The papal conclave is beginning, where 133 cardinal electors are tasked with choosing the new leader of the Catholic Church.

The successful candidate will need to secure two-thirds of the votes, with cardinals not able to emerge from the Vatican – which is sealed off from outside influences – until a new pope has been chosen.

Predicting the next pontiff is extremely difficult. Pope Francis himself was not supposed to be pope – and did not want to be, as he revealed after being elected.

Follow latest: Doors of Sistine Chapel locked – conclave officially begins

Vatican watchers currently forecast this conclave will be more unpredictable than ever. The role could be handed back to an Italian, the first since John Paul I nearly 50 years ago. Or, for the first time in history, the next pontiff could be from Africa or Asia.

The question remains if the next pope will be more progressive on matters like LGBTQ+, women in the church and war, which is how Francis led, or more conservative, as was Francis’s predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI.

Here are some of the main contenders who could be voted to replace Pope Francis.

Pietro Parolin, 70
Nationality: Italian

If the next pontiff is Italian, Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, is widely considered the frontrunner.

The secretary of state is considered the pope’s second in command, with the role often referred to as the “deputy pope”.

Cardinal Parolin has been in the role since 2013 and has since become a well-known and powerful figure at the Vatican.

In 2018 he brokered a landmark deal with Beijing which allowed both the government and church to jointly appoint bishops – a highly controversial move – and also played a part in the Holy See regaining relations with communist Vietnam.

A softly spoken man, Cardinal Parolin is thought to be more moderate in his beliefs. In the past he has defended the Vatican’s power over local church leaders, saying they cannot make decisions that would end up affecting all Catholics.

He has also condemned the legalisation of same-sex marriage in many countries as “a defeat for humanity” and criticised efforts in Germany to bless same-sex unions.

Read more on Pietro Parolin here

Matteo Zuppi, 69
Nationality: Italian

Cardinal Zuppi, currently the archbishop of Bologna, is another likely candidate, and is seen as one of the most progressive in the upcoming conclave.

Born and bred in Rome, Cardinal Zuppi had a close relationship with Pope Francis, and is sometimes referred to as “Italian Bergoglio”, meaning the Italian version of the late pope who was born Jorge Mario Bergoglio.

Also similar to Francis, Cardinal Zuppi was known as a “street priest” who focuses on migrants and the poor, caring little about pomp and protocol. He goes by the preferred name of Father Matteo, and in Bologna sometimes uses a bicycle rather than an official car.

He was appointed by Francis as the papal envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, concentrating on efforts to repatriate (send back) children who Ukraine says have been deported to Russia or Russian-held territories.

On LGBTQ+ issues, he wrote the introduction of the Italian version of Building a Bridge, a book by American Jesuit Rev James Martin that focuses on the church’s need to improve its outreach to the LGBTQ+ community.

Read more about Matteo Zuppi here

Luis Tagle, 67
Nationality: Filipino

On paper, Cardinal Tagle, often referred to as the “Asian Francis”, seems to have all the boxes ticked to qualify him to be a pope. If elected he would be the first pontiff from Asia.

He has decades of pastoral and administrative experience, working as bishop of Imus and then as archbishop of Manila before being made cardinal by Benedict in 2012. He is thought to be more progressive in his beliefs.

Cardinal Tagle also headed the Vatican’s Caritas Internationalis – a confederation of more than 160 Catholic relief, social service, and development organisations around the world – between 2015 and 2022 before coming to Rome permanently.

However, his tenure at Caritas was not without controversy, and some have questioned his management skills.

In 2022, Francis ousted the entirety of the Caritas management, including demoting Tagle. The Holy See said an outside investigation had found “real deficiencies” in management that had affected staff morale.

Read more about Luis Tagle here

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 66
Nationality: Congolese

Cardinal Besungu is one of Africa’s most outspoken Catholic leaders and a more conservative candidate.

He is currently archbishop of Kinshasa – the capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo – the archdiocese which has the largest number of Catholics on the continent. If elected, he would be the first pontiff from Africa.

Across the continent, he is seen as deeply committed to Catholic orthodoxy.

Last year, he signed a statement on behalf of the bishops conferences of Africa and Madagascar, refusing to follow Pope Francis’s declaration allowing priests to offer blessings to same-sex couples.

However, he has promoted interfaith tolerance, an important factor on a continent where religious divisions between Christians and Muslims are common.

Peter Erdo, 72
Nationality: Hungarian

Known by his peers as a serious theologian, scholar and educator, Cardinal Erdo is a leading contender among conservatives.

He has served as the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest in Hungary since 2002 and was made a cardinal by John Paul II the following year. He participated in two conclaves, in 2005 and 2013, for the selection of Benedict and Francis.

Despite being a conservative, he is also seen to be pragmatic and never clashed openly with Francis, unlike other tradition-minded clerics.

