Any tax cuts made during this budget will “one way or another be undone after the election”, according to one economist.
Speaking to Sky News, Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, explained that – if it were not an election year – it is unlikely that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would be looking to trim the tax burden.
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Hunt said his budget would be “prudent and responsible” – but added that he wanted to “make some progress” on the “journey” started by the two pence cut to National Insurance announced in the autumn statement six months ago.
The chancellor is facing pressure to cut taxes to try and shift the polls in favour of his own party, which is languishing well behind Labour.
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Mr Johnson said: “I think this is going to be a political decision in an election year. If this weren’t an election year, I don’t think we’d be talking about tax cuts at all.”
He added: “If we weren’t looking at an election, I think he would be saying, let’s steady as she goes, let’s see where we are in a year or two.
“But given it is an election, I suspect we will get some tax cuts.
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“My guess, though, is that those will, one way or another, be undone after the election.
“The state of public finances, the state of public services, the shortage of money for everything from the health service to local government to social care indicates to me, we’re going to need more money over the next five years rather than less.”
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Budget 2024 explained
Changes to income tax and National Insurance have been mooted as potential options, as well the government taking Labour’s policy of scrapping the non-dom tax status.
But with the budget itself not due until Wednesday lunchtime, Sky News understands decisions are still being made in Downing Street about what to include.
The tricky financial picture means there has been limited space to make pre-budget announcements.
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0:50
Budget will be ‘prudent and responsible’
The tax burden is reaching record levels, with it expected to rise to its highest point since the Second World War before the end of this decade as the country looks to pay back heavy borrowing used for support during COVID-19 and the energy spike in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Mr Hunt claims that “we shouldn’t fall into the trap of thinking more spending buys us better public services” – and that the £800m investment will yield £1.8bn in benefits by 2029.
Torsten Bell, the head of the Resolution Foundation, worked in the Treasury as a civil servant before going to work for chancellor Alistair Darling in the financial crisis.
He explained to Sky News why Mr Hunt is having difficulty “rolling the pitch” – preparing the ground for the announcements in the budget.
Mr Bell said: “The reason why the chancellor is finding things quite difficult is two reasons; One is the difficult economic circumstance.
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4:58
What public finance figures mean for the budget
“We’re obviously coming out of a high inflation period, but we’re not seeing a lot of economic growth.
“And then on top of that, we’re in a world where they’re talking about tax cuts, but everybody around the country, everybody watching this knows that, the reality is this is an era of taxes going up.
“So it’s a difficult situation.”
Mr Hunt said he wants to cut taxes as it helps faster growth as seen in North America and Asia.
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The fast food chain LEON has taken a swipe at “unsustainable taxes” while moving to secure its future through the appointment of an administrator, leaving hundreds of jobs at risk.
The loss-making company, bought back from Asda by its co-founder John Vincent in October, said it had begun a process that aimed to bring forward the closure of unprofitable sites. It was to form part of a turnaround plan to restore the brand to its roots around natural foods.
It was unclear at this stage how many of its 71 restaurants – 44 of them directly owned – and approximately 1,100 staff would be affected by the plans for the so-called Company Voluntary Arrangement (CVA).
“The restructuring will involve the closure of several of LEON’s restaurants and a number of job losses”, a statement said.
“The company has created a programme to support anyone made redundant.”
It added: “LEON and Quantuma intend to spend the next few weeks discussing the plans with its landlords and laying out options for the future of the Company.
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“LEON then plans to emerge from administration as a leaner business that can return to its founding values and principles more easily.
“In the meantime, all the group’s restaurants remain open, serving customers as usual. The LEON grocery business will not be affected in any way by the CVA.”
Mr Vincent said. “If you look at the performance of LEON’s peers, you will see that everyone is facing challenges – companies are reporting significant losses due to working patterns and increasingly unsustainable taxes.”
Mr Vincent sold the chain to Asda in 2021 for £100m but it struggled, like rivals, to make headway after the pandemic and cost of living crisis that followed the public health emergency.
The hospitality sector has taken aim at the chancellor’s business rates adjustments alongside heightened employer national insurance contributions and minimum wage levels, accusing the government of placing jobs and businesses in further peril.
Overall, water firms face a sector-wide revenue reduction of nearly £309m as a result of Ofwat’s determination. Thames Water’s £187.1m cut is the largest revenue reduction.
This will take effect from next year and up to 2030 as part of water companies’ regulator-approved five-year spending and investment plans.
The downward revenue revision has been made as Ofwat believes the companies will perform better than first thought and therefore require less money.
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Better financial performance is ultimately good news for customers.
The change published on Wednesday is a technical update; the initial revenue projections published in December 2024 were based on projected financial performance but after financial results were published in the summer and Ofwat was able to apply these figures.
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1:32
Is Thames Water a step closer to nationalisation?
Thames Water and industry body Water UK have been contacted for comment.
A huge takeover that would rock the entertainment industry looks imminent, with Netflix and Paramount fighting over Warner Bros Discovery (WBD).
Streaming giant Netflix announced it had agreed a $72bn (£54bn) deal for WBD’s film and TV studios on 5 December, only for Paramount to sweep in with a $108.4bn (£81bn) bid several days later.
