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When the UK sizzles during an intense summer heatwave it could well be linked to melting ice caps and glaciers in the frozen North, according to a new analysis.

While increased melting due to climate change could make such events even more extreme, the connection may also make heatwaves possible to predict up to a year in advance, the study finds.

“We will be able to estimate the exact year of the warm and dry summer in northern Europe more closely in the winter before it occurs,” says Dr Marliena Oltmanns at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton who led the research.

Such a forecasting ability could be significant, allowing farmers, hospitals, or power providers time to plan for heatwaves that are already becoming more extreme due to increasing global average temperatures.

Researchers have suspected for a while that there is a link between weather extremes in northern Europe and the intense summer melting in the Arctic and subarctic due to climate change – but how they might be connected remained elusive.

People enjoying the hot weather on Bournemouth beach after temperatures topped 40C in the UK for the first time ever. Picture date: Wednesday July 20, 2022.
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Bournemouth beach after temperatures topped 40C in 2022. Pic: PA

The new study looks at the influence of billions of tonnes of cold, fresh meltwater from ice caps and glaciers on the North Atlantic current and the position of the jet stream high in the atmosphere.

In summer, melting can lead to major differences in where warm tropical water carried by the North Atlantic current meets cold water. This in turn impacts weather systems that can induce a “kink” in the jet stream above.

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The powerful jet stream is a major influence on how weather systems move over Europe. When it’s “kinked” the result is usually high pressure and hot air from southern Europe and Africa sitting over the UK.

This was exactly the situation that preceded heatwaves in the UK in 2018 and in 2022 when temperatures breached 40C in the UK for the first time on record – an event believed to have caused nearly 3,000 excess deaths.

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Why is it so hot in the UK?

The research also casts doubt on the significance of recent headlines warning of a “shutdown” of a slower North Atlantic ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Oscillation – often misnamed the Gulf Stream.

Reports suggested the slowing of this current could plunge places like the UK into continual cold, Arctic-like weather.

But the short-term influence of ocean temperatures on the jet stream – which plays a far bigger role in dictating weather patterns – is likely to overwhelm any impact this slow-moving ocean current has on weather, argues Dr Oltmanns.

“Where does the wind come from – that’s what has the greatest impact on society,” she says.

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What does the current situation in the North Atlantic say about this coming summer?

An extreme ocean heatwave in 2023 makes it less likely we’ll expect a “kinked” jet stream and therefore an extreme heatwave says Dr Oltmanns.

So don’t rush out and buy a new barbeque just yet…

But perhaps consider where you want to go on holiday.

The current situation does increase the likelihood that southern Europe will endure another summer of intense heat like we saw in 2023 – a heatwave that led to widespread wildfires and drought.

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Egypt: Two Britons believed to be among 16 missing as tourist boat sinks after being ‘hit by large wave’

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Egypt: Two Britons believed to be among 16 missing as tourist boat sinks after being 'hit by large wave'

Two Britons are believed to be among more than a dozen people missing after a boat sank in the Red Sea off the Egyptian coast.

The yacht, called Sea Story, had 44 people on board, including 31 tourists of varying nationalities and 13 crew.

Authorities are searching for 16 people, including 12 foreign nationals and four Egyptians, the governor of the Red Sea region said, adding that 28 other people had been rescued.

Preliminary reports suggested a sudden large wave struck the vessel, capsizing it within about five minutes, governor Amr Hanafi said.

“Some passengers were in their cabins, which is why they were unable to escape,” he added in a statement.

Pic: STR/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

More than dozen missing after tourist boat sinks off Red Sea in Egypt, Marsa Alam - 25 Nov 2024
Survivors of the sinking boat rest at a harbor in Marsa Alam, Red Sea Governorate, in Egypt 25 Novermber 2024.
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Survivors rescued from the Sea Story in Marsa Alam. Pic: STR/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

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Passengers rescued from sunken tourist boat

The people who were rescued only suffered minor injuries such as bruises and scrapes with none needing hospital treatment.

A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development office spokesperson said: “We are providing consular support to a number of British nationals and their families following an incident in Egypt and are in contact with the local authorities.”

The foreign nationals aboard the 34-metre-long vessel, owned by an Egyptian national, included Americans, Belgians, British, Chinese, Finns, Germans, Irish, Poles, Slovakians, Spanish, and Swiss.

Sea Story had no technical problems, obtained all required permits before the trip, and was last checked for naval safety in March, according to officials.

The four-deck, wooden-hulled motor yacht was part of a multi-day diving trip when it went down near the coastal town of Marsa Alam following warnings about rough weather.

Egypt map

Officials said a distress call was received at 5.30am local time on Monday.

The boat had left Port Ghalib in Marsa Alam on Sunday and was scheduled to reach its destination of Hurghada Marina on 29 November.

The Sea Story was carrying 45 people according to a statement by the Red Sea Governorate.
Pic: Dive Pro Liveaboard
Image:
The Sea Story had 44 people on board. File pic: Dive Pro Liveaboard

Some survivors had been airlifted to safety on a helicopter, officials said.

The firm that operates the yacht, Dive Pro Liveaboard in Hurghada, said it has no information on the matter.

According to its maker’s website, the Sea Story was built in 2022.

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The incident comes after the Egyptian Meteorological Authority issued a warning on Saturday about turbulence and high waves on the Red Sea.

The organisation had advised against maritime activity for Sunday and Monday.

Some tourist companies have stopped or limited operations on the Red Sea due to the potential dangers from conflicts in the region.

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Davina McCall says she has short-term memory problems after brain tumour surgery

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Davina McCall says she has short-term memory problems after brain tumour surgery

Davina McCall has said her short-term memory is “a bit remiss” as she recovers from brain tumour surgery.

