The Baltic states have an urgent message for the UK and other NATO allies about the threat posed by Russia: “Wake up! It won’t stop in Ukraine.”
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are teaching more of their citizens how to fight and have even announced plans to build a defensive line, including bunkers, along hundreds of miles of border that separates their territories from their much larger neighbour.
Now, as concern grows within NATO about the potential for large-scale conflict returning to Europe, Sky News has travelled from northeast Estonia to southwest Lithuania to hear from soldiers, civilians and politicians who are preparing for a war they hope never to fight.
As former members of the Soviet Union, the Baltics have been sounding the alarm about the existential menace posed by Moscow ever since they joined the NATO alliance two decades ago.
Back then, though, no one really listened.
Instead, the UK and other allies were focused on the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan – countering insurgents and Islamist militants is a very different type of fight than a conventional war against a peer enemy like Russia.
Adding to a collective erosion in NATO’s defences, many European states, including Britain, significantly reduced stockpiles of Cold War-era weapons, such as tanks, artillery and ammunition, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, mistakenly believing they no longer needed to be ready to fight a war of survival at a moment’s notice.
Image: People in Moscow show their support for Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Pic: Reuters
The concept of ‘deterrence by denial’
The alliance agreed to bolster its defences along the eastern flank of the Baltic states and Poland, with the deployment in 2017 of units of allied troops to all four countries – around 800 soldiers to each nation.
But this was done relatively cautiously – to minimise the risk of triggering an escalation of tensions directly between Moscow and the West as plenty of NATO states, including France and Germany, still had relatively close ties with Russia and did a lot of business.
As a result, the limited mission was not designed to prevent an invasion, but rather to provide a “tripwire” should Russian forces attack that would trigger a much larger allied response to then push them back out.
However, Vladimir Putin’s full-scale war in Ukraine on 24 February 2022 fundamentally altered that thinking too.
The allies realised once Russian troops had entered a country it would take a lot more effort to eject them, so they agreed to beef up their eastern defences even more and expanded them into four other nations.
The aim today is to prevent Russia from ever trying to invade – a concept known as “deterrence by denial”.
Throughout this evolution, the loudest voices inside NATO – urging allies to go further, faster and raising the alarm about Russia’s intentions – have been Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
They have also been amongst the strongest supporters of Ukraine and have warned that if Moscow prevails over Kyiv, it will likely try to test NATO’s defences next.
Image: The site of a shopping centre in Kyiv that was bombed weeks after Russia’s invasion in 2022. Pic: Reuters
A potential soft spot for any Russian attack
The city of Narva lies on Estonia’s northeastern tip – right next door to Russia.
A vast, medieval castle, with large, stone walls and an Estonian flag fluttering high, stands at one edge of the city, next to a river that marks the border.
On the opposite bank is a second, similarly grand, historic castle, but it flies a Russian flag.
A crossing point, called the Friendship Bridge, connects Narva with the Russian city of Ivangorod.
It is only open to pedestrians after the Russian authorities closed their end to vehicle traffic for construction work at the start of February.
Image: A historic castle in Estonia flies a Russian flag
Arnold Vaino, a police officer with the Estonian border guard, walked us on to the bridge, stopping just short of a red post that marks the halfway point and the start of Russia.
He recalled how he felt on the day the Kremlin launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine.
“Nobody feels comfortable when you hear that war has started,” he said. “But [we don’t feel] scared, for sure. But you open your eyes more wide.”
In an indication of the complexities of the geography and history of the region, the majority of residents in Narva speak Russian and some are sympathetic to Moscow.
It makes the city a potential soft spot for any Russian attack under the guise of coming to the aide of the Russian nationals who live in Narva.
Any such move, though, would trigger an allied response under one of the founding principles of NATO – an attack on one is an attack on all.
There is no sense of fondness for the Russian government in most other parts of Estonia, including an island of about 9,000 people off the country’s western coast.
