Next season, the competitive landscape of college football will undergo some massive shifts. More teams than ever will have a shot to make a playoff appearance, but they’ll also be dealing with greater in-conference competition. Everybody in the sport will have more opportunities to look good — and bad.
So, we asked our staffers which coaches and players — transfers and non-transfers — will have the most to prove during the surely chaotic upcoming season. Here’s what they had to say.
What coach has the most to prove in 2024?
Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
DeBoer just took Washington to the national title game in only his second year — two seasons after the team went 4-8 — so this designation feels a bit unfair, but so are Alabama’s expectations after Nick Saban’s historic tenure. If the College Football Playoff remained at four teams, DeBoer could miss them during a transition year and be given somewhat of a pass. But Alabama expects to be part of the 12-team field every year, and if DeBoer falls short, the pressure and comparisons to Saban will reach nauseating levels in Tuscaloosa. — Adam Rittenberg
James Franklin, Penn State
Franklin’s tenure in State College has featured a lot of winning. He picked up where Bill O’Brien left off in compiling four 11-win seasons. However, in the Nittany Lions’ most prominent games under Franklin, there hasn’t been a lot of winning. With the College Football Playoff expanding from four to 12, Penn State has a great opportunity to break through with both Michigan and Oregon not on the schedule and Ohio State coming to Beaver Stadium in 2024. It just needs to find a way to close out against the better teams on the schedule. — Blake Baumgartner
Mack Brown, North Carolina
Brown is in the Hall of Fame, is one of just three active coaches with a national championship and has taken UNC to five straight bowl games, something the program hadn’t done since Brown’s last tenure there in the late 1990s, so perhaps he doesn’t really have all that much to prove. But when Brown returned to UNC in 2019, it was with the intent to take the Heels from a regular bowl team to a regular playoff contender. At times, he’s seemed close, but despite having two extremely talented quarterbacks in Sam Howell and Drake Maye, UNC still seems stuck on the margins. Brown brought in Geoff Collins this offseason as his third defensive coordinator, and he’ll turn to either veteran Max Johnson or sophomore Conner Harrell to replace Maye. Brown will be 73 when the season kicks off, and while age doesn’t seem to be slowing him down, the window to transform UNC into a real playoff threat won’t be open forever, and there’s certainly those who’ll wonder if he already missed his best chance with Maye. — David Hale
Billy Napier, Florida
In two years with the Gators, Napier is 11-14 and has not come close to beating rival Georgia, which means Florida hasn’t come close to challenging for the SEC East title. How much longer can that go on? Napier enters a crucial Year 3 with perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country, opening against rival Miami while also having to play Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas in the SEC. He has to prove the program is headed in the right direction to have any shot at convincing the fan base he’s the right coach for the job. — Andrea Adelson
Lincoln Riley, USC
I was going to say Chip Kelly at UCLA, but that all changed when Kelly bolted Westwood to call offensive plays at Ohio State for another guy who has some heat on him, Ryan Day. So I’ll stay on the West Coast with Riley, who enters his third season at USC still looking for a College Football Playoff appearance and/or conference title. He’s also facing life without former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams and brought in a new defensive coordinator, D’Anton Lynn, to replace Alex Grinch after the Trojans finished 121st nationally in scoring defense (34.4 points per game) in 2023. It’s premature to suggest Riley is on the cusp of losing his job after just two seasons at USC. But coming off a disappointing 8-5 finish and the playoff expanding to 12 teams in 2024, he needs to make a strong comeback in the new-look Big Ten, or the restlessness will ratchet up considerably in Year 4. — Chris Low
Ryan Day, Ohio State
Few schools have signed a more high-upside set of transfers (Alabama safety Caleb Downs, Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins, quarterbacks Will Howard for the present and Julian Sayin for the future) than Ohio State. After coming up just short of their goals the past couple of years, Day and the Buckeyes appear to be going all-in this year as Michigan undergoes massive turnover. The odds of success are high, but the perils of another year of missed expectations could be awfully damning. — Bill Connelly
