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After disappointing fourth-quarter results, Rivian (RIVN) stock earned a double downgrade, sending share prices to an all-time low. Sitting at its lowest value since going public, the EV maker looks to gain control of costs in 2024.

Q4 earnings miss the mark

After releasing Q4 and full-year earnings results Wednesday, Rivian announced it was laying off 10% of its salaried employees.

Rivian’s CEO RJ Scaringe explained on the company’s media call the move enables them “to maximize the amount of impact we can have as a company.” Scaringe said the company “is not immune to existing economic and geopolitical uncertainties.”

The impact of higher interest rates has rippled across the industry. Rivian’s order bank has “notably reduced” as the EV maker scales output.

Although deliveries more than doubled last year, with over 50,000 vehicles handed over, the pace slowed in Q4.

As CFO Claire McDonough explained in November, Rivian expected “a more significant gap between production and deliveries” with Amazon limiting new vehicle intake during the holidays.

Although Rivian’s net losses improved in the fourth quarter ($1.5B vs $1.7B) from 2022, the EV maker’s gross margins took a hit with lower vehicle deliveries.

Q3 ’22 Q4 ’22 Q1 ’23 Q2 ’23 Q3 ’23 Q4 ’23
Rivian loss per vehicle $139,277 $124,162 $67,329 $32,594 $30,500 $43,372
Rivian loss per vehicle by quarter

Rivian lost $43,372 for every vehicle it delivered in the fourth quarter. Despite improving the number all year, Rivian’s gross profit per vehicle fell from $30,648 in Q3, $32,595 in Q2, and $67,329 in Q1 2023.

Keep in mind, this is still a roughly $81,000 improvement from a year ago when Rivian was losing $124,162 for every EV handed over.

Rivian-stock-all-time-low
Rivian R1T (Source: Rivian)

Rivian stock hits all-time low after downgrade

Rivian’s stock was already trending downward following the Q4 earnings miss, now it’s sitting at an all-time low at roughly $10 a share.

As the company announced in November, it will shut down consumer and commercial production lines for several weeks in Q2. The planned downtime is to introduce new cost savings and technology to the R1 platform.

Rivian expects the changes will “meaningfully reduce” material costs as it exits 2024. With the upgrades, Rivian believes it will achieve a “modest growth profit” in Q4 2024.

Rivian-production
Rivian production at its Normal, Ill facility (Source: Rivian)

Although it’s only planned over a portion of Q2, the upgrades will “impact all four quarters of output,” as McDonough explained. As a result, Rivian expects deliveries to be 10% to 15% lower than in Q4, suggesting around 12K to 12.5K in Q1.

Rivian projects production will remain flat this year, with around 57,000 vehicles made at its Normal, Ill plant.

The EV maker’s future promises were not enough to win over analysts. Rivian stock earned a double-downgrade this week, with UBS and JP Morgan both cutting price targets.

Rivian-stock-all-time-low
Rivian stock chart since November 2021 IPO (Source: TradingView)

Analyst Joseph Spak cut his price target from $24 to $8 per share. The target suggests over 23% downside from its current $10.40 price per share.

Although “we have been optimistic on RIVN’s product and brand ultimately winning out,” Spak said in a note to clients, “a rapidly changing EV backdrop causes us to reassess our demand view.”

Spak noted that Rivian’s path to profitability and cash flow could be harder to achieve. The analyst said UBS’ average annual delivery forecast for 2025 to 2027 is roughly 33% lower than before. Spak also raised concerns about achieving 2024 gross profit and EBITDA targets.

The analyst projects a big cash raise in 2025, potentially around 30% of its market cap. Meanwhile, Spak said strong demand for EVs could boost Rivian’s stock. Spak said improved cost reductions could squash the need for more capital.

JPMorgan also lowered its price target to $11, citing missed targets and disappointing new guidance.

Even Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk chimed in. Musk posted on X (Twitter), saying the “current trajectory has them bankrupt in ~6 quarters. Maybe that trajectory will change, but so far it hasn’t.”

(Source: Elon Musk/ X)

Electrek’s Take

Although there are real concerns with Rivian’s financials and ability to generate a profit, the EV maker is executing a plan to get costs under control.

Rivian’s R1S was the best-selling EV in the US last year, priced over $70,000. The brand was the fifth best-selling EV maker in the US last year. Rivian has a good product and has already established itself as a true luxury EV maker. Now, the company needs to nail the next growth stage.

The company already has upgrades planned to cut costs with its R1 vehicles. On March 7, Rivian will introduce its more affordable R2 electric SUV, which will significantly expand its market.

Rivian will need to either cut costs further or introduce new revenue streams like services, as R2 production is not slated to begin until 2026.

McDonough said Rivian “remains confident” that cash and equivalents can fund operations through 2025.

