Ukraine war: Why the Baltic states on NATO’s frontline with Russia are urging their allies to ‘wake up’
The Baltic states have an urgent message for the UK and other NATO allies about the threat posed by Russia: “Wake up! It won’t stop in Ukraine.”
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are teaching more of their citizens how to fight and have even announced plans to build a defensive line, including bunkers, along hundreds of miles of border that separates their territories from their much larger neighbour.
Now, as concern grows within NATO about the potential for large-scale conflict returning to Europe, Sky News has travelled from northeast Estonia to southwest Lithuania to hear from soldiers, civilians and politicians who are preparing for a war they hope never to fight.
As former members of the Soviet Union, the Baltics have been sounding the alarm about the existential menace posed by Moscow ever since they joined the NATO alliance two decades ago.
Back then, though, no one really listened.
Instead, the UK and other allies were focused on the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan – countering insurgents and Islamist militants is a very different type of fight than a conventional war against a peer enemy like Russia.
Adding to a collective erosion in NATO’s defences, many European states, including Britain, significantly reduced stockpiles of Cold War-era weapons, such as tanks, artillery and ammunition, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, mistakenly believing they no longer needed to be ready to fight a war of survival at a moment’s notice.
Russia’s earlier invasion of Ukraine in 2014, with the capture of Crimea and seizure of swathes of the Donbas, started to change that calculation – but only very slowly.
People in Moscow show their support for Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Pic: Reuters
The concept of ‘deterrence by denial’
The alliance agreed to bolster its defences along the eastern flank of the Baltic states and Poland, with the deployment in 2017 of units of allied troops to all four countries – around 800 soldiers to each nation.
But this was done relatively cautiously – to minimise the risk of triggering an escalation of tensions directly between Moscow and the West as plenty of NATO states, including France and Germany, still had relatively close ties with Russia and did a lot of business.
As a result, the limited mission was not designed to prevent an invasion, but rather to provide a “tripwire” should Russian forces attack that would trigger a much larger allied response to then push them back out.
However, Vladimir Putin’s full-scale war in Ukraine on 24 February 2022 fundamentally altered that thinking too.
The allies realised once Russian troops had entered a country it would take a lot more effort to eject them, so they agreed to beef up their eastern defences even more and expanded them into four other nations.
The aim today is to prevent Russia from ever trying to invade – a concept known as “deterrence by denial”.
Throughout this evolution, the loudest voices inside NATO – urging allies to go further, faster and raising the alarm about Russia’s intentions – have been Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
They have also been amongst the strongest supporters of Ukraine and have warned that if Moscow prevails over Kyiv, it will likely try to test NATO’s defences next.
The site of a shopping centre in Kyiv that was bombed weeks after Russia’s invasion in 2022. Pic: Reuters
A potential soft spot for any Russian attack
The city of Narva lies on Estonia’s northeastern tip – right next door to Russia.
A vast, medieval castle, with large, stone walls and an Estonian flag fluttering high, stands at one edge of the city, next to a river that marks the border.
On the opposite bank is a second, similarly grand, historic castle, but it flies a Russian flag.
A crossing point, called the Friendship Bridge, connects Narva with the Russian city of Ivangorod.
It is only open to pedestrians after the Russian authorities closed their end to vehicle traffic for construction work at the start of February.
A historic castle in Estonia flies a Russian flag
Arnold Vaino, a police officer with the Estonian border guard, walked us on to the bridge, stopping just short of a red post that marks the halfway point and the start of Russia.
He recalled how he felt on the day the Kremlin launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine.
“Nobody feels comfortable when you hear that war has started,” he said. “But [we don’t feel] scared, for sure. But you open your eyes more wide.”
In an indication of the complexities of the geography and history of the region, the majority of residents in Narva speak Russian and some are sympathetic to Moscow.
It makes the city a potential soft spot for any Russian attack under the guise of coming to the aide of the Russian nationals who live in Narva.
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Any such move, though, would trigger an allied response under one of the founding principles of NATO – an attack on one is an attack on all.
There is no sense of fondness for the Russian government in most other parts of Estonia, including an island of about 9,000 people off the country’s western coast.
NATO commanders believe that Hiiumaa island could be another potential target for Moscow in any war with the West because of its strategic location in the Baltic Sea.
If Russian troops were to seize the territory, they would potentially have the ability to block access to the sea and isolate the Baltic states.
