. Trading more roster players ahead of the deadline would signal that the rebuild is officially on.
Next seven days: @ EDM (Feb. 24), vs. LA (Feb. 27)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 53.70%
Playoff chances: 22.9%. Pittsburgh should qualify as the season’s most surprising free fall. Who would have expected the Penguins to have such long postseason odds after they added new GM Kyle Dubas, acquired the likes of Erik Karlsson and Reilly Smith and have gotten MVP-caliber play from Sidney Crosby? Baffling.
Next seven days: vs. PHI (Feb. 25), @ VAN (Feb. 27), @ SEA (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 51.79%
Playoff chances: 20.2%. Minnesota tried salvaging its season with a coaching change. It hasn’t entirely worked yet. The Wild are at risk of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018-19, and that would be a shame for hockey fans hoping to see Marc-Andre Fleury get what might be one last postseason run.
Next seven days: @ EDM (Feb. 23), @ SEA (Feb. 24), vs. CAR (Feb. 27), @ NSH (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 52.68%
Playoff chances: 21.2%. Seattle may just be outmatched by their fellow Western Conference foes. The magic that boosted the Kraken in their sophomore season was lacking in year three. There could be a long summer looming for Seattle to ponder what went wrong.
Next seven days: vs. MIN (Feb. 24), vs. BOS (Feb. 26), vs. PIT (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 48.21%
Playoff chances: 1.6%. Buffalo being at slightly better than 1% odds here is a total, utter disappointment. This season was supposed to change the narrative and show an established, winning culture. Better luck next year?
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Feb. 23), vs. CAR (Feb. 25), @ FLA (Feb. 27), @ TB (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 45.61%
Playoff chances: ~0%. Montreal is somewhere within a cooly calculated rebuild. When will it end for the Canadiens? Only GM Kent Hughes can say for certain.
Next seven days: @ NJ (Feb. 24), vs. ARI (Feb. 27), @ FLA (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 44.64%
Playoff chances: 0.3%. Arizona can’t change their own playoff destiny at this stage. The Coyotes could play spoiler down the stretch though, wielding a lineup filled with budding talents who should make them contenders in seasons ahead.
Next seven days: @ WPG (Feb. 25), @ MTL (Feb. 27), @ TOR (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 47.22%
Playoff chances: 0.8%. Ottawa made adjustments everywhere from its ownership to front office execs to coaching staff. And still the Senators are on the outside looking in. Whatever their elusive winning formula is, it feels out of reach this season.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Feb. 24), @ WSH (Feb. 25), @ NSH (Feb. 27)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 41.82%
Playoff chances: ~0%. Columbus knew long ago when its last game would be this season. But at least they’re only one year away from hosting the next Stadium Series clash at Ohio State. Silver linings!
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Feb. 23), vs. NYR (Feb. 25), @ NYR (Feb. 28), vs. CAR (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 37.50%
Playoff chances: ~0%. Anaheim won’t have to wonder about its postseason odds. Just the draft lottery ones.
Next seven days: @ LA (Feb. 24), vs. NSH (Feb. 25), @ SJ (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 31.82%
Playoff chances: ~0%. San Jose might come first in being officially eliminated from playoff contention. So there’s that.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Feb. 24), vs. NJ (Feb. 27), vs. ANA (Feb. 29)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 28.95%
Playoff chances: ~0%. Chicago has Connor Bedard back on the ice. Eventually, the Blackhawks will have a shot at the playoffs again, too.
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Feb. 23), vs. DET (Feb. 25), vs. COL (Feb. 29)
The San Francisco Giants acquired three-time All-Star Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox on Sunday in a stunning trade that sent a player Boston once considered a franchise cornerstone to a San Francisco team needing an offensive infusion.
Boston received left-handed starter Kyle Harrison, right-hander Jordan Hicks, outfield prospect James Tibbs III and Rookie League right-hander Jose Bello.
The Red Sox announced the deal Sunday evening.
The Giants will cover the remainder of Devers’ contract, which runs through 2033 and will pay him more than $250 million, sources told ESPN.
