Rishi Sunak is failing to hold together the voting coalition that delivered Boris Johnson a decisive victory in the 2019 general election, according to The Voters Panel on Sky News – launched today.
A profound unhappiness with the state of the country and exhaustion at years of Tory chaos means 2019 Tory voters will flock to at least four rival parties or stay at home at the next election.
Some describe themselves as swing voters, while others say they have backed the Tories all their lives, and this is the group Conservative headquarters and campaign chief Isaac Levido believes is key to the next election.
We found just over a fifth of Tory voters will switch directly to Labour and there is a grasp of what Labour stands for among participants in The Voters Panel, the Sky News-YouGov digital community group launched today reveals.
Image: Pic: PA
However, the depth of despair in the governing party means the relationship between the party and many voters has shattered and they are looking for a new home.
For the next two weeks, including through the budget next Wednesday, Sky News will be regularly interrogating The Voters Panel – an online group of at least 33 people from all corners of Great Britain.
Of the 33 submitting answers so far, nine say they will likely stick with the Conservatives, seven will go to Labour, five to Reform, two to the Lib Dems and one to Green.
Eight say they aren’t sure, although three of these rule out voting Conservative. This echoes the latest polls.
Advertisement
The last YouGov voting poll suggested of those who voted Tory in 2019, 33% would stick with the party, 20% would switch to Reform, 13% to Labour, 3% to Lib Dem and 1% would go to the Green Party.
Some 29% say they don’t know or would not vote. This suggests that The Voters Panel looks very reflective of the national picture and will be used in the coming days to dig much deeper into voters’ views.
Image: Here are the words people used to described Rishi Sunak – the bigger they are, the more commonly used they were
The headlines, drawn from dozens of videos and written exercises by the panel of 2019 Tory voters since Friday, include:
• A despair at the state of public services. Katrin, who will vote anyone but Tory next time, says schools are “struggling”, the NHS is “underfunded” and needs a cash injection and the economy is “failing”.
Helen, who is unsure where to take her vote now, says: “I am quite worried about the state of the country at the moment. It’s not just me that I need to think about, I’ve also got two young children.”
Michael, who will stick with the Tories, says: “The government doesn’t seem willing to back down to the doctors to give them a decent pay rise.”
Image: Michael says the government seems to be unwilling to give doctors a ‘decent pay rise’
• Concern about the cost of living isn’t matched by demands for tax cuts. Several of The Voters Panel have brought up the cost of living, and the pressures this brings, although there is an appreciation this is in part the consequence of COVID and the war in Ukraine – both out of the government’s control. However, this does not translate into spontaneous demands for tax cuts, beyond a tiny number of people already sticking with the Tories.
• There is a desire to punish the Tories. The anger felt towards the political chaos of recent years does not appear to have softened and was brought up spontaneously by a majority of panellists. Snezzana says the party she voted for in the last election is “destroying the country and the economy” and she will switch to Labour.
Image: Snezzana says the Tories are “destroying the country and the economy” and she will switch to Labour.
Paul, who will switch to the Greens, won’t back the Tories again after the “chaos since Boris was in charge”. Jyoti will not vote Tory again “because Brexit and COVID were all disasters” and while more recently unlikely to back Labour, could go to either end of the political spectrum and back Reform or Lib Dem.
• There is uncertainty about Sir Keir Starmer and Labour. Emma, who doesn’t know how to vote next time, says: “Starmer is someone that sits on the fence quite a lot.” Tom – who says he will vote Labour – says Sir Keir has moved Labour to the centre but “is not a 100% sure on what their manifesto will contain”, adding: “Is he a capable leader? I don’t know, we’ll find out.”
• Sir Keir is “indecisive” and “unbelievable”. Mr Sunak “rich” “unelected and “untrustworthy”. The words used to describe the leaders of the two main parties are largely unforgiving by our participants. Mr Sunak is also weak, disconnected; though seen as competent and intelligent. Sir Keir is known to be a lawyer but “hypocrite” looms large.
• Some, but not many, key messages from the parties, are getting through. David, who is switching to Labour, is one of the few to acknowledge Sir Keir “from a not-as-well-off background. He’s had family problems”.
Paul, who is sticking with the Tories, mimicked Mr Sunak’s slogan by saying “My worry is now…. the Labour Party will get in and we’ll be back to square one” and says “we need to stick with them, see this plan through”.
Image: David will switch to Labour
• Not everybody thinks it’s ‘time for a change’. After 14 years, a minority think that it is not time for a change. All three who suggest this are sticking with the Tories.
• Cut-through moments matter. Widely shared moments on social media are shaping perceptions. Paul, who will vote for the Greens, referenced the bet between Mr Sunak and Piers Morgan as evidence of Mr Sunak’s wealth, suggesting it means he is “obviously rich and I think that puts him a bit out of touch with people. The recent interview where he bet the interviewer a thousand pounds, was a bit not nice to see. Makes him out of touch, especially when people are going paycheck to paycheck”.
The results of this community group – with so few directly switching Tory to Labour – may lead some Tory supporters to conclude that the next election is not lost, arguing Labour has not sealed the deal with the electorate. There are some glimmers of hope for the Tories. However, direct Tory-to-Labour switching may not be the decisive factor in the result.
The 1997 Labour landslide was driven, in part, by Tories staying at home rather than a surge of enthusiasm for Tony Blair.
