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After disappointing fourth-quarter results, Rivian (RIVN) stock earned a double downgrade, sending share prices to an all-time low. Sitting at its lowest value since going public, the EV maker looks to gain control of costs in 2024.

Q4 earnings miss the mark

After releasing Q4 and full-year earnings results Wednesday, Rivian announced it was laying off 10% of its salaried employees.

Rivian’s CEO RJ Scaringe explained on the company’s media call the move enables them “to maximize the amount of impact we can have as a company.” Scaringe said the company “is not immune to existing economic and geopolitical uncertainties.”

The impact of higher interest rates has rippled across the industry. Rivian’s order bank has “notably reduced” as the EV maker scales output.

Although deliveries more than doubled last year, with over 50,000 vehicles handed over, the pace slowed in Q4.

As CFO Claire McDonough explained in November, Rivian expected “a more significant gap between production and deliveries” with Amazon limiting new vehicle intake during the holidays.

Although Rivian’s net losses improved in the fourth quarter ($1.5B vs $1.7B) from 2022, the EV maker’s gross margins took a hit with lower vehicle deliveries.

Q3 ’22 Q4 ’22 Q1 ’23 Q2 ’23 Q3 ’23 Q4 ’23
Rivian loss per vehicle $139,277 $124,162 $67,329 $32,594 $30,500 $43,372
Rivian loss per vehicle by quarter

Rivian lost $43,372 for every vehicle it delivered in the fourth quarter. Despite improving the number all year, Rivian’s gross profit per vehicle fell from $30,648 in Q3, $32,595 in Q2, and $67,329 in Q1 2023.

Keep in mind, this is still a roughly $81,000 improvement from a year ago when Rivian was losing $124,162 for every EV handed over.

Rivian-stock-all-time-low
Rivian R1T (Source: Rivian)

Rivian stock hits all-time low after downgrade

Rivian’s stock was already trending downward following the Q4 earnings miss, now it’s sitting at an all-time low at roughly $10 a share.

As the company announced in November, it will shut down consumer and commercial production lines for several weeks in Q2. The planned downtime is to introduce new cost savings and technology to the R1 platform.

Rivian expects the changes will “meaningfully reduce” material costs as it exits 2024. With the upgrades, Rivian believes it will achieve a “modest growth profit” in Q4 2024.

Rivian-production
Rivian production at its Normal, Ill facility (Source: Rivian)

Although it’s only planned over a portion of Q2, the upgrades will “impact all four quarters of output,” as McDonough explained. As a result, Rivian expects deliveries to be 10% to 15% lower than in Q4, suggesting around 12K to 12.5K in Q1.

Rivian projects production will remain flat this year, with around 57,000 vehicles made at its Normal, Ill plant.

The EV maker’s future promises were not enough to win over analysts. Rivian stock earned a double-downgrade this week, with UBS and JP Morgan both cutting price targets.

Rivian-stock-all-time-low
Rivian stock chart since November 2021 IPO (Source: TradingView)

Analyst Joseph Spak cut his price target from $24 to $8 per share. The target suggests over 23% downside from its current $10.40 price per share.

Although “we have been optimistic on RIVN’s product and brand ultimately winning out,” Spak said in a note to clients, “a rapidly changing EV backdrop causes us to reassess our demand view.”

Spak noted that Rivian’s path to profitability and cash flow could be harder to achieve. The analyst said UBS’ average annual delivery forecast for 2025 to 2027 is roughly 33% lower than before. Spak also raised concerns about achieving 2024 gross profit and EBITDA targets.

The analyst projects a big cash raise in 2025, potentially around 30% of its market cap. Meanwhile, Spak said strong demand for EVs could boost Rivian’s stock. Spak said improved cost reductions could squash the need for more capital.

JPMorgan also lowered its price target to $11, citing missed targets and disappointing new guidance.

Even Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk chimed in. Musk posted on X (Twitter), saying the “current trajectory has them bankrupt in ~6 quarters. Maybe that trajectory will change, but so far it hasn’t.”

(Source: Elon Musk/ X)

Electrek’s Take

Although there are real concerns with Rivian’s financials and ability to generate a profit, the EV maker is executing a plan to get costs under control.

Rivian’s R1S was the best-selling EV in the US last year, priced over $70,000. The brand was the fifth best-selling EV maker in the US last year. Rivian has a good product and has already established itself as a true luxury EV maker. Now, the company needs to nail the next growth stage.

The company already has upgrades planned to cut costs with its R1 vehicles. On March 7, Rivian will introduce its more affordable R2 electric SUV, which will significantly expand its market.

Rivian will need to either cut costs further or introduce new revenue streams like services, as R2 production is not slated to begin until 2026.