Such a prospect is one that the islanders are doing all they can to deter.
Estonian volunteers urge British civilians to learn to fight
We met a unit of citizen soldiers, faces painted army green, as they practised ambushes with rifles in the forest.
The volunteers – many of them middle-aged dads and the odd mum – are dubbed “the SAS” because they train on Saturdays and Sundays.
Estonia’s weekend warriors are knowns as the ‘SAS’ because they train on Saturdays and Sundays
They said British civilians should also consider getting off their sofas and learning how to fight.
“It’s wrong to think that somebody else is coming to fight your war if you are not ready to defend yourself,” said Major Tanel Kapper, who commands the Estonian Defence League forces on the island.
Estonian military chiefs have doubled the size of their territorial defence force – the people who would support the much smaller professional army in a crisis – to 20,000 personnel after what Russia did in Ukraine two years ago.
That number comprises about 10,000 Defence League volunteers and the new addition of some 10,000 former conscript soldiers who are part of the military reserve.
‘We will kill as many of you as possible’
Polishing part of a rifle back at his base, a volunteer called Taavi, a father of two, said he decided to join the Defence League on Hiiumaa island along with about 14 friends last year in part as a response to the Ukraine war.
The construction worker said he did not want conflict, but was ready for combat if Russia invades.
“I have to take the weapon and try to protect my family, my home,” he said.
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A wake-up call from the Baltics?
Major Kapper had a warning for Moscow: “It will be a bloody mess if you come here. We will definitely kill as many of you as possible.”
As for whether he had a message to other NATO countries like the UK that maybe are not doing as much to bolster their defences, the officer said: “To wake up. It won’t stop in Ukraine. If we don’t stop them, then they will come further and further.”
Latvian volunteers train at a base near Belarus
Latvia bulking up its military due to Russia threat
There is a similar sense of urgency in next door Latvia, which reintroduced conscription last year after becoming the only Baltic state to halt mandatory military service in 2006.
The country plans to double the size of its armed forces – professionals and reserves – to 61,000 by 2032.
“War [in Ukraine] is already happening, so it’s not a question: is Russia going to be aggressive? It already is aggressive,” said Krisjanis Karins, the Latvian foreign minister.
“The point of the draft is to beef up capable and equipped and trained reservists,” he told Sky News in an interview on the sidelines of a major security conference in Munich in February.
“It’s not replacing the professional army, it’s augmenting the professional army.”
Asked whether it would make a difference if the UK instated conscription, Mr Karins, a former prime minister, said: “I think it would make a difference if any European country and of course the larger countries, it would make a bigger difference.”
Sky News was invited to visit a training base in southeast Latvia, close to its border with Belarus, a close Russian ally, where a mix of conscripts and other recruits were going through a three-week basic training course with the National Guard.
Latvian volunteers would offer support to the regular military during a time of war
‘Every man needs to at least try military life’
The National Guard is a branch of the armed forces that is made up of volunteers. At a time of war, they would offer support to the professional military.
“Bam! Bam! Bam!” the recruits shouted, rifles raised, mimicking the sound of gunshots, as they practised a response to an ambush on a muddy shooting range surrounded by forest.
Eduard, 18, was one of seven conscripts among the group of about 20 on the range. All seven were voluntary conscripts, rather than being ordered to serve.
“I think that every man in the world needs to at least try military life,” said Eduard.
A Latvian general explained how conscription is about much more than simply generating fresh boots on the ground – it is also about growing a sense of national service and a desire for each citizen to do their bit to help protect the country.
“Everyone has the right to serve – an obligation to serve – the nation,” said Major General Andis Dilans, the chief of the joint staff of the National Armed Forces, Latvia’s second most senior commander.
“This is really the cornerstone of democracy,” he said in an interview in the capital Riga.
“Therefore, we looked at this not just as a war-fighting force of the conscription, but looking at the connection between the public and the military in case of crisis, in case of war.”
A Lithuanian military training exercise in a forest
How Lithuania borders a potential flashpoint
The final leg of our journey took us to the southwestern edge of Lithuania, which borders a heavily fortified Russian exclave called Kaliningrad.
The Russian territory also shares a border with Poland, another NATO state.
It means the only way for vehicles, such as lorries loaded with goods, coaches carrying passengers, or ordinary cars to travel between the exclave and mainland Russia is by transiting through Lithuania and into Belarus.
