Rishi Sunak struggling to maintain voter coalition that delivered 2019 victory, according to Sky News voter panel
Rishi Sunak is failing to hold together the voting coalition that delivered Boris Johnson a decisive victory in the 2019 general election, according to The Voters Panel on Sky News – launched today.
A profound unhappiness with the state of the country and exhaustion at years of Tory chaos means 2019 Tory voters will flock to at least four rival parties or stay at home at the next election.
Some describe themselves as swing voters, while others say they have backed the Tories all their lives, and this is the group Conservative headquarters and campaign chief Isaac Levido believes is key to the next election.
We found just over a fifth of Tory voters will switch directly to Labour and there is a grasp of what Labour stands for among participants in The Voters Panel, the Sky News-YouGov digital community group launched today reveals.
Pic: PA
However, the depth of despair in the governing party means the relationship between the party and many voters has shattered and they are looking for a new home.
For the next two weeks, including through the budget next Wednesday, Sky News will be regularly interrogating The Voters Panel – an online group of at least 33 people from all corners of Great Britain.
Of the 33 submitting answers so far, nine say they will likely stick with the Conservatives, seven will go to Labour, five to Reform, two to the Lib Dems and one to Green.
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Eight say they aren’t sure, although three of these rule out voting Conservative. This echoes the latest polls.
The last YouGov voting poll suggested of those who voted Tory in 2019, 33% would stick with the party, 20% would switch to Reform, 13% to Labour, 3% to Lib Dem and 1% would go to the Green Party.
Some 29% say they don’t know or would not vote. This suggests that The Voters Panel looks very reflective of the national picture and will be used in the coming days to dig much deeper into voters’ views.
Here are the words people used to described Rishi Sunak – the bigger they are, the more commonly used they were
The headlines, drawn from dozens of videos and written exercises by the panel of 2019 Tory voters since Friday, include:
• A despair at the state of public services. Katrin, who will vote anyone but Tory next time, says schools are “struggling”, the NHS is “underfunded” and needs a cash injection and the economy is “failing”.
Helen, who is unsure where to take her vote now, says: “I am quite worried about the state of the country at the moment. It’s not just me that I need to think about, I’ve also got two young children.”
Michael, who will stick with the Tories, says: “The government doesn’t seem willing to back down to the doctors to give them a decent pay rise.”
Michael says the government seems to be unwilling to give doctors a ‘decent pay rise’
• Concern about the cost of living isn’t matched by demands for tax cuts. Several of The Voters Panel have brought up the cost of living, and the pressures this brings, although there is an appreciation this is in part the consequence of COVID and the war in Ukraine – both out of the government’s control. However, this does not translate into spontaneous demands for tax cuts, beyond a tiny number of people already sticking with the Tories.
• There is a desire to punish the Tories. The anger felt towards the political chaos of recent years does not appear to have softened and was brought up spontaneously by a majority of panellists. Snezzana says the party she voted for in the last election is “destroying the country and the economy” and she will switch to Labour.
Snezzana says the Tories are “destroying the country and the economy” and she will switch to Labour.
Paul, who will switch to the Greens, won’t back the Tories again after the “chaos since Boris was in charge”. Jyoti will not vote Tory again “because Brexit and COVID were all disasters” and while more recently unlikely to back Labour, could go to either end of the political spectrum and back Reform or Lib Dem.
• There is uncertainty about Sir Keir Starmer and Labour. Emma, who doesn’t know how to vote next time, says: “Starmer is someone that sits on the fence quite a lot.” Tom – who says he will vote Labour – says Sir Keir has moved Labour to the centre but “is not a 100% sure on what their manifesto will contain”, adding: “Is he a capable leader? I don’t know, we’ll find out.”
• Sir Keir is “indecisive” and “unbelievable”. Mr Sunak “rich” “unelected and “untrustworthy”. The words used to describe the leaders of the two main parties are largely unforgiving by our participants. Mr Sunak is also weak, disconnected; though seen as competent and intelligent. Sir Keir is known to be a lawyer but “hypocrite” looms large.