McDonough said Rivian “remains confident” that cash and equivalents can fund operations through 2025.

Source: CNBC

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BP shares jump 5% as activist investor Elliott discloses stake build

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BP shares jump 5% as activist investor Elliott discloses stake build

The BP logo is displayed outside a petrol station that also offers electric vehicle recharging, on Feb. 27, 2025, in Somerset, England.

Anna Barclay | Getty Images News | Getty Images

BP shares jumped on Wednesday after activist investor Elliott went public with a stake of more than 5% in the struggling British oil major, which has pivoted back to oil in a bid to restore investor confidence.

BP shares were last seen up 4.75% at 9:44 a.m. London time. The London-listed stock price is down around 5% year-to-date.

Hedge fund Elliott Management has built its holding in the British oil major to 5.006%, according to a regulatory filing disclosed late Tuesday. BP’s other large shareholders include BlackRock, Vanguard and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund.

Elliott was first reported to have assumed a position in the oil and gas company back in February, driving a share rally amid expectations that its involvement could pressure BP to shift gears from its green strategy and back toward its core oil and gas businesses.

Within weeks, BP, which has been lagging domestic peer Shell and transatlantic rivals and posted a steep drop in fourth-quarter profit, announced plans to ramp up fossil fuel investments to $10 billion through 2027. This marked a sharp strategic departure for the company, which five years ago became one of the first energy giants to announce plans to cut emissions to net zero “by 2050 or sooner.” As part of that push, the company pledged to slash emissions by up to 40% by 2030 and to ramp up investment in renewables projects.

The oil major scaled back this emissions target to 20% to 30% in February 2023, saying at the time that it needed to keep investing in oil and gas to meet global demand.

Since switching gears, BP’s CEO Murray Auchincloss and outgoing Chair Helge Lund — who is expected to depart the company in 2026 — retained their posts but were penalized with reduced support during BP’s board re-election vote earlier this month amid pressure from both revenue and climate-focused investors.

BP 'never really tried' to become a clean energy company, says climate activist investor

BP’s strategic reset back to the company’s oil and gas activities took place just as crude prices began to plunge amid volatility triggered by U.S. tariffs and Washington’s trade spat with China, the world’s largest crude importer.

Energy analysts have broadly welcomed the strategic reset, and BP CEO Murray Auchincloss has since said the pivot attracted “significant interest” in the firm’s non-core assets.

The energy firm nevertheless remains firmly in the spotlight as a potential takeover target, with the likes of Shell and U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron touted as possible suitors.

BP is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on Tuesday. The company has said it anticipates lower reported upstream production and higher net debt in the first quarter than in the final three months of 2024.

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Musk complains about handouts when Tesla was only profitable due to credits

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Musk complains about handouts when Tesla was only profitable due to credits

Tesla’s earnings report dropped today, and news isn’t great. But instead of recognizing his failures that have led to Tesla’s downturn, CEO Elon Musk lashed out with conspiracy theories while also hypocritically failing to acknowledge that his company was only profitable this quarter due to regulatory credits.

The numbers are in on Tesla’s dismal quarter, with sales, profits and margins tanking significantly for the company despite a rising global EV market.

You’d expect a drop in car sales to be top of mind for a car company, but instead of talking about this, CEO Elon Musk opened the call by talking about his ineffective advisory role to a former reality TV host.

Musk is heading up the self-styled “Department of Government Efficiency,” an advisory group that is focused on reducing redundancy in government. The office is not an actual government department and has a redundant mission to the Government Accountability Office, which is an actual government department focused on reducing government waste.

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Musk originally claimed that the department would be able to save $2 trillion for the US government, which is actually impossible because federal discretionary spending is $1.7 trillion, which is a (gets out abacus) smaller number than $2 trillion.

He has, of course, failed at this task that anyone with any level of competence would have known was impossible before setting it out for themselves, and now projects that the department will save $150 billion next year, less than a tenth of his original estimate. But even that projection is likely an overstatement, given that most of the supposed savings that DOGE has found are not actual savings at all.

On top of this, the US government’s deficit has grown to the second-highest level on record – with the first happening in 2020, the last time Mr. Trump squatted in the White House. Which means the government isn’t saving money, it is in fact borrowing and spending more of it than ever before.

So, Musk’s tenure in the advisory board has been an unmitigated failure by any realistic account.

But if you listened to Tesla’s call, you wouldn’t have known this, as Musk was quite boastful of his efforts – starting a Tesla conference call with an irrelevant rant about his fake government department, instead of with Tesla business.