When Van Dyke won ACC Rookie of the Year honors in 2021 at Miami, the expectation was that he would be long gone to the NFL by now. But after two sometimes solid, sometimes choppy seasons with different coordinators under coach Mario Cristobal, Van Dyke entered the portal and sought a fresh start. He lands at Wisconsin, which enters Year 2 of its Air Raid-style offense under coordinator Phil Longo after finishing 91st nationally in scoring and 69th in passing last season. If Van Dyke can be the quarterback who makes the Air Raid go in Madison, he will not only boost his NFL chances, but bring Wisconsin closer to the 12-team CFP mix. — Rittenberg
Fairly or not, DJ Uiagalelei carried the bulk of the blame for Clemson’s playoff absences in 2021 and 2022, so Tigers fans were eager to turn the page to Klubnik last season. The results, however, looked a lot more like the DJU era than the Trevor Lawrence era. Klubnik finished the season completing 64% of his throws with 19 TDs and nine interceptions to go with a Total QBR of 55, good for 11th out of 12 qualified ACC QBs. He flashed potential at times, but made frustrating decisions in losses to Duke, Florida State and NC State that overshadowed the intermittent success. Dabo Swinney brought in Matt Luke to rebuild the O-line, and Klubnik is entering his second year with offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. The clock feels like it’s ticking on Klubnik’s chances to prove he’s Clemson’s next star quarterback — and it may be ticking on the Tigers’ chances to return to the playoff, too. — Hale
The good news for Iamaleava is that he certainly appears to have all the tools to be a difference-maker at quarterback and accounted for four touchdowns in his first start last season in Tennessee’s 35-0 victory over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. But from the time Iamaleava signed with the Vols, he’s been under a bright spotlight — from the reported $8 million NIL deal he signed, to being hailed as the quarterback that would vault the Vols back into championship contention, to being at the center of the recent NCAA investigation into Tennessee’s program. No player since Peyton Manning has walked onto Tennessee’s campus with this much pressure to perform at an elite level. — Low
Expectations are going to be sky-high for the Ducks, who are still smarting about last season’s two losses to Washington and their College Football Playoff near miss. Oregon will bring a potent offense (531.4 YPG in 2023, second in the FBS) as it moves to the Big Ten. The faithful out in Eugene will be pinning their collective hopes on Gabriel, who led the Big 12 in passing yards (3,660) and touchdowns (30) last year. — Baumgartner
One of the biggest revelations of 2022 was one of the biggest disappointments of 2023, relatively speaking. After recording 13.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles in only 498 snaps as a freshman, Perkins produced 15, 5.5 and three, respectively, in 746 snaps last season. Good? Obviously. But not quite as transcendent. If he rediscovers the per-snap dominance that he had in 2022 under aggressive new coordinator Blake Baker, that alone could transform LSU’s defense. — Connelly
No national contending team made a more aggressive offseason personnel push than Ohio State, which will seek its first CFP championship in a decade. Elite quarterback play has been the standard for most of Day’s tenure, though, and Howard must reach that level after a four-year run at Kansas State that included a Big 12 title and good production both as a passer and a runner, but also two seasons with 10 interceptions. Howard will have the nation’s best running back tandem (TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins) and a gifted wide receiver group at his disposal. He doesn’t have to be the sole reason why Ohio State wins a national title, but he can’t be the reason the Buckeyes fall short, either. — Rittenberg
This is going to be quite the thought experiment. I found myself thinking, “Man, if Ohio State just had a top-20 level quarterback, they’d be the best team in the country with this defense” multiple times in 2023, and in Howard it has inked the quarterback who ranked 22nd in Total QBR last season, right on that top-20 borderline. He’s not C.J. Stroud, but he might be good enough, especially in such a transition year for quarterbacks overall. — Connelly
Nolen was the No. 1 recruit in the country when he signed with Texas A&M to headline the Aggies’ top-ranked recruiting class in 2022. He showed flashes of being an All-SEC performer with 11 tackles for loss and five sacks in his first two seasons in the SEC. The key now is being that kind of player on every down, as Ole Miss will look to Nolen to be an enforcer in its defensive line on what should be Lane Kiffin’s most talented defense yet in Oxford. The 6-4, 295-pound Nolen was one of the most coveted players in the 2023 transfer portal. If he plays to that level and becomes a more consistent player — along with some of the other key transfers Ole Miss brought in — the Rebels should be right in the middle of the 2024 playoff chase. — Low
