Budget 2024: Real pay for young graduates down by over £1,000 in three years
Graduates in their 20s are earning less in real terms than they were before the 2008 financial crash, and are £1,200 worse off than they were at the start of the pandemic on average, despite recent cuts to national insurance.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has teased further national insurance cuts in his upcoming budget, following on from the recent decrease announced in his autumn statement.
It could be welcome news to some who have seen their pay packets squeezed over recent years as a result of the cost of living crisis, though economists have warned tax cuts would be unaffordable and would need to be reversed after an election.
People aged between 22 and 29 are earning less in real terms now than they were in 2002.
This is when factoring in inflation, including rising housing and food costs, over the period.
In 2023 prices, the median salary for a graduate in their 20s is £23,990 after paying taxes and student loan – compared with £25,200 in 2020.
Helen Miller, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), said: “This comes in the context of an ongoing, multi-year freeze to personal tax thresholds.
“By 2027 (the last year of the planned freezes), an employee earning £35,000 will be paying about £440 a year more in direct tax overall as a result of all the changes to income tax and NICs since 2021.
“The government has announced significant tax rises. Regardless of what the chancellor announces in the budget, it is highly likely that this will be the largest tax-raising parliament on record.”
Changes to student loan plans
Student loan repayments are set at 9% of income above the salary threshold, which has been frozen at £27,295 since 2021/22.
Still, a recent graduate on an average income is currently paying around £13 a month towards their student loan, so is it really a big deal?
A big factor in the impact of student debt is not just how much people pay back per month, but how much they pay back over their working lives, and when they started university.
Those who went to university on ‘Plan 2’ higher university fees (£9,000 and above from 2012/13) will pay back almost £20,000 more than the previous ‘Plan 1’ cohort in their lifetime, according to estimates by the IFS.
Those who started in the 2023 academic year or later will be eligible for ‘Plan 5’ student loans, which have different repayment terms.
The threshold will increase in line with the Retail Prices Index (a measure of inflation) instead – meaning it will likely increase more slowly than under the previous policy and more graduates will start paying back their debt sooner.
Under the new system, student debt will only be written off after 40 years rather than 30, meaning many will make repayments for longer, potentially into their 60s.
This particularly affects low to middle earners, who are less likely to have paid off their debt after 30 years.
However, under this new system, no borrower will repay more than they borrowed (in real RPI terms) – so the highest earners can expect to repay significantly less than if they had started university in 2022 due to the lower interest rate.
On the other hand, people on lower incomes will end up paying back more.
‘A thundercloud waiting to burst’
Dr Farhana Ghaffar, researcher at the University of East Anglia, has been looking at the impact of the post-2012 loan system on students and young people and interviewed graduates who had been through this system to see how it had affected them.
“The idea was generally that a university degree would set you up for life, so it would set you up for a particular kind of life where you’d be able to have a home, start a family,” she said.
But in exchange for this, students are taking on “enormous” amounts of debt, which can have an emotional impact.
“I think sort of five or six years on, they were constantly worried about the debt that was getting bigger and bigger. And obviously they couldn’t do anything about it.
“They’re not at a stage yet where I think we can kind of talk too much about the long-term impacts. But something that was really striking is it was a future worry.
“You know, ‘when I get a mortgage’ or ‘when I start a family’. Someone described it almost as being like a thundercloud, waiting to burst and they just didn’t know when it would happen.”
Anastasia is a Romanian student at the University of Dundee. Her tuition fees are free because she started studying in Scotland while the UK was part of the EU.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Sky News spoke to young people who say their future after university is looking ‘bleak’.
Watch Sky News’s coverage of the Budget live from 11am.
English students still have to pay to study in Scotland but students from other EU countries could study for free, as Scottish students do.
Anastasia isn’t sure if she would have gone to university at all if she had to pay fees.
She said: “I’d have to take a few months to think about it. And really, really think about it. I don’t think it’s a decision I could make just like that.
“If there was a way of knowing the payments would be acceptable and manageable – even though I probably won’t have a good job right after I graduate – maybe I would do that but very low chances.
But Anastasia knows that decision too could affect her future prospects, saying “[we are] in a world where everybody expects you to have a diploma for anything”.
