The Voters Panel: Rachel Reeves winning sizeable minority of former Tory backers
Rachel Reeves is winning a sizeable minority of former Conservative backers despite nagging worries about Labour overspending if they get into power, the Sky News Voters Panel has revealed.
The Voters Panel, a two-week online community of people who backed Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019, has been asked to explain their preference for either Tory Chancellor Jeremy Hunt or Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves.
The economy is set to be the biggest issue in the election, with the Tories keen to paint Labour’s economic plans as dangerous and inflationary while they are the low-tax party.
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The Voters Panel, which is run by YouGov, suggests Labour are having a degree of success with some wavering voters.
While 29 of the 2019 Tory voters in the Voters Panel went for Hunt, 20 chose Reeves as their preferred chancellor – a ratio of 3:2.
This is different compared to polls of current Conservative voters, who prefer Hunt to Reeves by 39% to 7%.
This suggests that dissatisfaction with Hunt’s approach and an enthusiasm for Reeves could be a big dividing line between those voters who stick with the Tories from last time and those who take their vote elsewhere.
Those voters who chose Reeves said she was “clearer on her views and wanted to help the country and people”, and “she appears composed and competent. I think she will do no worse than the Tories and deserves a chance to demonstrate what she can achieve”.
Nicky says he’s swaying towards backing Labour at the next election and gave his support to Reeves.
Nick from the Voters Panel
He said: “I would like to see Rachel Reeves run the economy for Labour as I believe what Jeremy Hunt has done so far does not seem to be working.”
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Some voters are aware of Reeves’ background.
Helen, from the West Midlands who told us she will not be voting Conservative at the election, said: “She is the daughter of teachers, therefore I feel like she knows what it’s really like in the real world.”
Others think she will make “difficult decisions and take bolder steps to help the economy for the long term”.
Helen from the Voters Panel
Another category of voter suggested they trust Hunt more but regard Reeves as safe. They said: “I have some regard for Rachel Reeves, and think she could be a successful chancellor, but I am not entirely convinced.”
However, Labour has not expunged fears that pressure from the left might lead to overspending. Robert, from Chipping Barnet, is likely to vote Conservative again next time.
Robert from the Voters Panel
He said: “Reeves is doing her level best to sound Blairite and hold back her shadow cabinet and her party leader, but most of them are far more socialist than they are letting on, plus their major funders, the unions, are even further to the left.
“She will face huge pressure from all fronts to tax and spend, spend, spend.”
Another said they feared a “Labour chancellor just guessing by implementing policies that would likely not be funded and make the UK economy potentially bankrupt”.
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The average two-year mortgage rate has fallen below 5% for the first time since the Liz Truss mini-budget.
The interest rate charged on a typical two-year fixed mortgage deal is now 4.99%, according to financial information company Moneyfacts.
It means there are more expensive and also cheaper two-year mortgage products on the market, but the average has fallen to a near three-year low.
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Not since September 2022 has the average been at this level, before former prime minister Liz Truss announced her so-called mini-budget.
The programme of unfunded spending and tax cuts, done without the commentary of independent watchdog the Office for Budget Responsibility, led to a steep rise in the cost of government borrowing and necessitated an intervention by monetary regulator the Bank of England to prevent a collapse of pension funds.
It was also a key reason mortgage costs rose as high as they did – up to 6% for a typical two-year deal in the weeks after the mini-budget.
Why?
The mortgage borrowing rate dropped on Wednesday as the base interest rate – set by the Bank of England – was cut last week to 4%. The reduction made borrowing less expensive, as signs of a struggling economy were evident to the rate-setting central bankers and despite inflation forecast to rise further.
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Bank of England cuts interest rate
It’s that expectation of elevated price rises that has stopped mortgage rates from falling further. The Bank had raised interest rates and has kept them comparatively high as inflation is anticipated to rise faster due to poor harvests and increased employer costs, making goods more expensive.
The group behind the figures, Moneyfacts, said “While the cost of borrowing is still well above the rock-bottom rates of the years immediately preceding that fiscal event, this milestone shows lenders are competing more aggressively for business.”
In turn, mortgage providers are reluctant to offer cheaper products.
A further cut to the base interest rate is expected before the end of 2025, according to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data. Traders currently bet the rate will be brought to 3.75% in December.
This expectation can influence what rates lenders offer.
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