Goldman says the bear market for battery metal prices is far from over
The Albermarle Corp. lithium processing facility in Antofagasta, Chile, on Saturday, March 2, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Goldman Sachs finds it is too early to call an end to a battery raw materials price plunge, warning that significant supply pipelines and Western electric vehicle headwinds could keep prices lower for longer.
The forecast, which is part of a research note published on Tuesday, follows a sharp downturn in the price for some of the most sought-after energy transition metals. The end-use of materials such as nickel, copper, lithium and cobalt are wide-ranging and include electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels.
Goldman Sachs said the outlook appeared bearish for nickel, lithium and cobalt.
“Despite the significant downside in battery metals prices, with nickel, lithium and cobalt prices down 60%, 80% and 65% from cycle peak, respectively, we believe it is too early to call a decisive end to these respective bear markets,” analysts led by Nicholas Snowdon wrote in a note to clients.
“Margin pressures have generated a meaningful degree of supply rationing effects over the past quarter,” the U.S. investment bank said, citing incremental supply cuts in lithium and nickel.
Together with Western EV-related demand downgrades, the bank said that “significant” supply pipelines mean that the projected 2024 surpluses for lithium and nickel “remain sizeable.”
On a 12-month basis, analysts at Goldman said the Wall Street bank is targeting a 12%, 15% and 25% downside in cobalt, nickel and lithium carbonate, respectively.
It means that Goldman expects cobalt prices to trade at $26,000 per metric ton (down from a previous forecast of $28,000) over 12 months, nickel to fall to $15,000 per metric ton and lithium carbonate to slip to $10,000 per metric ton (down from a previous forecast of $11,000).
Prices of lithium carbonate in China on Tuesday traded at roughly 108,500 yuan ($15,071). Lithium prices are down nearly 70%, compared to the same period last year.
Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were last trading at $17,945 per metric ton on Tuesday, while cobalt prices on the LME stood at $28,550 per metric ton.
Analysts have previously warned that the outlook for EV battery metals remains relatively subdued, with lithium, cobalt and nickel markets generally oversupplied.
“I would say the outlook remains fairly depressed, I think particularly for lithium and nickel, [which have] lengthening supply balances,” Tim Bush, electric vehicle battery research analyst at UBS, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Jan. 9.
“Now, that’s not necessarily a bad thing because it means that batteries will be less expensive for automakers so it helps alleviate some of the pain that some of the U.S. and European automakers have been experiencing,” Bush said at the time.
First Solar just cut the ribbon on a huge new factory in Iberia Parish, Louisiana, and it dwarfs the New Orleans Superdome. The company’s $1.1 billion, fully vertically integrated facility spans 2.4 million square feet, or about 11 times the size of the stadium’s main arena.
The factory began production quietly in July, a few months ahead of schedule, and employs more than 700 people. First Solar expects that number to hit 826 by the end of the year. Once it’s fully online, the site will add 3.5 GW of annual manufacturing capacity. That brings the company’s total US footprint to 14 GW in 2026 and 17.7 GW in 2027, when its newly announced South Carolina plant is anticipated to come online.
The Louisiana plant produces First Solar’s Series 7 modules using US-made materials — glass from Illinois and Ohio, and steel from Mississippi, which is fabricated into backrails in Louisiana.
The new factory leans heavily on AI, from computer vision that spots defects on the line to deep learning tools that help technicians make real‑time adjustments.
Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry says the investment is already a win for the region, bringing in “hundreds of good-paying jobs and new opportunities for Louisiana workers and businesses.” A new economic impact analysis from the University of Louisiana at Lafayette projects that the factory will boost Iberia Parish’s GDP by 4.4% in its first full year at capacity. The average manufacturing compensation package comes in at around $90,000, more than triple the parish’s per capita income.
First Solar CEO Mark Widmar framed the new facility as a major step for US clean energy manufacturing: “By competitively producing energy technology in America with American materials, while creating American jobs, we’re demonstrating that US reindustrialization isn’t just a thesis, it’s an operating reality.”
This site joins what’s already the largest solar manufacturing and R&D footprint in the Western Hemisphere: three factories in Ohio, one in Alabama, and R&D centers in Ohio and California. Just last week, First Solar announced a new production line in Gaffney, South Carolina, to onshore more Series 6 module work. By the end of 2026, the company expects to directly employ more than 5,500 people across the US.
Read more: First Solar pours $330M into a new South Carolina solar factory
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No, it’s not the new Bolt. GM’s design team previewed a new high-riding “sporty Chevrolet EV” that should be brought to life.
Is Chevy launching a new sporty EV?
This is the all-electric vehicle Chevy should sell in the US. General Motors’ design team released a series of sketches previewing a sporty new Chevy EV.
Although it kinda looks like the new 2027 Chevy Bolt EV as a higher-sitting compact crossover SUV, the design offers a fresh take on what it should have looked like.
The new Bolt is essentially a modernized version of the outgoing EUV model with a similar compact crossover silhouette. Nissan adopted a similar style with the new 2026 LEAF as buyers continue shifting from smaller sedans and hatchbacks to crossovers and SUVs.
Will we see the sporty Chevy EV in real life? It’s not likely. For one, the “exploration sketch” is by GM China Advanced designer Charles Huang.
GM Design posted the sketches on its global social media page, but the caption read “Sporty Chevrolet EV for the China Market.”
It’s too bad. The Bolt could use a sporty sibling like an SS variant. Chevy introduced the Blazer EV SS (check out our review) for the 2026 model year, its fastest “SS” model yet. Packing up to 615 horsepower and 650 lb-ft of torque, the Chevy Blazer SS can race from 0 to 60 mph in 3.4 seconds when using Wide Open Watts (WOW) mode.
Will the Bolt be next? I wouldn’t get my hopes up. And if GM does bring the sporty Chevy EV to life, it will likely only be sold in China. Like all the fun cars these days.
What do you think of the design? Would you buy one of these in the US? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
While deliveries of the 2027 Bolt are set to begin in early 2026, Chevy is offering some sweet deals on its current EV lineup, including up to $4,000 off in Customer Cash and 0% APR financing for 60 months.
Ready to test drive one? You can use our links below to find Chevy Equinox, Blazer, and Silverado EVs at a dealership near you.
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Podcast: Electricity is the base currency, Tesla Robotaxi crashes, new Porsche Cayenne EV, and more
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss electricity becoming the base currency, Tesla Robotaxi crashes, the new Porsche Cayenne EV, and more.
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