Source: CNBC

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America – it’s a party now! Plus: an electric Honda Ruckus and updated BMW

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America – it's a party now! Plus: an electric Honda Ruckus and updated BMW

Elon Musk isn’t happy about Trump passing the Big Beautiful Bill and killing off the $7,500 EV tax credit – but there’s a lot more bad news for Tesla baked into the BBB. We’ve got all that and more on today’s budget-busting episode of Quick Charge!

We also present ongoing coverage of the 2025 Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix and dive into some two wheeled reports on the new electric Honda Ruckus e:Zoomer, the latest BMW electric two-wheeler, and more!

Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.

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Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.


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FERC: Solar + wind made up 96% of new US power generating capacity in first third of 2025

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FERC: Solar + wind made up 96% of new US power generating capacity in first third of 2025

Solar and wind accounted for almost 96% of new US electrical generating capacity added in the first third of 2025. In April, solar provided 87% of new capacity, making it the 20th consecutive month solar has taken the lead, according to data belatedly posted on July 1 by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign.

Solar’s new generating capacity in April 2025 and YTD

In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through April 30, 2025), FERC says 50 “units” of solar totaling 2,284 megawatts (MW) were placed into service in April, accounting for 86.7% of all new generating capacity added during the month.

In addition, the 9,451 MW of solar added during the first four months of 2025 was 77.7% of the new generation placed into service.

Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity added each month for 20 consecutive months, from September 2023 to April 2025.

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Solar + wind were >95% of new capacity in 1st third of 2025

Between January and April 2025, new wind provided 2,183 MW of capacity additions, accounting for 18.0% of new additions in the first third.

In the same period, the combination of solar and wind was 95.7% of new capacity while natural gas (511 MW) provided just 4.2%; the remaining 0.1% came from oil (11 MW).

Solar + wind are >22% of US utility-scale generating capacity

The installed capacities of solar (11.0%) and wind (11.8%) are now each more than a tenth of the US total. Together, they make up almost one-fourth (22.8%) of the US’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.

Moreover, at least 25-30% of US solar capacity is in small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that are not reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar + wind to more than a quarter of the US total.

With the inclusion of hydropower (7.7%), biomass (1.1%), and geothermal (0.3%), renewables currently claim a 31.8% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity. If small-scale solar capacity is included, renewables are now about one-third of total US generating capacity.

Solar is on track to become No. 2 source of US generating capacity

FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between May 2025 and April 2028 total 90,158 MW – an amount almost four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (22,793 MW), the second-fastest growing resource. Notably, both three-year projections are higher than those provided just a month earlier.

FERC also foresees net growth for hydropower (596 MW) and geothermal (92 MW) but a decrease of 123 MW in biomass capacity.

Taken together, the net new “high probability” capacity additions by all renewable energy sources over the next three years – i.e., the bulk of the Trump administration’s remaining time in office – would total 113,516 MW.  

FERC doesn’t include any nuclear capacity in its three-year forecast, while coal and oil are projected to contract by 24,373 MW and 1,915 MW, respectively. Natural gas capacity would expand by 5,730 MW.

Thus, adjusting for the different capacity factors of gas (59.7%), wind (34.3%), and utility-scale solar (23.4%), electricity generated by the projected new solar capacity to be added in the coming three years should be at least six times greater than that produced by the new natural gas capacity, while the electrical output by new wind capacity would be more than double that by gas.

If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialize, by May 1, 2028, solar will account for one-sixth (16.6%) of US installed utility-scale generating capacity. Wind would provide an additional one-eighth (12.6%) of the total. That would make each greater than coal (12.2%) and substantially more than nuclear power or hydropower (7.3% and 7.2%, respectively).

In fact, assuming current growth rates continue, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar is likely to surpass that of either coal or wind within two years, placing solar in second place for installed generating capacity, behind only natural gas.

Renewables + small-scale solar may overtake natural gas within 3 years

The mix of all utility-scale (ie, >1 MW) renewables is now adding about two percentage points each year to its share of generating capacity. At that pace, by May 1, 2028, renewables would account for 37.7% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity – rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.1%). Solar and wind would constitute more than three-quarters of installed renewable energy capacity. If those trend lines continue, utility-scale renewable energy capacity should surpass that of natural gas in 2029 or sooner.

However, as noted, FERC’s data do not account for the capacity of small-scale solar systems. If that’s factored in, within three years, total US solar capacity could exceed 300 GW. In turn, the mix of all renewables would then be about 40% of total installed capacity while the share of natural gas would drop to about 38%.

Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 224,426 MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 69,530 MW of new wind, 9,072 MW of new hydropower, 202 MW of new geothermal, and 39 MW of new biomass. By contrast, net new natural gas capacity potentially in the three-year pipeline totals just 26,818 MW. Consequently, renewables’ share could be even greater by mid-spring 2028.

