Why the energy price cap has come down for April – to what could be a new normal after Russia’s Ukraine invasion

Published

2 years ago

February 23, 2024

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The reduction in the Ofgem price cap that will apply from April may be the final step on the long, ruinously expensive road to a new normal for consumer energy prices.

The guide price for typical annual dual-tariff use of £1,690 – a fall of 12.3% from the previous cap – is a dramatic reduction from the peak of more than £4,000 that applied just a year ago and prompted multi-billion pound state support for every household in the country.

After bouncing between £1,800 and just shy of £2,000 in the three quarters since last June, this reduction, taken with projections of a further drop to around £1,500 in three months, could represent the floor for post-Ukraine invasion prices.

To be clear, a price that’s still considerably higher than the £993 we expected to pay in the winter of 2020-21 represents a dramatic, material and permanent increase in the cost of living, and a return to that level is unlikely as long as Russia is a global pariah at war.

Energy markets may look becalmed but volatility is in their nature.

Energy price volatility temporarily subsides

A warm, wet winter helped UK domestic gas demand fall 16% in 2023 compared to the pre-war average, but the weather has flattered UK energy security.

Much of the flow of gas from Russia has been replaced by liquid natural gas from Australia, the US and Qatar, and pipelines from Norway, all ostensibly friendlier nations, but the UK remains exposed to the kindness of strangers to heat homes and fire power stations.

The long-term answer is low-carbon and renewable energy sources, but while Vladimir Putin has provided the clearest motivation yet to accelerate, the transition has become significantly more expensive than anticipated.

The offshore wind industry in particular has had a brutal year with supply chain resources finite and finance, like power, no longer cheap.

For consumers, however, this lull may signal the return of a functioning competitive market among suppliers.

Since Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine the Ofgem figure has been a cap in name only.

In practice, it’s been a universally applied maximum charge, with the taxpayer picking up the balance of every pound over £2,500.

Lower wholesale prices, helped by the caprice of a mild winter, mean suppliers may have to work a little harder for your custom.

British Gas is already offering a fixed price guaranteed at £1 below the April price cap, while E.On is offering a 3% discount on the cap for a year.

Not much compared to the wild (and entirely unsustainable market) that existed before the war, but it is a start.

More than billpayers welcoming the fall

The reduction will be welcome at the Treasury too. Having set the precedent of paying our energy bills and allowing the national debt to balloon close to 100% of GDP in the process, there is no appetite to return to feeding the national meter.

With the cap now around half the more than £3,100 that applied in April last year there will be downward pressure on inflation too, though don’t expect the Bank of England to rush to cut rates as a consequence.

The biggest annual reduction in bills was factored into the figures for last October, helping drag CPI down from its 11% peak, and the Bank of England is already looking ahead to when the gravitational pull of energy prices falls out of the figures and secondary factors start to drive the headline rate.

There may also now be space for Ofgem and ministers, election permitting, to examine some of the remaining obvious flaws in the domestic market.

Electricity remains almost four times more expensive per unit than gas thanks to green taxes, despite gas being the fuel we need to remove from the network if net zero and energy security are genuine goals.

If the government is serious about incentivising the decarbonisation of home heating with heat pumps – an open question – these running costs will have to be addressed alongside installation grants.

And standing charges remain a regressive charge for billpayers, with electricity costing more than £3.50 a week before you have turned a light on, though the new cap makes that a slightly less terrifying prospect than a year ago.

UK

The links between Jeffrey Epstein and the UK revealed in new files

Published

13 hours ago

December 20, 2025

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The links between Jeffrey Epstein and the UK revealed in new files

Jeffrey Epstein led two different lives – sex offender and celebrity networker – and he did that in the UK as well as the US.

The newly released Epstein documents reveal, in particular, how the paedophile financier ascended into the highest levels of British society.

This photo of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor sprawled across the lap of several women, whose identities have been protected, speaks to his close relationship with Epstein’s former girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell, who was jailed for child sex trafficking and other offences in connection with Epstein. But the furnishings are even more revealing.

Epstein files – latest updates

Sky News matched the fireplace in this photo with the one in Sandringham, the estate where the royals tend to spend Christmas – (Andrew is not invited this year).

Andrew has vigorously denied any accusations against him.

Also included in the latest release are Epstein’s flight records. They provide some useful corroborating evidence.