All eyes are going to be on the latest ACC transfer signal-caller to come through South Bend. That’s just the way it is. Leonard showed glimpses of what he could do when healthy during the last two seasons at Duke (2,967 passing yards and 20 touchdowns for a nine-win Blue Devils’ team in 2022). After playing in only seven games because of injury last season, he now gets the opportunity to shine on a far bigger stage for perhaps the sport’s biggest brand. A third 10-win campaign in four years and a potential return to the CFP is well within reach if Leonard can effectively pilot the offense for Marcus Freeman. — Baumgartner
At the risk of turning this into a pro-ACC quarterback fest, we have been waiting on Uiagalelei to play like an elite quarterback since his arrival at Clemson in 2020. That has not quite happened yet. Uiagalelei transferred to Oregon State for the 2023 season after a constant barrage of criticism during his two years as a starter with the Tigers. He played better in his one season with the Beavers, but now finds himself joining the reigning ACC champions with the belief he can put it all together. Uiagalelei has never thrown for 3,000 yards or more than 22 touchdowns in three years as a starter. “He’s been in some tough situations,” coach Mike Norvell said. “I don’t get too caught up on what other people’s perceptions are at quarterback, because we just lived it. Plenty of people didn’t perceive Jordan Travis to be a great quarterback, and I’m really glad that I got the opportunity to show that he was. I’m excited to work with him, excited about what he brings, and obviously where that can go.” — Andrea Adelson
A number of coaches viewed Ward as the crown jewel of this year’s quarterback class. Ward toyed with entering the NFL draft — even announcing his intent to do so at one point — but instead landed at Miami. It could be a match made in heaven. Mario Cristobal has been stockpiling talent in Coral Gables, and he believes this Canes team is close to fulfilling its potential. On the other hand, Miami’s QB play in two years under Cristobal has been mediocre at best, with many of Tyler Van Dyke‘s biggest miscues playing directly into inexplicable Miami losses. Can Ward be the long-awaited answer for Miami? His passer rating and Total QBR last year both trailed Van Dyke’s, so there’s a lot of big assumptions in play here. The upside is awfully high though, and a career year from Ward could be the missing ingredient that finally puts Miami over the top. Since joining the ACC, Miami has never had a first-team all-conference quarterback. — Hale
But that doesn’t mean there’s not a reason to be outraged. Indeed, it means the committee had a whole week to fix the mistakes it had already made, and it chose not to!
So, who should be most angry this week? Grab a pillow to scream into and a stress ball to clutch. We’ve got a lot to get off our chests.
A fact the committee made clear this week: Beating Mercer by 45 points is better than sitting at home on the couch.
So it is that Alabama, which was ranked behind Miami last week, beat up on a hapless FCS opponent and jumped Miami during the Canes’ open date.
Was there a message in this?
Surely, the message could be that taking the week off isn’t something to be rewarded, but we’re betting that’s not a message the committee wants to send while coaches are arguing about the value of playing in a conference title game.
Is the message that blowing out a team from the Southern Conference is really impressive? All due respect to UMass-Lowell, but we doubt it.
No, the message seems to be that the ACC needs to understand its place in the pecking order, and the line starts behind Alabama. Funny, because we thought the ACC already got that message last year, when Florida State was left out.
Alas, Miami went from No. 4 in the first rankings all the way to No. 8 now, thanks to a one-possession loss to a solid (and underrated) Georgia Tech team. But is that fair?
Miami has four wins over SP+ top-40 teams this season — the same number as Alabama and twice as many as Notre Dame.
Miami has a better loss than either of the two teams directly in front of it: Georgia Tech is No. 55 by SP+. Vanderbilt (one of two losses for Alabama, remember) is No. 61. Northern Illinois, which beat Notre Dame in South Bend, is No. 84.
Miami’s problem, of course, is it lacks a signature win. Notre Dame has Texas A&M. Alabama has Georgia. Miami has … Florida ?
So perhaps the Canes shouldn’t be quite as mad at the committee here as they should be furious with Louisville. The Cardinals were the lynchpin victory for both Miami and SMU (and helped Notre Dame, too), but they bungled their way to a loss to Stanford that will be studied by future generations as a model of ineptitude.
That the committee has woefully undervalued SMU all season, has shoved Miami behind the two-loss Tide, and thinks Clemson is worse than Colorado is the real message here though. The ACC is a one-bid league. The committee is spelling it out loud and clear.
Let’s state something at the top: Texas is probably quite good. It is, of course, not the Longhorns’ fault they joined the SEC and still drew a Big 12-caliber schedule. But facts are facts, and in a conference with six eight-win teams and four more already bowl eligible, Texas has played exactly two Power 4 opponents with a winning record this season. Those games resulted in a three-point win over Vanderbilt and a shellacking by Georgia.