He claimed that he has made “a lot of progress in addressing waste and fraud” and that the job is “mostly done,” which is not correct by his own metrics. Musk stated that his purpose is “trying to bring in the insane deficit that is leading our country, the United States, to destruction,” and as we covered above, that deficit has only increased.

But he also went on to spew some rather insane conspiracy theories about the reasons behind his company’s recent failures, all of which of course put the blame on someone else, rather than himself. The buck stops anywhere but here, I guess.

His primary assertion was that the “blowback from the time I’ve been spending in government” (which, again, is an advisory role, not an actual government position) has come mainly from protesters that were “receiving fraudulent money” and are now angry that the government money spigot has been turned off.

Which, of course, he’s provided no evidence for… and he’s provided no evidence for it because it’s false.

Besides, that’s not how protests work. But incorrect claims that protests do work that way are often used by opponents of free speech, with the motivation of putting a chilling effect public participation. Fitting behavior for an enemy of the First Amendment like Elon Musk.

Meanwhile, this assertion also comes from a person who tried and failed to bribe voters to win an election. Perhaps his admiration of Tesla protesters is aspirational – he wishes his ideas were good enough to inspire that sort of grassroots political effort that money, demonstrably, cannot buy.

But this hypocrisy extends beyond Musk’s hatred of free expression, and strikes at the heart of the business he is the titular leader of, Tesla, the organization that has made him into the richest man in the world. Because not only is it not true that Tesla protests are driven by his ineffective government actions (they are, in fact, driven by him doing Nazi stuff all the time), it’s also objectively true that Musk’s companies are a large recipient of government money.

And that’s particularly relevant today, to the very earnings call where Musk made his ridiculous assertion, because in Q1 2025, Tesla only turned a profit due to government credits. Without them, it would have lost money.

Tesla only profitable in Q1 due to regulatory credits

Per today’s earnings report, Tesla earned $595 million in regulatory credits in Q1. But its total net income for the quarter was $409 million.

This means that without those regulatory credits, Tesla would have posted a -$189 million loss in Q1. It was saved not just by credit sales, but credit sales which increased year over year – in the year-ago quarter, Tesla made $442 million in regulatory credits, despite having higher sales in Q1 2024 than in Q1 2025. So not only were credits higher, but credits per vehicle were higher.

This is a common feature of Tesla earnings, and we even said in our earnings preview that we expected it. While Tesla had a bad quarter, nobody expected it to become actually unprofitable, because there was always the possibility of increasing regulatory credit sales to eke out a profitable quarter.

And this has been the case many times in Tesla’s past, as well. In earlier times, Tesla’s first few profitable quarters were decried by the company’s opponents as an accounting trick, suggesting that regulatory credit sales weren’t “real” profits, and that the cars should have to stand on their own.

This is a silly thing to say – businesses do business in the environment that exists, and every business has an incentive structure that includes subsidies and externalities. If we were to selectively write off certain profits for certain businesses, we could make a tortured case that any business isn’t profitable.

Plus, these opponents didn’t extend the same treatment to the oil industry, which is subsidized to the tune of $760 billion per year in the US alone in unpriced externalities, yet that is somehow never mentioned during their earnings calls.

Musk has even claimed, probably correctly, that if all subsidies were eliminated both for EVs and for oil & gas, that EVs would come out ahead compared to the status quo (more recently, Musk has become one of the biggest funders of anti-EV forces, allying himself with a bought-and-paid oil stooge who is giving even more preferential treatment to the oil industry).

But, setting aside the debate over whether credits are valid profits (they are), for years now we’ve been well beyond Tesla’s reliance on credits. The company has produced significant profits, regardless of credit sales, for some time now.

At least, until today. That’s no longer true – Tesla did rely on credits to become profitable in Q1. And Musk starting the call with a ridiculous rant about government handouts not only shows his hypocrisy and projection on this matter, but his detachment from reality itself. He is, truly, too stuck in the impenetrable echo chamber of his self-congratulating twitter feed to realize what an embarrassment he’s being in public – to the point of inventing shadow enemies to explain the very real, very simple explanation that people aren’t buying his company’s cars because he sucks so much.


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Commercial financing for EVs is way different than you think | Quick Charge

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Commercial financing for EVs is way different than you think | Quick Charge

No matter how badly a fleet wants to electrify their operations and take advantage of reduced fuel costs and TCO, the fact remains that there are substantial up-front obstacles to commercial EV adoption … or are there? We’ve got fleet financing expert Guy O’Brien here to help walk us through it on today’s fiscally responsible episode of Quick Charge!

This conversation was motivated by the recent uncertainty surrounding EVs and EV infrastructure at the Federal level, and how that turmoil is leading some to believe they should wait to electrify. The truth? There’s never been a better time to make the switch!

Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.

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Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.


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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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