NATO commanders believe that Hiiumaa island could be another potential target for Moscow in any war with the West because of its strategic location in the Baltic Sea.
If Russian troops were to seize the territory, they would potentially have the ability to block access to the sea and isolate the Baltic states.
Such a prospect is one that the islanders are doing all they can to deter.
Estonian volunteers urge British civilians to learn to fight
We met a unit of citizen soldiers, faces painted army green, as they practised ambushes with rifles in the forest.
Image: Estonia’s weekend warriors are knowns as the ‘SAS’ because they train on Saturdays and Sundays
They said British civilians should also consider getting off their sofas and learning how to fight.
“It’s wrong to think that somebody else is coming to fight your war if you are not ready to defend yourself,” said Major Tanel Kapper, who commands the Estonian Defence League forces on the island.
Estonian military chiefs have doubled the size of their territorial defence force – the people who would support the much smaller professional army in a crisis – to 20,000 personnel after what Russia did in Ukraine two years ago.
That number comprises about 10,000 Defence League volunteers and the new addition of some 10,000 former conscript soldiers who are part of the military reserve.
‘We will kill as many of you as possible’
Polishing part of a rifle back at his base, a volunteer called Taavi, a father of two, said he decided to join the Defence League on Hiiumaa island along with about 14 friends last year in part as a response to the Ukraine war.
The construction worker said he did not want conflict, but was ready for combat if Russia invades.
“I have to take the weapon and try to protect my family, my home,” he said.
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A wake-up call from the Baltics?
Major Kapper had a warning for Moscow: “It will be a bloody mess if you come here. We will definitely kill as many of you as possible.”
As for whether he had a message to other NATO countries like the UK that maybe are not doing as much to bolster their defences, the officer said: “To wake up. It won’t stop in Ukraine. If we don’t stop them, then they will come further and further.”
Image: Latvian volunteers train at a base near Belarus
Latvia bulking up its military due to Russia threat
There is a similar sense of urgency in next door Latvia, which reintroduced conscription last year after becoming the only Baltic state to halt mandatory military service in 2006.
The country plans to double the size of its armed forces – professionals and reserves – to 61,000 by 2032.
“War [in Ukraine] is already happening, so it’s not a question: is Russia going to be aggressive? It already is aggressive,” said Krisjanis Karins, the Latvian foreign minister.
“The point of the draft is to beef up capable and equipped and trained reservists,” he told Sky News in an interview on the sidelines of a major security conference in Munich in February.
“It’s not replacing the professional army, it’s augmenting the professional army.”
Asked whether it would make a difference if the UK instated conscription, Mr Karins, a former prime minister, said: “I think it would make a difference if any European country and of course the larger countries, it would make a bigger difference.”
Sky News was invited to visit a training base in southeast Latvia, close to its border with Belarus, a close Russian ally, where a mix of conscripts and other recruits were going through a three-week basic training course with the National Guard.
Image: Latvian volunteers would offer support to the regular military during a time of war
‘Every man needs to at least try military life’
The National Guard is a branch of the armed forces that is made up of volunteers. At a time of war, they would offer support to the professional military.
“Bam! Bam! Bam!” the recruits shouted, rifles raised, mimicking the sound of gunshots, as they practised a response to an ambush on a muddy shooting range surrounded by forest.
Eduard, 18, was one of seven conscripts among the group of about 20 on the range. All seven were voluntary conscripts, rather than being ordered to serve.
“I think that every man in the world needs to at least try military life,” said Eduard.
A Latvian general explained how conscription is about much more than simply generating fresh boots on the ground – it is also about growing a sense of national service and a desire for each citizen to do their bit to help protect the country.
“Everyone has the right to serve – an obligation to serve – the nation,” said Major General Andis Dilans, the chief of the joint staff of the National Armed Forces, Latvia’s second most senior commander.
“This is really the cornerstone of democracy,” he said in an interview in the capital Riga.