The crossing was calm when we visited, with a long queue of lorries on the Russian side, waiting to be allowed into Lithuania.
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A border guard said the number of vehicles – about 300 per day in total, moving in and out – had roughly halved since 2022 because Western sanctions had limited the types of goods that are permitted to be transited through Lithuania.
Communication between the guards on either side of a long wire, fence, topped in sections with barbed wire and bristling with cameras, had also been all but severed.
In the past, officials, who might have been stationed at the crossing point for two or three decades, would often speak with their Russian counterparts but that has stopped completely.
A mobile phone line still exists that can be called in an emergency, but the guard said that the Russian side does not tend to pick up.
The Kaliningrad border
Another potential flashpoint is a nearby strip of land, about 60 miles long, that connects Kaliningrad with Belarus and is bordered by Lithuania and Poland.
It is called the Suwalki Gap.
The concern among NATO commanders is that if Russia were to capture the corridor, it would provide another way to cut off access to the Baltic states.
Gitanas Nauseda, Lithuania’s president, summed up the response to the threat next door.
“All Baltic countries, Poland and other countries of the eastern flank of the NATO do a lot in order to utilise all the possibilities of [the] collective defence system, called NATO,” he said in an interview.
“But we also do a lot individually by increasing our defence spending, by closely cooperating with our neighbours and my country is especially active in this field.”
It is why a growing number of citizens in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are volunteering to serve.
But their ability to deter Russia may depend on whether the citizens of other allies follow suit.
World
Bodies of four hostages returned to Israel – and why finding others will be ‘massive challenge’
The families of 24 dead hostages are still waiting to have their bodies returned from Gaza.
Only four bodies were transferred by Hamas to Israel on Monday. It remains to be seen when the remains of the remaining hostages will be handed over.
Here’s what we know about the four hostages whose bodies have been returned, while the families of others who have been declared dead await word from Israeli authorities on the fate of their loved ones.
Gaza latest: ‘Six killed’ as Israeli troops open fire on ‘suspects’
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Jubilation as hostage families reunited
Who are the four hostages whose bodies have been found?
The bodies of Yossi Sharabi, Guy Illouz, Daniel Peretz and Bipin Joshi have been returned to Israel.
The Israeli military has officially identified the bodies of Mr Illouz and Mr Joshi.
The two men were both in their 20s when Hamas took then during the October 7 2023 attack on Israel that sparked the war.
Mr Illouz, who is from Israel, was taken from the Nova music festival, while Mr Joshi, a student from Nepal, was taken from a bomb shelter.
Israel said Mr Illouz died from his wounds while being held captive without proper medical treatment, while Mr Joshi was murdered in captivity during the first months of the war.
Palestinians walk past the rubble of destroyed buildings in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters
What about the remaining hostages’ bodies?
Hamas has said recovering the remaining bodies could take time, as not all burial sites are known. Israeli authorities have said some of those remains may not be located.
The Red Cross said it will take time to hand over the remains of hostages and detainees killed in the war, calling it a “massive challenge” considering the difficulties of finding bodies amid Gaza’s rubble.
“That’s an even bigger challenge than having the people alive being released. That’s a massive challenge,” said Christian Cardon, spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross.
He said it could take days or weeks – and there was a possibility some may never be found.
An international task force will work to locate the bodies of the deceased hostages who are not returned within 72 hours, said Gal Hirsch, Israel’s coordinator for the hostages and the missing.
What has been the response of hostages’ families?
The Israeli Hostages Families Forum has called for the suspension of the ceasefire agreement, saying “Hamas’s violation of the agreement must be met with a very serious response”.
“We demand all 28 hostages back. We will not give up on anyone, until the last hostage is returned,” it added.
Under US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire agreement, all the hostages – including the deceased – should be returned as part of the first phase of the ceasefire.
Read more:
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Songs of celebration in Tel Aviv as crowds greet hostages
Twin brothers Gali and Ziv Berman embraced after their release. Pic: IDF
Released Israeli hostage Omri Miran is reunited with his wife Lishay Miran-Lav. Pic: IDF
Release of living hostages brings pause to two years of war
On Monday, Hamas released all 20 living hostages, bringing a pause to two years of war that has levelled much of Gaza and killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.
