Rishi Sunak struggling to maintain voter coalition that delivered 2019 victory, according to Sky News voter panel

Published

1 year ago

February 27, 2024

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Rishi Sunak is failing to hold together the voting coalition that delivered Boris Johnson a decisive victory in the 2019 general election, according to The Voters Panel on Sky News – launched today.

A profound unhappiness with the state of the country and exhaustion at years of Tory chaos means 2019 Tory voters will flock to at least four rival parties or stay at home at the next election.

Some describe themselves as swing voters, while others say they have backed the Tories all their lives, and this is the group Conservative headquarters and campaign chief Isaac Levido believes is key to the next election.

We found just over a fifth of Tory voters will switch directly to Labour and there is a grasp of what Labour stands for among participants in The Voters Panel, the Sky News-YouGov digital community group launched today reveals.

However, the depth of despair in the governing party means the relationship between the party and many voters has shattered and they are looking for a new home.

For the next two weeks, including through the budget next Wednesday, Sky News will be regularly interrogating The Voters Panel – an online group of at least 33 people from all corners of Great Britain.

Of the 33 submitting answers so far, nine say they will likely stick with the Conservatives, seven will go to Labour, five to Reform, two to the Lib Dems and one to Green.

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Eight say they aren’t sure, although three of these rule out voting Conservative. This echoes the latest polls.

The last YouGov voting poll suggested of those who voted Tory in 2019, 33% would stick with the party, 20% would switch to Reform, 13% to Labour, 3% to Lib Dem and 1% would go to the Green Party.

Some 29% say they don’t know or would not vote. This suggests that The Voters Panel looks very reflective of the national picture and will be used in the coming days to dig much deeper into voters’ views.

The headlines, drawn from dozens of videos and written exercises by the panel of 2019 Tory voters since Friday, include:

• A despair at the state of public services. Katrin, who will vote anyone but Tory next time, says schools are “struggling”, the NHS is “underfunded” and needs a cash injection and the economy is “failing”.

Helen, who is unsure where to take her vote now, says: “I am quite worried about the state of the country at the moment. It’s not just me that I need to think about, I’ve also got two young children.”

Michael, who will stick with the Tories, says: “The government doesn’t seem willing to back down to the doctors to give them a decent pay rise.”

• Concern about the cost of living isn’t matched by demands for tax cuts. Several of The Voters Panel have brought up the cost of living, and the pressures this brings, although there is an appreciation this is in part the consequence of COVID and the war in Ukraine – both out of the government’s control. However, this does not translate into spontaneous demands for tax cuts, beyond a tiny number of people already sticking with the Tories.

• There is a desire to punish the Tories. The anger felt towards the political chaos of recent years does not appear to have softened and was brought up spontaneously by a majority of panellists. Snezzana says the party she voted for in the last election is “destroying the country and the economy” and she will switch to Labour.

Paul, who will switch to the Greens, won’t back the Tories again after the “chaos since Boris was in charge”. Jyoti will not vote Tory again “because Brexit and COVID were all disasters” and while more recently unlikely to back Labour, could go to either end of the political spectrum and back Reform or Lib Dem.

• There is uncertainty about Sir Keir Starmer and Labour. Emma, who doesn’t know how to vote next time, says: “Starmer is someone that sits on the fence quite a lot.” Tom – who says he will vote Labour – says Sir Keir has moved Labour to the centre but “is not a 100% sure on what their manifesto will contain”, adding: “Is he a capable leader? I don’t know, we’ll find out.”

• Sir Keir is “indecisive” and “unbelievable”. Mr Sunak “rich” “unelected and “untrustworthy”. The words used to describe the leaders of the two main parties are largely unforgiving by our participants. Mr Sunak is also weak, disconnected; though seen as competent and intelligent. Sir Keir is known to be a lawyer but “hypocrite” looms large.

• Some, but not many, key messages from the parties, are getting through. David, who is switching to Labour, is one of the few to acknowledge Sir Keir “from a not-as-well-off background. He’s had family problems”.

Paul, who is sticking with the Tories, mimicked Mr Sunak’s slogan by saying “My worry is now…. the Labour Party will get in and we’ll be back to square one” and says “we need to stick with them, see this plan through”.

• Not everybody thinks it’s ‘time for a change’. After 14 years, a minority think that it is not time for a change. All three who suggest this are sticking with the Tories.