The takeover saga isn’t far removed from a Hollywood plot; with multi-billionaires negotiating in boardrooms, politicians on all sides expressing their fears for the public and the US president looming large, expected to play a significant role.
“Whichever way this deal goes, it will certainly be one of the biggest media deals in history. It will shake up the established TV and film norms and will have global implications,” Sky News’ US correspondent Martha Kelner said on the Trump 100 podcast.
So what do we know about the bids, why are they controversial – and how is Donald Trump involved?
Why is Warner Bros up for sale?
WBD’s board first announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October after a summer of hushed speculation.
Back in June, WBD announced its plan to split into two companies: one for its TV, film studios, and HBO Max streaming services, and one for the Discovery element of the business, primarily comprising legacy TV channels that air cartoons, news, and sports.
It came amid the cable industry’s continued struggles at the hands of streaming services, and CEO David Zaslav suggested splitting into two companies would give WBD’s brands the “sharper focus and strategic flexibility they need to compete most effectively in today’s evolving media landscape”.
The company’s long-term strategic initiatives have also been stifled by its estimated $35bn of debt. This wasn’t helped by the WarnerMedia and Discovery merger in 2022, which led to it becoming Warner Bros Discovery.
Image: WBD’s announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October. Pic: iStock
What we know about the bids
The $72bn bid from Netflix is for the first division of the business, which would give it the rights to worldwide hits like the Harry Potter and Game of Thrones franchises – and Warner Bros’ extensive back catalogue of movies.
If the deal were to happen, it would not be finalised until the split is complete, and Discovery Global, including channels like CNN, will not form part of the merger.
Paramount’s $108.4bn offer is what’s known as a hostile bid. This means it went directly to shareholders with a cash offer for the entirety of the company, asking them to reject the deal with Netflix.
Image: Ted Sarandos, CEO of Netflix. Pic: Reuters
This deal would involve rival US news channels CBS and CNN being brought under the same parent company.
Netflix’s cash and stock deal is valued at $27.75 (£20.80) per Warner share, giving it a total enterprise value of $82.7bn (£62bn), including debt.
But Paramount says its deal will pay $30 (£22.50) cash per share, representing $18bn (£13.5bn) more in cash than its rivals are offering.
Paramount claims to have tried several times to bid for WBD through its board, but said it launched the hostile bid after hearing of Netflix’s offer because the board had “never engaged meaningfully”.
Image: David Zaslav, CEO and president of Warner Bros Discovery. Pic: Reuters
Why are politicians and experts concerned?
The US government will have a big say on who ultimately buys WBD, as Paramount and Netflix will likely face the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Antitrust Division, a federal agency which scrutinises business deals to ensure fair competition.
Republicans and Democrats have voiced concerns over the potential monopolisation of streaming and the impact it would have on cinemas if Netflix – already the world’s biggest streaming service by market share – were to take over WBD.
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Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren said the deal “would create one massive media giant with control of close to half of the streaming market – threatening to force Americans into higher subscription prices and fewer choices over what and how they watch, while putting American workers at risk”.
Similarly, Representative Pramila Jayapal, who co-chairs the House Monopoly Busters Caucus, called the deal a “nightmare,” adding: “It would mean more price hikes, ads, and cookie-cutter content, less creative control for artists, and lower pay for workers.”
Netflix’s business model of prioritising streaming over cinemas has caused consternation in Hollywood.
The screen actors union SAG-AFTRA said the merger “raises many serious questions” for actors, while the Directors Guild of America said it also had “concerns”.
Experts suggest there’s less of a concern with the Paramount deal when it comes to a streaming monopoly, because its Paramount+ service is smaller and has less of an international footprint than Netflix.
And while Mr Trump himself will not be directly involved, he appointed those in the DOJ Antitrust Division, and they have the authority to block or challenge takeovers.
However, his potential influence isn’t sitting well with some experts due to his ties with key players on the Paramount side.
Image: Larry Ellison (centre left) in the White House with Trump. Pic: Reuters
Paramount is run by David Ellison, the son of the Oracle tech billionaire (and world’s second-richest man) Larry Ellison, who is a close ally of Mr Trump.
Additionally, Affinity Partners, an investment firm run by Mr Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, would be investing in the deal.
Also participating would be funds controlled by the governments of three unnamed Persian Gulf countries, widely reported as Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar – countries the Trump family company has struck deals with this year.
Image: David Ellison, CEO of Paramount Skydance. Pic: Reuters
Critics of the Trump’s administration has accused it of being transactional, with the president known to hold grudges over those who are critical of him, however, Mr Trump told reporters on 8 December that he has not spoken with Mr Kushner about WBD, adding that neither Netflix nor Paramount “are friends of mine”.
John Mayo, an antitrust expert at Georgetown University, suggested the scrutiny by the Antitrust Division would be serious whichever offer is approved by shareholders, and that he thinks experts there will keep partisanship out of their decisions despite the politically charged atmosphere.
What happens next?
WBD must now advise shareholders whether Paramount’s offer constitutes a superior offer by 22 December.
If the company decides that Paramount’s offer is superior, Netflix would have the opportunity to match or beat it.
WBD would have to pay Netflix a termination fee of $2.8bn (£2.10bn) if it decides to scrap the deal.
Shareholders have until 8 January 2026 to vote on Paramount’s offer.