“The Trump Administration’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ … poses a clear threat to solar and wind in the years to come,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “Nonetheless, FERC’s latest data and forecasts suggest cleaner and lower-cost renewable energy sources may still dominate and surpass nuclear power, coal, and natural gas.” 


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Tesla was forced to reimburse Full Self-Driving in arbitration after failing to deliver

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Tesla was forced to reimburse Full Self-Driving in arbitration after failing to deliver

Tesla has been forced to reimburse a customer’s Full Self-Driving package after an arbitrator determined that the automaker failed to deliver it.

Tesla has been promising its car owners that every vehicle it has built since 2016 has all the hardware capable of unsupervised self-driving.

The automaker has been selling a “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package that is supposed to deliver this unsupervised self-driving capability through over-the-air software updates.

Almost a decade later, Tesla has yet to deliver on its promise, and its claim that the cars’ hardware is capable of self-driving has been proven wrong. Tesla had to update all cars with HW2 and 2.5 computers to HW3 computers.

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In January 2025, CEO Elon Musk finally admitted that HW3 also won’t be able to support self-driving and said that Tesla will have to upgrade the computers. 6 months later, Tesla has yet to communicate a plan for retrofits to owners.

Tesla is now attempting to deliver its promise of unsupervised self-driving on HW4 cars, which have been in production since 2023-2024, depending on the model. However, there are still significant doubts about this being possible, as the best available data indicate that Tesla only achieves about 500 miles between critical disengagements with the latest software on the hardware.

The situation is creating a significant liability for Tesla, which already needs to replace computers in millions of vehicles, and it may need to do so in millions more.

On the other hand, many customers are losing faith in Tesla’s ability to deliver on its promise and manage this computer retrofit situation. Some of them have been seeking to be reimbursed for their purchase of the Full Self-Driving package, which Tesla sold from $8,000 to $15,000.

A Tesla owner in Washington managed to get the automaker to reimburse the FSD package, but it wasn’t easy.

The 2021 Model Y was Marc Dobin and his wife’s third Tesla. Due to his wife’s declining mobility, Dobin was intrigued about the FSD package as a potential way to give her more independence. He wrote in a blog post:

But FSD was more than hype for us. The promise of a car that could drive my wife around gave us hope that she’d maintain independence as her motor skills declined. We paid an extra $10,000 for FSD.

Tesla’s FSD quickly disillusioned Dobin. First, he couldn’t even enable it due to Tesla restricting the Beta access through a “safety score” system, something he pointed out was never mentioned in the contract.

Furthermore, the feature required the supervision of a driver at all times, which was not what Tesla sold to customers.

Tesla doesn’t make it easy for customers in the US to seek a refund or to sue Tesla as it forces buyers to go through arbitration through its sales contract.

That didn’t deter Dobin, who happens to be a lawyer with years of experience in arbitration. It took almost a year, but Tesla and Dobin eventually found themselves in arbitration, and it didn’t go well for the automaker:

Almost a year after filing, the evidentiary hearing was held via Zoom. Tesla produced one witness: a Field Technical Specialist who admitted he hadn’t checked what equipment shipped with our car, hadn’t reviewed our driving logs, and didn’t know details about the FSD system installed on our car, if any. He hadn’t spoken to any sales rep we dealt with or reviewed the contract’s integration clause.

There were both a Tesla lawyer and an outside counsel representing Tesla at the hearing, but the witness was not equipped to answer questions.

Dobin wrote:

He was a service technician, not a lawyer or salesperson. But that’s who Tesla brought to the hearing. At the end, I genuinely felt bad for him because Tesla set him up to be a human punching bag—someone unprepared to answer key questions, forced to defend a system he clearly didn’t understand. While I was examining him, a Tesla in-house lawyer sat silently, while the company’s outside counsel tried to soften the blows of the witness’ testimony.

He focused on Tesla’s lack of disclosure regarding the safety score and the fact that the system does not meet the promises made to customers.

The arbitrator sided with Dobin and wrote:

The evidence is persuasive that the feature was not functional, operational, or otherwise available.”

Tesla was forced to reimburse the FSD package $10,000 plus taxes, and pay for the almost $8,000 in arbitration fees.

Since Tesla forces arbitration through its contracts, it is required to cover the cost.

Electrek’s Take

This is interesting. Tesla assigned two lawyers to this case in an attempt to avoid reimbursing $10,000, knowing it would have to cover the expensive arbitration fees – most likely losing tens of thousands of dollars in the process.

It makes no sense to me. Tesla should have a standing offer to reimburse FSD for anyone who requests it until it can actually deliver on its promise of unsupervised self-driving.

That’s the right thing to do, and the fact that Tesla would waste money trying to fight customers requesting a refund is really telling.

Tesla is simply not ready to do the right thing here, and it doesn’t bode well for the computer retrofits and all the other liabilities around Tesla FSD.

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