Inside Nick Saban’s decision to retire, Alabama’s pursuit of Kalen DeBoer and a week that changed college football
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — The text messages on Greg Byrne’s cellphone were pouring in, more than 1,000 and counting.
Like most around the college football world, Alabama’s athletic director was still processing what had transpired about 2½ hours earlier that afternoon.
Nick Saban had walked into the team meeting room at the Mal M. Moore Athletic Facility and told his players he was retiring. After 17 seasons, 206 wins, nine SEC championships and six national titles at Alabama, one of the greatest coaching runs in American sports history was over.
And Byrne was on the clock.
He understood the enormity of what he was tasked with, the momentous challenge of hiring the replacement for a legend.
“When you’re approaching a historic transition like that, you think about when Coach [Bear] Bryant retired, when John Wooden retired, but it’s also different now because of the transfer portal and NIL,” Byrne said. “But from an impact on a university and the sport itself, it’s as big a change as there has been in a long time.”
Saban spoke with his players for six minutes before leaving the room. Byrne then told the team he would have a new coach in place within 72 hours.
“It ended up being 49. I thought I would beat the 72-hour window but wanted to give myself some padding,” Byrne said.
Saban’s meeting with his players ended at 5:06 p.m. ET on Jan. 10. At 6:06 p.m. ET on Jan. 12, Byrne posted a photo on social media with smoke rising from a chimney — like the Vatican does when there’s a new pope, except this time it was the chimney of a Tuscaloosa barbecue joint — confirming that Washington’s Kalen DeBoer was Saban’s replacement.
Through conversations with the principals involved and other industry sources, ESPN retraced that head-spinning week, which ushered in a new era of Alabama football and, in some ways, reshaped the landscape of the entire sport.
BYRNE’S TWO-DAY WHIRLWIND was actually a year in the making. After the 2022 season, Saban informed Byrne he was nearing the end of his Hall of Fame coaching career.
“Greg, this is getting more and more difficult on me,” Saban told Byrne. “I’m not ready to do it now, but we’re going to have to start evaluating this more on a year-to-year basis.”
While hopeful Saban would keep coaching, Byrne knew deep down that the 72-year-old legend was giving him notice, so he quickly went to work. Byrne had his staff research the college head-coaching hires over the past 25 years from the winningest 25 programs during that span.
“Part of what I was trying to understand is what were the analytics, and our studies showed that 75% of the time you’re basically hiring a Group of 5 head coach, Power 5 coordinator or NFL coordinator,” Byrne said. “That’s not necessarily a negative, but when it comes to the theory that you’re going to hire just whoever you want, the percentages don’t support that.”
Then again, this was Alabama, so the Tide could set their sights higher than most any other school.
By Bama’s standards, the start of last season was a struggle, but Saban was exceedingly proud of how much the team improved. The Tide reeled off 11 straight wins, culminating with a 27-24 victory over Georgia in the SEC title game, snapping the two-time defending national champion Bulldogs’ 29-game winning streak.
“We weren’t a very good team those first few weeks of the season, but it’s a credit to those kids how far they came,” Saban said. “I’m not sure I’ve had a team that improved more over the course of the season.”
But the 27-20 overtime loss to Michigan in the CFP semifinal at the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1 was a hard one for Saban to digest. Not only was Saban upset about the way his team played, he was especially disheartened about some of the things that happened afterward — in the Rose Bowl locker room and back on campus when he met with some of the players.
“I want to be clear that wasn’t the reason, but some of those events certainly contributed,” Saban said of his decision to retire. “I was really disappointed in the way that the players acted after the game. You gotta win with class. You gotta lose with class. We had our opportunities to win the game and we didn’t do it, and then showing your ass and being frustrated and throwing helmets and doing that stuff … that’s not who we are and what we’ve promoted in our program.”
Once back in Tuscaloosa, as Saban began meeting with players, it became even more apparent to him that his message wasn’t resonating like it once did.
“I thought we could have a hell of a team next year, and then maybe 70 or 80 percent of the players you talk to, all they want to know is two things: What assurances do I have that I’m going to play because they’re thinking about transferring, and how much are you going to pay me?” Saban recounted. “Our program here was always built on how much value can we create for your future and your personal development, academic success in graduating and developing an NFL career on the field.
