More widespread use of powerful weight-loss drugs like Ozempic in the U.S. could boost the economy in the coming years, according to Goldman Sachs strategists.
The bank estimates that weight-loss drugs, called GLP-1 agonists, could increase the nation’s gross domestic product by an extra 1% over the next decade, the equivalent of about $360 billion per year.
The thinking behind Goldman’s forecast is that poor health is a burden to economic growth, largely because it limits the number of available workers and hours worked due to increased missed days at work as a result of “sickness and disability, early deaths and informal caregiving.”
In fact, Goldman said that GDP in the U.S. would potentially be more than 10% higher if poor health outcomes did not affect the labor supply.
“The main reason we see meaningful upside from healthcare innovation is that poor health imposes significant economic costs. There are several channels through which poor health weighs on economic activity that could diminish if health outcomes improve,” the analysts, led by Jan Hatzius, wrote.
Drug companies are vying to join what has largely been a two-horse race to make obesity drugs.
Novo Nordisk the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly, the producer of Mounjaro, skyrocketed in popularity last year amid runaway demand for the drugs, which are taken by A-listers including Oprah Winfrey and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
Similar drugs could enter the market depending on clinical trials.
The market is expected to top $100 billion by 2030, according to one estimate from JPMorgan.
Goldman projects that anywhere between 10 million to 70 million Americans will be taking weight-loss drugs by 2028.
The wide range stems from uncertainty over clinical trials, health insurance and available supply.
“If GLP-1 usage ultimately increases by this amount and results in lower obesity rates, we see scope for significant spillovers to the broader economy,” the analyst note said. “Academic studies find that obese individuals are both less likely to work and less productive when they do.”
The economy would grow by 0.4% in a scenario where there are 30 million users, and 1% if 60 million Americans were taking these types of drugs.
“Historically, health advancements have lowered the number of life years lost to disease and disability by 10% per decade in DM economies, and we estimate that a 10-year step forward in health progress in excess of current trends could raise the level of US GDP by 1%,” Hatzius said.
Counter terror police are assessing a video reported to be from a concert by Irish rappers Kneecap.
A social media clip of the hip hop trio on stage appeared to show one member of the group shout “up Hamas, up Hezbollah”.
The footage was posted online by Danny Morris from the Jewish security charity, the Community Security Trust.
He said it was from a gig last November at London’s Kentish Town Forum.
A Metropolitan Police spokesperson said: “We have been made aware of the video and it has been referred to the counter terrorism internet referral unit for assessment and to determine whether any further police investigation may be required.”
Hamas and Hezbollah are both proscribed as terrorist groups in the UK. Under Section 12 of the Terrorism Act 2000, it is an offence to express “an opinion or belief that is supportive of a proscribed organisation”.
Sky News has contacted Kneecap’s management for comment.
It comes after TV personality Sharon Osbourne called for Kneecap’s US work visas to be revoked after accusing them of making “aggressive political statements” including “projections of anti-Israel messages and hate speech” at Coachella Music and Arts Festival.
United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently called for “Bretton Woods institutions,” such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to reorient themselves, a signal that the global monetary order could be shifting.
Speaking at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) on April 23, Bessent called on the IMF and the World Bank to correct trade imbalances and protect the value of fiat currencies against exchange rate risk.
“The Bretton Woods institutions must step back from their sprawling and unfocused agendas,” Bessent said. He added:
“The IMF’s mission is to promote international monetary cooperation, facilitate the balanced growth of international trade, encourage economic growth, and discourage harmful policies like competitive exchange rate depreciation.”
Bessent’s call for the IMF to correct trade imbalances between countries, specifically the US and China, coincides with a decline in the US dollar to three-year lows, $36 trillion in US government debt, and stiff economic competition from China.
The Dollar Currency Index (DXY), a measure of the US dollar’s strength relative to other major fiat currencies, plunges to three-year lows. Source: TradingView
Investor and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio argues that the world is experiencing a global macroeconomic shift that will upend the post-WWII financial order and eventually replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency, potentially with a digital form of money.
The Bretton Woods Agreement was signed in 1944 and pegged the currencies of 44 countries to the value of the US dollar, which, at that point, was pegged to the value of gold at $35 per ounce.
Eliminating complex foreign exchange risks between freely floating currencies to make global trade more efficient was the primary goal of the agreement.
US President Richard Nixon delivers the infamous “Nixon shock” speech in August 1971, suspending the dollar’s convertibility to gold. Source: Richard Nixon Presidential Library
In August 1971, US President Richard Nixon announced the end of the dollar’s convertibility to gold — formally ending the Bretton Woods agreement in a move that was supposed to be temporary.
“Your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it does today,” Nixon incorrectly told Americans during his now-infamous address.
The IMF and the World Bank, which were spawned from the Bretton Woods agreement, continue operating in an attempt to curb the effects of free-floating fiat currencies on the foreign exchange market.