“Therefore, we looked at this not just as a war-fighting force of the conscription, but looking at the connection between the public and the military in case of crisis, in case of war.”
Image: A Lithuanian military training exercise in a forest
How Lithuania borders a potential flashpoint
The final leg of our journey took us to the southwestern edge of Lithuania, which borders a heavily fortified Russian exclave called Kaliningrad.
The Russian territory also shares a border with Poland, another NATO state.
It means the only way for vehicles, such as lorries loaded with goods, coaches carrying passengers, or ordinary cars to travel between the exclave and mainland Russia is by transiting through Lithuania and into Belarus.
The crossing was calm when we visited, with a long queue of lorries on the Russian side, waiting to be allowed into Lithuania.
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A border guard said the number of vehicles – about 300 per day in total, moving in and out – had roughly halved since 2022 because Western sanctions had limited the types of goods that are permitted to be transited through Lithuania.
Communication between the guards on either side of a long wire, fence, topped in sections with barbed wire and bristling with cameras, had also been all but severed.
In the past, officials, who might have been stationed at the crossing point for two or three decades, would often speak with their Russian counterparts but that has stopped completely.
A mobile phone line still exists that can be called in an emergency, but the guard said that the Russian side does not tend to pick up.
Image: The Kaliningrad border
Another potential flashpoint is a nearby strip of land, about 60 miles long, that connects Kaliningrad with Belarus and is bordered by Lithuania and Poland.
It is called the Suwalki Gap.
The concern among NATO commanders is that if Russia were to capture the corridor, it would provide another way to cut off access to the Baltic states.
Gitanas Nauseda, Lithuania’s president, summed up the response to the threat next door.
“All Baltic countries, Poland and other countries of the eastern flank of the NATO do a lot in order to utilise all the possibilities of [the] collective defence system, called NATO,” he said in an interview.
“But we also do a lot individually by increasing our defence spending, by closely cooperating with our neighbours and my country is especially active in this field.”
It is why a growing number of citizens in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are volunteering to serve.
But their ability to deter Russia may depend on whether the citizens of other allies follow suit.
Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died aged 41.
In a statement to Sky’s US partner network NBC News on Friday, her family said she took her own life in Neergabby, Australia, where she had been living for several years.
“It is with utterly broken hearts that we announce that Virginia passed away last night at her farm in Western Australia,” her family said.
“She lost her life to suicide, after being a lifelong victim of sexual abuse and sex trafficking.
“Virginia was a fierce warrior in the fight against sexual abuse and sex trafficking. She was the light that lifted so many survivors.
“In the end, the toll of abuse is so heavy that it became unbearable for Virginia to handle its weight.”
Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
The duke has repeatedly denied the claims, and he has not been charged with any criminal offences.
In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.
Image: Prince Andrew has denied all claims of wrongdoing. File pic: Reuters
‘An incredible champion’
Sigrid McCawley, Ms Giuffre’s attorney, told NBC News that she “was much more than a client to me; she was a dear friend and an incredible champion for other victims”.
“Her courage pushed me to fight harder, and her strength was awe-inspiring,” she said. “The world has lost an amazing human being today.”
“Rest in peace, my sweet angel,” she added.
Dini von Mueffling, Giuffre’s representative, also told the outlet: “Virginia was one of the most extraordinary human beings I have ever had the honour to know.
“Deeply loving, wise, and funny, she was a beacon to other survivors and victims. She adored her children and many animals.
“She was always more concerned with me than with herself. I will miss her beyond words. It was the privilege of a lifetime to represent her.”
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Ms Giuffre said at the end of March she had four days to live after a car accident, posting on social media that “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure”. She was discharged from hospital eight days later.
Raised mainly in Florida, she said she was abused by a family friend early in life, which led to her living on the streets at times as a teenager.
She said that in 2000, she met Ghislaine Maxwell, a British socialite who was convicted in 2021 on federal sex trafficking and conspiracy charges and was sentenced to 20 years in prison.
