Hyundai IONIQ 5 (left) and IONIQ 6 (right) at Tesla Supercharger (Source: Hyundai)
There’s a loophole in the stricter IRA federal tax credit that only applies $3750 rebates on North American-built cars and separately $3750 on domestic batteries. For whatever reason, all EVs get the full $7500 applied to leases, however. So that has more people leasing EVs than ever before.
The number of electric vehicle models that can be leased for less than $400/month has grown by 50% since last August. The list now includes ten models with factory offers that rival lease terms on low-priced ICE vehicles such as the Toyota Camry LE, Chevy Equinox LT, and Honda HR-V LX. Two of those EV models have a range of over 300 miles.
1. 2023 Vinfast VF8 Eco – $268/month
On paper, the VF8 Eco looks pretty good, given an incredibly attractive average monthly lease cost that’s well under $300/month before tax and license. Its 264-mile range and 0-60 time of 6.5 seconds is in line with the competition, has a roomier than expected cabin and comes with amenities not typically found in a base trim such as heated front seats, adaptive cruise control, power-folding heated side mirrors, and leather-like seating surfaces. However, cargo space behind the rear seats of this 5-passenger all-wheel drive crossover measures at just 13.2 cubic feet, which would be excusable If that was the only shortcoming of this fledgling EV, but sadly it is not. Reviews by major auto enthusiast publications last spring have been negative, citing quality issues, quirky driving dynamics, and buggy software.
VinFast VF 8 (Source: VinFast)
Vinfast says improvements have been made to the VF8 since then, and at $249/month for 36 months with $944 to start before tax and license, it might be worthwhile to give it a test drive to experience how it measures up. If a three-year commitment is too risky, Vinfast’s online payment estimator says that a 24-month, zero-down lease is priced at just $299/month. Either way, the VF8 could save thousands of dollars over leasing any other all-wheel-drive crossover, gas or electric.
2. 2024 Nissan LEAF S – $332/month (Northeast), $357/month (elsewhere)
At $249/month for 36 months with $3219 to start, the 2024 Nissan LEAF S leases for $23/month less than the 2023 model did last August. The front-drive, five-passenger hatchback with 24 cubic feet of cargo space behind its rear seats is a carryover from last year, so it looks and performs as it has for a while, providing 149 miles of range on a full charge and a 0-60 time of 7.4 seconds. Those that yearn for more range and oomph can opt for a LEAF in SV Plus trim (0-60 in 6.8 seconds, 226-mile range), but its average monthly lease cost will be north of $400/month unless the dealer agrees to a substantial discount.
Nissan LEAF / Source: Nissan
Fortunately, we did find a number of dealers advertising thousands off MSRP on a 2023 or 2024 LEAF SV Plus. In fact, we found two dealers – Quirk Nissan in Massachusetts and Beaverton Nissan in Oregon – touting lease offers on an SV Plus with an average monthly cost that’s under $300/month before tax and license. Look for Nissan LEAF deals near you.
3. 2024 Hyundai Ioniq 5 – $333/month (SE Standard Range), $353/month (SE Long Range RWD)
This eye-popping offer of $242/month for 36 months and $3507 at signing is by far the best factory lease deal we’ve seen on the critically acclaimed, beautifully sculpted Hyundai Ioniq 5. The five-passenger crossover with 27.2 cubic feet of stowage behind the back seats, when in SE Standard Range trim, is good for 220 miles on a full charge and adequately accelerates from zero to 60mph in 7.4 seconds. Want an even better bargain? Committing another $55/month over the three-year lease term buys a whopping 37% bump up in range, for a total of 303 miles.
Hyundai IONIQ 5 Source: Hyundai
Want more bells and whistles, or all-wheel-drive, or maybe even both? It can all be had for under $400/month plus tax and license by scoring a big enough dealer discount. For example, Mission Hills Hyundai in Los Angeles has a rear-wheel-drive Ioniq 5 in SEL trim discounted by $2500 that’s leasing at $138/month for 36 month, $5787 at signing, which calculates to an average monthly cost of just $295/month. On the other side of the continent, McGovern Hyundai in Massachusetts is leasing an all-wheel-drive Ioniq 5 SE for $249/month for 36 months, $3499 at signing, which has an average monthly cost of $339/month. And Hyundai 112 on Long Island is advertising an Ioniq 5 SEL AWD lease at $426/month for 39 months with $1076 at signing, which does include the New York Drive Clean rebate, but it’s apparently priced with no dealer discount. These terms step over our $400 line in the sand, but negotiating a $1500 to $2000 discount should drop the effective lease cost of an all-wheel-drive Ioniq 5 SEL (255 miles of range, 0-60 in 4.4 seconds) to less than $400/month. Let us help you find a great Ioniq 5 deal in your area.