Crowds in Khan Younis in southern Gaza cheer freed Palestinian prisoners released by Israel. Pics: Reuters
Tens of thousands of Israelis watched the hostage transfer at public screenings across the country. Tap on their pictures to read more about the hostages:
The hostages were exchanged for more than 1,900 Palestinian prisoners – including 250 serving life sentences for convictions for attacks on Israelis, as well as 1,700 Gazans detained during the war.
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Who are the released Palestinian prisoners?
Issues remain with ceasefire plan
The exchange of hostages and prisoners has raised hopes it marks the end of the bloody conflict between Israel and Hamas.
A second phase of the plan, which all sides have yet to agree on, could see Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza.
However, issues remain, such as whether Hamas will disarm, and who will govern Gaza.
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Trump addresses Knesset – key moments
Trump calls for new era of peace in Middle East
Mr Trump travelled to the region to celebrate the deal.
He received a rapturous welcome and multiple standing ovations as he addressed Israel’s parliament, though at one point he was heckled by two left-wing politicians who were ejected from the chamber after they interrupted his speech.
“This is a historic dawn of a new Middle East,” Mr Trump told the Knesset.
“Generations from now this will be remembered as the moment that everything began to change, and change very much for the better.”
Donald Trump gives a speech during the world leaders’ summit on ending the Gaza war. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump later travelled to the Egyptian Red Sea resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, where he called for a new era of peace in the Middle East, saying the region has “a once-in-a-lifetime chance to put the old feuds and bitter hatreds behind us”.
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Speaking to world leaders attending the summit, he urged them “to declare that our future will not be ruled by the fights of generations past”.
The war began when Hamas stormed into Israel on October 7 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage.
Israel invaded Gaza in retaliation, with airstrikes and ground assaults devastating much of the enclave and killing more than 67,000, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
Its figures do not differentiate between civilians and combatants but it says around half of those killed were women and children.
Two things can be true at the same time – an adage so apt for the past day.
This was the Trump show. There’s no question about that. It was a show called by him, pulled off for him, attended by leaders who had no other choice and all because he craves the ego boost.
Gaza deal signed – as it happened
But the day was also an unquestionable and game-changing geopolitical achievement.
World leaders, including Trump and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, pose for a family photo. Pic: Reuters
Trump stopped the war, he stopped the killing, he forced Hamas to release all the hostages, he demanded Israel to free prisoners held without any judicial process, he enabled aid to be delivered to Gaza, and he committed everyone to a roadmap, of sorts, ahead.
He did all that and more.
He also made the Israel-Palestine conflict, which the world has ignored for decades, a cause that European and Middle Eastern nations are now committed to invest in. No one, it seems, can ignore Trump.
Love him or loathe him, those are remarkable achievements.
‘Focus of a goldfish’
The key question now is – will he stay the course?
One person central to the negotiations which have led us to this point said to me last week that Trump has the “focus of a goldfish”.
Benjamin Netanyahu applauds while Trump addresses the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Pic: Reuters
It’s true that he tends to have a short attention span. If things are not going his way, and it looks likely that he won’t turn out to be the winner, he quickly moves on and blames someone else.
So, is there a danger of that with this? Let’s check in on it all six months from now (I am willing to be proved wrong – the Trump-show is truly hard to chart), but my judgement right now is that he will stay the course with this one for several reasons.
First, precisely because of the show he has created around this. Surely, he won’t want it all to fall apart now?
He has invested so much personal reputation in all this, I’d argue that even he wouldn’t want to drop it, even when the going gets tough – which it will.
Second, the Abraham Accords. They represented his signature foreign policy achievement in his first term – the normalisation of relations between Israel and the Muslim world.
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Trump’s peace summit: As it happened
Back in his first presidency, he tried to push the accords through without solving the Palestinian question. It didn’t work.
This time, he’s grasped the nettle. Now he wants to bring it all together in a grand bargain. He’s doing it for peace but also, of course, for the business opportunities – to help “make America great again”.
Peace – and prosperity – in the Middle East is good for America. It’s also good for Trump Inc. He and his family are going to get even richer from a prosperous Middle East.
Read more:
Trump hails ‘peace in the Middle East’
His team ripped up golden rule to pull off peace plan
Then there is the Nobel Peace Prize. He didn’t win it this year. He was never going to – nominations had to be in by January.
But next year he really could win – especially if he solves the Ukraine challenge too.
If he could bring his coexistence and unity vibe to his own country – rather than stoking the division – he may stand an even greater chance of winning.