However, he did go against Pope Francis’s call for churches to take in refugees, saying this would amount to human trafficking, a move that seemingly aligned himself with Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

He speaks Italian, German, French, Spanish and Russian, which could possibly help him thaw relations between the Catholic and Russian Orthodox churches after divisions emerged after the outbreak of the Ukraine war.

Cardinal Erdo opposes same-sex unions and has also rejected suggestions that Catholics who remarry after getting divorced should be able to receive communion.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60
Nationality: Italian

Cardinal Pizzaballa is the current head of the Vatican’s Latin office in Jerusalem and has spent more than three decades in the city.

He has devoted himself to the Middle East and most recently the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

In October 2023, he offered himself in an exchange for the return of kidnapped Israeli children, and last Christmas celebrated mass at the Holy Family Church in Gaza.

After Donald Trump proposed the US take over the Gaza Strip, Cardinal Pizzaballa’s office released a statement opposing the plan, saying the people who live in Gaza must “not be forced into exile”.

He is thought to be a more moderate candidate, but his precise views on other issues remain unknown.

At the age of 60 he is also one of the youngest frontrunners, making him less likely to be selected.

Age may be a big factor in determining the next pope, with many electors favouring older candidates so they do not have one leader in the role for an extensive period of time.

Peter Turkson, 76
Nationality: Ghanaian

Cardinal Turkson combines a long pastoral background of tending to congregations in Ghana with hands-on experience of leading several Vatican offices.

He made history as the first cardinal of the West African state – a region where the Catholic Church is rapidly growing.

As head of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace – the Vatican body that promotes social justice, human rights and world peace – he was one of Benedict’s closest advisors on issues such as climate change and drew much attention by attending conferences such as the World Economic Forum.

Like many cardinals from Africa, he leans towards conservative beliefs, however, he has opposed the criminalisation of gay relationships in African countries including his native Ghana.

The most common papal names

Jean-Marc Aveline, 66
Nationality: French

Cardinal Aveline is known for his easy-going nature, his readiness to crack jokes and his ideological proximity to Pope Francis, especially on immigration and the church’s relations with Islamic leaders.

He is also a serious intellectual, with a doctorate in theology and a degree in philosophy and is believed to be a more progressive candidate.

If he became pope he would be the first French pontiff since the 14th century.

One drawback for Aveline is that he understands but does not speak Italian, which could be seen as a major limitation for a job that also carries the title Bishop of Rome and requires a lot of familiarity with Roman heritage.

Anders Arborelius, 75
Nationality: Swedish

Cardinal Arborelius, who is currently the bishop of Stockholm, is also a contender for the papacy.

He converted to Catholicism at the age of 20 in a Scandinavian country with an overwhelmingly Protestant population and one of the most secularised societies in the world.

Thought to be a more moderate candidate, he is a staunch defender of church doctrine, particularly against allowing women to be deacons or to bless same-sex couples.

However, like Pope Francis, he favours welcoming immigrants into Europe.

Joseph Tobin, 72
Nationality: American

Although it is unlikely that the conclave will elect an American pope, if they were to, Cardinal Tobin is the most likely candidate.

As archbishop of Newark, he received praise for his handling of a scandal that saw former Cardinal Theodore McCarrick removed from the priesthood after being found guilty of sexual misconduct against children and adults.

Due to his openness toward the LGBTQ+ community, he is thought to be more progressive in his beliefs. In 2017 he wrote that “in too many parts of our church LGBT people have been made to feel unwelcome, excluded, and even shamed”.

Away from the church he is known for his weightlifting workouts.

Read more:
How is a new pope chosen?
What are the chances of a UK pope?
How accurate is the film Conclave?

Jose Tolentino de Mendonca, 59
Nationality: Portuguese

Cardinal Mendonca, who is the head of the Vatican’s office for culture and education, is another possible candidate.

Known as a biblical scholar and an educator, he was very close to Pope Francis and would be a progressive candidate in the conclave.

At 59 he is one of the youngest members of the College of Cardinals and despite holding numerous positions of authority, may lack administrative skills required for the pontiff role.

Cristobal Lopez Romero, 72
Nationality: Spanish

Cardinal Romero, the current archbishop of Rabat in Morocco, has dedicated himself to the wellbeing of migrants and dialogue with the Muslim faith.

He is a strong advocate for interfaith dialogue, an indicator he may be a more progressive candidate, and considers migration to be the “consequence of many problems” including poverty, war, famine and climate change.

Reporting by Lauren Russell, news reporter and newsgathering by Simone Baglivo, Europe producer and Hanna Schnitzer, specialist producer.

The conclave to elect Pope Francis’s successor begins on Wednesday.

The cardinals have assembled in Rome and will soon be locked away in the Sistine Chapel, cut off from the outside world as they debate who should be the next head of the Catholic Church.

The rituals of the event are elaborate and date back centuries. So how does the process work?

Who is taking part in conclave?

