Any tax cuts will need to be ‘undone’ after election, economist claims

Published

2 months ago

March 4, 2024

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Any tax cuts made during this budget will “one way or another be undone after the election”, according to one economist.

Speaking to Sky News, Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, explained that – if it were not an election year – it is unlikely that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would be looking to trim the tax burden.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Hunt said his budget would be “prudent and responsible” – but added that he wanted to “make some progress” on the “journey” started by the two pence cut to National Insurance announced in the autumn statement six months ago.

The chancellor is facing pressure to cut taxes to try and shift the polls in favour of his own party, which is languishing well behind Labour.

Mr Johnson said: “I think this is going to be a political decision in an election year. If this weren’t an election year, I don’t think we’d be talking about tax cuts at all.”

He added: “If we weren’t looking at an election, I think he would be saying, let’s steady as she goes, let’s see where we are in a year or two.

“But given it is an election, I suspect we will get some tax cuts.

“My guess, though, is that those will, one way or another, be undone after the election.

“The state of public finances, the state of public services, the shortage of money for everything from the health service to local government to social care indicates to me, we’re going to need more money over the next five years rather than less.”

Changes to income tax and National Insurance have been mooted as potential options, as well the government taking Labour’s policy of scrapping the non-dom tax status.

But with the budget itself not due until Wednesday lunchtime, Sky News understands decisions are still being made in Downing Street about what to include.

The tricky financial picture means there has been limited space to make pre-budget announcements.

The tax burden is reaching record levels, with it expected to rise to its highest point since the Second World War before the end of this decade as the country looks to pay back heavy borrowing used for support during COVID-19 and the energy spike in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Mr Hunt has already announced plans for an £800m package of technology reforms which government hopes will free up public sector workers.

Mr Hunt claims that “we shouldn’t fall into the trap of thinking more spending buys us better public services” – and that the £800m investment will yield £1.8bn in benefits by 2029.

Torsten Bell, the head of the Resolution Foundation, worked in the Treasury as a civil servant before going to work for chancellor Alistair Darling in the financial crisis.

He explained to Sky News why Mr Hunt is having difficulty “rolling the pitch” – preparing the ground for the announcements in the budget.

Mr Bell said: “The reason why the chancellor is finding things quite difficult is two reasons; One is the difficult economic circumstance.

“We’re obviously coming out of a high inflation period, but we’re not seeing a lot of economic growth.

“And then on top of that, we’re in a world where they’re talking about tax cuts, but everybody around the country, everybody watching this knows that, the reality is this is an era of taxes going up.

“So it’s a difficult situation.”

Mr Hunt said he wants to cut taxes as it helps faster growth as seen in North America and Asia.

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“But it would be deeply unconservative to cut taxes in a way that increased borrowing that wasn’t fully funded,” the chancellor said.

“If I think of the great tax-cutting budgets of the past – Nigel Lawson’s budget in 1988.

“The reason that was so significant is because those tax cuts were permanent and people need to know that these are tax cuts you can really afford.

“So it will be responsible and everything I do will be affordable.”

Business

Thames Water investors to quit boards amid spectre of bailout

Published

19 hours ago

May 15, 2024

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Thames Water investors to quit boards amid spectre of bailout

Representatives of Thames Water’s multinational syndicate of shareholders are poised to quit as directors of its corporate entities after refusing to inject the billions of pounds of funding required to bail it out.

Sky News has learnt that a number of board members at companies connected to Kemble Water Finance, Thames’s parent, are expected to resign in the coming days.

City sources described the move as “the logical next step” after the owners of Britain’s biggest water utility said they would not commit more than £3bn to help upgrade its ageing infrastructure and shore up its debt-laden balance sheet.

A default on part of Thames Water‘s holding company debts last month has raised the prospect that the company is heading towards special administration, a form of insolvency that would effectively leave the government liable for managing a utility firm which serves nearly a quarter of Britain’s population.

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Thames Water is owned by a group of sovereign wealth funds and pension funds from countries including Abu Dhabi, Australia, Britain, Canada and China.

A number of the investors are represented on boards which sit at various points in the group’s labyrinthine capital structure.

It was unclear on Wednesday whether Michael McNicholas, a representative of the giant Canadian pension fund Omers and who sits on the board of Thames Water Utilities Limited, was among those in the process of stepping down.

Along with the rest of the privately owned water industry, Thames Water faces a crucial moment next month when Ofwat, the industry regulator, publishes its draft determination on companies’ five-year business plans.

The draft rulings will be subject to negotiation before final versions are published in December.

Thames Water and a spokesman for Kemble declined to comment.