Ms Giuffre said Maxwell then introduced her to Epstein and hired her as his masseuse, and said she was sex trafficked and sexually abused by him and associates around the world.
‘I am now a survivor’
After meeting her husband in 2002, while taking massage training in Thailand at what she said was Epstein’s behest, she moved to Australia and had a family.
She founded the sex trafficking victims’ advocacy charity SOAR in 2015, and is quoted on its website as saying: “I do this for victims everywhere.
“I am no longer the young and vulnerable girl who could be bullied. I am now a survivor, and nobody can ever take that away from me.”
:: Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
As the line of mourners moves slowly along behind him, Ciriaco Sarnelli peers at me from beneath the immaculate brim of his cap.
The military police chief looks, by any standards, magnificent – shoulders back and proudly wearing the black uniform of the Carabinieri.
“Our history goes back more than 200 years,” he says. “We remember our past, and our place. The only people with black uniforms are the priests, the judges and the Carabinieri.”
He leaves the rest unsaid – the Carabinieri sit at the heart of Italian cultural life.
Image: Ciriaco Sarnelli, Carabinieri military police chief
Once, they defended the borders of a young nation. Now, they have a new challenge that has its own weighty burden – to keep St Peter’s Square safe during the funeral of Pope Francis.
This is no easy task. Hundreds of thousands will descend upon the Vatican for the event.
Inside will be Donald Trump, Sir Keir Starmer, Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Prince William and dozens upon dozens of other dignitaries.
Outside will be the Carabinieri.
They won’t be alone – there are thousands of other police officers due to be assigned to protect the event – but the Carabinieri are affiliated to the military; the most highly-trained officers on duty.
Image: A member of the security personnel wields an anti-drone gun for the Pope’s funeral
“This is an extraordinary operation,” says Sarnelli, as we look out over the crowd. “So we have employed some special units that belong to Carabinieri – the bomb squad, a dogs unit, snipers and helicopters. We want to assure the people who are arriving here that they can take part in this event in the best way, in a secure way.”
He says they are ready for “common crimes” – like pickpockets in the crowd – but also “the biggest, terrifying events”.
He says there is “excellent coordination” with police forces from other countries.
Around him, his officers are smiling, chatting to tourists and Romans alike.
The security here is overt but friendly, even if I’m told there are also plenty of plain-clothed officers mingling within the crowd.
Guns and grins both on show.
A police helicopter circles above. In the port of Rome, a naval destroyer has been primed for action; there are fighter jets ready to take off.
You can watch full coverage of the funeral live on Sky News on Saturday
Image: Huge crowds have come from around the world to see the Pope’s body
If the impression is relaxed, the reality is different. The classic swan.
All the strands are pulled together from one place and, what’s more, it offers a perfect view of Vatican City.
From where I’m standing, I can see the front of St Peter’s Basilica, the side, and the roads around it. I can see the crowds coming in, and the crowds going out.
And I can see an anxious policeman drumming his fingers.
But we are not in St Peter’s and not even in the Vatican.
This is the high-security control room on the fifth floor of Rome’s police headquarters.
And from here, you can see everything.
Image: The control room from where security officials can see across the Italian capital
An array of screens are in front of us and, watching them, men and women, huddled over screens and all wearing contrasting uniforms.
Some are military, some national police, some wear the clothes of firefighters. A few are in plain clothes and there is even a man wearing the badge of the prison officers’ service.
This centre is a hub for collaboration and decision-making and it brings together every service that is involved in ensuring the safety and security of the funeral.
There is a Carabinieri officer here, as well as the Guardia di Finanza national police and the Roman force. The government’s secret intelligence service is represented here, too.
Elisabetta Accardo is from Rome’s police department. We talk against the gentle hubbub in the control room, colleagues pointing at screens and agreeing plans.
Image: Elisabetta Accardo, Rome Police control room spokeswoman
I ask when Italy last had to deal with a security operation on this scale, and she laughs. “Hundreds of years,” she says.