• Cut-through moments matter. Widely shared moments on social media are shaping perceptions. Paul, who will vote for the Greens, referenced the bet between Mr Sunak and Piers Morgan as evidence of Mr Sunak’s wealth, suggesting it means he is “obviously rich and I think that puts him a bit out of touch with people. The recent interview where he bet the interviewer a thousand pounds, was a bit not nice to see. Makes him out of touch, especially when people are going paycheck to paycheck”.

The results of this community group – with so few directly switching Tory to Labour – may lead some Tory supporters to conclude that the next election is not lost, arguing Labour has not sealed the deal with the electorate. There are some glimmers of hope for the Tories. However, direct Tory-to-Labour switching may not be the decisive factor in the result.

The 1997 Labour landslide was driven, in part, by Tories staying at home rather than a surge of enthusiasm for Tony Blair.

In 1992, John Major got more votes than any leader at any election ever and a big drop in turnout – from 77.7% to 71.3% in 1997 – was a big part of Blair’s 179 majority. Jeremy Corbyn lost almost 3 million votes between 2017 and 2019, and that was instrumental in the Tory majority of 80.

This community group still suggests less than a third of Conservative voters would stick with the Tories in an upcoming election. This remains an existential challenge for the prime minister.

Politics

A16z Crypto and advocacy group call for NFT, DeFi app safe harbor at SEC

Published

6 hours ago

August 13, 2025

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A16z Crypto and advocacy group call for NFT, DeFi app safe harbor at SEC

The two entities requested that the financial regulator provide a “safe harbor” for certain applications under the SEC’s broker-dealer registration requirements.

Politics

Labour MP Tulip Siddiq hits out at ‘farce’ anti-corruption trial in Bangladesh

Published

13 hours ago

August 13, 2025

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Labour MP Tulip Siddiq hits out at 'farce' anti-corruption trial in Bangladesh

Labour MP Tulip Siddiq has called her anti-corruption trial a “farce” which is “driven by a clear political agenda” as proceedings began on Wednesday in Bangladesh.

In a statement seen by Sky News, Ms Siddiq has said the case was “built on fabricated accusations”.

Ms Siddiq was formerly the UK government’s anti-corruption minister but stood down over accusations she illegally received a plot of land in a new high-end development on the outskirts of Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital.

This came after her aunt, Sheikh Hasina, was ousted as prime minister last year and replaced by the current government.

Hundreds of protesters were killed during the uprising and Ms Hasina now faces charges including crimes against humanity.

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Ms Siddiq previously denied all the allegations against her through lawyers, saying the prosecution is politically motivated.

Bangladesh’s Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) claims the Labour MP received a 7,200-square-foot plot in a diplomatic zone through “abuse of power and influence”.

The trial in Dhaka began in the early hours of UK time, with Ms Siddiq on trial alongside her mother and siblings. The family are being tried in absentia as they have not returned to Bangladesh for the proceedings.

The court opened with ACC prosecutors laying out the case against Ms Siddiq.

In her statement, Ms Siddiq said: “The so-called trial now under way in Dhaka is nothing more than a farce, built on fabricated accusations and driven by a clear political vendetta.

“Over the past year, the allegations against me have repeatedly shifted, yet I have never been contacted by the Bangladeshi authorities once. I have never received a court summons, no official communication, and no evidence.

“If this were a genuine legal process, the authorities would have engaged with me or my legal team, responded to our formal correspondence, and presented the evidence they claim to hold.

“Instead, they have peddled false and vexatious allegations that have been briefed to the media but never formally put to me by investigators.

“Even my offer to meet Bangladesh’s chief adviser Muhammad Yunus during his recent visit to London was refused. Such conduct is wholly incompatible with the principles of a fair trial that we uphold in the UK.

“I have been clear from the outset that I have done nothing wrong and will respond to any credible evidence that is presented to me. Continuing to smear my name to score political points is both baseless and damaging.”

Sky News has contacted the Bangladesh authorities for a response.

A separate anti-corruption allegation into Ms Siddiq’s family has also been launched, with allegations they were involved in brokering a 2013 deal with Russia for a nuclear power plant in Bangladesh, in which large sums of money were said to have been embezzled.

Ms Siddiq’s aunt, Ms Hasina, was ousted last year following student protests, having been in power for more than a decade. She has since fled to India.

