When Sky News launched The Voters Panel 24 hours ago, there was one party who stood apart from the rest – Reform.
Our online congregation – 2019 Tory voters working out their political home in this year’s general election – seemed less sure where other, bigger parties were planting their ideological flags.
In contrast, many members of our panel knew everything about what this 2024 post-Farage update of the 2019 Brexit Party stands for: its big picture policies, its characters, its aims, its vibe.
In many ways this is remarkable. The party doesn’t have the global pulling power of Nigel Farage working full-time to support it. It does not automatically command much coverage in newspapers, radio or TV outside of GB News.
It has had a tricky time in by-elections. It hasn’t fought a general election before. And the name, Reform, would not automatically stand out on a ballot paper.
Yet, whether members of The Voters Panel found them attractive or repellent, it had clearly cut through, and for many on the panel, it represented more than just the sum of policies.
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“I think the thing that stands out about Reform for me is that they want to bring back and get Britain great,” said Alison, 65, a panel member from Lewes.
At the other end of the spectrum, Joshua – who is set to switch to Labour from Tory in 2019 – said: “I hope Richard Tice and Nigel Farage go back to being fringe people with fringe ideas, which they are, and stop feeling and being made to feel by others like they are some sort of kingmakers with the best, strongest ideas in politics.
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“They are odd people with sad, angry ideas that need to go away and I hope they do to help us come to our senses and have a more normal political situation, with a better chance of solving the country’s problems.”
According to the Sky News The Voters Panel, the Reform Party is the second biggest alternative destination to the Conservatives after Labour. In some polls of Tory voters, they are the most likely alternative.
The hope inside Conservative headquarters is that when warned voting Reform would put Sir Keir Starmer in Downing Street, some will peel away and back the Tories.
However, The Voters Panel showed that members had already given thought to this issue.
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Four of the six online panel members who will, or are considering, voting Reform have already concluded that they will do so regardless of whether it puts Sir Keir in power.
Alison said: “If voting reform means that Labour becomes our next parliament, our next government, then I don’t mind that because I want the Conservatives to get a message that ordinary people like me aren’t happy with the way they have run the country, especially in the last 10 years.”
Rob, 49, from Chichester, said: “I’m absolutely aware that voting for Reform means that the Conservatives are less likely to form the next government. And it may well open the door to Labour.
“But I feel that may have to be a price worth paying if we are ever to get any real change in this country.”
Meanwhile, Kelly said that Reform would be her pick over the Tories because of the stance on tax.
“Some people might say that the Reform vote is a protest vote, but for me it isn’t,” she said. “It absolutely isn’t. It’s a legitimate vote and it’s a vote that they’ve had for [quite] a while now.
“The things that really speak out for me are lower taxes. Lower taxes in general are all going to be welcomed as long as we can afford it.
“And I’m sure that they won’t do what Conservatives have done and crash the economy again. I think lower taxes in the right areas will be really beneficial for me and my family.”
If even half of the voters that currently back Reform stick with this view, Rishi Sunak’s path to Number 10 looks even trickier.
Sir Keir Starmer has insisted the “vast majority of farmers” will not be affected by changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) ahead of a protest outside parliament on Tuesday.
It follows Chancellor Rachel Reeves announcing a 20% inheritance tax that will apply to farms worth more than £1m from April 2026, where they were previously exempt.
But the prime minister looked to quell fears as he resisted calls to change course.
Speaking from the G20 summit in Brazil, he said: “If you take a typical case of a couple wanting to pass a family farm down to one of their children, which would be a very typical example, with all of the thresholds in place, that’s £3m before any inheritance tax is paid.”
The comments come as thousands of farmers, including celebrity farmer Jeremy Clarkson, are due to descend on Whitehall on Tuesday to protest the change.
And 1,800 more will take part in a “mass lobby” where members of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) will meet their MPs in parliament to urge them to ask Ms Reeves to reconsider the policy.
Speaking to broadcasters, Sir Keir insisted the government is supportive of farmers, pointing to a £5bn investment announced for them in the budget.
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He said: “I’m confident that the vast majority of farms and farmers will not be affected at all by that aspect of the budget.
“They will be affected by the £5bn that we’re putting into farming. And I’m very happy to work with farmers on that.”
Sir Keir’s spokesman made a similar argument earlier on Monday, saying the government expects 73% of farms to not be affected by the change.
Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs Secretary Steve Reed said only about 500 out of the UK’s 209,000 farms would be affected, according to Treasury calculations.
However, that number has been questioned by several farming groups and the Conservatives.
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2:28
Farming industry is feeling ‘betrayed’ – NFU boss
Government figures ‘misleading’
The NFU said the real number is about two-thirds, with its president Tom Bradshaw calling the government’s figures “misleading” and accusing it of not understanding the sector.
The Country Land and Business Association (CLA) said the policy could affect 70,000 farms.
Conservative shadow farming minister Robbie Moore accused the government last week of “regurgitating” figures that represent “past claimants of agricultural property relief, not combined with business property relief” because he said the Treasury does not have that data.
Agricultural property relief (APR) currently provides farmers 100% relief from paying inheritance tax on agricultural land or pasture used for rearing livestock or fish, and can include woodland and buildings, such as farmhouses, if they are necessary for that land to function.
Farmers can also claim business property relief (BPR), providing 50% or 100% relief on assets used by a trading business, which for farmers could include land, buildings, plant or machinery used by the business, farm shops and holiday cottages.