The trade ends the fractured relationship between Devers and the Red Sox that had degraded since spring training, when Devers balked at moving off third base — the position where he had spent his whole career — after the signing of free agent Alex Bregman. The Red Sox gave no forewarning to Devers, who expressed frustration before relenting and agreeing to be their designated hitter.
After a season-ending injury to first baseman Triston Casas in early May, the Red Sox asked Devers to move to first base. Devers declined, suggesting the front office “should do their jobs” and find another player after the organization told him during spring training he would be the DH for the remainder of the season. The day after Devers’ comments, Red Sox owner John Henry, president Sam Kennedy and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow flew to Kansas City, where Boston was playing, to talk with Devers.
In the weeks since, Devers’ refusal to play first led to internal tension and helped facilitate the deal, sources said.
San Francisco pounced — and added a force to an offense that ranks 15th in runs scored in Major League Baseball. Devers, 28, is hitting .272/.401/.504 with 15 home runs and 58 RBIs, tied for the third most in MLB. Over his nine-year career, Devers is hitting .279/.349/.509 with 215 home runs and 696 RBIs in 1,053 games.
Boston believed enough in Devers to give him a 10-year, $313.5 million contract extension in January 2023. He rewarded the Red Sox with a Silver Slugger Award that season and made his third All-Star team in 2024.
Whether he slots in at designated hitter or first base with San Francisco — the Giants signed Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman to a six-year, $151 million deal last year — is unknown. But San Francisco sought Devers more for his bat, one that immediately makes the Giants — who are fighting for National League West supremacy with the Los Angeles Dodgers — a better team.
To do so, the Giants gave a package of young talent and took on the contract that multiple teams’ models had as underwater.
Harrison, 23, is the prize of the deal, particularly for a Red Sox team replete with young hitting talent but starving for young pitching. Once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Harrison has shuttled between San Francisco and Triple-A Sacramento this season.
Harrison, who was scratched from a planned start against the Dodgers on Sunday night, has a 4.48 ERA over 182⅔ innings since debuting with the Giants in 2023. He has struck out 178, walked 62 and allowed 30 home runs. The Red Sox optioned Harrison to Triple-A Worcester after the trade was announced.
Hicks, 28, who has toggled between starter and reliever since signing with the Giants for four years and $44 million before the 2024 season, is on the injured list because of right toe inflammation. One of the hardest-throwing pitchers in baseball, Hicks has a 6.47 ERA over 48⅔ innings this season. He could join the Red Sox’s ailing bullpen, which Breslow has sought to upgrade.
Tibbs, 22, was selected by the Giants with the 13th pick in last year’s draft out of Florida State. A 6-foot, 200-pound corner outfielder, Tibbs has spent the season at High-A, where he has hit .245/.377/.480 with 12 home runs and 32 RBIs in 56 games. Scouts laud his command of the strike zone — he has 41 walks and 45 strikeouts in 252 plate appearances — but question whether his swing will translate at higher levels.
Bello, 20, has spent the season as a reliever for the Giants’ Rookie League affiliate. In 18 innings, he has struck out 28 and walked three while posting a 2.00 ERA.
The deal is the latest in which Boston shipped a player central to the franchise.
Boston traded Mookie Betts to the Dodgers in February 2020, just more than a year after leading Boston to a franchise-record 108 wins and a World Series title and winning the American League MVP Award.
Devers was part of that World Series-winning team in 2018 and led the Red Sox in RBIs each season from 2020 to 2024, garnering AL MVP votes across each of the past four years. Devers had been with the Red Sox since 2013, when he signed as an international amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic. He debuted four years later at age 20.
Boston is banking on its young talent to replace Devers’ production. The Red Sox regularly play four rookies — infielders Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer, outfielder Roman Anthony and catcher Carlos Narvaez — and infielder Franklin Arias and outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia are expected to contribute in the coming years.
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Alden Gonzalez
Shohei Ohtani will make his long-awaited return to pitching on Monday night in a matchup against the division-rival San Diego Padres, the Los Angeles Dodgers announced.
Ohtani, 21 months removed from a second repair of his ulnar collateral ligament, will be used as an opener, likely throwing one inning. Because of his two-way designation, Ohtani qualifies as an extra pitcher on the roster, giving the Dodgers the flexibility to use a piggyback starter behind him.
