Why is Jeremy Hunt preparing to cut taxes and rein in public spending growth when polls suggest the public – by a clear margin – think this is the wrong way round?
Sky News’ Voters Panel, an online community of 2019 Conservative voters, holds the answer.
For two weeks, Sky News has convened dozens of voters who supported Boris Johnson in 2019 to probe more deeply than possible with an opinion poll into what motivates their views on politics in this election year.
This is seen by Conservatives and Labour as a key electoral battleground. These people matter.
So while it is true the overall British population swings one way – national YouGov polling finds 55% of voters overall say spare cash should go to public services against only 30% wanting tax cuts – our group, our key electoral demographic, sees things differently.
Of these voters, 23 people expressed a clear view that they did want tax cuts. Meanwhile, 15 said that they did not want tax cuts, mostly because of a desire to put more into public services.
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When our Voters Panel was forced to choose one or other – tax cuts or more money into public spending – they picked tax cuts by the ratio of three to two – nine wanted to put more money into public spending, while 17 wanted tax cuts.
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When asked to justify why they picked one over the other, the panel was clear.
Holly said: “I think cuts to personal income tax would be the most needed and most beneficial for people.
“The cost of living crisis and rising inflation has squeezed everyone, this would be a good way to bring balance back.”
Mark said: “I feel taxes are high enough. Cut taxes and give people, especially the most vulnerable, a chance to have extra money in their pockets.”
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Some, like Rob, thought higher public spending was an actively bad idea.
“More public spending doesn’t deliver better services. It just creates more waste and more middle and upper managers,” he said.
Others adopted the language of the right of the Tory party, with Terry wanting less spent on public services, because it [the party] needs to be more realistic and end spending on “woke management posts or inflated management teams”.
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4:20
20% of Tories would vote Reform
While a clutch rejected more public spending, mostly for the NHS, some thought more money needed to go into police.
However, even among those who want higher spending, there is a fear it might be wasted.
Kelly, who backs budget increases, said: “I fear that we will only benefit from it if they are spending it correctly. Which I don’t think they are.”
This is not the only reason Tory strategists will plump for tax cuts over spending rises.
Any announcement by the chancellor of a personal taxation cut will be instantly noticed by millions of people for whom it will take effect before long.
Meanwhile should Mr Hunt decide to announce future public spending rises of even two percentage points, few would understand what that means in practice and there is next to no chance anyone would feel the difference by the time election day arrives.
This choice, it seems, is more simple than it might look.
Sir Keir Starmer has insisted the “vast majority of farmers” will not be affected by changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) ahead of a protest outside parliament on Tuesday.
It follows Chancellor Rachel Reeves announcing a 20% inheritance tax that will apply to farms worth more than £1m from April 2026, where they were previously exempt.
But the prime minister looked to quell fears as he resisted calls to change course.
Speaking from the G20 summit in Brazil, he said: “If you take a typical case of a couple wanting to pass a family farm down to one of their children, which would be a very typical example, with all of the thresholds in place, that’s £3m before any inheritance tax is paid.”
The comments come as thousands of farmers, including celebrity farmer Jeremy Clarkson, are due to descend on Whitehall on Tuesday to protest the change.
And 1,800 more will take part in a “mass lobby” where members of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) will meet their MPs in parliament to urge them to ask Ms Reeves to reconsider the policy.
Speaking to broadcasters, Sir Keir insisted the government is supportive of farmers, pointing to a £5bn investment announced for them in the budget.
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He said: “I’m confident that the vast majority of farms and farmers will not be affected at all by that aspect of the budget.
“They will be affected by the £5bn that we’re putting into farming. And I’m very happy to work with farmers on that.”
Sir Keir’s spokesman made a similar argument earlier on Monday, saying the government expects 73% of farms to not be affected by the change.
Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs Secretary Steve Reed said only about 500 out of the UK’s 209,000 farms would be affected, according to Treasury calculations.
However, that number has been questioned by several farming groups and the Conservatives.
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2:28
Farming industry is feeling ‘betrayed’ – NFU boss
Government figures ‘misleading’
The NFU said the real number is about two-thirds, with its president Tom Bradshaw calling the government’s figures “misleading” and accusing it of not understanding the sector.
The Country Land and Business Association (CLA) said the policy could affect 70,000 farms.
Conservative shadow farming minister Robbie Moore accused the government last week of “regurgitating” figures that represent “past claimants of agricultural property relief, not combined with business property relief” because he said the Treasury does not have that data.
Agricultural property relief (APR) currently provides farmers 100% relief from paying inheritance tax on agricultural land or pasture used for rearing livestock or fish, and can include woodland and buildings, such as farmhouses, if they are necessary for that land to function.
Farmers can also claim business property relief (BPR), providing 50% or 100% relief on assets used by a trading business, which for farmers could include land, buildings, plant or machinery used by the business, farm shops and holiday cottages.
APR and BPR can often apply to the same asset, especially farmed land, but APR should be the priority, however BPR can be claimed in addition if APR does not cover the full value (e.g. if the land has development value above its agricultural value).
