Here, there are a number of traditional Labour strongholds, where voters are more likely to be white, working class and to have voted leave in the referendum.
Grimsby is one such example.
Image: The entrance to Grimsby Docks. Pic: PA
It turned Conservative for the first time since the end of the Second World War in 2019, with many people at the time feeling a cultural rift with the Labour Party.
This constituency has now been combined with Cleethorpes, where the Tories have been in power since 2010.
Since its formation in 1997, it’s been a bellwether seat, backing the largest party in Westminster.
It contains a rural conservative base as well as urban voters who in more recent years backed the promises of levelling up and Brexit offered by the Tories.
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The complex composition of this new constituency means it’s shaping up to be an interesting battleground.
Image: Cleethorpes is a seaside town that neighbours Grimsby. Pic: PA
Boris Johnson’s personal appeal, his party’s promise to “Get Brexit Done” and a promise to level up poorer parts of the country was a winning ticket for the Tories here.
Fast forward five years and disillusionment with the Conservatives is rife.
A cost of living crisis has eroded living standards and the promise of “levelling up” appears to have been forgotten.
Net migration to the UK is at a record high and the tax burden at a post-war high.
Tory party infighting, repeated leadership contests and a chaotic premiership under Liz Truss have eroded the public’s trust.
Support for the Conservatives may be fading but that won’t necessarily translate into strong support for Labour.
The Reform party is gaining ground in pro-leave constituencies, picking up their 2019 Tory voters.
The rebranded Brexit Party, led by Richard Tice and co-founded by Nigel Farage, has described itself as “the party of the working class”.
The party is polling at about 10%.
While this may not be enough to deliver Reform a single seat in parliament it could damage the Tories by splitting the vote and helping to deliver a Labour majority.
We saw this play out at the by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood.
What is Target Town?
Sky News’ Target Town series aims to tell the story of the upcoming election from the perspective of voters in the new constituency of Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes.
We’ll hear from locals all the way through to election night to understand the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead, and to discuss how the future could look depending on which political party is elected into power.
The constituency is high on Conservative and Labour target lists, lying right at the heart of the ‘Red Wall’ that the Tories smashed to take the election in 2019.
Once again they promise to be pivotal to both leaders’ ambitions.
However, Reform doesn’t have candidates everywhere yet, including in Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes. Instead, voter disillusionment and low turnout could be a bigger problem for the Tories than outright conversion to Labour.
Labour needs an 11.7 point swing to win in this new constituency and it has reason to be quietly confident.
The party has achieved larger swings at recent by-elections.
However, winning in places like Grimsby and Cleethorpes will be important if it is to secure the 12.7 point swing needed across the country to win a majority in parliament.
Labour lost people in Grimsby to Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019.
Back then voters questioned the culture of the Labour party, whether it really stood for people like them, the working classes.
Labour will need to win them back but, in both Grimsby and Cleethorpes, it’s also contending with disillusionment with both main parties.
Sky News’ Target Town series aims to follow the build-up to the general election from a key constituency prized by both Conservatives and Labour – Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes.
In common with many parents across the country, here’s a conversation that I have with my young daughter on a semi-regular basis (bear with me, this will take on some political relevance eventually).
Me: “So it’s 15 minutes until your bedtime, you can either have a little bit of TV or do a jigsaw, not both.”
Daughter: “Ummmm, I want to watch TV.”
Me: “That’s fine, but it’s bed after that, you can’t do a jigsaw as well.”
Fast-forward 15 minutes.
Me: “Right, TV off now please, bedtime.”
(Pause)
Daughter: “I want to do a jigsaw.”
Now replace me with the government, the TV and jigsaw options with axing welfare cuts and scrapping the two-child cap, and my daughter with rebellious backbenchers.
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6:36
Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma
That is the tension currently present between Downing Street and Labour MPs. And my initial ultimatum is the messaging being pumped out from the government this weekend.
In essence: you’ve had your welfare U-turn, so there’s no money left for the two-child cap to go as well.
As an aside – and before my inbox fills with angry emails lambasting me for using such a crude metaphor for policies that fundamentally alter the lives of some of the most vulnerable in society – yes, I hear you, and that’s part of my point.
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9:11
Welfare U-turn ‘has come at cost’
For many in Labour, this approach feels like the lives of their constituents are being used in a childish game of horse-trading.
So what can be done?
Well, the government could change the rules.
Altering the fiscal rules is – and will likely remain – an extremely unlikely solution. But as it happens, one of Labour’s proverbial grandparents has just popped round with a different suggestion.
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5:31
Welfare: ‘Didn’t get process right’ – PM
A wealth tax, Lord Neil Kinnock says, is the necessary outcome of the economic restrictions the party has placed on itself.
Ever the Labour storyteller, Lord Kinnock believes this would allow the government to craft a more compelling narrative about whose side this administration is on.
That could be valuable, given one of the big gripes from many backbench critics is that they still don’t really understand what this prime minister stands for – and by extension, what all these “difficult decisions” are in aid of.
The downside is whether it will actually raise much money.
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16:02
Is Corbyn an existential risk to Labour?
The super-rich may have lots of assets to take a slice from, but they also have expensive lawyers ready to find novel ways to keep their client’s cash away from the prying eyes of the state.
Or, of course, they could just leave – as many are doing already.
In the short term, the future is a bit easier to predict.
If Downing Street is indeed now saying there is no money to scrap the two-child cap (after heavy briefing in the opposite direction just weeks ago), an almighty tantrum from the backbenches is inevitable.
And as every parent knows, the more you give in, the harder it becomes to hold the line.
The UK has re-established diplomatic ties with Syria, David Lammy has said, as he made the first visit to the country by a British minister for 14 years.
The foreign secretary visited Damascus and met with interim president Ahmed al Sharaa, also the leader of the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and foreign minister Asaad al Shaibani.
In a statement, Mr Lammy said a “stable Syria is in the UK’s interests” and added: “I’ve seen first-hand the remarkable progress Syrians have made in rebuilding their lives and their country.
“After over a decade of conflict, there is renewed hope for the Syrian people.
“The UK is re-establishing diplomatic relations because it is in our interests to support the new government to deliver their commitment to build a stable, more secure and prosperous future for all Syrians.”
Image: Foreign Secretary David Lammy with Syria’s interim president Ahmed al Sharaa in Damascus. Pic: X / @DavidLammy
The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has also announced a £94.5m support package for urgent humanitarian aid and to support the country’s long-term recovery, after a number of British sanctions against the country were lifted in April.
While HTS is still classified as a proscribed terror group, Sir Keir Starmer said last year that it could be removed from the list.
The Syrian president’s office also said on Saturday that the president and Mr Lammy discussed co-operation, as well as the latest developments in the Middle East.
Since Assad fled Syria in December, a transitional government headed by Mr al Sharaa was announced in March and a number of western countries have restored ties.
In May, US President Donald Trump said the United States would lift long-standing sanctions on Syria and normalise relations during a speech at the US-Saudi investment conference.
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1:12
From May: Trump says US will end sanctions for Syria
He said he wanted to give the country “a chance at peace” and added: “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed.
“I say good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”
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