When the UK sizzles during an intense summer heatwave it could well be linked to melting ice caps and glaciers in the frozen North, according to a new analysis.
While increased melting due to climate change could make such events even more extreme, the connection may also make heatwaves possible to predict up to a year in advance, the study finds.
“We will be able to estimate the exact year of the warm and dry summer in northern Europe more closely in the winter before it occurs,” says Dr Marliena Oltmanns at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton who led the research.
Such a forecasting ability could be significant, allowing farmers, hospitals, or power providers time to plan for heatwaves that are already becoming more extreme due to increasing global average temperatures.
Researchers have suspected for a while that there is a link between weather extremes in northern Europe and the intense summer melting in the Arcticand subarctic due to climate change – but how they might be connected remained elusive.
Image: Bournemouth beach after temperatures topped 40C in 2022. Pic: PA
The new study looks at the influence of billions of tonnes of cold, fresh meltwater from ice caps and glaciers on the North Atlantic current and the position of the jet stream high in the atmosphere.
In summer, melting can lead to major differences in where warm tropical water carried by the North Atlantic current meets cold water. This in turn impacts weather systems that can induce a “kink” in the jet stream above.
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The powerful jet stream is a major influence on how weather systems move over Europe. When it’s “kinked” the result is usually high pressure and hot air from southern Europe and Africa sitting over the UK.
This was exactly the situation that preceded heatwaves in the UK in 2018 and in 2022 when temperatures breached 40C in the UK for the first time on record – an event believed to have caused nearly 3,000 excess deaths.
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Why is it so hot in the UK?
The research also casts doubt on the significance of recent headlines warning of a “shutdown” of a slower North Atlantic ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Oscillation – often misnamed the Gulf Stream.
Reports suggested the slowing of this current could plunge places like the UK into continual cold, Arctic-like weather.
But the short-term influence of ocean temperatures on the jet stream – which plays a far bigger role in dictating weather patterns – is likely to overwhelm any impact this slow-moving ocean current has on weather, argues Dr Oltmanns.
“Where does the wind come from – that’s what has the greatest impact on society,” she says.
What does the current situation in the North Atlantic say about this coming summer?
An extreme ocean heatwave in 2023 makes it less likely we’ll expect a “kinked” jet stream and therefore an extreme heatwave says Dr Oltmanns.
So don’t rush out and buy a new barbeque just yet…
But perhaps consider where you want to go on holiday.
The current situation does increase the likelihood that southern Europe will endure another summer of intense heat like we saw in 2023 – a heatwave that led to widespread wildfires and drought.
A nationwide police operation to track down those in grooming gangs has been announced by the Home Office.
The National Crime Agency (NCA) will target those who have sexually exploited children as part of a grooming gang, and will investigate cases that were not previously progressed.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said in a statement: “The vulnerable young girls who suffered unimaginable abuse at the hands of groups of adult men have now grown into brave women who are rightly demanding justice for what they went through when they were just children.
“Not enough people listened to them then. That was wrong and unforgivable. We are changing that now.
“More than 800 grooming gang cases have already been identified by police after I asked them to look again at cases which had closed too early.
“Now we are asking the National Crime Agency to lead a major nationwide operation to track down more perpetrators and bring them to justice.”
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Starmer to launch new grooming gang inquiry
The NCA will work in partnership with police forces around the country and specialist officers from the Child Sexual Exploitation Taskforce, Operation Hydrant – which supports police forces to address all complex and high-profile cases of child sexual abuse – and the Tackling Organised Exploitation Programme.
It comes after Sir Keir Starmer announced a national inquiry into child sex abuse on Saturday, ahead of the release of a government-requested audit into the scale of grooming gangs across the country, which concluded a nationwide probe was necessary.
The prime minister previously argued a national inquiry was not necessary, but changed his view following an audit into group-based child sexual abuse led by Baroness Casey, set to be published next week.
Ms Cooper is set to address parliament on Monday about the findings of the near 200-page report, which is expected to warn that white British girls were “institutionally ignored for fear of racism”.
One person familiar with the report said it details the institutional failures in treating young girls and cites a decade of lost action from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA), set up in 2014 to investigate grooming gangs in Rotherham.
The report is also expected to link illegal immigration with the exploitation of young girls.
Career spy Blaise Metreweli will become the first woman to head MI6 in a “historic appointment”, the prime minister has announced.
She will take over from Sir Richard Moore as the 18th Chief, also known as “C”, when he steps down in the autumn.
“The historic appointment of Blaise Metreweli comes at a time when the work of our intelligence services has never been more vital,” Sir Keir Starmer said in a statement released on Sunday night.
“The United Kingdom is facing threats on an unprecedented scale – be it aggressors who send their spy ships to our waters or hackers whose sophisticated cyber plots seek to disrupt our public services.”
Of the other main spy agencies, GCHQis also under female command for the first time.
Anne Keast-Butler took on the role in 2023, while MI5 has previously twice been led by a woman.
Until now, a female spy chief had only headed MI6– also known as the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) – in the James Bond movies.
Image: Blaise Metreweli is the first woman to be named head of MI6. Pic: Reuters
Dame Judi Dench held the fictional role – called “M” in the films instead of “C” – between 1995 and 2015.
Ms Metreweli currently serves as “Q”, one of four director generals inside MI6.
The position – also made famous by the James Bond films, with the fictional “Q” producing an array of spy gadgets – means she is responsible for technology and innovation.
Ms Metreweli, a Cambridge graduate, joined MI6 in 1999.
Unlike the outgoing chief, who spent some of his service as a regular diplomat in the foreign office, including as ambassador to Turkey, she has spent her entire career as an intelligence officer.
Much of that time was dedicated to operational roles in the Middle East and Europe.
Ms Metreweli, who is highly regarded by colleagues, also worked as a director at MI5.
In a statement, she said she was “proud and honoured to be asked to lead my service”.
“MI6 plays a vital role – with MI5 and GCHQ – in keeping the British people safe and promoting UK interests overseas,” she said.
“I look forward to continuing that work alongside the brave officers and agents of MI6 and our many international partners.”
Sir Richard said: “Blaise is a highly accomplished intelligence officer and leader, and one of our foremost thinkers on technology. I am excited to welcome her as the first female head of MI6.”
A woman has died after falling into the water at a popular beauty spot in the Scottish Highlands.
The 23-year-old had fallen into the water in the Rogie Falls area of Wester Ross.
Police Scotland confirmed emergency services attended the scene after being called at 1.45pm on Saturday.
“However, [she] was pronounced dead at the scene,” a spokesperson said.
“There are no suspicious circumstances and a report will be submitted to the Procurator Fiscal.”
Rogie Falls are a series of waterfalls on the Black Water, a river in Ross-shire in the Highlands of Scotland. They are a popular attraction for tourists on Scotland’s North Coast 500 road trip.