Hundreds of protesters were killed during the uprising and Ms Hasina now faces charges including crimes against humanity.

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Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus took over as interim leader and vowed to prosecute Ms Hasina.

Allegations have also been made about Ms Siddiq and a house she rents in North London, which is owned by a businessman reportedly linked to Ms Hasina’s Awami League Party.

Politics

What is former minister Tulip Siddiq on trial for in Bangladesh?

Published

13 hours ago

August 13, 2025

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What is former minister Tulip Siddiq on trial for in Bangladesh?

Former minister Tulip Siddiq has found herself in the spotlight again as she faces a corruption trial in Bangladesh.

The former anti-corruption minister’s trial is expected to begin on Wednesday, but she will not be there.

A wider trial began on Monday after 27 people were indicted last week by Bangladeshi courts. They include Ms Siddiq, her aunt, other family members, and current and former officials.

Ms Siddiq resigned from her Treasury job in the UK on 14 January after facing calls to step down over links to her aunt, the ousted former Bangladesh prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, who is being investigated by Bangladesh’s anti-corruption commission.

Sir Keir Starmer’s ethics watchdog found the MP, who was born in London, had not breached the ministerial code, but told the PM: “You will want to consider her ongoing responsibilities.”

The 42-year-old MP for Hampstead and Highgate insists she has done nothing wrong and denies all the claims.

Sky News takes a look at the allegation behind the court case.

What is the allegation against Tulip Siddiq?

The current trial relates to just one of those claims – that she illegally allocated 7,200 sq ft of land to her family.

However, Ms Siddiq said she has not been informed of the specific charges she is facing or received a summons to appear.

An arrest warrant for Ms Siddiq was issued by Bangladesh in April, with the MP saying she only became aware of it when it was reported in the media.

Bangladesh’s anti-corruption commission alleges Ms Siddiq was involved in the illegal allocation of plots of land in the diplomatic zone of a luxury development in Purbachal near Dhaka to her mother, sister and brother.

An affidavit, seen by Sky News, states that while serving as a British MP, she “exerted pressure and influence” on her aunt to get planning officials to appoint them the land.

Investigators claim planning officials were bribed and pressured into fraudulently allocating the land.

Bangladesh prosecutor Mir Ahmed Ali Salam said if Ms Siddiq is found guilty, Bangladeshi authorities could submit an Interpol Red Notice, which alerts law enforcement around the world to surrender a person to a certain country.

The UK and Bangladesh do not have a formal extradition treaty – but extradition is still possible through a request that is decided by the home secretary.

What has Tulip Siddiq said?

About the Bangladesh trial:

Ms Siddiq has denied all the allegations and sees the trial as a politically motivated smear campaign, calling it “targeted and baseless”.

She told The Guardian she is “collateral damage” of a “feud between Muhammad Yunus and my aunt”.

“These are wider forces that I’m battling against. There’s no doubt people have done wrong things in Bangladesh, and they should be punished for it. It’s just I’m not one of them,” she added.

“I feel a bit like I’m trapped in this Kafkaesque nightmare where I’ve been put on trial and I genuinely haven’t found out what the allegations are and what the trial is about.”

Sky News understands her lawyer requested to attend the trial in Bangladesh on her behalf but was denied access.

We also understand the Bangladeshi authorities did not tell Ms Siddiq of a date change for the trial, and she only found out when Sky News contacted her lawyer about it.

In June, Ms Siddiq accused Professor Yunus of conducting an “orchestrated campaign” to damage her reputation and “interfere with UK politics”.

In a legal letter seen by Sky News in June, the MP also said comments made by Professor Yunus in a Sky News interview have prejudiced her right to a fair investigation, meaning the corruption inquiries should be dropped.

Ms Siddiq has also denied brokering a deal with Russia for the nuclear power plant and reportedly told a UK government official she was the target of a “political hit job”.

She also said: “I’m not here to defend my aunt.”

About her resignation:

Sir Keir said on 6 January that Ms Siddiq had referred herself to his independent adviser on ministerial standards, Sir Laurie Magnus.

She had been due to join a delegation heading to China with Chancellor Rachel Reeves, but remained in the UK to clear her name.

In her letter to Sir Laurie, she said: “In recent weeks, I have been the subject of media reporting, much of it inaccurate, about my financial affairs and my family’s links to the former government of Bangladesh.

