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Any tax cuts made during this budget will “one way or another be undone after the election”, according to one economist.

Speaking to Sky News, Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, explained that – if it were not an election year – it is unlikely that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would be looking to trim the tax burden.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Hunt said his budget would be “prudent and responsible” – but added that he wanted to “make some progress” on the “journey” started by the two pence cut to National Insurance announced in the autumn statement six months ago.

The chancellor is facing pressure to cut taxes to try and shift the polls in favour of his own party, which is languishing well behind Labour.

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Mr Johnson said: “I think this is going to be a political decision in an election year. If this weren’t an election year, I don’t think we’d be talking about tax cuts at all.”

He added: “If we weren’t looking at an election, I think he would be saying, let’s steady as she goes, let’s see where we are in a year or two.

“But given it is an election, I suspect we will get some tax cuts.

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“My guess, though, is that those will, one way or another, be undone after the election.

“The state of public finances, the state of public services, the shortage of money for everything from the health service to local government to social care indicates to me, we’re going to need more money over the next five years rather than less.”

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Budget 2024 explained

Changes to income tax and National Insurance have been mooted as potential options, as well the government taking Labour’s policy of scrapping the non-dom tax status.

But with the budget itself not due until Wednesday lunchtime, Sky News understands decisions are still being made in Downing Street about what to include.

The tricky financial picture means there has been limited space to make pre-budget announcements.

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Budget will be ‘prudent and responsible’

The tax burden is reaching record levels, with it expected to rise to its highest point since the Second World War before the end of this decade as the country looks to pay back heavy borrowing used for support during COVID-19 and the energy spike in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Mr Hunt has already announced plans for an £800m package of technology reforms which government hopes will free up public sector workers.

Mr Hunt claims that “we shouldn’t fall into the trap of thinking more spending buys us better public services” – and that the £800m investment will yield £1.8bn in benefits by 2029.

Torsten Bell, the head of the Resolution Foundation, worked in the Treasury as a civil servant before going to work for chancellor Alistair Darling in the financial crisis.

He explained to Sky News why Mr Hunt is having difficulty “rolling the pitch” – preparing the ground for the announcements in the budget.

Mr Bell said: “The reason why the chancellor is finding things quite difficult is two reasons; One is the difficult economic circumstance.

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What public finance figures mean for the budget

“We’re obviously coming out of a high inflation period, but we’re not seeing a lot of economic growth.

“And then on top of that, we’re in a world where they’re talking about tax cuts, but everybody around the country, everybody watching this knows that, the reality is this is an era of taxes going up.

“So it’s a difficult situation.”

Mr Hunt said he wants to cut taxes as it helps faster growth as seen in North America and Asia.

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“But it would be deeply unconservative to cut taxes in a way that increased borrowing that wasn’t fully funded,” the chancellor said.

“If I think of the great tax-cutting budgets of the past – Nigel Lawson’s budget in 1988.

“The reason that was so significant is because those tax cuts were permanent and people need to know that these are tax cuts you can really afford.

“So it will be responsible and everything I do will be affordable.”

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Former Centrica chief Laidlaw in frame to chair embattled BP

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Former Centrica chief Laidlaw in frame to chair embattled BP

Sam Laidlaw, the former boss of Centrica, is among the candidates being considered as the next chairman of BP, Britain’s besieged oil and gas exploration giant.

Sky News has learnt that Mr Laidlaw is being considered by BP board members as a potential successor to Helge Lund, who announced in April that he would step down.

BP’s chair search comes with the £62bn oil major in a state of crisis, as industry predators circle and the pace of its strategic transformation being interrogated by shareholders.

Elliott Management, the activist investor, snapped up a multibillion pound stake in BP earlier this year and is pushing its chief executive, Murray Auchincloss, to accelerate spending cuts and ditch a string of renewable energy commitments.

Mr Lund’s departure will come after nearly a quarter of BP’s shareholders opposed his re-election at its annual meeting in April – an unusually large protest given that his intention to step down had already been announced.

BP’s senior independent director – the Aviva chief executive Amanda Blanc – is said to be moving “at pace” to complete the recruitment process.

A number of prominent candidates are understood to be in discussions with headhunters advising BP on the search.