Here we go again! During last year’s EV price war, Hyundai slashed over $100/month off the effective monthly lease cost of its least expensive Ioniq 6, which at the time was the 240-mile Ioniq 6 SE Standard Range. Last week, Hyundai took another swing at their Ioniq 6 incentives, perhaps in response to Tesla reducing the monthly lease cost of cheapest Model 3 sedan down to $432/month. So now the 2024 Ioniq 6 SE, a sleek sedan capable of covering an astounding 361 miles on a full charge and sprinting from zero to sixty in just 6.2 seconds, can be leased for just $249/month for 36 months with $3499 due at signing, plus tax and license. Upgrading to SEL trim takes only $14/month more, adding larger wheel and tires, wireless device charging, leather-like seating surfaces, digital key, enhanced collision avoidance, and enhanced driving assistance to the already well-appointed SE trim.
5. Kia Niro EV Wind – $343/month (2023), $357/month (2024)
At $239/month for 36 months and $4499 to start, the factory lease offer on a 2024 Kia Niro EV Wind has an average monthly cost that’s $30/month less than the lease on a 2023 model back in August. Remaining 2023 models are slightly cheaper, advertised at the same monthly payment as a 2024 but requiring $500 less to start. The five-passenger, front-drive crossover goes 253 miles on a full charge, scoots from zero to 60mph in 6.7 seconds, and carries 23 cubic feet of cargo behind the rear seats.
The new-for-2024 Kona Electric SE leases for $259/month for 36 months and $3999 to start, plus tax and license. That computes to an effective cost that’s $10/month less than the factory lease offer on the first-gen 2023 model in base SE trim offered last August, but there is some give-and-take. On the plus side, in addition to fresh interior and exterior aesthetics, the redesigned front-drive five-passenger crossover grew six inches in length, contributing to more passenger space as well as a 33% larger cargo area behind the rear seats, now measuring at 25.5 cubic feet. The rub is that the base model now comes with a smaller 48.6 kWh battery and less powerful 133hp motor, dropping its range to 200 miles and slowing its 0-60mph time to 8.7 seconds. Those that long for the range and performance achieved by the Kona Electric of yore can pony up an additional $60/month for a second-gen in SEL trim, which scoots from zero to sixty in 6.7 seconds and goes 261 miles on a full charge.
2024 Hyundai Kona EV (Source: Hyundai)
As one might expect, the redesigned Kona Electric is pretty much selling at MSRP for now, less any factory incentives, which is currently at a very compelling $7500 whether you choose to lease or buy. There are several dealers offering discounts worth mentioning, though. Keyes Hyundai of Mission Hills in the Los Angeles area and Coggin DeLand Hyundai in Florida are advertising a $1000 discount on their Kona Electric inventory, Dahl Hyundai in Wisconsin is offering an SEL at $945 off, and Bob Howard Hyundai in Oklahoma City is discounting one 2024 SEL by $3780. Quantities are currently limited when compared to other Hyundai EVs and to its platform sibling, the Kia Niro EV, with the price-leading SE trim being the most scarce, accounting for less than 10% of the Kona Electrics currently on dealer lots. Find a Hyundai Kona Electric at a dealer near you.
7. 2024 Mini Electric Hardtop – $371/month
Mini keeps trimming the lease cost of its Electric Hardtop, now advertised at $279/month for 36 months with $3579 due at signing for a 2024 model. That calculates to an average lease cost that’s $22 less than the lease terms on a 2023 model back in August. The front-drive, two-door, four-seat hatchback with 8.7 cubic feet of cargo space behind its rear seats sprints from zero to 60mph in 6.1 seconds but travels only up to 114 miles on a full charge.
Mini enthusiasts that long for more range will have to wait until its 2025 refresh, which promises a bigger battery that should be good for 200+ miles on a charge. Until then, don’t be surprised if Mini continues to whittle away at the current model’s lease cost. As far as dealer discounts, estimates from car shopping websites indicate markdowns ranging between 2% (about $500-$700) to 4% (about $1300) can be expected, which should translate to a $10-$20/month savings from the factory lease offer. Check for a Mini Electric Hardtop deal near you.