But Texas has one loss, and the rest of the SEC competition has two or three. Is that all that should matter?
Will be interesting to see the SEC pecking order, and it’s hard to fault Texas for the schedule it was handed… but 1 team is not like the others here. pic.twitter.com/K6yISrTFN5
Ultimately, winning games is the most important thing, and the committee seems to recognize that with Indiana at No. 5, despite a schedule that might well have included a home game against Bishop Sycamore.
But is it all that matters? If Texas played Georgia’s schedule, would it still have a better record? Their head-to-head meeting would suggest otherwise.
Again, it’s hardly Texas’ fault the SEC rolled out the red carpet in Year 1. But it is up to Texas to impress when the spotlight is on, and since the blowout win against Michigan — a team vastly overrated at the time — the marquee moments have been mostly meh, right up to last week’s mediocrity against Arkansas.
Ultimately, an incredibly good SEC team — Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, South Carolina or Alabama — is going to end up having played a markedly tougher schedule, proved they can hang with the best of the best, and either go on the road for a arduous opening-round matchup or be left out altogether.
(Seriously, how is Georgia the 10th-best team in the country? There’s no logical argument.)
But Texas? Even with a loss to A&M, it’s hard to see the Horns falling from No. 3 to a place outside the top 11.
There’s a good case to be made that the Jayhawks are an incredibly undervalued opponent right now. They opened the season ranked in the top 25, they’re just rounding into shape now, and they’ve been incredibly unlucky, going 1-5 in one-possession games. SP+ ranks Kansas as a better loss than Vandy or Georgia Tech. And BYU was still probably the better team in that game, but a special teams miscue cost the Cougars a win.
So what? BYU probably should’ve lost to SMU or Oklahoma State or Utah, and karma is a real jerk.
Still, let’s compare some résumés here.
Team A: 9-1, No. 13 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 12, loss to SP+ No. 84, 3 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team B: 9-1, No. 15 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 46, loss to SP+ No. 5, 0 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team C: 9-1, No. 9 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 22, loss to SP+ No. 55, 2 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team D: 9-1, No. 8 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 13, loss to SP+ No. 42, 3 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
They’re all in roughly the same demographic, sure, but if you’re splitting hairs, it’s hard not to split them in Team D’s direction, right?
Well, of course, Team D is BYU. And, of course, Team A (Notre Dame), B (Boise State) and C (Miami) are all ranked higher.
Way back when the playoff began and the committee was launched, the idea was not to adjust the rankings entirely off the previous week — sending teams that lose tumbling and teams that win inching up as attrition occurs above them — but to view each team’s résumé anew each week. But this committee is acting every bit like the AP voters of old — dropping Miami and Georgia and Tennessee and, particularly, BYU, because of recency bias rather than the sum total of the results. Heck, BYU is now behind SMU — a team with the same record the Cougars beat head to head!
And the real issue here? With BYU, Colorado and Arizona State all now ranked behind Boise State, the odds of the Big 12 missing an opening-round bye are looking pretty strong.
Maybe Coach Prime should use some of his considerable air time to mention that.
Speaking of Coach Prime, here we are again with the clearly superior two-loss Big 12 team ranked five spots behind Colorado.
Same record. Arizona State’s worst loss was by 10 without its starting quarterback. Colorado was blown out by Nebraska. ASU’s best win is against SP+ No. 18; Colorado’s is No. 49.
And, if we’re being honest, Kenny Dillingham’s postgame rants this season have been more entertaining than Deion’s, too.
ASU coach labels kicking game ‘atrocious,’ confirms tryouts for Monday
ASU coach Kenny Dillingham labels his team’s kicking game “atrocious” and says it will be hosting open tryouts on Monday.
This is a mistake by the committee, plain and simple.
5. The Power 4
We won’t get to say this very often, but the power players are getting screwed.
OK, not really. The SEC and Big Ten will be fine, and even if they’re not, they can cry themselves to sleep on giant piles of money.
But the fact remains that Boise State is primed for a first-round bye, and this week’s top 25 includes four teams from outside the traditional power conferences: Boise State, Army, Tulane and UNLV.
That’s the most during any one week since the final poll of the 2021 season that featured five, but among those were Houston, Cincinnati and BYU — all power conference teams now. Only twice before have four teams not currently in a power conference league (or the Pac-12) been ranked concurrently — in the wild COVID year of 2020, and for a single week in 2019 with Boise State, App State, Memphis and Navy.