Image: Here is a similar so-called ‘word cloud’ for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer
In 1992, John Major got more votes than any leader at any election ever and a big drop in turnout – from 77.7% to 71.3% in 1997 – was a big part of Blair’s 179 majority. Jeremy Corbyn lost almost 3 million votes between 2017 and 2019, and that was instrumental in the Tory majority of 80.
This community group still suggests less than a third of Conservative voters would stick with the Tories in an upcoming election. This remains an existential challenge for the prime minister.
Young people could lose their right to universal credit if they refuse to engage with help from a new scheme without good reason, the government has warned.
Almost one million will gain from plans to get them off benefits and into the workforce, according to officials.
It comes as the number of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) has risen by more than a quarter since the COVID pandemic, with around 940,000 16 to 24-year-olds considered as NEET as of September this year, said the Office for National Statistics.
That is an increase of 195,000 in the last two years, mainly driven by increasing sickness and disability rates.
The £820m package includes funding to create 350,000 new workplace opportunities, including training and work experience, which will be offered in industries including construction, hospitality and healthcare.
Around 900,000 people on universal credit will be given a “dedicated work support session”.
That will be followed by four weeks of “intensive support” to help them find work in one of up to six “pathways”, which are: work, work experience, apprenticeships, wider training, learning, or a workplace training programme with a guaranteed interview at the end.
However, Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden has warned that young people could lose some of their benefits if they refuse to engage with the scheme without good reason.
The government says these pathways will be delivered in coordination with employers, while government-backed guaranteed jobs will be provided for up to 55,000 young people from spring 2026, but only in those areas with the highest need.
However, shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately, from the Conservatives, said the scheme is “an admission the government has no plan for growth, no plan to create real jobs, and no way of measuring whether any of this money delivers results”.
She told Sky News the proposals are a “classic Labour approach” for tackling youth unemployment.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
7:57
Youth jobs plan ‘the wrong answer’
“What we’ve seen today announced by the government is funding the best part of £1bn on work placements, and government-created jobs for young people. That sounds all very well,” she told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.
“But the fact is, and that’s the absurdity of it is, just two weeks ago, we had a budget from the chancellor, which is expected to destroy 200,000 jobs.
“So the problem we have here is a government whose policies are destroying jobs, destroying opportunities for young people, now saying they’re going to spend taxpayers’ money on creating work placements. It’s just simply the wrong answer.”
Ms Whately also said the government needs to tackle people who are unmotivated to work at all, and agreed with Mr McFadden on taking away the right to universal credit if they refuse opportunities to work.
But she said the “main reason” young people are out of work is because “they’re moving on to sickness benefits”.
Ms Whately also pointed to the government’s diminished attempt to slash benefits earlier in the year, where planned welfare cuts were significantly scaled down after opposition from their own MPs.
The funding will also expand youth hubs to help provide advice on writing CVs or seeking training, and also provide housing and mental health support.
Some £34m from the funding will be used to launch a new “Risk of NEET indicator tool”, aimed at identifying those young people who need support before they leave education and become unemployed.
Monitoring of attendance in further education will be bolstered, and automatic enrolment in further education will also be piloted for young people without a place.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is heading to Downing Street once again, but Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will be keen to make this meeting more than just a photo op.
On Monday the PM will welcome not only the Ukrainian president, but also E3 allies France and Germany to discuss the state of the war in Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will join Sir Keir in showing solidarity and support for Ukraine and its leader, but it’s the update on the peace negotiations that will be the main focus of the meet up.
The four leaders are said to be set to not only discuss those talks between Ukraine, the US and Russia, but also to talk about next steps if a deal were to be reached and what that might look like.
Ahead of the discussions, Sir Keir spoke with the Dutch leader Dick Schoof where both leaders agreed Ukraine’s defence still needs international support, and that Ukraine’s security is vital to European security.
But while Russia’s war machine shows no signs of abating, a warm welcome and kind words won’t be enough to satisfy the embattled Ukrainian president at a time when Russian drone and missile attacks continue to bombard Kyiv.
“The American representatives know the basic Ukrainian positions,” Mr Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address. “The conversation was constructive, although not easy.”
Meanwhile, Mr Trump’s outgoing Ukraine envoy has said a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is “really close”.
Keith Kellogg, who is due to step down in January, told the Reagan National Defence Forum that efforts to resolve the conflict were in “the last 10 metres”, which he said were always the hardest.
Mr Kellogg pinpointed the future of the Donbas and Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as the two main outstanding issues.
But Russia has signalled that “radical changes” are needed to the US-Ukraine peace plan before it is acceptable to Moscow.
Yuri Ushakov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy aide, was quoted by Russian media as saying the US would have to “make serious, I would say, radical changes to their papers” on Ukraine.
Reform UK has denied claims of Nigel Farage breaking electoral law.
It follows a report in Monday’s The Daily Telegraph that Mr Farage has been referred to the police by a former member of his campaign team over claims he falsified election expenses.
The claims relate to Mr Farage’s campaign in Clacton-on-Sea, the seat he won for Reform UK in the 2024 General Election.
In a statement, a Reform UK spokesperson said: “These inaccurate claims come from a disgruntled former councillor… the party denies breaking electoral law. We look forward to clearing our name.”
According to the Telegraph, the claims have been made by Richard Everett, a former Reform councillor.
It is reported by the Telegraph that Mr Everett has submitted documents to the Metropolitan Police.
Mr Everett was one of four councillors who defected from the Conservatives to Reform UK on the eve of the 2024 General Election campaign.
Sky News has not verified the allegations and the Metropolitan Police and the Electoral Commission are yet to comment.
Both Labour and the Conservatives have called for answers from Mr Farage.