• Some, but not many, key messages from the parties, are getting through. David, who is switching to Labour, is one of the few to acknowledge Sir Keir “from a not-as-well-off background. He’s had family problems”.
Paul, who is sticking with the Tories, mimicked Mr Sunak’s slogan by saying “My worry is now…. the Labour Party will get in and we’ll be back to square one” and says “we need to stick with them, see this plan through”.
David will switch to Labour
• Not everybody thinks it’s ‘time for a change’. After 14 years, a minority think that it is not time for a change. All three who suggest this are sticking with the Tories.
• Cut-through moments matter. Widely shared moments on social media are shaping perceptions. Paul, who will vote for the Greens, referenced the bet between Mr Sunak and Piers Morgan as evidence of Mr Sunak’s wealth, suggesting it means he is “obviously rich and I think that puts him a bit out of touch with people. The recent interview where he bet the interviewer a thousand pounds, was a bit not nice to see. Makes him out of touch, especially when people are going paycheck to paycheck”.
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The results of this community group – with so few directly switching Tory to Labour – may lead some Tory supporters to conclude that the next election is not lost, arguing Labour has not sealed the deal with the electorate. There are some glimmers of hope for the Tories. However, direct Tory-to-Labour switching may not be the decisive factor in the result.
The 1997 Labour landslide was driven, in part, by Tories staying at home rather than a surge of enthusiasm for Tony Blair.
Here is a similar so-called ‘word cloud’ for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer
In 1992, John Major got more votes than any leader at any election ever and a big drop in turnout – from 77.7% to 71.3% in 1997 – was a big part of Blair’s 179 majority. Jeremy Corbyn lost almost 3 million votes between 2017 and 2019, and that was instrumental in the Tory majority of 80.
This community group still suggests less than a third of Conservative voters would stick with the Tories in an upcoming election. This remains an existential challenge for the prime minister.
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The UK is ready to spend “well over” £100m on a possible deployment of British forces to Ukraine if Donald Trump secures a peace deal with Russia, the defence secretary has said.
John Healey also said Vladimir Putin views Britain as his “number one enemy” because of the country’s support for Ukraine.
The defence secretary’s plan includes the preparation of military personnel to join a multinational force that would be sent to help secure Ukraine’s borders if the US president brokers a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv.
He signalled British troops could be ready to deploy as soon as that happened and he said this could include soldiers on the ground.
Some of the anticipated money to prepare for any mission is already being spent.
The defence secretary also warned of a “new era of threat” and said the risk of wider conflict in Europe has not been as great since the end of the Second World War.
Mr Healey used a lecture at Mansion House in London to talk about efforts led by the UK and France to build a “coalition of the willing” of more than 30 nations to form what he called a “Multinational Force Ukraine” over the past six months.
At Mansion House this evening. Pic: PA
This force would help to secure Ukraine’s skies and seas and train its troops if Russia agrees to halt its full-scale war.
“So, as President Trump leads the push for peace here in Europe, we are ready to lead the work to secure it in the long-term,” the defence secretary said.
“For our Armed Forces, I am already reviewing readiness levels and accelerating millions of pounds of funding to prepare for any possible deployment into Ukraine.”
Asked how much money, he said it would be “well over” £100m.
British troops have been instrumental in the training of Ukrainian soliders throughout the conflict at camps like this one in East Anglia.Pic: PA
Mr Healey trumpeted the UK’s support for Ukraine, including a record £4.5bn in assistance this year, and taking over from the United States in co-chairing a wider group of nations that have been sending weapons and money to Kyiv.
“This is why President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy calls the UK his closest ally,” he said.
“This is why Putin ranks Britain as his number one enemy.”
But he warned that as Russia’s aggression grew in Ukraine and beyond its borders, “Britain and our NATO allies stand more unified, and stronger”.