Somewhere, Greg Sankey is diabolically petting a cat in an oversized chair and plotting revenge.
Also Angry: Duke, Pitt, Kansas State, Syracuse, James Madison and Washington State (all 7-3 or better, unranked and with more wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams than Illinois), SMU (9-1, No. 13), Georgia (8-2, No. 10. Seriously, who thinks there are nine better teams?)
College Football Senior Writer for ESPN. Insider for College Gameday.
Villanova has hired Oregon deputy athletic director/COO Eric Roedl as the Wildcats’ new athletic director, the school announced Tuesday.
Roedl replaces Mark Jackson, who departed after nine years for the same role at Northwestern, and gives Villanova a new face to lead its athletic department at a time when its nationally recognized basketball program is struggling for the third consecutive season.
Villanova chose Roedl, a Wildcats alum, in part because of the breadth of experience he brings from his time at Oregon. Roedl played a big role on a macro level at Oregon with the school’s No. 1-ranked football program and perennially successful basketball program.
University president Peter M. Donohue said in statement that he is confident Roedl is someone who can “successfully navigate the changing landscape of college athletics and who possesses the necessary skills to build on our legacy of success-athletically, academically, and administratively — well into the future.”
Roedl had a big part in the search that brought Dan Lanning from Georgia to Eugene, played a key role behind the scenes on Oregon’s move to the Big Ten and has strong Nike relationships from his time at the school, which began in 2012.
There’s also significant local experience for Roedl, who graduated from Villanova in 1997 and was a co-captain of the tennis team. He also worked at Temple for eight years, which included oversight of its basketball program.
“As a Villanova alum and former student-athlete, it is an honor to return to my alma mater,” Roedl said in a statement. “My vision is to collaborate with University leadership, the Villanova community, our coaches, staff, and student-athletes to maintain a championship culture throughout the athletic department that places the highest value on student-athlete experience and success and strives to match and promote the excellence of Villanova in everything we do.”
Roedl’s first big decision is expected to be on the future of basketball coach Kyle Neptune, who continues to struggle in his third season at Villanova. Neptune, who replaced Hall of Fame coach Jay Wright, is 37-36 and 2-3 this season with a loss to Columbia.
Wright won national titles at Villanova in 2016 and 2018, but the program has slipped dramatically since his retirement.
Roedl’s responsibilities at Oregon included a role as the sport administrator for men’s basketball. He also had oversight responsibility for business/financial operations, strategic and financial planning, human resources, contracts, information technology and equipment operations.
“Eric has played a key role over many years in the Oregon Athletics success,” Ducks athletic director Rob Mullens said in a statement. “Eric brings strong leadership, a commitment to the student-athlete experience and a competitive spirit to Villanova. The Wildcats have a bright future with Eric Roedl at the helm.”
Ducks football coach Dan Lanning added, “I’ve been fortunate enough to work closely with Eric and our football team the last three years here at Oregon and can say with confidence that Villanova is getting an all-star.”
Roedl will officially start in his new role in early January.
College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
Colorado coach Deion Sanders, who has his team pushing for a Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff appearance, says he doesn’t intend on leaving despite talk about him being a possible candidate for other jobs, including in the NFL.
Sanders has engineered an impressive turnaround at Colorado (8-2), which already has doubled its wins total from 2023. The Pro Football Hall of Famer, who began his college coaching career at Jackson State, has been mentioned as a potential candidate for current or expected NFL coach openings, including the Dallas Cowboys, where he played from 1995 to 1999 and won two Super Bowls.
“I’m happy where I am, man,” Sanders said Tuesday. “I’ve got a kickstand down. You know what a kickstand is? … That means I’m resting. I’m good, I’m happy, I’m excited. I’m enthusiastic about where I am. I love it here, truly do.”
Sanders received a five-year, $29.5 million contract when he was hired at Colorado in late 2022, following a 1-11 season for the team. The 16th-ranked Buffaloes, who visit Kansas on Saturday, are two wins away from a spot in the Big 12 title game in their first season back in the conference. They are led by Heisman Trophy contenders Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, son of Deion Sanders. Both are set to depart for the NFL after the season, along with other key contributors.
Sanders on Tuesday also recognized several freshmen who are contributing to Colorado’s success this season.
“It says a lot about what we plan on being and the stability that we’re going to be here for a while,” Sanders said. “We ain’t going nowhere. We’re about to get comfortable.”