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Mr Moore said the Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Treasury have disagreed on how many farms will be impacted “by as much as 40%” due to the lack of data on farmers using BPR.
Lib Dem MP Tim Farron said last week1,400 farmers in Cumbria, where he is an MP, will be affected and will not be able to afford to pay the tax as many are on less than the minimum wage despite being asset rich.
A split is emerging in the cabinet, with Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson revealing she will join several of her colleagues and vote against the bill to legalise assisted dying.
Ms Phillipson told Sky News she will vote against the proposed legislation at the end of this month, which would give terminally ill people with six months to live the option to end their lives.
She voted against assisted dying in 2015 and said: “I haven’t changed my mind.
“I continue to think about this deeply. But my position hasn’t changed since 2015.”
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2:41
Details of end of life bill released
MPs will be given a free vote on the bill, so they will not be told how to vote by their party.
The topic has seen a split in the cabinet – however, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has yet to reveal how he will vote on 29 November.
Ms Phillipson joins some other big names who have publicly said they are voting against the bill
These include Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds.
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Border security minister Angela Eagle is also voting against the bill.
Senior cabinet members voting in favour of assisted dying include Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Science Secretary Peter Kyle, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn, Transport Secretary Louise Haigh and Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens.
The split over the issue is said to be causing friction within government, with Sir Keir rebuking the health secretary for repeatedly saying he is against the bill and for ordering officials to review the costs of implementing any changes in the law.
Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates has been told Morgan McSweeney, the PM’s chief of staff, is concerned about the politics of the bill passing.
He is understood to be worried the issue will dominate the agenda next year and, while he is not taking a view on the bill, he can see it taking over the national conversation and distracting from core government priorities like the economy and borders.
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Details of the bill were published last week and include people wanting to end their life having to self-administer the medicine.
It would only be allowed for terminally ill people who have been given six months to live.
Two independent doctors would have to confirm a patient is eligible for assisted dying and a High Court judge would have to give their approval before it could go ahead.
Lord Patten, the last governor of Hong Kong, has called on the British government to condemn the “sham” sentencing of 45 Hong Kong politicians and activists as Sir Keir Starmer holds talks with the Chinese president.
The former opposition pro-democracy politicians, social workers, activists and academics are due to be sentenced on Tuesday for conspiring to subvert power through an unofficial “primary” election four years ago.
Members of the public have been queuing to attend their sentencing, which will see them facing up to life in jail.
It is Hong Kong’s largest and longest-running prosecution under the national security law, which was enforced by Beijing and saw months of mass protests, police violence and arrests in 2020 and 2021.
Called the “Hong Kong 47” after 47 were charged in January 2021 with conspiracy to commit subversion, 45 of them are set to be sentenced this week after two were acquitted in May this year.
Lord Patten, a patron of British NGO Hong Kong Watch, said the sentences tomorrow will be a “sham” and he called on the prime minister to speak out against them.
Sir Keir met Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Rio on Monday where he told him a “strong UK-China relationship is important for both of our countries”.
The UK PM told reporters on Sunday he intended to pursue a “serious, pragmatic” relationship with Beijing.
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Lord Patten said: “The sentencing of 45 of the 47 Hong Kong democrats is not only an affront to the people of Hong Kong, but those who value rights and freedoms around the world.
“These brave individuals were an integral part of defining the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, and were peacefully supported by thousands through votes.
“I absolutely condemn these sham sentences, which resulted from a non-jury trial and point to the destruction of freedoms of assembly, expression, and the press in Hong Kong.
“The UK government must not allow the results of this case to go unnoticed or uncondemned.”
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0:29
2020 Hong Kong protests: ‘We will never surrender’
Historic meeting between Starmer and Xi
Sir Keir’s meeting with President Xi in Rio is the first of any prime minister in more than six years.
The PM and his foreign secretary, David Lammy, have been critical of China in the past, particularly regarding allegations of human rights abuses against Uyghurs in Xinjiang.
Relations between the UK and China have become frosty over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks from Chinese investment.
Sir Keir appears to be prioritising trade, with China being Britain’s sixth largest trading partner, accounting for 5% of goods and services trade worth £86.5bn.
The PM’s spokesman said Sir Keir told Mr Xi he wants to “engage honestly and frankly on those areas where we have different perspectives, including on Hong Kong, human rights and Russia’s war in Ukraine”.
Hong Kong 47 in jail for nearly four years
Most of the Hong Kong 47 have been in custody since they were arrested in early 2021.
One of the most famous members of the group is Nobel Peace Prize nominee Joshua Wong, a student protest leader who became leader of the now-disbanded political group Demosisto.
Sixteen of the group pleaded not guilty, with 14 of them convicted after a 118-day trial without a jury. Those found guilty will be sentenced along with 31 who pleaded guilty.
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They were arrested after organising a primary election in July 2020 aiming to help pro-democracy politicians seize a majority in the 2021 Legislative Council elections.
Prosecutors said had they won a majority in the chamber, the democrats were planning to “indiscriminately” veto bills, including the annual budget, which would force the chief executive’s resignation and a government shutdown.
National security judges ruled the move would have plunged Hong Kong into a “constitutional crisis”.