The reduction in the Ofgem price cap that will apply from April may be the final step on the long, ruinously expensive road to a new normal for consumer energy prices.
The guide price for typical annual dual-tariff use of £1,690 – a fall of 12.3% from the previous cap – is a dramatic reduction from the peak of more than £4,000 that applied just a year ago and prompted multi-billion pound state support for every household in the country.
After bouncing between £1,800 and just shy of £2,000 in the three quarters since last June, this reduction, taken with projections of a further drop to around £1,500 in three months, could represent the floor for post-Ukraine invasion prices.
To be clear, a price that’s still considerably higher than the £993 we expected to pay in the winter of 2020-21 represents a dramatic, material and permanent increase in the cost of living, and a return to that level is unlikely as long as Russia is a global pariah at war.
Energy markets may look becalmed but volatility is in their nature.
A warm, wet winter helped UK domestic gas demand fall 16% in 2023 compared to the pre-war average, but the weather has flattered UK energy security.
Much of the flow of gas from Russia has been replaced by liquid natural gas from Australia, the US and Qatar, and pipelines from Norway, all ostensibly friendlier nations, but the UK remains exposed to the kindness of strangers to heat homes and fire power stations.
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The long-term answer is low-carbon and renewable energy sources, but while Vladimir Putin has provided the clearest motivation yet to accelerate, the transition has become significantly more expensive than anticipated.
The offshore wind industry in particular has had a brutal year with supply chain resources finite and finance, like power, no longer cheap.
For consumers, however, this lull may signal the return of a functioning competitive market among suppliers.
Since Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine the Ofgem figure has been a cap in name only.
In practice, it’s been a universally applied maximum charge, with the taxpayer picking up the balance of every pound over £2,500.
Lower wholesale prices, helped by the caprice of a mild winter, mean suppliers may have to work a little harder for your custom.
British Gas is already offering a fixed price guaranteed at £1 below the April price cap, while E.On is offering a 3% discount on the cap for a year.
Not much compared to the wild (and entirely unsustainable market) that existed before the war, but it is a start.
More than billpayers welcoming the fall
The reduction will be welcome at the Treasury too. Having set the precedent of paying our energy bills and allowing the national debt to balloon close to 100% of GDP in the process, there is no appetite to return to feeding the national meter.
With the cap now around half the more than £3,100 that applied in April last year there will be downward pressure on inflation too, though don’t expect the Bank of England to rush to cut rates as a consequence.
The biggest annual reduction in bills was factored into the figures for last October, helping drag CPI down from its 11% peak, and the Bank of England is already looking ahead to when the gravitational pull of energy prices falls out of the figures and secondary factors start to drive the headline rate.
There may also now be space for Ofgem and ministers, election permitting, to examine some of the remaining obvious flaws in the domestic market.
Electricity remains almost four times more expensive per unit than gas thanks to green taxes, despite gas being the fuel we need to remove from the network if net zero and energy security are genuine goals.
If the government is serious about incentivising the decarbonisation of home heating with heat pumps – an open question – these running costs will have to be addressed alongside installation grants.
And standing charges remain a regressive charge for billpayers, with electricity costing more than £3.50 a week before you have turned a light on, though the new cap makes that a slightly less terrifying prospect than a year ago.
A man has been charged – alongside five other men – with carrying out sexual offences against his now former wife over a 13-year period.
Philip Young, 49, formerly of Swindon, has been charged with 56 sexual offences, including multiple counts of rape, against Joanne Young, 48, Wiltshire Police said.
He is also charged with administering a substance with the intent to stupefy or overpower to allow sexual activity, as well as voyeurism, possession of indecent images of children and possession of extreme images.
Five other men have also been charged with sexual offences against Ms Young and will appear in court tomorrow, Wiltshire Police said.
Image: Swindon Magistrates’ Court. Pic: Google Street View
They are Norman Macksoni, 47, of Sharnbrook. He is a black British national and has been charged with one count of rape and possession of extreme images.
Dean Hamilton, 47, of no fixed abode. He is a white British national and has been charged with one count of rape and sexual assault by penetration and two counts of sexual touching.
Conner Sanderson Doyle, 31, of Swindon. He is a white British national and has been charged with sexual assault by penetration and sexual touching
Richard Wilkins, 61, of Swindon. He is a white British national and has been charged with one count of rape and sexual touching
Mohammed Hassan, 37, of Swindon. He is a British Asian male and has been charged with sexual touching.
Police say the offences took place between 2010 and 2023.
Geoff Smith, detective superintendent for Wiltshire Police, said: “This is a significant update in what is a complex and extensive investigation.
“The victim in this case, Joanne, has taken the decision to waive her automatic legal right to anonymity.
“She has been supported by specially trained officers from the beginning of the process and she has made the decision following multiple discussions with officers and support services.”
People who allege they are victims of rape have been automatically entitled to lifelong anonymity since the Sexual Offences (Amendment) Act was passed in 1976.
This has since been extended to certain other sexual offences, though victims can waive the protection if they wish.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
A major incident had been declared in Shropshire after a sinkhole breached a canal in the Chemistry area of Whitchurch.
Fire Control received reports at 4.22am that a canal bank had collapsed with large volumes of water escaping into the surrounding land.
Firefighters had to use barge boards and water gates to mitigate water flow to establish upstream and downstream safety sectors.