“So I’m saying to myself, ‘Maybe this doesn’t work anymore, that the goals and aspirations are just different and that it’s all about how much money can I make as a college player?’ I’m not saying that’s bad. I’m not saying it’s wrong, I’m just saying that’s never been what we were all about, and it’s not why we had success through the years.”
Saban had also grown weary of churning through assistant coaches every year. For example, Tommy Rees, who was hired during the 2023 offseason, was Saban’s seventh offensive coordinator in the past 11 years, and on occasion, there were nearly entire overhauls. After the 2018 season, seven assistants left for other jobs. Saban could tell that his age was becoming a factor in hiring coaches.
“People wanted assurances that I was going to be here for three or four years, and it became harder to make those assurances,” Saban said. “But the thing I loved about coaching the most was the relationships that you had with players, and those things didn’t seem to have the same meaning as they once did.”
Saban and his wife, Terry, left for their home in Jupiter Island, Florida, on Thursday, Jan. 4, two days after flying back from Los Angeles. They always get away for several days right after the season, but this trip was different.
“That’s one of the reasons we went, to discuss whether I would keep coaching,” Saban said. “But she didn’t know. I didn’t really know. It’s just not something I think about during the season, but that was the time to think about it and talk about it, for both of us.”
They returned to Tuscaloosa the next Monday night, Jan. 8. During their time in Florida, there were some deep conversations but no final decision.
“I don’t know if there’s ever a good time to do it,” Saban said. “I felt like my age was starting to impact a lot of things. The older you get, the harder it is to sustain it at the level you want to and feel like you’re doing a great job.”
While in Florida, Saban said he talked to Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells, who has a home in that area. Saban said he also talked with former Alabama coach Gene Stallings about his decision.
“Both of them said you never know quite when it’s the right time, but you kind of also know in the back of your mind when it’s the right time,” Saban said. “And that’s sort of the way I was feeling.”
Still wrestling with his decision, Saban called Byrne while he was in Florida and asked whether he would be in Tuscaloosa on Tuesday. Typically when they met, Byrne would drop by Saban’s office because Saban was always so tied up with football-related duties. But this time, Saban went to see Byrne in his office. They talked for nearly an hour.
“I wasn’t going to believe it until I heard it from him for sure, and he still didn’t say it was for sure,” Byrne said.
But Byrne knew where things seemed to be heading.
On Wednesday, Jan. 10, Saban was in his office at his regular time, around 7 a.m. Even staff members who had been with him the longest said it was business as usual.
“But that’s just him. He was going to work right up until the very end, and that’s what he did,” said head athletic trainer Jeff Allen, who came to Alabama with Saban in 2007. “It’s a big part of why he’s the best to ever do it, that singular focus.”
Saban met with people on his staff that Wednesday and conducted Zoom interviews with prospective assistant coaches. The gravity of what he was planning to do was surreal even for him.
“I’m sitting there looking at the clock, talking to Ms. Terry, and you know you’ve got a team meeting coming up. I guess I still wasn’t 100 percent sure,” Saban said. “I thought it was the right time for us. I didn’t like how it would impact the program, the players, the coaches, the people in the organization, the university. That part of it was really hard. But it was inevitable that it was going to happen at some point in time, and I didn’t want to ride the program down.
“It was just the right time.”
SABAN WAS ADAMANT that his players hear the news from him first, and he addressed them in the team meeting room. Byrne and members of the Alabama football staff also were present. There was an eerie hush as Saban exited the room, and Byrne then stepped to the podium and spoke to the players. He later met with the team’s leadership group, then conducted an internal meeting with administrative staff members in his conference room.
As Byrne left campus Wednesday evening, he began reaching out to former players from different eras. He talked to Joe Namath, Mark Ingram, Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith.
“Not to discuss candidates, but it was more, ‘What do you think if you were in my shoes?'” Byrne said. “Because they may have had a piece of information I hadn’t thought about, which is good.”
Equally important, Byrne said, was the alignment at the university with president Stuart Bell and the board of trustees.
“We were all ready and all on the same page,” Byrne said.
From the outset, Washington’s DeBoer and Florida State’s Mike Norvell were at the top of Byrne’s list. Both had what Byrne was looking for: a proven head coach who had won on a big stage and shown the propensity to develop players. Byrne declined to go into detail about whom he talked to first or his pecking order. But he had serious conversations with both coaches the day after Saban retired.
Throughout the interview process, Byrne was in contact with Bell as well as with Saban and Mike Brock, the athletics committee chair of the board of trustees. Byrne had to deal with only one agent as Jimmy Sexton represents both DeBoer and Norvell.