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Mr Laidlaw would be a logical choice to take the role, having transformed Centrica, the owner of British Gas, during his tenure, which ended in 2014.

Since then, he has had a long stint – which recently concluded – on the board of miner Rio Tinto, which has been fending off activist calls to abandon its London listing.

He also established, and then sold, Neptune Energy, an oil company which was acquired by Italy’s Eni for nearly £4bn in 2023.

Last December, Mr Laidlaw was appointed chairman of AWE, the government-owned body which oversees Britain’s nuclear weapons capability.

He also has strong family connections to BP, with his father, Christopher Laidlaw, having served as its deputy chairman during a long business career.

One person close to BP said the younger Mr Laidlaw had been approached about chairing the company during its previous recruitment process but had ruled himself out because of his Neptune Energy role.

The status of his engagement with BP’s search was unclear on Saturday.

Another person said to have been approached is Ken MacKenzie, who recently retired as chairman of the mining giant BHP.

Mr MacKenzie headed BHP during a period when Elliott held a stake in the company, and is said to have a good working relationship with the investor.

Shares in BP have continued their downward trajectory over the last year, having fallen by nearly a fifth during that period.

The company’s valuation slump is reported to have drawn renewed interest in a possible takeover bid, with rivals Shell and ExxonMobil among those said to have “run the numbers” in recent months.

Reports of such interest have not elicited any formal response, suggesting that any deal is conceptual at this stage.

BP is racing to sell assets including Castrol, its lubricants division, which could command a price of about $8bn.

This weekend, BP declined to comment, while Mr Laidlaw could not be reached for comment.

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Hundreds of jobs at risk as River Island takes axe to store base

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Hundreds of jobs at risk as River Island takes axe to store base

Hundreds more high street jobs are being put at risk as part of a sweeping overhaul of the family-owned fashion retailer River Island.

Sky News has learnt that the clothing chain, which trades from about 230 stores, is proposing to close 33 shops in a restructuring plan which will be put to creditors in August.

The fate of a further 70 stores is dependent upon agreements being reached with landlords to slash rent payments.

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Confirmation of the plans comes less than a month after Sky News revealed that the company, which was founded in 1948 by Bernard Lewis, was working with PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) on a restructuring plan.

In a statement issued on Friday, Ben Lewis, River Island’s chief executive, said: “River Island is a much-loved retailer, with a decades-long history on the British high street.

“However, the well-documented migration of shoppers from the high street to online has left the business with a large portfolio of stores that is no longer aligned to our customers’ needs.

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“The sharp rise in the cost of doing business over the last few years has only added to the financial burden.

“We have a clear strategy to transform the business to ensure its long-term viability.

“Recent improvements in our fashion offer and in-store shopping experience are already showing very positive results, but it is only with a restructuring plan that we will be able to see this strategy through and secure River Island’s future as a profitable retail business.

“We regret any job losses as a result of store closures, and we will try to keep these to a minimum.”

The company declined to comment on how many jobs would be put at risk by the initial 33 shop closures, or on the scale of the rent cuts being sought during talks with landlords.

In total, it is understood to employ about 5,500 people.

Sources said that new funding will be injected into River Island if the restructuring plan is approved in August.

Previously named Lewis and Chelsea Girl, the business, it adopting its current brand during the 1980s.

Accounts for River Island Clothing Co for the 52 weeks ended 30 December 2023 show the company made a £33.2m pre-tax loss.

Turnover during the year fell by more than 19% to £578.1m.

A restructuring plan is a court-supervised process which enables companies facing financial difficulties to compromise creditors such as landlords in order to avoid insolvency proceedings.

An identical process is being used to close scores of Poundland shops and slash rents at hundreds more.

In its latest accounts at Companies House, River Island Holdings Limited warned of a multitude of financial and operational risks to its business.

“The market for retailing of fashion clothing is fast changing with customer preferences for more diverse, convenient and speedier shopping journeys and with increasing competition especially in the digital space,” it said.

Read more from Sky News:
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‘Inflation and customer cutbacks’ blamed for dive in retail sales
Govt considers industrial energy cost aid

“The key business risks for the group are the pressures of a highly competitive and changing retail environment combined with increased economic uncertainty.