Image: Pic: Shropshire Fire and Rescue Service
Image: Sinkhole in Shropshire
Three narrowboats have been affected by the incident, with at least two swallowed by the sinkhole, which is approximately 50m by 50m in size.
There are currently no reports of any casualties, but around a dozen residents have been evacuated from nearby moored boats and are being relocated to a welfare centre at the former Whitchurch Police Station.
An area of land next to the canal has been flooded as a result of the breach.
Emergency services are currently on the scene, and a multi-agency response has been set up, co-ordinated through the Shropshire Tactical Co-ordination Group (TCG).
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Image: Pic: Shropshire Fire and Rescue Service
Image: Sinkhole in Shropshire
Shropshire Fire and Rescue Service said on X: “Shropshire FRS is responding to a landslip affecting the canal in the Whitchurch area.
“For everyone’s safety, members of the public are kindly asked to remain away from the affected area, including Whitchurch Marina, while crews and partners manage the incident.”
Puppy farms, trail hunting and snare traps are all set to be banned under animal welfare reforms being introduced by the government.
Ministers have today unveiled the government’s Animal Welfare Strategy, which also takes aim at other measures seen as cruel, such as shock collars, as well as cages and crates for farm animals.
But while proposals to improve animals’ lives have been welcomed, Labour have been accused of acting like “authoritarian control freaks” for plans to ban trail hunting by 2029.
This is the practice that sees an animal scent laid through the countryside, which then allows riders and dogs to ‘hunt’ the smell.
Labour banned fox hunting outright in 2004, but Sir Keir Starmer’s government has suggested trail hunting is now “being used as a smokescreen for hunting” foxes.
Announcing the reforms, Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds said: “This government is delivering the most ambitious animal welfare strategy in a generation.
“Our strategy will raise welfare standards for animals in the home, on the farm and in the wild.”
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Image: Emma Reynolds has said the UK is a “nation of animal lovers”.
Pic: PA
Under the proposals, puppy farms – large-scale sites where dogs are bred intensively – will be banned.
This is because these farms can see breeding dogs kept in “appalling conditions” and “denied proper care”, resulting in “long-term health issues”, according to the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).
The strategy has also launched a consultation on banning shock collars, which use electricity to sting pets and prevent them from escaping.
Other proposals include introducing new licences for rescue and rehoming organisations, promoting “responsible” dog ownership and bringing in new restrictions for farms to improve animal welfare.
These will see bans on “confinement systems” such as colony cages for hens and pig-farrowing crates, while requirements will be brought in to spare farmed fish “avoidable pain”.
The use of carbon dioxide to stun pigs will also be addressed, while farmers will be encouraged to choose to rear slower-growing meat chicken breeds.
In order to protect wild animals, snare traps will be banned alongside trail hunting, while restrictions on when hares can be shot will be introduced.
Image: Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has said the government “might as well ban walking dogs in the countryside”.
Pic: PA
The reforms have been publicly welcomed by multiple animal charities, including the RSPCA, Dogs Trust, Battersea Dogs and Cats Home, and World Farming UK, as well as by the supermarket Waitrose.
Thomas Schultz-Jagow, from the RSPCA, called the proposals a “significant step forward” and said they have the potential to improve millions of lives.
He added: “People in the UK love animals, and they want to see governments leading the way to outlaw cruel practices which cause suffering. This strategy leads the way by showing a strong commitment to animal welfare.”
Meanwhile, the Greens have also welcomed it but warned the strategy must have “real teeth”, “clear timescales” and “properly support farmers through the transition and not allow imports that don’t meet UK standards”.
Adrian Ramsay said: “Puppy legislation must end breeding for extreme, unhealthy traits in dogs. The strategy could go further for animals, particularly by ending greyhound racing, as the Welsh Government is doing.”
But the Conservatives have hit out at the strategy, saying it shows Labour “simply doesn’t care about rural Britain”.
Victoria Atkins, the shadow environment secretary, said: “While it is good to see the government taking forward Conservative policies to tackle puppy smuggling and livestock worrying, Labour is yet again favouring foreign farmers over British farmers by allowing substandard foreign imports to undercut our already-high welfare standards.”
She also accused Labour of announcing the strategy on the Monday before Christmas “to avoid scrutiny” as “they know that this will be another hammer blow to farming profitability”.
Hundreds of tractors are heading to Westminster to protest over changes to inheritance tax rules.
Challenged on whether the government will make meat import standards the same as those for UK farmers, a spokesperson for the PM said: “We will always consider whether overseas products have an unfair advantage, and we are prepared to use the full range of powers of disposal to ensure produce made here in the UK by our farmers is always the most viable option.
“The farming road map due in 2026 will set out our long-term vision.”
They pointed to the 57 recommendations put forward by former NFU boss Baroness Minette Batters last week, following the completion of the Farm Profitability Review. The spokesperson said that ministers are “considering them carefully”.
‘The Met have scored an own goal here and created carnage… we need to exercise our right to protest,’ said organiser Dan Willis.
But responding to the strategy, Nigel Farage said: “So now Labour wants to ban trail hunting. You might as well ban walking dogs in the countryside as they chase rabbits, hares, deer and foxes. Labour are authoritarian control freaks.”
Meanwhile, the Countryside Alliance, an organisation that promotes rural sport, said: “Why does the government want a war with the countryside?
“Trail hunting supports hundreds of jobs and is central to many rural communities. After its attack on family farms, the government should be focusing on addressing issues that actually help rural communities thrive, rather than pursuing divisive policies that hinder them.”