APR and BPR can often apply to the same asset, especially farmed land, but APR should be the priority, however BPR can be claimed in addition if APR does not cover the full value (e.g. if the land has development value above its agricultural value).
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Mr Moore said the Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Treasury have disagreed on how many farms will be impacted “by as much as 40%” due to the lack of data on farmers using BPR.
Lib Dem MP Tim Farron said last week1,400 farmers in Cumbria, where he is an MP, will be affected and will not be able to afford to pay the tax as many are on less than the minimum wage despite being asset rich.
A split is emerging in the cabinet, with Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson revealing she will join several of her colleagues and vote against the bill to legalise assisted dying.
Ms Phillipson told Sky News she will vote against the proposed legislation at the end of this month, which would give terminally ill people with six months to live the option to end their lives.
She voted against assisted dying in 2015 and said: “I haven’t changed my mind.
“I continue to think about this deeply. But my position hasn’t changed since 2015.”
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2:41
Details of end of life bill released
MPs will be given a free vote on the bill, so they will not be told how to vote by their party.
The topic has seen a split in the cabinet – however, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has yet to reveal how he will vote on 29 November.
Ms Phillipson joins some other big names who have publicly said they are voting against the bill
These include Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds.
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Border security minister Angela Eagle is also voting against the bill.
Senior cabinet members voting in favour of assisted dying include Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Science Secretary Peter Kyle, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn, Transport Secretary Louise Haigh and Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens.
The split over the issue is said to be causing friction within government, with Sir Keir rebuking the health secretary for repeatedly saying he is against the bill and for ordering officials to review the costs of implementing any changes in the law.
Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates has been told Morgan McSweeney, the PM’s chief of staff, is concerned about the politics of the bill passing.
He is understood to be worried the issue will dominate the agenda next year and, while he is not taking a view on the bill, he can see it taking over the national conversation and distracting from core government priorities like the economy and borders.
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Details of the bill were published last week and include people wanting to end their life having to self-administer the medicine.
It would only be allowed for terminally ill people who have been given six months to live.
Two independent doctors would have to confirm a patient is eligible for assisted dying and a High Court judge would have to give their approval before it could go ahead.
Lord Patten, the last governor of Hong Kong, has called on the British government to condemn the “sham” sentencing of 45 Hong Kong politicians and activists as Sir Keir Starmer holds talks with the Chinese president.
The former opposition pro-democracy politicians, social workers, activists and academics are due to be sentenced on Tuesday for conspiring to subvert power through an unofficial “primary” election four years ago.
Members of the public have been queuing to attend their sentencing, which will see them facing up to life in jail.
It is Hong Kong’s largest and longest-running prosecution under the national security law, which was enforced by Beijing and saw months of mass protests, police violence and arrests in 2020 and 2021.
Called the “Hong Kong 47” after 47 were charged in January 2021 with conspiracy to commit subversion, 45 of them are set to be sentenced this week after two were acquitted in May this year.
Lord Patten, a patron of British NGO Hong Kong Watch, said the sentences tomorrow will be a “sham” and he called on the prime minister to speak out against them.
Sir Keir met Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Rio on Monday where he told him a “strong UK-China relationship is important for both of our countries”.
The UK PM told reporters on Sunday he intended to pursue a “serious, pragmatic” relationship with Beijing.
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Lord Patten said: “The sentencing of 45 of the 47 Hong Kong democrats is not only an affront to the people of Hong Kong, but those who value rights and freedoms around the world.
“These brave individuals were an integral part of defining the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, and were peacefully supported by thousands through votes.
“I absolutely condemn these sham sentences, which resulted from a non-jury trial and point to the destruction of freedoms of assembly, expression, and the press in Hong Kong.
“The UK government must not allow the results of this case to go unnoticed or uncondemned.”
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0:29
2020 Hong Kong protests: ‘We will never surrender’
Historic meeting between Starmer and Xi
Sir Keir’s meeting with President Xi in Rio is the first of any prime minister in more than six years.
The PM and his foreign secretary, David Lammy, have been critical of China in the past, particularly regarding allegations of human rights abuses against Uyghurs in Xinjiang.
Relations between the UK and China have become frosty over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks from Chinese investment.
Sir Keir appears to be prioritising trade, with China being Britain’s sixth largest trading partner, accounting for 5% of goods and services trade worth £86.5bn.
The PM’s spokesman said Sir Keir told Mr Xi he wants to “engage honestly and frankly on those areas where we have different perspectives, including on Hong Kong, human rights and Russia’s war in Ukraine”.
Hong Kong 47 in jail for nearly four years
Most of the Hong Kong 47 have been in custody since they were arrested in early 2021.
One of the most famous members of the group is Nobel Peace Prize nominee Joshua Wong, a student protest leader who became leader of the now-disbanded political group Demosisto.
Sixteen of the group pleaded not guilty, with 14 of them convicted after a 118-day trial without a jury. Those found guilty will be sentenced along with 31 who pleaded guilty.
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They were arrested after organising a primary election in July 2020 aiming to help pro-democracy politicians seize a majority in the 2021 Legislative Council elections.
Prosecutors said had they won a majority in the chamber, the democrats were planning to “indiscriminately” veto bills, including the annual budget, which would force the chief executive’s resignation and a government shutdown.
National security judges ruled the move would have plunged Hong Kong into a “constitutional crisis”.