“I am clear that I have done nothing wrong.

“However, for the avoidance of doubt, I would like you to independently establish the facts about these matters.

“I will obviously ensure you have all the information you need to do this.”

Announcing her resignation, Ms Siddiq said an independent review “has confirmed that I have not breached the ministerial code and there is no evidence to suggest I have acted improperly”.

“Nonetheless, to avoid distraction for the government, I have resigned as city minister,” she added.

The MP has previously said she and her aunt never spoke about politics.

However, Sky News discovered blog posts she wrote in 2008 and 2009, when she was a Labour activist, describing campaigning with her aunt in Bangladesh’s general election and celebrating her victory.

The Times also reported that the MP’s Labour Party flyers and a thank you note to local Labour Party members after she was elected as an MP were found in the palace in Dhaka that belonged to her aunt.

Who is Sheikh Hasina?

Sheikh Hasina was Bangladesh’s prime minister for 20 years – the world’s longest-serving female head of government – but in August was deposed following a mass uprising after elections widely criticised as being fraudulent.

Her premiership was marked by rampant corruption, with Ms Hasina being detained on extortion charges and serving jail time.

Human Rights Watch has said it documented widespread enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings during her time in power.

But the 77-year-old was also praised for giving nearly a million Rohingya fleeing genocide in Myanmar refuge and assistance in 2017.

Following last summer’s uprising, she fled to India, where she is in self-imposed exile, and is facing an investigation by Bangladesh’s anti-corruption commission.

Most of Ms Hasina’s family were assassinated in 1975 during a coup d’etat but she, her husband and sister, Sheikh Rehana – Ms Siddiq’s mother – were in Europe at the time. They were offered political asylum by the then Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi and lived in Delhi for six years before returning home in 1981 with Ms Hasani as president of the Awami League party.

Ms Siddiq’s mother lived in exile in the UK during the 1980s and in 2016 was made a local councillor representing the Awami League in Dhaka. Her son, Ms Hasina’s son and daughter, are also councillors there.

Ms Hasina remains in India and will be tried in absentia over allegations of crimes against humanity.

How have Labour reacted?

Sir Keir said Ms Siddiq “acted entirely properly” by referring herself to the ethics watchdog to “establish the facts”, and added he had “confidence in her”.

On receiving her resignation letter, Sir Keir said he accepted it “with sadness”, adding: “I also wish to be clear that Sir Laurie Magnus as Independent Adviser has assured me he found no breach of the ministerial code and no evidence of financial improprieties on your part.”

He praised her for making the “difficult decision” to resign nonetheless and said “the door remains open for you” going forward.

Wycombe MP Emma Reynolds replaced Ms Siddiq as a minister, while Torsten Bell took up Ms Reynolds’ role in the Department for Work and Pensions.

What have the Conservatives said?

Ahead of Ms Siddiq’s resignation, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch called for Sir Keir to sack Ms Siddiq, adding: “He appointed his personal friend as anti-corruption minister and she is accused herself of corruption.

“Now the government of Bangladesh is raising serious concerns about her links to the regime of Sheikh Hasina.”

When the Labour MP resigned, Ms Badenoch accused Sir Keir of “dither and delay to protect his close friend”, saying it had become clear over the weekend her position “was completely untenable”.

How has Bangladesh reacted?

Bangladesh’s anti-money laundering agency asked the country’s banks for details of accounts and transactions linked to Ms Siddiq, her aunt, mother, her brother and cousins.

Her allies insist she has no bank accounts outside the UK, and her spokesperson said she has not been contacted by the Bangladeshi authorities.

Nobel peace-prize winning economist Muhammad Yunus, who is leading Bangladesh’s interim government, said the London properties used by Ms Siddiq should be investigated and returned if she is found to have benefited from “plain robbery”.

Following her resignation, Professor Yunus said there will be a thorough investigation into properties and assets “tied to stolen Bangladeshi funds, including those linked to individuals with connections to the previous regime” and if it is proven they have benefited from embezzlement “we expect those assets to be returned to Bangladesh, where they rightfully belong”.

“Tulip Siddiq may not have entirely understood the source of the money and property that she was enjoying in London, but she knows now and should seek forgiveness from the people of Bangladesh,” he added.