On 9 March 2001, his plane landed at “EGGW” – Luton Airport – with JE, GM and VR on board – Jeffrey Epstein, Ghislaine Maxwell and Virginia Roberts, better known by her married name of Virginia Giuffre and perhaps Epstein’s most famous accuser.

The next day is when this photo was alleged to have been taken, in London, of Giuffre and Andrew.

Other photos show Maxwell on the steps of Downing Street – and power was as much a draw as celebrity.

On 15 May 2002, the flight records show Epstein again arriving at Luton.

The next day is when he met Tony Blair, prime minister at the time. This was before Epstein’s first arrest and there is no suggestion of wrongdoing.

The meeting was arranged by Peter Mandelson, who lost his job as ambassador to the US because of his Epstein connections, and who features prominently in the files.

The UK was a draw for Epstein’s wider circle too – Maxwell here is pictured touring the Churchill War Rooms with Bill Clinton and Kevin Spacey. Neither are accused of wrongdoing or knowledge of Epstein’s crimes.

And the other grim life that Epstein led, of sex trafficking, also had British links.

Another document released in the files, from 2019, shows witness testimony from Maxwell’s trial. In it, a victim is mentioned who is “17 years old” and who grew up “in England”. She would later be taken to Epstein’s private Caribbean island.

UK

Murder investigation launched after man shot dead in London

Published

13 hours ago

December 20, 2025

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Murder investigation launched after man shot dead in London

Police have launched a murder investigation after a 55-year-old man was shot dead in London.

Officers were called at 9.35pm on Friday 19 December to reports of a shooting in West End Close, Brent.

Emergency first aid was given to a 55-year-old man, who died at the scene.

Detective Chief Inspector Neil John, from the Met’s Specialist Crime Team, who is leading the investigation, said: “Firstly, our thoughts are with the family and friends of the victim at this incredibly difficult time.

“Enquiries are well under way, and my team is working at pace to determine the circumstances that led to this man’s tragic death.

“There’s no doubt this incident will cause concern in the local community and more widely, but we have increased patrols in the area. I’d like to reassure the public that our investigation remains a priority.

“I would urge anyone who may have witnessed the incident or has information, including dashcam footage, that will assist us with our enquiries to contact us at the earliest opportunity.

“We also believe there was a large group of people congregated nearby at the time the incident happened, and we are keen to hear from them.”

At the early stage of the investigation, no arrests have been made.

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UK

£20,000 reward announced over fatal shooting of father

Published

13 hours ago

December 20, 2025

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£20,000 reward announced over fatal shooting of father

Police have announced a £20,000 reward in the hunt for the killers of a man in north London in March.

Mahad Abdi Mohamed, 27, died after being shot in the head in Waverley Road, Tottenham at 8.45pm on 20 March, the Metropolitan Police said.

The Met, which announced the reward from the independent charity Crimestoppers, said officers believed the shooting was a case of mistaken identity.

Police now want to speak to two people in connection with the incident.

DCI Rebecca Woodsford, who is leading the investigation, said: “There is someone out there who knows what happened that night, and we are urging those individuals to find it in their heart to come forward. It could be exactly what we need to locate those responsible.”

A targeted attack

Police believe the suspects, who got out of a stolen Mitsubishi Outlander, which was later recovered burned out, were taking part in a targeted attack.

On the night of the murder, Mahad had spent the early evening with his friend at their home.

They were breaking their fast outside when the Mitsubishi Outlander approached and the suspects opened fire, striking Mahad and his friend multiple times.

Mahad’s 26-year-old friend received treatment for a gunshot wound to his leg.

The force suspects another stolen vehicle, a blue Jaguar, was used to transport the suspects to and from the Mitsubishi.

Police arrested four adult men in March and April on suspicion of murder, who were subsequently bailed.

The investigation so far has led officers to believe whoever killed Mahad set out to hurt someone else in a pre-planned, targeted attack.

Appealing to the public for information, Mahad’s youngest sister said: “To stay silent is to be complicit. To stay silent is to let a grieving mother suffer in confusion. To stay silent is to let a little boy grow up not knowing what happened to his father.”

The reward, which is offered for information that leads to the identification, arrest and prosecution of those responsible, is available for three months and is due to expire on 20 March 2026.