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When the UK sizzles during an intense summer heatwave it could well be linked to melting ice caps and glaciers in the frozen North, according to a new analysis.

While increased melting due to climate change could make such events even more extreme, the connection may also make heatwaves possible to predict up to a year in advance, the study finds.

“We will be able to estimate the exact year of the warm and dry summer in northern Europe more closely in the winter before it occurs,” says Dr Marliena Oltmanns at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton who led the research.

Such a forecasting ability could be significant, allowing farmers, hospitals, or power providers time to plan for heatwaves that are already becoming more extreme due to increasing global average temperatures.

Researchers have suspected for a while that there is a link between weather extremes in northern Europe and the intense summer melting in the Arctic and subarctic due to climate change – but how they might be connected remained elusive.

People enjoying the hot weather on Bournemouth beach after temperatures topped 40C in the UK for the first time ever. Picture date: Wednesday July 20, 2022.
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Bournemouth beach after temperatures topped 40C in 2022. Pic: PA

The new study looks at the influence of billions of tonnes of cold, fresh meltwater from ice caps and glaciers on the North Atlantic current and the position of the jet stream high in the atmosphere.

In summer, melting can lead to major differences in where warm tropical water carried by the North Atlantic current meets cold water. This in turn impacts weather systems that can induce a “kink” in the jet stream above.

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The powerful jet stream is a major influence on how weather systems move over Europe. When it’s “kinked” the result is usually high pressure and hot air from southern Europe and Africa sitting over the UK.

This was exactly the situation that preceded heatwaves in the UK in 2018 and in 2022 when temperatures breached 40C in the UK for the first time on record – an event believed to have caused nearly 3,000 excess deaths.

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Why is it so hot in the UK?

The research also casts doubt on the significance of recent headlines warning of a “shutdown” of a slower North Atlantic ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Oscillation – often misnamed the Gulf Stream.

Reports suggested the slowing of this current could plunge places like the UK into continual cold, Arctic-like weather.

But the short-term influence of ocean temperatures on the jet stream – which plays a far bigger role in dictating weather patterns – is likely to overwhelm any impact this slow-moving ocean current has on weather, argues Dr Oltmanns.

“Where does the wind come from – that’s what has the greatest impact on society,” she says.

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What does the current situation in the North Atlantic say about this coming summer?

An extreme ocean heatwave in 2023 makes it less likely we’ll expect a “kinked” jet stream and therefore an extreme heatwave says Dr Oltmanns.

So don’t rush out and buy a new barbeque just yet…

But perhaps consider where you want to go on holiday.

The current situation does increase the likelihood that southern Europe will endure another summer of intense heat like we saw in 2023 – a heatwave that led to widespread wildfires and drought.

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Starmer urges anyone with information on Epstein case to come forward – after Andrew misses Congress deadline

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Starmer urges anyone with information on Epstein case to come forward - after Andrew misses Congress deadline

Sir Keir Starmer has urged anyone with information on the Jeffrey Epstein case to come forward after Andrew Mountbatten Windsor missed the deadline to appear in front of US Congress.

US legislators have criticised Andrew for what they describe as “silence” amid their probe into Epstein after he failed to respond to their request for an interview.

When asked about Andrew missing the deadline and whether the former prince should help the case in any way he can, Sir Keir said on his way to the G20 summit in South Africa: “I don’t comment on this particular case.”

He added that “a general principle I’ve held for a very long time is that anybody who has got relevant information in relation to these kind of cases should give that evidence to those that need it”.

Andrew is not legally obliged to talk to Congress and has always vigorously denied any wrongdoing.

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Sir Keir Starmer spoke to reporters on his way to the G20 in South Africa. Pic: Reuters
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Sir Keir Starmer spoke to reporters on his way to the G20 in South Africa. Pic: Reuters

It comes as Marjorie Taylor Greene, a loyal supporter-turned-critic of US President Donald Trump, said on Friday she is resigning from Congress in January.

Ms Greene’s resignation followed a public falling-out with Mr Trump in recent months, as the congresswoman criticised him for his stance on files related to Epstein, as well as on foreign policy and healthcare.

Members of the House Oversight Committee had requested a “transcribed interview” with Andrew in connection with his “long-standing friendship” with Epstein, the paedophile financier who took his own life in a New York prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking and conspiracy charges.