Speaking from her bed, the visibly emotional TV presenter posted a short video updating her Instagram followers on her condition, saying it had been a “mad” time.

She expressed an “enormous heartfelt thank you” to people who had messaged her after she revealed this month she had a benign brain tumour, a colloid cyst, which she described as “very rare”.

Looking bright, but with a visibly bruised left eye, McCall said: “My short-term memory is a bit remiss.

“But that is something I can work on, so I’m really happy about that. I’m writing everything down, to keep myself feeling safe.”

She added: “It’s been mad, and it’s just really nice to be back home, I’m on the other side.”

In a message posted with the video, she reiterated her thanks for all the support she has received, adding: “Had a great night’s sleep in my own bed. Have a couple of sleeps during the day which keeps my brain clear… Slowly, slowly…”

When she first shared her diagnosis, she said chances of having it were “three in a million” and that she had discovered it several months previously after a company offered her a health scan in return for giving a menopause talk.

The 57-year-old star said support from her fans had “meant the world”.

She said she was being “brilliantly looked after” by her partner, hairdresser Michael Douglas, and her stepmother, Gabby, who she calls mum.

Becoming tearful, the presenter said: “I’d quickly like to say big up the stepmums. I don’t really say thank you to Gabby enough. She’s been an amazing rock my whole life.”

McCall was estranged from her birth mother, Florence McCall, who died in 2008.

Kate coming out of the Big Brother house in 2002
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McCall with 2002 Big Brother winner Kate Lawler. Pic: Rex Features

With a catch in her voice, McCall went on: “I’ve got a massive dose of vitamin G – I’m just really grateful. I’ve always been really lucky in my life, but I feel unbelievably grateful right now. So, thanks for everything, all of you.

“I’m on the mend, I’m resting and sleeping loads and I feel really good. I’m just very lucky.”

Stars including presenter Alison Hammond, singer Craig David and radio host Zoe Ball quickly shared their delight at the positive update.

McCall rose to fame presenting on MTV in the mid-1990s, and later on Channel 4’s Streetmate, before becoming a household name as the host of Big Brother from 2000 to 2010.

Davina McCall  with her partner Michael Douglas and her daughter Holly Robertson after being made a Member of the Order of the British Empire
Pic: PA
Image:
McCall with her MBE, alongside her partner Michael Douglas and her daughter Holly Robertson. Pic: PA

She’s gone on to present programmes across the networks, the most recent being ITV dating show My Mum, Your Dad.

Last year, McCall was appointed Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) in the 2023 Birthday Honours for services to broadcasting.

Married twice, McCall has three children, two daughters and a son, with her second husband, presenter Matthew Robertson.

She has lived with Douglas since 2022, and they present a weekly lifestyle podcast together, Making The Cut.

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UK weather: How long will rainy and windy conditions last – and is another storm already on the way?

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UK weather: How long will rainy and windy conditions last - and is another storm already on the way?

Storm Bert continues to cause chaos in the UK, but just how long is heavy rain and wind expected to batter the country?

The Met Office says Storm Bert will start to “slowly pull away” from the UK on Monday, meaning an unsettled start to the day.

A yellow weather warning remains in place for northern parts of Scotland.

It warns of heavy downpours, especially over higher ground, where accumulations of 50-70mm are expected. The warning is in place until midnight.

Storm Bert latest: Follow live updates

In central Scotland, wind speeds of 50-60mph are likely, and gusts up to 70mph could be felt near the coast and on exposed bridges.

Met Office chief meteorologist Andy Page said that while the risk of snowfall had now diminished, rainfall would “affect much of the UK”.

Frequent showers are expected in Northern Ireland, northern England, Wales and the West Country, with the heaviest expected in southwestern parts of England and South Wales.

Mr Page said weather warnings “could still be amended” and possibly at short notice, and urged people to “keep up to date with the very latest forecast”.

Sky News meteorologist Christopher England warns there could be a risk of hail and thunder in northern Scotland, at the start of the week.

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Storm Bert causes flooding in Wales

As of Monday morning, there were hundreds of flood warnings and alerts in place. Three of those – two in Wales and one in England – were “severe warnings”.

A further 160 flood warnings and more than 200 flood alerts were issued by the Environment Agency in England, and eight flood warnings and 23 flood alerts in place in Wales at the time of writing.

Bert to clear UK by Tuesday

By Tuesday, Storm Bert will finally clear the UK, the Met Office said, bringing with it “quieter weather for many”.

However, parts of the country may not be without rain or wind for long, as the forecaster says strong gusts and rainfall could start again on Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Check the forecast in your area

“How long the more settled conditions last is uncertain, with rain probably returning to westernmost areas at least by the end of the week,” the Met Office website says.

Chris England adds: “Wednesday will bring strong winds and a spell of heavy rain across the south, while the north looks mostly fine after a frosty and foggy start in places.

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Woman loses umbrella to Storm Bert

“Thursday looks cool again, but mostly fine. Friday will be milder, with outbreaks of rain likely over Ireland, Northern Ireland and north-west Scotland.”

He says going into the weekend, Saturday “looks cloudy and breezy in the north and west, with a little rain possible at times”.

When could the next named storm be?

Storm Bert was the second named storm of the season after Storm Ashley brought similar wet and windy conditions towards the end of October.

Although it cannot be known for sure when the next storm will be, the Met Office already knows it will be referred to as Storm Conall. The forecaster names storms in alphabetical order.

It says it only names a storm when it has the “potential to cause disruption or damage which could result in an amber or red warning” and according to its long range forecast, this could be as soon as next month.

It says that between 9 and 23 December, “there are signs” there will be wetter and windier interludes with a risk of snow, adding: “These conditions look more likely to dominate towards the middle of December.”

Whether this will be strong enough for a storm to be named remains unknown.

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