Business

Royal Mail ‘minded’ to accept £3.5bn takeover proposal by Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky

Published

20 hours ago

May 15, 2024

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Royal Mail 'minded' to accept £3.5bn takeover proposal by Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky

The owner of Royal Mail has said it is “minded” to accept a revised takeover bid by Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky.

The latest offer from Mr Kretinsky’s investment firm EP Group values the Royal Mail parent company International Distribution Services (IDS) at £3.5bn.

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Mr Kretinsky’s firm already owns most of IDS as a 27.6% shareholder but wishes to buy the remaining shares.

An earlier offer of £3.20 a share had been rejected last month for being too low.

But now he has offered to pay £3.60 for each share. The day before the original offer was made a share in IDS cost £2.14.

An extra shareholder pay out of 8 pence a share has been offered by EP Group, if the deal closes, as has a 2 pence per share payment to every stakeholder, expected to be paid in September.

It would bring the total value of an IDS share to 73% more than it cost before the prospect of a buyout was raised.

‘Good value’

“Having considered the proposal, the board has indicated to EP Group that it would be minded to recommend an offer to IDS shareholders”, the IDS board said.

The price is “fair” and reflects the value of current growth plans, the IDS chairman said.

Consideration was given by the board to the national significance of Royal Mail as the operator of the postal network.

“The board is particularly mindful of Royal Mail’s unique heritage and responsibilities as the designated universal service provider in the United Kingdom and a key part of national infrastructure”, it said.

In assessing the proposal, the board has also been very mindful of the impact on Royal Mail and GLS and their respective stakeholders and employees, as well as broader public interest factors”.

EP Group has until 29 May to advance or withdraw its takeover bid.

Who is Daniel Kretinsky?

There has already been scrutiny of Mr Kretinsky’s part ownership in the postal company but a government national security concerns review into his investment led to no intervention.

He also owns parts of West Ham Football Club and Sainsbury’s.

EP Group, which he controls, has financial interests in energy, logistics, and food retail.

Business

West has ‘good hand in China economic battlefield but it doesn’t have to be war’

Published

22 hours ago

May 15, 2024

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West has 'good hand in China economic battlefield but it doesn't have to be war'

The boss of the world’s biggest bank has told Sky News that Western economies have a “good hand” in the “economic battlefield” with China but declared it does not have to be war.

In a wide-ranging interview with Sky’s Wilfred Frost, chief executive and chairman of JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon said the West was going to have a “hard time” as long as China had close ties with Russia.

But he said it was well placed due to the resilience of their collective economies and long-standing partnerships, such as NATO.

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However, he warned of the dangers of fragmentation since Donald Trump, when US president, pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017.

He also said that Joe Biden’s administration should have worked with allies over the effects of his Inflation Reduction Act.

The massive programme of incentives to bolster the green economy had the effect of taking investment out of Europe at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine was dominating the agenda.

The bank boss warned too of a backlash from China over US tariffs against its electric cars and solar panels announced just this week, arguing that a joint approach from western powers over China more generally would carry more weight.

Mr Dimon, who has run JPMorgan since 2005 and is widely seen as the most influential boss of a financial services company in the United States, said: “We have competition with China.

“I think the American government is doing the right thing to fully engage. That doesn’t mean the Chinese are going to like everything we do just like we don’t like everything they do but it doesn’t have to be war, it can be tough competition and we should be prepared for that.”

“The most important thing”, he added, “is that we do it together”.

“They’re not an enemy, you know, but they’re competing. They want a different world than we want. And I think they want a different world than we want in the Western world… it’s worth fighting for.”

“We all made a little bit of mistake in how we kind of expected them after WTO (World Trade Organisation) to become more Western and things like that. It’s okay. Don’t cry over spilled milk,” he concluded.

Mr Dimon was speaking 24 hours after the US-based bank, which has 22,000 staff and a 200-year history in the UK market, announced £40m in new investments to help connect young people and underserved communities to economic opportunities.

They followed the opening of a new tech centre in Glasgow.

JPMorgan Chase – perhaps best-known in this country for its Chase retail division – is the biggest bank in the world by market value with a capitalisation of almost $600bn (£475bn).

Mr Dimon, who was initially critical of Brexit following the UK’s split from the EU, spoke of the bank’s continuing commitment to the country having called the future of its UK operations into question in 2021.

Asked about the looming election, he said that talks with Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer had left him in no doubt that both the Conservatives and Labour were “pro business”.

He described how growing economies benefits everybody as it allows for investment.

“Everybody I heard… Conservative and Labour, (is) talking about growing the economy, technology, research and developments, simplifying regulations, making it easier for people to start businesses and grow businesses, making sure schools educate… those policies work,” he said.