“A number of geopolitical events have resulted in continuing supply chain disruption as well as energy, labour and food price increases, driving inflation and interest rates higher and resulting in weaker disposable income and lower consumer confidence.”

Retailers have complained bitterly about the impact of tax changes announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, in last autumn’s Budget.

Since then, a cluster of well-known chains, including Lakeland and The Original Factory Shop, have been forced to seek new owners.

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Post Office Capture scandal: Sir Alan Bates calls for those responsible for wrongful convictions to be ‘brought to account’

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Post Office Capture scandal: Sir Alan Bates calls for those responsible for wrongful convictions to be 'brought to account'

Sir Alan Bates has called for those responsible for the wrongful convictions of sub postmasters in the Capture IT scandal to be “brought to account”.

It comes after Sky News unearthed a report showing Post Office lawyers knew of faults in the software nearly three decades ago.

The documents, found in a garage by a retired computer expert, describe the Capture system as “an accident waiting to happen”.

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Post Office: The lost ‘Capture’ files

Sir Alan said the Sky News investigation showed “yet another failure of government oversight; another failure of the Post Office board to ensure [the] Post Office recruited senior people competent of bringing in IT systems” and management that was “out of touch with what was going on within its organisation”.

The unearthed Capture report was commissioned by the defence team for sub postmistress Patricia Owen and served on the Post Office in 1998 at her trial.

It described the software as “quite capable of producing absurd gibberish” and concluded “reasonable doubt” existed as to “whether any criminal offence” had taken place.

Ms Owen was found guilty of stealing from her branch and given a suspended prison sentence.

She died in 2003 and her family had always believed the computer expert, who was due to give evidence on the report, “never turned up”.

Pat Owen and husband David
Screengrabs from Adele Robinson i/vs with case study. Family of Pat Owen from Kent who was convicted of 1998 from stealing from her post office branch. Now the Capture IT system is suspected of adding errors to the accounts. 
Source P 175500FR POST OFFICE CAPTURE CASES ROBINSON 0600 VT V2 JJ1
Image:
Patricia Owen (right) was convicted in 1998 of stealing from her post office branch. She died in 2003


Adrian Montagu reached out after seeing a Sky News report earlier this year and said he was actually stood down by the defending barrister with “no reason given”.

The barrister said he had no recollection of the case.

Victims and their lawyers hope the newly found “damning” expert report, which may never have been seen by a jury, could help overturn Capture convictions.

Read more: Post Office scandal redress must not only be fair – it must be fast

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What is the Capture scandal?

‘These people have to be brought to account’

Sir Alan, the leading campaigner for victims of the Horizon Post Office scandal, said while “no programme is bug free, why [was the] Post Office allowed to transfer the financial risk from these bugs on to a third party ie the sub postmaster, and why did its lawyers continue with prosecutions seemingly knowing of these system bugs?”

He continued: “Whether it was incompetence or corporate malice, these people have to be brought to account for their actions, be it for Capture or Horizon.”

More than 100 victims have come forward

More than 100 victims, including those who were not convicted but who were affected by the faulty software, have so far come forward.

Capture was used in 2,500 branches between 1992 and 1999, just before Horizon was introduced – which saw hundreds wrongfully convicted.

The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), the body responsible for investigating potential miscarriages of justice, is currently looking at a number of Capture convictions.

A CCRC spokesperson told Sky News: “We have received applications regarding 29 convictions which pre-date Horizon.
25 of these applications are being actively investigated by case review managers, and two more recent applications are in the preparatory stage and will be assigned to case review managers before the end of June.

“We have issued notices under s.17 of the Criminal Appeal Act 1995 to Post Office Ltd requiring them to produce all material relating to the applications received.

“To date, POL have provided some material in relation to 17 of the cases and confirmed that they hold no material in relation to another 5. The CCRC is awaiting a response from POL in relation to 6 cases.”

A spokesperson for the Department for Business and Trade said: “Postmasters negatively affected by Capture endured immeasurable suffering. We continue to listen to those who have been sharing their stories on the Capture system, and have taken their thoughts on board when designing the Capture Redress Scheme.”

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