8. 2023 VW ID.4 Standard – $388/month
If size is all that matters, The VW ID.4 Standard could be viewed as the best factory lease deal on this list since it’s the only one that can carry five people and over 30 cubic feet of cargo at the same time, just barely edging out the Subaru Solterra by a cubic foot or so. However, settling on the Standard trim level means settling for rear-wheel-drive and a smaller battery, limiting its range to 209 miles and its zero to sixty time to 7.6 seconds. If more range and performance is desired, the decked-out ID.4 Pro S AWD goes 255 miles on a full charge and sprints to 60mph from a standstill in 5.5 seconds. VW’s lease offer on the Pro S AWD is a relatively reasonable $379/month for 36 months with $4499 to start, which computes to an average monthly lease cost of just $471/month.
Dealers practically sold out of the Solterra in Premium trim after Subaru declared a no-down, $399/month lease offer last August, which is a bargain for a five-passenger, all-wheel-drive EV that hauls 29 cubic feet of cargo behind its rear seats, hits 60mph from standstill in 6.5 seconds, and covers 222 miles on a full charge. By our observation, dealer stock of the Premium and Limited trim levels remained depleted as the killer lease deal was continued into the new year, leaving only the top-of-the-line Touring trim available. Good news is that dealerships have some 2023 Premium and Limited Solterras in showrooms again, and Touring models are being discounted generously. But don’t expect these 2023 deals to last long since scores of the improved 2024 Solterra are in transit to retailers, and although Subaru is holding the line on its MSRP going into the new model year, it may be wise to assume the alluring lease terms will no longer persist.
Last and certainly not least is the 260-mile Tesla Model Y, which is seeing its most competitive pricing ever and leases starting at $379/month with the terms outlined below.
Tesla has the most robust charging network by far, and there are more Model Ys on the road than any other EV, guaranteeing many accessories, repairability, and general knowledge of the vehicle. You can also skip the annoying dealership experience.
Bump the car up to Long Range 310-mile AWD for $430/month. Extras include optional 7-seats, tow hitch, premium paint, FSD and 3.5 sec 0-60 Performance option. Use our referral link to get 3 months of FSD for free.
Lee Zeldin, Chief Saboteur of the Environmental “Protection” Agency. Photo by SecretName101 on wikimedia
Lee Zeldin, titular head of the Environmental “Protection” Agency, officially announced several efforts to harm Americans’ health, increase their fuel costs by tens of billions of dollars per year, and to ensure that US manufacturing be less competitive into the future.
Zeldin called his actions today, mostly in the form of press releases declaring rollbacks of money-saving and pollution reducing measures, “the greatest day of deregulation in US history.”
However, that’s all bad news for the enemies of America, and so today, one of them started efforts to reverse all of those positive moves.
Unfortunately for America and the world, the current occupier of the White House is convicted felon Donald Trump, who finally received more votes than his opponent on his third attempt (despite committing treason in 2021, for which there is a clear legal remedy).
Today Zeldin put that claim into action… er, well, into more talk… by releasing a swath of unspecific press releases declaring his intent to increase harm and costs for Americans in all sorts of realms.
Most of these press releases focus on the same platitudes and Orwellian doublespeak that we have come to expect from a bought-and-paid oil stooge, claiming that the efforts will reduce costs when they in fact will raise costs, and that they will somehow clean up the environment while they dirty it.
A few specific efforts are pointed out, such as trying to reverse an electric vehicle mandate that doesn’t exist, showing that Zeldin is not just hostile to Americans, but also ignorant of the policy that he’s supposed to be administering. And, flying in the face of science, an effort to remove the EPA’s endangerment finding – a scientific finding which correctly acknowledges the danger of greenhouse gas emissions.
Zeldin also uses some questionable language, such as acknowledging that he’s putting a “dagger straight into the heart” of efforts to lower your costs and rid your life of the poisons that he has been paid to spread.
However, the true effects of these initiatives has not yet been seen, and is even hard to predict given the unspecific nature of the claims made and the long timelines for US rulemaking.
US rulemaking is a long and deliberate process that requires consensus and for rulemaking to have a scientific basis. Rules cannot be “arbitrary and capricious” – which makes it hard for a group of people who embody those terms more than almost anyone on Earth to push anything through.
