Rishi Sunak has suffered a number of sizeable defeats in the House of Lords over his controversial bill to rescue the stalled Rwanda plan.
Peers have voted through five amendments which, if enacted in law, would make it harder for parliament to declare the African nation ‘safe’ and would require the government to comply with domestic and international law.
This would effectively kill the central purpose of the legislation – which aims to prevent further legal challenges against the policy after it was ruled unlawful by the UK’s Supreme Court.
The votes don’t scupper the bill entirely, but set into motion the process of parliamentary “ping pong” between the Lords and the Commons until an agreement is reached.
As well as compelling judges to regard Rwanda as safe, Mr Sunak’s Safety of Rwanda Bill is designed to give ministers the power to disregard key sections of the UK’s Human Rights Act and other international rules that stand in the way of deportations.
Peers from across the political divide have criticised it because they believe it breaks international law.
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On Monday, the upper chamber backed a move to ensure the legislation is fully compliant with the law by 274 votes to 172, a majority of 102.
The Lords also backed by 282 to 180, another majority of 102, a demand that parliament cannot declare Rwanda ‘safe’ until the treaty it signed with the country in Decemberis fully implemented.
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The treaty aims to address the issues raised by the Supreme Court in November and includes provisions to stop asylum seekers who end up in Rwanda being sent back to their country of origin.
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Government suffers ‘thumping defeat’ on Rwanda
In a third defeat for the government, peers voted by 277 votes to 167, a majority 110, in favour of establishing a monitoring mechanism able to check whether Rwanda is safe.
Two other amendments were passed which called for the presumption that Rwanda is safe to be open to challenge in the courts if “credible evidence” emerges.
Lord Anderson of Ipswich, an independent crossbencher and lawyer, said: “If Rwanda is safe, as the government would have us declare, it has nothing to fear from such scrutiny.”
Several Conservative peers also voted against the government’s position, including former Tory chancellor Ken Clarke.
He warned that if the bill is ultimately passed by parliament, it will likely face another challenge in the Supreme Court.
Tory peer Lord Tugendhat, whose nephew is security minister Tom Tugendhat, accused the government of behaving like the ruling party in George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984.
The sizes of the defeats, with margins of over 100 votes, are the biggest suffered by Mr Sunak as prime minister.
He could face further trouble on Wednesday when more Lords amendments are voted on.
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Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.
Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.
Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.
Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.
“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”
Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.
“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”
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Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”
He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.
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Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France
Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.
Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.
Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.
With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.
The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.