Bessent eyes stablecoins to protect the US dollar, BTC advocates have another idea
Speaking at the White House Digital Asset Summit on March 7, Bessent said stablecoins could drive international demand for US dollars and US government debt instruments.
Bitcoin maximalist Max Keiser argued against this plan, predicting that gold-backed stablecoins would outcompete dollar-pegged tokens due to the desire for low-volatility, inflation-resistant money.
The US dollar’s purchasing power has declined by over 90% since the year 1900. Source: Visual Capitalist
In March this year, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink wrote that the $36 trillion US national debt could drive investors to Bitcoin (BTC) as market participants start to see BTC as a better store of value than the US dollar.
Bitwise executive Jeff Park voiced a similar prediction in February, focused on the effects of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
The analyst wrote that the tumult from the ongoing trade war would cause worldwide inflation, which would cause individuals to seek alternative stores of value like Bitcoin, driving its price much higher in the long term.
How to describe the moment when you see the open coffin of Pope Francis?
How to sum up an experience that was shared with many, but which felt so intimate? Fortunate, memorable, touching, and emotional. Above all, unique.
Well, let’s start at the beginning.
Image: People queuing to see the open coffin of Pope Francis use their phones to take pictures. Pic: AP
We, along with other members of the global media, were invited into the basilica by the Vatican in order to see the lines of people filing past the coffin; to bear witness to the emotions, the sounds. To this demonstration of faith.
As we start to walk over, we know we are the lucky ones.
The queue to get into the basilica stretches into the distance – there are people waiting eight hours for the chance to see the coffin.
By contrast, we are ushered in through a side door. We round a corner, walking against a tide of people, until we enter the huge, soaring chamber in which the Pope’s coffin lies in state.
A beam of sunshine is lighting up an imposing statue, created by the genius of Bernini and now looking down upon the Pope.
I can see Francis’s hands crossed on his chest. His coffin is large, resting on the floor, but it is not ostentatious. You can see the red cloth of his vestments.
Image: Pic: Reuters
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1:52
3D map shows pope’s funeral route
It is one thing to be told that the Pope has died, but quite another to witness the proof. Perhaps that is why so many are queuing for this moment – to bring closure, as much as to offer thanks.
Setting glistens with gold
The setting is extraordinary.
St Peter’s Basilica is a simply astonishing building that glistens with gold and whose domed ceiling rises to the sky.
Francis wanted to eschew the extravagance of previous papal funerals, but there is no avoiding the splendour of his surroundings.
By his coffin, soaring up, is the huge canopy known as St Peter’s Baldachin, which covers the altar.
Beneath it, so Christians believe, is the tomb of St Peter. This is one of the holiest places in Christianity, and the Pope lies alongside it.
Around his coffin are four soldiers from the Swiss Guard, dressed in their familiar red, blue, and yellow uniforms.
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3:15
The ‘Papal Interregnum’ explained
Image: The hand of the deceased Pope Francis. Pic: AP
No sense of rush
A rope runs around the coffin, marking off the area. There are a few seats on one side for notable dignitaries to use when paying their respects. On the other side is a space for senior members of the Catholic church to pray and give thanks.
As we watch, there are two cardinals using this space, including the Italian Matteo Zuppi, a contender to be the next pope. I can see his mouth moving in prayer, his head bowed.
The chamber is thronged with people, but there is no sense of rush.
The queue of people runs round the edge of half the room, but it is orderly, shuffling ever forward. And there is such a blend of people – nuns and priests, but also families dressed for a day in the sun, teenagers in football shirts, grandparents in their finery. Some come in black, others in suits, some in scruffy old T-shirts.
I see three nuns come past, followed by a young woman in jeans and a T-shirt. The nuns are smiling; the woman is sobbing. We learn it’s impossible to predict who will be affected most.
Image: Nuns from Spain and South America wait to see the body of Pope Francis. Pic: AP
You do not get to linger long at the front – maybe a few seconds – but it is an opportunity that divides.
Phones are a constant sight
Some make a cross; some offer a prayer; some take a selfie. Mobile phones are a constant sight. At any given moment, I can see dozens of them held in the air, capturing photos of the scene.
It’s hard to say whether these phones damage the mood, bruising the sombre sense of intimacy, or whether they add to the idea that this is as much about celebrating life as it is about bemoaning death. Maybe both can be true.
It is an emotional experience, whether you have faith or not. What is remarkable here is not the sight of Pope Francis’s coffin, not the hands arranged on his chest, nor the ceremony around St Peter’s.
What is extraordinary – and what will live with me – is that so many people are prepared to queue for hour after hour in the beating sun to quietly offer thanks to a man that hardly any of them had ever met, but many felt they knew.
Like the Queen before, what really matters is not the scene that people will see, but rather the fact that they are so desperate to come.