Further compounding Zeldin’s attempted sabotage of American interests is a recent court opinion overturning the Chevron rule. The effect of this would be that administrative agencies like the EPA have less authority to make changes on their own without going to courts or Congress first, which means that any changes made by Zeldin can potentially be challenged even moreso by the actual environmental protectors of this country – nonprofits like the Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club, Environmental Defense Fund and others.
These groups had significant success in challenging moves made by corrupt oil stooge Scott Pruitt and ignorant coal lobbyist Andrew Wheeler to sabotage American health during Mr. Trump’s first occupation of the White House. The NRDC, for example, won over 90% of the cases they brought during that time frame.
And the groups are all lining up to oppose these harmful actions today.
“The Trump administration’s plans, as announced by executive order, would gut the bedrock national and state clean air standards that have been reducing air pollution and protecting communities across the country. They would also undermine investments, jobs and affordability for clean vehicles. The public has a right to know what the Trump administration is doing and why they are pursuing this harmful agenda. We are going to court to ensure they do.”
-Alice Henderson, Director and Lead Counsel for Transportation and Clean Air, Environmental Defense Fund
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin today announced plans for the greatest increase in pollution in decades. The result will be more toxic chemicals, more cancers, more asthma attacks, and more dangers for pregnant women and their children. Rather than helping our economy, it will create chaos.
-Amanda Leland, Executive Director, Environmental Defense Fund
Donald Trump’s actions will cause thousands of Americans to die each year. It will send thousands of children to the hospital and force even more to miss school. It will pollute the air and water in communities across the country. And it will cause our energy bills to go up even more than they already are because of his disastrous policies. But as they put all of us at risk, Trump and his administration are celebrating because it will help corporate polluters pad their profit margin.
The American people should be furious. The EPA exists to protect us from serious pollution that endangers our lives and wellbeing, but Trump and Lee Zeldin are attempting to turn it into corporate polluters’ best friend.
Make no mistake about it: we will fight these outrageous rollbacks tooth and nail, and we will use all resources at our disposal to continue protecting the health and safety of all Americans.
-Ben Jealous, Executive Director, Sierra Club
Breaking faith with the American people and breaking 50 years of laws of the land, the Environmental Protection Agency today abandoned protecting human health and the environment. Repealing or weakening these important safeguards on pollution from cars, power plants, and oil producers would mean higher energy bills, more asthma and heart attacks, more toxins in drinking water, and more extreme weather.
At a time when millions of Americans are trying to rebuild after horrific wildfires and climate-fueled hurricanes, it’s nonsensical to try to deny that climate change harms our health and welfare.
Still, today’s announcement is only the start of the process – not the end. Before finalizing any of these actions, the law says EPA must propose its changes, justify them with science and the law, and listen to the public and respond to its concerns. NRDC’s scientists and lawyers will be there to fight back at every step of the way.
Jackie Wong, senior vice president for climate and energy, Natural Resources Defense Council
Finally, it should be noted that, while the US is attempting policy suicide by saddling it’s people with more harm and higher costs, the rest of the world is not doing the same. While the US is actively backing away from clean manufacturing, China and Europe aren’t.
Other countries are making the transition and ready to lead the world into the present, while American republicans kick and scream the country into obscurity. This is what a slim plurality of voters wanted, and it’s what you’re getting.
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BMW is preparing to launch its next-gen EVs, promising to deliver significantly more range, faster charging, and advanced new tech. With their debut just around the corner, BMW is giving us a closer look at the upcoming i3 and iX3 as it wraps up testing.
BMW’s new i3 and iX3 EVs are coming soon
The first Neue Klasse model, the iX3, will go into series production later this year, followed shortly after by the i3.
Although we will learn full specs later this year, BMW said its advanced new 800V platform is a “quantum leap forward” delivering 30% faster charging while boosting range by up to 30%. Even better, it will enable lower prices.
The platform will house BMW’s next-gen electric motors (up to four) and batteries. BMW confirmed the new NMC batteries feature its new Gen6 cylindrical cells, which are 20% more energy dense than the previous prismatic cells.
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For the first time, BMW’s “Heart of Joy” ECU combines the drivetrain and driving dynamics into one single unit to maximize efficiency.
The ECU was developed 100% in-house, featuring four “super brains” that provide “more than 20 times the computing power” compared to BMW’s current vehicles. In other words, BMW’s next-gen iX3 and i3 will be smarter, more powerful, and more efficient than ever.
