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Any tax cuts made during this budget will “one way or another be undone after the election”, according to one economist.

Speaking to Sky News, Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, explained that – if it were not an election year – it is unlikely that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would be looking to trim the tax burden.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Hunt said his budget would be “prudent and responsible” – but added that he wanted to “make some progress” on the “journey” started by the two pence cut to National Insurance announced in the autumn statement six months ago.

The chancellor is facing pressure to cut taxes to try and shift the polls in favour of his own party, which is languishing well behind Labour.

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Mr Johnson said: “I think this is going to be a political decision in an election year. If this weren’t an election year, I don’t think we’d be talking about tax cuts at all.”

He added: “If we weren’t looking at an election, I think he would be saying, let’s steady as she goes, let’s see where we are in a year or two.

“But given it is an election, I suspect we will get some tax cuts.

More on Budget 2024

“My guess, though, is that those will, one way or another, be undone after the election.

“The state of public finances, the state of public services, the shortage of money for everything from the health service to local government to social care indicates to me, we’re going to need more money over the next five years rather than less.”

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Budget 2024 explained

Changes to income tax and National Insurance have been mooted as potential options, as well the government taking Labour’s policy of scrapping the non-dom tax status.

But with the budget itself not due until Wednesday lunchtime, Sky News understands decisions are still being made in Downing Street about what to include.

The tricky financial picture means there has been limited space to make pre-budget announcements.

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Budget will be ‘prudent and responsible’

The tax burden is reaching record levels, with it expected to rise to its highest point since the Second World War before the end of this decade as the country looks to pay back heavy borrowing used for support during COVID-19 and the energy spike in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Mr Hunt has already announced plans for an £800m package of technology reforms which government hopes will free up public sector workers.

Mr Hunt claims that “we shouldn’t fall into the trap of thinking more spending buys us better public services” – and that the £800m investment will yield £1.8bn in benefits by 2029.

Torsten Bell, the head of the Resolution Foundation, worked in the Treasury as a civil servant before going to work for chancellor Alistair Darling in the financial crisis.

He explained to Sky News why Mr Hunt is having difficulty “rolling the pitch” – preparing the ground for the announcements in the budget.

Mr Bell said: “The reason why the chancellor is finding things quite difficult is two reasons; One is the difficult economic circumstance.

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What public finance figures mean for the budget

“We’re obviously coming out of a high inflation period, but we’re not seeing a lot of economic growth.

“And then on top of that, we’re in a world where they’re talking about tax cuts, but everybody around the country, everybody watching this knows that, the reality is this is an era of taxes going up.

“So it’s a difficult situation.”

Mr Hunt said he wants to cut taxes as it helps faster growth as seen in North America and Asia.

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“But it would be deeply unconservative to cut taxes in a way that increased borrowing that wasn’t fully funded,” the chancellor said.

“If I think of the great tax-cutting budgets of the past – Nigel Lawson’s budget in 1988.

“The reason that was so significant is because those tax cuts were permanent and people need to know that these are tax cuts you can really afford.

“So it will be responsible and everything I do will be affordable.”

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Business

High street giants plot new warning to Treasury over retail jobs

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High street giants plot new warning to Treasury over retail jobs

Retail giants including Asda, Marks & Spencer, Primark and Tesco will mount a new year campaign to warn Rachel Reeves that plans to hike business rates on larger shops will put jobs and stores under threat.

Sky News has learnt that some of Britain’s biggest chains – which also include J Sainsbury, Morrisons and Kingfisher-owned B&Q – have agreed to revive a group called the Retail Jobs Alliance (RJA).

Sources said the RJA, which was established to push for reform of Britain’s archaic business rates regime, is expected to engage with the Treasury in the coming weeks to say that a wave of tax rises and regulatory changes will threaten investment by major retailers in economically deprived areas of the country.

They intend to produce analysis showing many of the stores with so-called rateable values above a new £500,000 threshold are located in areas which rely on retailers for employment opportunities.

The revamped coalition is expected to be launched in January and is likely to include other high street names, according to insiders.

It is said to be coordinating its plans with the British Retail Consortium (BRC), the industry’s leading trade body.

In total, the RJA’s members employ more than a million people across Britain and account for a significant proportion of the stores with rateable values in excess of the proposed threshold.

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One source close to the group’s plans said it intended to highlight that the higher business rates multiplier contradicted Labour’s manifesto pledge to “[level] the playing field between high street and online retailers”.