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Releasing the Epstein files: How we got here

But after saying they had not heard back, Democrats Robert Garcia and Suhas Subramanyam accused Andrew of hiding.

Their statement read: “Andrew Mountbatten Windsor’s silence in the face of the Oversight Democrat’s demand for testimony speaks volumes.

“The documents we’ve reviewed, along with public records and Virginia Roberts Giuffre’s testimony, raise serious questions he must answer, yet he continues to hide.

“Our work will move forward with or without him, and we will hold anyone who was involved in these crimes accountable, no matter their wealth, status, or political party. We will get justice for the survivors.”

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The new Epstein files: The key takeaways

It follows Andrew being stripped of his prince and Duke of York titles earlier this month.

He had previously agreed to stop using his titles, but had expected to remain a prince and retain his dukedom, ahead of the publication of the memoirs of the late Ms Giuffre, who had accused him of sexually assaulting her when she was a teenager – an accusation he denies.

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Girl, 13, arrested on suspicion of murdering woman in Swindon

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Girl, 13, arrested on suspicion of murdering woman in Swindon

A 13-year-old girl has been arrested on suspicion of murdering a woman in Swindon.

Police said the teenager was detained following an incident in Baydon Close, Moredon, in the Wiltshire town on Friday evening.

Officers responded to reports of disorder inside a house. When they arrived, a woman in her 50s living at the address was found to be not breathing. She was declared dead at the scene.

There were no other reported injuries.

Forensic officers are at the scene to collect evidence
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Forensic officers are at the scene to collect evidence

Detective Inspector Darren Ambrose, from Wiltshire Police’s major crime investigation team, said: “This is a serious incident in which a woman has sadly died.

“We have set up a cordon at the address while an investigation is carried out.

“I can confirm that we have arrested a teenage girl in connection with this incident and we are not looking for anyone else.”

Police have asked people not to speculate about the incident online as this could prejudice the case.

A police statement read: “Residents can expect to see an increased police presence in the area while we continue carrying out our enquiries into the woman’s death.

“The suspect remains in custody at this time.”

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Police said anyone with concerns should speak with their local neighbourhood policing team, either by emailing or approaching officers in person.

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Rail fares to be frozen for first time in 30 years

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Rail fares to be frozen for first time in 30 years

Rail fares are to be frozen for the first time in 30 years, the government has announced.

Ministers promised that millions of rail travellers will save hundreds of pounds on regulated fares, including season tickets and peak and off-peak returns between major cities.

The fare freeze applies to England and services run by English train operators.

People commuting to work three days a week using flexi-season tickets will save £315 a year travelling from Milton Keynes to London, £173 travelling from Woking to London and £57 from Bradford to Leeds, the government said.

The changes are part of Labour’s plans to rebuild a publicly owned Great British Railways. Other planned changes include tap in-tap out and digital ticketing, as well as investing in superfast Wi-Fi.

The freeze applies to regulated fares, including season tickets and peak and off-peak returns. Pic: iStock
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The freeze applies to regulated fares, including season tickets and peak and off-peak returns. Pic: iStock

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government was introducing a freeze on rail fares for the first time in 30 years, which “will ease the pressure on household finances and make travelling to work, school or to visit friends and family that bit easier”.

“We all want to see cheaper rail travel, so we’re freezing fares to help millions of passengers save money,” Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said.

“Commuters on more expensive routes will save more than £300 per year, meaning they keep more of their hard-earned cash.”

Rail unions and passenger groups welcomed the move, praising how it will make travel more affordable for passengers and promote more sustainable travel alternatives.

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Eddie Dempsey, general secretary of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union, said: “More affordable fares will encourage greater use of public transport, supporting jobs, giving a shot in the arm to local economies and helping to improve the environment.”

TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said the rail fare freeze “will be a huge relief to working people”.

“This is the right decision, at the right time, to help passengers be able to afford to make that journey they need to take, and to help grow our railway in this country, because the railway is Britain’s green alternative – taking cars and lorries off our congested roads and moving people and goods safely around our country in an environmentally-friendly way,” Mick Whelan, general secretary of the train drivers union Aslef, said.

The Tories welcomed the move but said the government was “late to the platform”.

Shadow transport secretary Richard Holden said: “In government, the Conservatives kept fares on the right track with below-inflation rises and consistently called for no further hikes to protect hard-working commuters.”

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