BMW Neue Klasse electric SUV (iX3) and sedan (i3)(Source: BMW)
With testing nearly complete, we are getting a closer look at BMW’s upcoming Neue Klasse. BMW previewed the new i3 and iX3 testing under extreme conditions.
BMW’s electric SUV was shown ripping across South Africa’s desert during “final preparations” for hot-land testing as it gears up for its big debut later this year.
BMW iX3 electric SUV testing in South Africa (Source: BMW Group)
The gas-powered X3 is one of BMW’s top-selling vehicles and will still be sold alongside the upcoming EV version.
Meanwhile, the i3 sedan will follow the iX3 as the second electric vehicle based on BMW’s new platform. It was shown during cold weather testing in Sweden, skating across the icy tundra. The i3 will also make an official appearance later this year before launching in early 2026.
BMW i3 electric sedan testing in Sweden (source: BMW Group)
As you can see, BMW updated the new generation with a refined face and sportier overall feel. The signature kidney grille remains, but cameras and radars power new ADAS features.
We will find out more later, but to give you an idea, the 2024 i4 has an EPA-estimated range of up to 301 miles and fast charging (10% to 80%) in 31 minutes. A 30% improvement would suggest a range of around 390 miles and fast charging in less than 22 minutes.
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Tesla (TSLA) delivery consensus from Wall Street is still at 418,000 electric vehicles in Q1 2025, but they are dreaming.
Deliveries are currently tracking about 40,000 units lower.
Tesla delivered just short of 387,000 vehicles in Q1 2024 and 1.8 million vehicles in 2024—the automaker’s first year of deliveries being down since it achieved high-volume production.
Now, analysts are wondering if deliveries are going down for Tesla in 2025.
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Wall Street has been quite optimistic so far. The Wall Street delivery consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 started the year at 464,000 deliveries, which is slightly down from Q4 2024, but it is up a massive 20% year-over-year.
However, analysts have been gradually updating their estimates, and the consensus is now it sits at 418,000 deliveries, which would still be up 8% over Q1 2024.
That’s surprisingly high for anyone who has been watching Tesla closely this quarter since deliveries have been tracking below Q1 2024.
The data is more opaque in the US, but S&P data just released some data based on vehicle registration for January in the US, and Tesla is down 11% or about 4,000 units.
If you have been doing the math, it means that available data shows that Tesla is about 31,000 units behind where it was last quarter in its 3 main markets – with a few weeks left to report in China, a month in Europe, and two months in the US, to be fair.
31,000 units lower than 387,000 would mean 356,000 deliveries in Q1 2025, but there’s obviously still time for Tesla to either catch up or fall further behind.
Wall Street analysts are notoriously slower to update their numbers, but some have been catching up this week.
Guggenheim updated its delivery estimate from 405,000 deliveries to 358,000 units in Q1 2025 today.
JP Morgan also updated its delivery estimate from 444,000 to 355,000 in an update shared with clients today.
Both these firms have bearish outlooks on Tesla’s stock.
Morgan Stanley is one of the most bullish firms on Tesla, and they also came out with a new note today reiterating an overweight rating on Tesla’ stock. Analyst Adam Jonas says that he still sees Tesla’s volume growing 7%, which would put deliveries at 414,000 units this quarter.
As for prediction market Kalshi, which creates estimates based on people betting on Tesla’s delivery results, the estimate currently sits at 324,000 deliveries:
It’s fair to say that delivery predictions for Tesla’s Q1 2025 are currently quite all over the place.
Electrek’s Take
I am sure that the Wall Street consensus will come down by the end of the month because it is incredibly inflated right now.
It should at least be under Q1 2024.
On the other hand, I think the prediction market on Kalshi is probably overly pessimistic, but it’s also not impossible.
Tesla’s US sales this month are a bit of a mystery and they probably didn’t look good if Elon resorted to giving Trump another $100 million and having him do an informercial for the company at the White House.
We have more data coming from insurance registration in China in the coming weeks that should give us a pretty good idea.
Tesla certainly needs to ramp up deliveries of the new Model Y in China in the coming weeks. Otherwise, the Kalshi prediction could become accurate.
What do you think? What’s your prediction for Tesla in Q1 2025? For now, I think it is undoubtedly below 380,000 units and no less than 350,000 units.
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