The latest intervention by retail bosses will come after weeks of vocal complaints about the impact of Ms Reeves’s maiden budget on the sector.

Last month, a letter signed by dozens of industry chiefs including from Boots and Next said the budget would pile £7bn of extra costs on to them.

These included a £2.3bn hit from changes to employers’ national insurance, £2.73bn from an increase in the national living wage and a £2bn packaging levy bill.

Retailers have since queued up to warn that consumers will face rising prices when the tax changes come into force in April.

Stuart Machin, the M&S chief executive, and Andrew Higginson, the JD Sports Fashion and BRC chair, have been among those publicly critical of the new measures.

Tesco alone faces having to pay £1bn in extra employer national insurance contributions during this parliament.

This week, ShoeZone, a footwear chain, said it would close 20 shops as a result of poor trading and the increased costs announced in the budget.

The hospitality industry has also highlighted the possibility of price hikes and job losses after the chancellor delivered her statement on 30 October.

In response to the growing business backlash, Ms Reeves told the CBI’s annual conference last month that she was “not coming back with more borrowing or more taxes”.

The RJA was initially put together in 2022 by WPI Strategy, a London-based public affairs firm.

None of the members of the RJA contacted by Sky News this weekend would comment.

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Surprisingly low retail sales in key Christmas shopping month – ONS

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Surprisingly low retail sales in key Christmas shopping month - ONS

The UK’s retail sales recovery was smaller than expected in the key Christmas shopping month of November, official figures show.

Retail sales rose just 0.2% last month despite discounting events in the run-up to Black Friday. It followed a 0.7% fall seen in October, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Sales growth of 0.5% had been forecast by economists.

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Behind the fall was a steep drop in clothing sales, which fell 2.6% to the lowest level since the COVID lockdown month of January 2022.

Sales have still not recovered to levels before the pandemic. Compared with February 2020, volumes are down 1.6%.

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It was economic rather than weather factors behind this as retailers told the ONS they faced tough trading conditions.

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Christmas more expensive this year?

For the first time in three months, however, there was a boost in food store sales, and supermarkets in particular. It was also a good month for household goods retailers, most notably furniture shops, the ONS said.

Clothes became more expensive in November, data from earlier this week demonstrated, and it was these price rises that contributed to overall inflation rising again – topping 2.6%.

Retail sales figures are of significance as the data measures household consumption, the largest expenditure across the UK economy.

The data can also help track how consumers feel about their finances and the economy more broadly.

Industry body the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said higher energy bills and low consumer sentiment impacted spending.

The BRC’s director of insight Kris Hamer said it was a “shaky” start to the festive season.

Shoppers were holding off on purchases until full Black Friday offers kicked in, he added.

The period in question covers discounting coming up to Black Friday but not the actual Friday itself as the ONS examined the four weeks from 27 October to 23 November.

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Car production falls in UK for ninth month in a row, SMMT data shows – after worst November for industry since 1980

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Car production falls in UK for ninth month in a row, SMMT data shows - after worst November for industry since 1980

UK car manufacturing fell again in November, the ninth month of decline in a row, according to industry data.

A total of 64,216 cars were produced in UK factories last month, 27,711 fewer than in November last year – a 30% drop, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

The figures also mean it was the worst November for UK car production since 1980, when 62,728 vehicles were produced.

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It comes after the government launched a review into its electric car mandate – a system of financial penalties levied against car makers if zero-emission vehicles make up less than 22% of all sales to encourage electric vehicle (EV) production.

The mandate will rise to 80% of all sales by 2030 and 100% by 2035.

But car manufacturers have long expressed unhappiness with the target, saying the consumer demand is not there and EVs are costlier to produce.

Separate figures from the SMMT suggested a £5.8bn hit to the sector from the EV mandate.

Despite the criticism, EV sales goals were surpassed last month. One in every four new cars sold was an electric vehicle.

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Is Europe’s car industry in crisis?

The impact of this reduced production could be visible in the last month from the announcement of 800 job cuts from Ford UK and Vauxhall‘s Luton plant closure.

The problems are not specific to the UK as European makers also face weaker EV demand than anticipated and competition from Chinese imports.

High borrowing costs and comparatively more expensive raw materials have worsened the problem.

Bosch – the world’s biggest car parts supplier – also reported the loss of 5,500 jobs last month, predominantly in Germany.

In October Volkswagen revealed plans to shut at least three factories in Germany and lay off tens of thousands of staff.

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