“There are so many companies out there that will not give you the job even though you’re fully able to give them a wonderful performance, if you don’t have a diploma.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Business
Vivergo: How US-UK trade deal could bring about collapse of huge renewable energy plant in Hull
The smell of yeast still hangs in the air at the Vivergo plant in Hull but the machines have fallen quiet.
More than 100 lorries usually pass through here each day, carrying 3,000 tonnes of wheat. It is milled, fermented and distilled. The final product is bioethanol, a renewable fuel that is then blended into E10 petrol.
This is a vast operation. It took several years to build, with considerable investment, but it is on the verge of closing down. Management and staff are holding out for a last-minute reprieve from the government but time is running out.
It’s been a turbulent journey. The plant was already being annihilated by US rivals, losing about £3m a month. Vivergo and Ensus, based in Teesside, blamed regulations that enable US companies to earn double subsidies.
They were pushing for regulatory change but then a killer blow: The US-UK trade deal, which allows 1.4 billion litres of American ethanol into the UK tariff-free (down from 19%).
“We’ve effectively given the whole of the UK market to the US producers,” said Ben Hackett, managing director at Vivergo.
“If we were to have the same support that the US industry has, if we could use genetically modified crops, we wouldn’t need that tariff. We would be able to compete. If we had the same energy costs. We wouldn’t need those tariffs.”
The government has the weekend to come up with a plan that could keep the business running. If it fails, Vivergo will begin issuing redundancy notices to its 160 staff.
Ben Hackett
It’s a devastating prospect for workers, many of them live in Hull and are nervous about alternative opportunities in the area.
Mike Walsh, a logistics manager who has been working at the plant for 14 years, said: “It’s not a great place to be at the moment. It’s a very well paid, very high-skilled role and they’ve (Vivergo) given everybody an opportunity in an area that doesn’t pay that well…. The jobs market isn’t as good as what people would like. So it does impact the local economy.”
He called on the government to “help us, save us, give this industry a future”.
His colleague Claire Wood, lead productions engineer, said: “I moved here after a career in oil and gas for 10 years, partly because I want to be part of the transition to renewable fuels. I can see so much potential here and it’s absolutely devastating to know that this place might be closed very, very shortly and that all that potential just goes away.”
Thousands more could be affected. Haulage companies may have to lay off truck drivers and farmers could also suffer a blow.
Vivergo makes bioethanol using wheat. That wheat is bought from farms from Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.
Claire Wood
The National Farmers Union has sounded the alarm, saying: “Biofuels are extremely important for the crops sector, and their domestic demand of up to two million tonnes can be very important to balance supply and demand and to produce up to one million tonnes of animal feed as a by-product.”
Another bioproduct is carbon dioxide. The gas can be captured and used to put the fizz in drinks or injected into packaging to preserve food.
If Vivergo and Ensus were to go, Britain would lose as much as 80% of its output of carbon dioxide. Supplies are already tight across Europe, meaning this decision could compound shortages across a range of sectors, from meat-packing to healthcare.
The industry is calling on the government to help. Vivergo says it needs temporary financial support but that the government must create a regulatory and commercial environment in which it can thrive.
It says rules that award double subsidies to companies that use waste product in their bioethanol must be changed. At present, these rules are being used by US companies that make ethanol from Uldr – a by-product of processing corn. They argue this is not a genuine waste product.
Read more money news:
Something for everyone in latest economic data
Claire’s falls into administration
Lola’s Cupcakes bakes £30m takeover by Finsbury Food
Another option is to grow the market. Industry leaders are calling on ministers to increase the mandated renewable fuel content in petrol from 10% to 15% and for an expansion into aviation fuels. That would allow British companies to carve out a space.
The government has been locked in talks with the company since June.
It said: “We will continue to take proactive steps to address the long-standing challenges it faces and remain committed to a way forward that protects supply chains, jobs and livelihoods.”
However, the time for talking is almost over.
Mr Hackett said he had no idea how the government would respond but he was firm with his stance, saying: “In times of global uncertainty, losing that energy certainty and supply from the UK is a problem.
“I think what they’re missing out on is the future growth agenda. We’re the foundation on which the green industrial strategy can be built. We make bioethanol that today decarbonises transport. Tomorrow it will decarbonise marine. It will decarbonise aviation.”
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike