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The second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine comes as America prepares for a crucial election and while funding for a Ukrainian victory remains blocked in a divided Congress.

As our own frontline eyewitness reporting shows, Vladimir Putin has the upper hand.

Western leaders have repeatedly warned that Putin won’t stop at Ukraine given the chance. We are reminded that even on the eve of his invasion two years ago, Putin insisted he would not move into Ukraine.

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin ‘may achieve war goal’

So what might happen in the months and years ahead?

Here are two scenarios. Far-fetched? It depends if the rhetoric is accurate.

Scenario one:

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It’s March 2025 and a few weeks since Donald Trump was inaugurated as America’s 47th president.

Donald Trump
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Donald Trump

Air Force One has just touched down in Istanbul where Turkey is hosting the ‘Donbas Peace Summit’ where an agreement will be signed by Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy.

At the Topkapi Palace overlooking the Bosporus River, the stage is set for a Trump-brokered ‘peace’ treaty.

The treaty comes three months after Ukraine’s weapon supply ran completely dry following an American refusal to pass funding bills and a breakdown in European unity.

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Latvia: Conscription could help NATO

This Istanbul moment is the delivery of President Trump’s campaign pledge to ‘solve the Ukraine war in a day’.

It had taken longer than a day but Zelenskyy had been cornered through a lack of Western weapons.

Closed-door meetings between Trump administration officials and the Kremlin (the contents of which have not been revealed) sealed the deal: Ukraine agreed to cede the whole of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine to an expanded Russian Federation.

Inside the Topkapi Palace, Zelenskyy first took to the stage, stony-faced and wearing a suit rather than his army fatigues for the first time since the Russian invasion three years earlier.

He signed the document and left the room without acknowledging President Trump who was presiding over the moment.

(Pic: Reuters)
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(Pic: Reuters)

Minutes later, separately, a beaming President Putin emerged, signed the document and shook the American president’s hand.

Three years later in the spring of 2028, the Russian army which had been massing on Europe’s eastern flank invaded Latvia and Estonia.

The two European nations fell fast.

NATO, abandoned by Trump’s America a year earlier, was unable to defend them.

By the summer of 2029, Chinese President Xi Jinping launches an air and maritime invasion of Taiwan.

Read more from Sky News:
Who is Alexei Navalny’s wife Yulia?
Donald Trump breaks silence on Alexei Navalny’s death

What remains of Russian opposition?

Scenario two:

March 2025. Air Force One landed at Kyiv international airport. Joe Biden, recently re-elected as America’s President, descended the steps of the plane with a rare spring in his careful step.

President Joe Biden speaks about his meeting with Alexei Navalny's widow Yulia Navalnaya and daughter Dasha, in San Francisco, Feb. 22, 2024. The U.S. government is hitting Russia with the largest tranche of financial penalties imposed on Moscow since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. They target roughly 600 people and firms from Russia to China to the United Arab Emirates. The sanctions are timed to the second anniversary of the invasion, and in response to the death of Navalny. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)
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(Pic: AP)

On the tarmac, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, in a suit, embraced him. Some observers said they could see tears in his eyes.

A week earlier, Russian President Putin had withdrawn the last of his forces from eastern Ukraine after a bitter winter battle in which an estimated 40,000 soldiers on both sides had been killed.

Putin’s army had been decimated after a massive increase of weapons from Europe and the United States.

The consequence of a war which had lasted three years was the near-total degradation of the Russian military.

It had been compounded by a surprise thaw in US-China relations and Beijing’s subsequent abandonment of Moscow.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (not pictured) during the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany February 17, 2024. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/Pool TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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(Pic: Reuters)

A dramatic shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East also helped to seal Russia’s fate.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s resignation and subsequent conviction in the 7 October Inquiry of September 2024 had paved the way for the Israeli-Saudi normalisation deal.

This isolated Iran and dented Tehran’s relations with Moscow.

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Ukraine needs ‘2.5 million shells’

Far-fetched then? Quite possibly. Donald Trump’s first presidency showed that his fickle unpredictability often cancelled out his wild rhetoric.

And a second Biden term is full of profound unknowns. Republican or Democrat, America appears far less engaged than it once was.

In a world of such discombobulating flux, and where global geopolitics is all inextricably linked, don’t rule anything out.

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Washington DC shooting: Trump condemns ‘monstrous’ attack near White House – and says suspect is Afghan national

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Washington DC shooting: Trump condemns 'monstrous' attack near White House - and says suspect is Afghan national

Donald Trump has called for every Afghan national who entered the US under the Biden administration to be investigated following the shooting of two National Guard troops near the White House.

The president said the “monstrous, ambush-style attack” was carried out by an Afghan national who arrived in September 2021 during America’s chaotic withdrawal from Kabul.

“This attack underscores the single greatest national security threat facing our nation,” Mr Trump said in an address to the nation from Florida.

He vowed to “reexamine every single alien” who has entered the US from Afghanistan under the previous government, and said: “I am determined to ensure the animal who perpetrated this atrocity will pay the steepest possible price.”

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Trump condemns ‘animal’ shooting suspect

Suspect to face terror probe

America’s citizenship and immigration office said it had stopped processing all immigration requests relating to Afghan nationals indefinitely.

Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, reports the suspect in custody is 29-year-old Rahmanullah Lakanwal.

Both guardsmen were shot in the head, according to NBC, citing senior officials briefed on the investigation.

Wednesday’s shooting – carried out with a handgun – will be investigated by the FBI as a possible act of terror.

The White House was placed into lockdown following the incident, while Mr Trump is away for Thanksgiving.

Pics: AP
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Pics: AP

Victims in ‘critical condition’

West Virginia’s governor initially said both victims were members of his state’s National Guard and had died from their injuries – but later posted to say there were “conflicting reports about the condition of our two Guard members”.

Patrick Morrisey had said: “These brave West Virginians lost their lives in the service of their country.”

Hundreds of National Guard members have been patrolling the capital after Mr Trump issued an emergency order in August, which federalised the local police force and sent in the guard from eight states and the District of Columbia.

Mr Trump has announced an extra 500 troops will be deployed in the wake of Wednesday’s shooting.

FBI director Kash Patel said the troops were “brazenly attacked in a horrendous act of violence”.

At a news conference, he clarified they were in a “critical condition”.

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

Former president Joe Biden, who was heavily criticised by Mr Trump in his address, said he and his wife Jill were “heartbroken” by the shooting.

“Violence of any kind is unacceptable, and we must all stand united against it,” said a statement.

Analysis: Trump’s statement could embolden anti-immigration Americans

US correspondent Mark Stone said it was expected that Trump’s statement would have an update on the investigation and the victims’ condition.

“What struck me was the president’s decision to be so political and to make the point as he wanted to, it seemed, that this will now embolden him to find out who else might be here illegally, wherever they may be from,” Stone said.

“And he singled out Somalis in Minnesota, of course, a Democratic-run state.”

Stone said Trump’s statement could further embolden those who already hold anti-immigration sentiments.

“You might expect a leader in this sort of situation to deal with the facts as he knows them and to call for unity. But it’s not Trump’s style to do that.”

How the attack unfolded

Jeff Carroll, chief of the metropolitan police department in the area, said the attack began at 2.15pm local time (7.15pm in the UK) while National Guard members were on “high visibility patrols in the area”.

He said: “A suspect came around the corner, raised his arm with a firearm and discharged it at the National Guard.

“The National Guard members were… able to – after some back and forth – able to subdue the individual and bring them into custody.”

Washington DC mayor Muriel Bowser called the attack a “targeted shooting”.

Pics: AP
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Pics: AP

Social media footage showed first responders attempting CPR on one of the soldiers as they treated the other on a pavement covered in glass.

Nearby other officers could be seen restraining an individual on the ground.

Emergency personnel cordon off an area near where the National Guard soldiers were shot. Pics: AP
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Emergency personnel cordon off an area near where the National Guard soldiers were shot. Pics: AP

The scene was cordoned off by police tape, while agents from the US Secret Service and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives attended the scene, as National Guard troops stood sentry nearby.

The FBI was also on the scene, the agency’s director said.

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Lindsay and Craig Foreman: Son of British couple detained in Iran says government not doing enough

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Lindsay and Craig Foreman: Son of British couple detained in Iran says government not doing enough

The son of a British couple detained in Iran has said the UK government is not doing enough to secure their release.

Lindsay and Craig Foreman, from East Sussex, were taken into custody in Kerman in January during a motorcycle tour around the world and later charged with espionage, which they deny.

In August, the pair were moved to different jails in Tehran, before being reunited in October at Evin prison, where British-Iranian national Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was held between 2016 and 2022.

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. Pic: Reuters
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Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. Pic: Reuters

‘You need to stand up for your citizens’

Lindsay’s son, Joe Bennett, told Sky News there are too many similarities with Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s situation.

“They themselves are being very passive,” he said of the UK government.

“They’ve got two UK citizens that are accused of spying for the British state, but they’re not coming out and defending them and calling [it out] for what it is.

“You need to stand up for your citizens and call it out.”

Speaking to The World With Dominic Waghorn, Mr Bennett dismissed Iran’s accusation of espionage against his mother and her partner – and accused the regime of “hostage taking”.

Lindsay Foreman with her son Joe Bennett. Pic: Family handout
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Lindsay Foreman with her son Joe Bennett. Pic: Family handout

‘They’re not spies’

Asked whether he had any sympathy with the argument that making too much of the situation makes their release less likely, Mr Bennett said there was “no justification” for the Foreign Office taking such an approach.

“If they’re on charges of shoplifting, potentially that’s understandable, let’s see the court of law, let’s go through it if they’ve been caught of some wrongdoing,” he said.

“They haven’t, and they’ve been accused of espionage, which is state-level political charges, right?

“They’re not spies, it’s quite simple.”

Read more from Sky News:
Court hearing ‘did not go well’ for British couple
Iran protests ‘bring back memories’ of helplessness

Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s husband Richard is supporting Mr Bennett’s case.

He told Sky News: “It does feel to me that I’m hearing too many echoes of our experience in the experience of Joe’s family and others.”

Joe Bennett and Richard Ratcliffe
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Joe Bennett and Richard Ratcliffe

The Foreign Office warns all British and British-Iranian nationals against all travel to Iran because of “significant risk of arrest, questioning, or detention”.

In October, a spokesperson told Sky News the department was deeply concerned by reports that the Foremans had been charged with espionage and that it was providing them with consular support.

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Guinea-Bissau: Military seizes power as President Umaro Sissoco Embalo ‘deposed and arrested’

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Guinea-Bissau: Military seizes power as President Umaro Sissoco Embalo 'deposed and arrested'

Soldiers have appeared on state TV in Guinea-Bissau to say the country’s military has seized power, accusing its president of interfering in Sunday’s election as he revealed he had been “deposed”.

Military spokesperson Dinis N’Tchama said in a statement that the military had decided to “immediately depose the president of the republic” and suspend all government institutions.

He said they acted in response to the “discovery of an ongoing plan” that he said aimed to destabilise the country by attempting to “manipulate electoral results”.

Guinea Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo at the UN in 2023. File pic: Reuters
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Guinea Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo at the UN in 2023. File pic: Reuters

The “scheme was set up by some national politicians with the participation of a well-known drug lord, and domestic and foreign nationals”, Mr N’Tchama said, but gave no details.

The country has emerged as a hub for drug trafficking between Latin America and Europe.

The electoral process was being suspended immediately, along with the activities of the media, while the country’s borders were being closed, he said.

Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embaló told French television network France 24: “I have been deposed.”

French news outlet Jeune Afrique quoted Mr Embaló as saying he was arrested in what he called a coup led by the army chief of staff but did not suffer violence.

An international election observer told Associated Press the president “has been speaking to people saying he’s being held by the military”.

Gunfire was heard near the presidential palace in the capital, Bissau, around noon on Wednesday.

A palace official said a group of armed men tried to attack the building, leading to an exchange of gunfire with guards.

Gunshots were also heard around the nearby national electoral commission, an interior ministry official said.

Both sources spoke on condition of anonymity.

Roads leading to the palace were closed off, with checkpoints manned by heavily armed and masked soldiers, an AP reporter said.

Meanwhile, Mr Embaló and opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa both claimed victory on Tuesday in the presidential and legislative elections held on Sunday, even though official provisional results were not expected until Thursday.

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Mr Embaló, who was elected in February 2020, was due to stand down earlier this year after serving a five-year term.

That was extended until 4 September by the country’s supreme court, but voting was delayed until this month.

Guinea-Bissau has seen four coups and numerous attempted ones since it gained independence in 1974, including one reported last month.

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