“It is unprecedented. The level of security is at the maximum.” She describes the plan as “structured three-dimensional security”.
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It is a plan that has been long in the making, but which has been reshaped over the past few days to react to the whims of the Pope’s final wishes.
It is, after all, more than a century since a pope was buried outside the walls of the Vatican.
You get the impression that the people designing the security plan could rather have done without having to add an hour-long procession through Rome into the plan.
But so be it.
By Saturday night, it will be done. Rome can start to get back to normal; the foreign leaders will be on their way home.
And the Rome police will breathe just a little bit easier.
The Kremlin has blamed Ukraine for a car bomb that killed a Russian general near Moscow hours before Donald Trump’s envoy was due to meet Vladimir Putin in the capital.
The death of Lieutenant General Yaroslav Moskalik is the second such fatal attack on a top Russian military officer in four months.
Russia’s top criminal investigation agency said he was killed by an explosive device placed in his car in Balashikha, just outside the capital.
Image: Yaroslav Moskalik. Pic: Russian Ministry of Defence
Moskalik was a deputy head of the main operational department in the General Staff of the Russian armed forces.
“The Kyiv regime once again simply shows its true nature. The Kyiv regime continues to be involved in terrorist activity on the territory of our country,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
He didn’t offer any evidence.
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“It shows once again that, despite the peace talks, we must be on guard and understand the nature of this regime.”
Ukraine has not responded to the killing.
Image: Investigators work at the scene where Lt Gen Yaroslav Moskalik was killed. Pic: AP
Investigative committee spokesperson Svetlana Petrenko said the explosive device was rigged with shrapnel, adding that investigators were at the scene.
Videos showed a vehicle burning in the courtyard of an apartment building and a body covered in a sheet could be seen on the pavement nearby.
Deadly attack is not a great look for the Kremlin
Explosions like this are happening with increasing frequency in Moscow. There have now been four since last summer, with high-ranking military figures the target each time.
The latest victim was another senior officer called Yaroslav Moskalik. He was a lieutenant general, and deputy head of the main operational department in the General Staff of Russia’s armed forces.
It’s unclear why he was targeted – it may simply be because of his seniority and apparent vulnerability.
As with previous the bombings, there is an obvious question: is it because of the war in Ukraine?
Kyiv hasn’t commented on this bombing, but they did claim responsibility for the one in December that killed a top Russian general.
Speaking to Sky News, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called it a “terrorist attack”, echoing language Moscow has used when describing similar attacks in the past.
The timing feels significant – coinciding with Steve Witkoff’s visit to the Russian capital to meet Vladimir Putin.
If it was Ukraine, could it be a way of signalling their displeasure at the way peace talks are progressing? Or an attempt to demonstrate how Moscow can still be hurt?
Either way, it’s not a great look for the Kremlin.
It comes after Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov was killed in December when a bomb hidden on an electric scooter parked outside his apartment building exploded as he left for his office.
Russian authorities blamed Ukraine for the killing of Kirillov, and Ukraine’s security agency acknowledged that it was behind that attack.
Kirillov was the chief of Russia’s radiation, biological and chemical protection forces, the special troops tasked with protecting the military from the enemy’s use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and ensuring operations in a contaminated environment.
His assistant also died in the attack.
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Friday’s bombing came as Mr Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met Mr Putin in Moscow to discuss a US-brokered peace plan for Ukraine.
The talks allowed Russia and the United States to “further bring their positions closer together” on “a number of international issues”, a Kremlin aide said.
The two sides discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between representatives of the Russian Federation and Ukraine”, Yuri Ushakov said.
The talks in Moscow lasted for three hours and were “constructive and useful”, he added.
Speaking on a flight to Italy for the Pope’s funeral, the US president said he hadn’t been fully briefed on Mr Witkoff and Mr Putin’s meeting – but added it was a “pretty good meeting”.
The meeting was their fourth encounter since February.
Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.