One of the most high-profile and influential Palestinian politicians has told Sky News that Donald Trump is now “calling the shots” for Israel – and warned it “doesn’t make sense” to have a Western-led government ruling Gaza or the return of a “British mandate” under Sir Tony Blair.
Nasser al-Qudwa, 72, insisted Hamas should be involved in the territory’s future and that a new structure is needed that would allow a single authority to govern both the West Bank and Gaza.
Gaza deal signed – as it happened
It comes after Donald Trump hailed the signing of a peace deal in Egypt on Monday – the first phase of a plan to end the two-year Gaza war, which included the return of all 20 living Israeli hostages.
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Peace deal signed – but will it hold?
But there is much in the president’s 20-point proposal for Gaza still to be made real, chiefly a “board of peace” to oversee the creation of a transitional authority. It would be chaired by Mr Trump, who has floated a role for former UK prime minister Sir Tony and does not want a role for Hamas.
Al-Qudwa is strongly tipped for a return to the front line of politics, either within the existing Palestinian Authority or a new framework for Gaza.
Nasser al-Qudwa. Pic: Reuters
Since leaving his role as foreign minister for the Palestinian Authority in 2006, he has served in a variety of roles, including as a diplomat at the United Nations and as head of the Yasser Arafat Foundation.
Al-Qudwa is the nephew of Arafat, ex-chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, who died in 2004 aged 75.
Yasser Arafat at the White House in 1993. Pic: AP
Trump’s proposal ‘doesn’t make sense’
Al-Qudwa has just been welcomed back into the central committee of Fatah, which runs the Palestinian Authority, the governing body of the West Bank.
Asked how he feels about the prospect of an international body ruling Gaza, including both Mr Trump and Sir Tony, he told Sky News: “The Palestinian people do not deserve to be put under international trusteeship or guardianship.
“And definitely it does not deserve to be put on the British mandate again.
“The whole notion that you are bringing a Western land to build a lot in Gaza after all these sacrifices and all this bloodshed, it doesn’t make sense.”
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Blair asked about Gaza peace board
Netanyahu ‘not calling the shots’
Al-Qudwa is a strong advocate for a two-state solution and says the only way to stem the anger of Palestinian youths “is to give them a better life”.
Asked if he was confident Israel would observe the ceasefire and move into the second phase of the Trump plan, Al-Qudwa said: “I don’t trust anybody.
“But, to be frank with you, I don’t think it’s the Israeli leader that’s calling the shots.
“I think it’s Mr Donald Trump. And he has promised that repeatedly.
“It’s going to be difficult because the second phase is going to be more difficult. But I do hope that it’s going to happen because we need it to.”
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Trump asks Israel’s president to pardon Netanyahu
A role for Hamas
Al-Qudwa wants a new unitary governing body for the West Bank and Gaza “that is organically linked… to ensure the territorial integrity and the unity of the Palestinian people”.
He said under his model, Hamas would be invited to be part of the political landscape. It would be a different form of Hamas – a political party rather than an organisation with a military wing.
“It would be a different Hamas,” said al-Qudwa. “What is missing from the debate is the serious, comprehensive positions. I spoke about ending the role of Hamas in Gaza, ending the control of Hamas over Gaza in all its forms, political, administrative, as well as security, which means the official body needs to have control over weapons.
“And then I think it’s very right to transform into a political party and then participate in the Palestinian political life, including elections under Palestinian law enforcement.”
Donald Trump and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Pic: Reuters
Despite being closely linked to a future role in Gaza, al-Qudwa, who was born in Khan Younis in the south of the strip, said you would have to be “crazy” to want to work in the territory now.
He cast doubt over the plan to have elections within a year of the war coming to an end, saying it was impossible to imagine how you could hold such a logistically demanding event in a ruined country like Gaza.
Israel’s war in Gaza, launched following the killing of 1,200 people and capture of 251 more by Hamas during its October 7 attacks, has seen more than 67,000 Gazans killed, according to Palestinian health officials. Its figures don’t differentiate between civilians and combatants but says around half of the victims are women and children.
But al-Qudwa pointedly refused to deny speculation about his future ambitions.
Asked if he would be interested in becoming the next president of the Palestinian Authority, after Mahmoud Abbas, al-Qudwa simply smiled.
“There is no vacancy,” he said.
“That’s not a no,” I suggested. “It’s also not a yes,” he replied.
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