Of the 252 current cardinals, there are 133 who are eligible to vote (those under the age of 80): 52 from Europe; 23 from Asia; 20 from North America; 17 from Africa; 17 from South America; and four from Oceania.

Italy has the most cardinals who can vote, with 17, while the US has 10 and Brazil has seven. The UK has three.

Ahead of the conclave they swear an oath of secrecy, vowing to never divulge what takes place behind the conclave doors. The punishment for breaking it is excommunication.

Cardinals also hand over their mobile phones before going into conclave, and don’t get them back until the end.

Cardinal Kevin Farrell – the Camerlengo, or chamberlain, who announced Francis’s death – is the interim chief of the Catholic Church and is in charge of running the meetings.

Use our slider below to look through some of the key contenders to be the next pope. For more on who the different cardinals are, read our explainer story.

The conclave begins

Once the conclave begins, the cardinals will not emerge from the Vatican until a new pope has been chosen. The word “conclave” comes from Latin, meaning “with key” – a reference to the isolation in which the cardinals are kept.

Once everyone is inside the Sistine Chapel, it will be pronounced the “Extra Omnes!” (from Latin, meaning “Everyone else out!”) and from that moment the cardinals won’t have any contact with the outside world.

For however long the conclave lasts, cardinals will meet in the Sistine Chapel and sleep in the Casa Santa Marta guesthouse inside the Vatican, either walking between the two or taking a special bus.

Anyone who tries to interfere with the conclave faces excommunication, officially being excluded from participation in the sacraments and services of the church.

There will be one vote on the first day (Wednesday) and four votes on each subsequent day – two in the morning and two in the afternoon.

How long can it last?

The longest conclave lasted almost three years, between 1268 and 1271.

Several have lasted only one day.

The most recent conclaves – for Pope Francis in 2013, Pope Benedict XVI in 2005 and Pope John Paul II in 1978 – all lasted less than three days.

Except for the first day, when only one ballot is held, the cardinals hold four daily votes – two in the morning, two in the afternoon – until one candidate has a majority of two-thirds plus one. In this case the required number is 89.

A variety of factors can influence who is ultimately picked for pontiff, and a number of factions within the cardinals are likely to be pushing for different candidates.

Read more:
Who could be the next pope?
What are the chances of a UK pope?
How accurate is the film Conclave?

How do we know if a decision has been reached?

Yes, this is the black smoke, white smoke part.

If the cardinals have not reached a majority, the cards and the tally sheets are placed in a stove and burned with an additive to produce black smoke, showing the outside world that a pope has not yet been chosen.

For black smoke, the ballots are mixed with cartridges containing potassium perchlorate, anthracene (a component of coal tar), and sulphur. For white smoke, the burning ballots are mixed with potassium chlorate, lactose and chloroform resin.

Watching for the tell-tale smoke arising from the top of the Sistine Chapel is a tradition, with Catholics crowding into St Peter’s Square for the spectacle.

If no result has been reached after three days, the sessions are suspended for a day to allow for prayer

and discussion. More ballots are held until a two-thirds majority is reached.

When enough cardinals have agreed on a candidate, he is asked if he accepts the papacy and by which name he wishes to be known.

The ballots are burned as before, but with the recipe for white smoke to signal to the world that the Throne of St Peter will soon have a new occupant.

New pope proclaimed

The new pope then dons his new papal vestments – tailors keep large, medium and small sizes ready – and sits on a throne in the Sistine Chapel to receive the other cardinals who file up to pay homage and swear obedience to the church’s new leader.

The senior cardinal deacon then steps out on to the central balcony of St Peter’s Basilica overlooking the square and announces in Latin: “Annuntio vobis gaudium magnum. Habemus Papam” (I announce to you a great joy. We have a pope) and reveals the cardinal’s name and the name he has chosen.

The new pope then appears on the balcony to deliver his first public pontifical greeting and bless the crowds in St Peter’s Square.

A few days later, he celebrates a mass that marks the beginning of his papal ministry.

For former US national security adviser John Bolton, my guest on the podcast this week, any allegations of Iranian state-sponsored terrorism are to be taken extremely seriously.

In August 2022, the US justice department issued an arrest warrant for Iranian national Shahram Poursafi for allegedly plotting to assassinate Mr Bolton.

Fortunately for him, the person Poursafi allegedly tried to recruit for the murder plot was a “confidential human source” working on behalf of the FBI.

Mr Bolton told me the Iranians have several former and serving US officials on their assassination list, but their most valued target continues to be Donald Trump.

He also revealed that “Iran‘s terror network is really quite extensive in Europe and the United States”.

It is this story – along with the revelation to me a few days ago by the Pakistani defence minister that his country has done the CIA’s dirty work for decades – that reminded me there is a shadowy world of spies, terrorists and undercover operations engaged in a never-ending dirty war across the globe.

Ask Yalda Hakim a question on this topic

It’s a world that we only manage to glimpse when the details emerge of a successful operation that thwarts the plotters.

Or when, tragically, it is they who are successful.