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Vladimir Putin. Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
Giving a stark verdict of the security landscape, Mr Healey said: “This is – undeniably – a new era of threat. The world is more unstable, more uncertain, more dangerous. Not since the end of the Second World War has Europe’s security been at such risk of state-on-state conflict.”
He said this required what he described as “a new era for defence”.
He said: “This is now an age for hard power, strong alliances and sure diplomacy.”
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The defence secretary said plans for the new era would include increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 – though critics have accused the UK and other European allies of playing smoke and mirrors with the target, questioning how much will really be spent on weapons and troops.
“As I look ahead to the rest of this decade, our task, in this new age of hard power is to secure peace in our continent and to forge stronger deterrence and resilience, a New Deal for European security,” said Mr Healey.
Turning to the Middle East, he also announced the UK was sending a two-star military officer to work as the deputy to the US commander, charged with monitoring the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Politics
Govt to allow early release of thousands of rapists and violent criminals, Tories claim in sentencing row
The government will allow thousands of rapists, child sex offenders and other violent criminals to be released early from prison, the Conservatives claimed as a row over sentencing law reforms erupted.
Ahead of MPs debating the Sentencing Bill, introduced to tackle the growing prison population, on Tuesday, the Tories accused Labour of favouring criminals over victims and said the government’s approach is a “betrayal of victims”.
But Labour accused the Conservative Party of “rank hypocrisy” over prison overcrowding and the previous government’s early release policies.
The bill will restrict the use of short sentences and instead strengthen community punishments.
It will also include an “earned progression scheme”, which allows convicts who demonstrate good behaviour to be freed earlier, with enhanced supervision in the community followed by an unsupervised period on licence.
There will be a minimum release point of 33% for standard determinate sentences and a 50% minimum for more serious standard determinate sentences – as well as more tagging to monitor offenders in the community.
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The Tories claim the bill as it is would mean 85% (6,500) of the most serious jailed offenders could qualify for early release because they are serving standard sentences, while more than 83% of child sex offenders and 62% of convicted rapists would serve reduced sentences.
They have tabled an amendment to the bill to ensure a carve out for the most serious crimes, so those who commit assault by penetration, rape, grievous bodily harm, stalking and sexual offences against children cannot be released early.
Under Labour plans to abolish custodial sentences below 12 months, the Tories calculated up to 43,000 offenders could avoid jail altogether.
They said the bill could lead to permanent leniency in sentencing.
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Conservative shadow justice minister Dr Kieran Mullan said: “Labour’s early release plan is a betrayal of victims and a gift to rapists and paedophiles. Keir Starmer is putting criminals before communities and letting predators out early.
“Under Labour’s plans, thousands of the most serious and sickening offences imaginable would no longer be treated as such. What an insult to thousands of victims across the country.
“Anyone who vote for these plans will have to explain exactly why these crimes do not count among the most serious offences.
“The Conservatives will fight this moral rot every step of the way.”
Justice Secretary David Lammy at Belmarsh prison. Pic: PA
But sentencing minister Jake Richards accused the Tories of “rank hypocrisy” as he said the previous government took prisons to “breaking point”.
He said Labour are “cleaning up the mess” left by the Tories and accused them of “feigned outrage”.
“The Conservatives’ rank hypocrisy is shameful. They built this crisis, then feigned outrage when the consequences arrived,” he added.
“They took our prisons to breaking point, released thousands of serious offenders early and pushed Britain to the brink of a situation where police could no longer make arrests and courts could no longer prosecute.
“That would have been a total collapse of law and order.
“Now they attack us for cleaning up the mess they made. They are behaving like arsonists complaining the fire service couldn’t stop the flame.
“This Labour government believes in prison and in punishment that cuts crime.
“We’re delivering the biggest prison expansion since the Victorians, reforming sentencing to keep the public safe and building a justice system worthy of the name.”
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