Sources: Optimism building for 14-team CFP
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Pete Thamel
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Heather Dinich
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Heather Dinich
ESPN Senior Writer
- College football reporter
- Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of Indiana University
The future of the College Football Playoff contract after the 2025 season remains uncertain, with executive director Bill Hancock saying last week there’s a “need” for the deal to be done in the next month.
Since its inception in 2014, when it created a four-team model for a sport with five major conferences, the CFP has been unwieldy and awkward.
The only certainty has been a slow pace, turf squabbles and an unstable conference environment that has kept everything fluid.
But as Hancock’s one-month deadline of mid-March looms, there’s optimism and “momentum” for a 14-team playoff starting in 2026, sources told ESPN. There is an effort to come to an agreement in the coming weeks, sources said, but nothing is certain, and there are potential roadblocks and expected push back — as evidenced by the CFP’s own meandering path to a 12-team playoff.
The television side of the deal has already been agreed to in principle. Starting in 2026, ESPN is poised to spend an average of nearly $1.3 billion on the playoff for six seasons.
That leaves the CFP’s two leadership groups — the board of managers (presidents and chancellors) and management committee (commissioners and Notre Dame leadership) — to come to a decision on the format to get the deal done.
The goal is for all the commissioners to reconvene next week via video conferencing to further discuss things, sources told ESPN.
“There’s a lot of pressure to get it done or stop talking about it,” one source said.
Another source summed the cautious optimism of cohesion in the group this way: “The balance in the room is how to recognize contributions of the Big Ten and SEC while also being fair and collaborative to the collective room.”
There’s three major issues going forward — access through automatic qualification, division of money and how the group will be governed.
Sources caution that the discussions are ongoing and fluid, and there’s still work being done on these three major issues. This is where things currently stand, with sources saying things could change.
FORMAT
The expected boost in automatic qualification spots so soon after the start of the five AQ spots in the 12-team playoff that starts this season is a nod to changing conference dynamics.
According to sources, the model that’s earned the most discussion coming out of the CFP meeting in Dallas is one that would include three automatic qualifier spots for the Big Ten and SEC, two for the Big 12 and ACC and one for the Group of Five. That would leave three at-large spots in that 14-team model.
As for Notre Dame, sources told ESPN that the most likely option being discussed is that the Fighting Irish would earn a spot in the 14-team CFP if the selection committee ranks them in the top 14 on Selection Day.
Sources caution there are other models being discussed, and there needs to be a deeper discussion about how strength of schedule would factor into the 3/3, 2/2 ,1 and 3 model. The CFP isn’t locked into that model, and still has a ways to go.
There has not been significant modeling done yet by Hancock and CFP officials as to how these models would have unfolded in the CFP era. If things change from the AQ distribution that’s been most discussed, it may be because of what modeling would show the outcomes could look like in the upcoming years. Any exercise is difficult, however, because no one knows what a 16-team SEC and 18-team Big Ten are going to look like at the end of the season.
By adding strong programs and weakening other leagues, it’s difficult to project what upcoming years will look like in the SEC and Big Ten. The potential of SEC and Big Ten teams being displaced from the top 14 — as they have 34 teams and a majority of the title-contending programs — is real and will be examined more in the upcoming weeks.
How would that work? Essentially, a team ranked No. 13 or No. 14, for example, could end up getting bumped by the Group of Five winner or second-place ACC or Big 12 team in a year when the league has a runaway winner and not a clear second choice. There is also the possibility, though, that the Big Ten and SEC’s fourth-best teams — and potentially fifth — would find a landing spot in the CFP through one of those three at-large spots.
The modeling is tricky, as college sports remain a moving target. This ESPN deal would run through the 2031 season, and it’s naïve to think the conference map will look the same as it does today. One high-ranking official involved in the discussions told ESPN on Wednesday that the presidents and chancellors in both the SEC and Big Ten are having conversations about whether to continue their NCAA membership. It’s a move that would impact and could possibly derail the TV agreement.
“Those conversations are happening,” the source said, adding some feel “pretty strongly about pulling away. I’d say very strongly.”
ESPN reported earlier this month that Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti mentioned in a meeting this fall about the potential of an expanded playoff.
All CFP politics are local, and Petitti’s chair is easy to understand. He has an 18-team league with four new teams — USC, Oregon, Washington and UCLA. Two of those four — Oregon and Washington — took part in the CFP as Pac-12 members in the past decade. USC has won a national title on the field since the turn of the century.
Petitti values the way that automatic qualification games could could add meaning and interest late in the regular season — similar to the NFL. College football fans will need to be conditioned to the fact that a three-loss team with a rigorous strength of schedule can still make the playoff after generations where perfection or near-perfection was essentially required.
FINANCES
There’s some leg work to go on the finances and how they are divided, but the picture is getting clearer if a 14-team model passes.
In the old model, about 80% of the CFP revenue went to the Power 5, while 20% has been allocated to the Group of 5. According to the most recent data from the CFP, each of the Power 5 conferences received $79.41 million — a total of almost $400 million — in the spring of 2023. The Group of 5 conferences shared $102.77 million. Notre Dame received a payment of $3.89 million by meeting the NCAA’s APR standard, while the other six independents shared $1.89 million.
The new model promises to be more weighted toward the SEC and Big Ten.
Sources told ESPN that discussions have centered around the SEC and Big Ten earning somewhere between 25% and 30% of the CFP revenue. The ACC and Big 12 would be next, and they’d earn somewhere between 15% and 20%. That leaves a smaller chunk — somewhere around 6% to 10% for the other leagues and nearly 1% for Notre Dame.
The math isn’t clean, sources caution, as some money needs to go to expenses, and to places like the other remaining independent (UConn). But those are the general financial ballparks being discussed. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey has made it clear that the SEC has delivered 40% of the teams in the playoff, and he has been one of the primary drivers behind a new revenue model.
As always with money, this isn’t simple. But the ranges are refined enough where they appear to being narrowed in.
GOVERNANCE
One thing CFP leaders appear unanimously in favor of is eliminating the rule that requires unanimity to make changes to the playoff. Sometimes it’s the 10 FBS commissioners who can’t agree. Other times, it’s the 11 university presidents and chancellors who have the ultimate authority over the playoff.
Regardless, the rule has brought significant proposals to a screeching halt or caused contentious delays. In February 2022, the CFP announced it would remain a four-team playoff following an 8-3 vote in which the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 voted against expansion. It wasn’t until seventh months later that the presidents and chancellors usurped the commissioners and unanimously agreed to expand the format to 12 teams.
CFP leaders want to avoid another situation like they had recently when the Pac-12 single-handedly postponed the move from a 6+6 model to 5+7 in the 12-team format. The vote had to be unanimous, and the Pac-12 had either previously abstained or asked for a delay as it worked on determining its future following sweeping realignment.
Earlier this month, Washington State president Kirk Schulz, who represents the two Pac-12 schools on the CFP board, voted in favor of the 5+7 model, finally approving the change to reward the five highest-ranked conference champions with playoff spots.
“You don’t want one person holding it up,” a source said, “that just doesn’t work.”
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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