That is essentially what will take place in his first handful of starts — a byproduct of the progress Ohtani has made in the late stages of his pitching rehab.
Ohtani, 30, initially seemed to be progressing toward a return some time around August. But he made a major step during his third simulated game from San Diego’s Petco Park on Tuesday, throwing 44 pitches over the course of three simulated innings and compiling six strikeouts against a couple of low-level minor leaguers.
Afterward, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said it was a “north of zero” chance Ohtani could return before the All-Star break. When he met with reporters prior to Sunday’s game against the San Francisco Giants — an eventual 5-4 victory — Roberts said it was a “possibility” Ohtani could pitch after just one more simulated game.
After the game, Roberts indicated the timeline might have been pushed even further, telling reporters it was a “high possibility” Ohtani would pitch in a big league game this week as an opener, likely during the upcoming four-game series against the Padres.
“He’s ready to pitch in a big league game,” Roberts told reporters. “He let us know.”
If you’re just getting back home from your Father’s Day activities, you had better sit down, because Sunday evening’s Boston Red Sox–San Francisco Giants trade is a doozy.
Rafael Devers, second among third basemen and seventh among hitters in fantasy points this season, is headed to the Giants, traded minutes before their game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Boston’s return includes pitchers Kyle Harrison, who was the Giants’ scheduled starting pitcher Sunday night (subsequently scratched), pitcher Jordan Hicks, outfield prospect James Tibbs III and pitching prospect Jose Bello.
Expect Devers to continue to serve in a designated hitter-only capacity with his new team, considering his season-long stance, which is primarily an issue for his position eligibility for 2026. He might factor as the Giants’ future first baseman if given a full offseason to prepare for the shift to a new position — or it could happen sooner if he has a change of heart in his new environment.
As for the impact on Devers’ numbers, the move from Fenway Park to Oracle Park represents one of the steepest downgrades in terms of park factors, specifically run production and extra-base hits. With its close-proximity Green Monster in left field, Fenway Park is a much better environment for doubles and runs scored, Statcast reflecting that it’s 22% and 10% better than league average in those categories, respectively, compared with 8% worse and only 2% above par for Oracle Park.
Devers is a prime-age 28, with a contract averaging a relatively reasonable $31.8 million over the next eight seasons, and he’s leaving a Red Sox team where his defensive positioning — he has played all but six of his career defensive innings at third base — was a manner of much debate, to go to a team that has one of baseball’s best defensive third basemen in Matt Chapman (once he’s healthy following a hand injury). Devers’ unwillingness to play first base probably played a big part in his ultimately being traded, and it’s worth pointing out that one of the positions where the Giants are weakest is, well, also first base.
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Perez: Devers gives Giants a ‘really good offense’
Eduardo Perez, David Cone and Karl Ravech react to the Giants acquiring star 3B Rafael Devers from the Red Sox.
Devers’ raw power is immense, as he has greater than 95th percentile barrel and hard-hit rates this season. He has been in that tier or better in the latter in each of the past three seasons as well. He’s at a 33-homer (and 34 per 162 games) pace since the beginning of 2021, so the slugger should continue to homer at a similar rate regardless of his surroundings. He should easily snap the Giants’ drought of 30-homer hitters, which dates back to Barry Bonds in 2004. Devers’ fantasy value might slip slightly, mostly due to the park’s impact on his runs scored and RBIs, but he’ll remain a top-four fantasy third baseman.
If you play in an NL-only league, Devers is an open-the-wallet free agent target. He’s worth a maximum bid, considering he brings a similar ability to stars you might invest in come the July trade deadline, except in this case you’ll get an extra month and a half’s production.
Harrison is an intriguing pickup for the Red Sox, though in a disappointing development, he was immediately optioned to Triple-A Worcester. A top-25 overall prospect as recently as two years ago, Harrison’s spike in average fastball velocity this season (95.1 mph, up from 92.5) could be a signal of better things ahead. Once recalled to Fenway Park, his fantasy prospects would take a hit, as that’s a venue that isn’t forgiving to fly ball-oriented lefties, but he’d be a matchups option nevertheless.
Expect Hicks to serve in setup relief for his new team, though he’d at best be fourth in the Red Sox’s pecking order for saves.
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