Immediately, there was speculation that Clemson’s Dabo Swinney and Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin were possible candidates. Swinney played and coached at Alabama, and Kiffin worked at Alabama under Saban. Both were part of national championship teams at Alabama.
Byrne said there were conversations in his circle about a handful of candidates, but sources told ESPN that neither Swinney nor Kiffin was seriously in the mix. Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who, like Kiffin, is also represented by Sexton, was another prominent name mentioned in media reports, but Alabama’s leadership knew Sarkisian wasn’t going to leave Texas, especially with the Longhorns moving to the SEC next season, sources said.
As expected, Sarkisian sent out a social media post at 11:50 p.m. ET that Thursday saying it was a great day to be a Longhorn with a “Horns up” image. A day later, ESPN reported that Sarkisian was nearing a deal for a contract extension with Texas.
Oregon’s Dan Lanning, who worked as a graduate assistant under Saban at Alabama, made it clear earlier Thursday that he wasn’t a candidate despite erroneous reports that he had been spotted in Tuscaloosa. Lanning, also represented by Sexton, released a video at noon Thursday confirming that he was staying put after two seasons in Eugene.
It didn’t really matter, though, because by that time Byrne was bearing down on his top two targets. He and his wife, Regina, met with DeBoer and his wife, Nicole, on Thursday in downtown Seattle. There were also serious discussions with Norvell that day.
In fact, in the wee hours of that Friday morning, the fear among Florida State officials was that Norvell was close to trading his FSU garnet for Alabama crimson. Sources told ESPN that Florida State was poised to move quickly if that happened and that Kiffin would be a prime candidate.
Norvell, who in his fourth season at FSU led the Seminoles to a 13-1 record and ACC championship, declined to say whether he was offered the Alabama job, but he acknowledged to ESPN later Friday afternoon that the past 24 hours had been chaotic as he considered his options.
“You respect the place. You respect the position,” Norvell said of Alabama. “At the end of the day, it still comes down to the right fit. It still comes down to the place you want to be.”
There were sighs of relief around FSU’s campus when athletic director Michael Alford posted a tweet at 11:51 a.m. Friday that indicated a deal with Norvell was in place. Then at 12:07 p.m., Norvell took to social media to confirm he was staying put.
Shortly thereafter, news broke that Norvell had agreed to an extension on his contract that would pay him more than $10 million annually over the next eight years. Part of the agreement was a reassurance to Norvell that more money would be committed for his football administrative staff and a larger recruiting budget. A new stand-alone football complex was already under construction, along with upgrades to the stadium.
DeBOER’S EMOTIONS HAD run the gamut since the final seconds ticked off the clock at the national championship game in Houston. His Washington team fell one win short of a title, losing 34-13 to Michigan.
As the Huskies returned to Seattle the next morning, DeBoer said the last thing on his mind was that he might be on the verge of changing jobs. After all, it felt as if he was just starting his climb at Washington. The year before he arrived, the Huskies were 4-8.
“I mean, that Tuesday was hard,” DeBoer said. “We’re flying back from the game, and you’re just trying to get yourself back. I was texting kids on the plane just about how I felt about ’em, how strong I felt, especially the guys that were done with their careers. You’re working through all of that.”
On Wednesday morning, DeBoer woke up in the Pacific Northwest refreshed and ready to go.
“I was like, ‘OK, quit feeling sorry for yourself and let’s get up and let’s go. We’ve got to go win this thing. There’s another step here at Washington,'” DeBoer told himself.
Little did he know that his world was about to change over the next 48 hours. Early that afternoon (West Coast time), DeBoer heard the news that Saban was retiring.
“It wasn’t even on my radar, not sure it was on anybody’s radar,” DeBoer said. “And then immediately when it happened, people from all over start calling and you’re getting all these questions. I guess I knew with everything we’d accomplished that you might have some inquiries about jobs — but not that one.”
Later Wednesday evening, DeBoer got the initial call that Alabama was interested in talking. He had never met Byrne, but Byrne had long been a fan of DeBoer’s and the way he had won everywhere he’d been, including grinding his way through the NAIA ranks.
“It just happened so fast, all of it,” DeBoer said. “I get the call Wednesday night they want to talk. We’re meeting on Thursday morning, and I was offered the job on Friday morning. I didn’t have time to talk to a lot of people. I just knew I wanted the job.”
One of the first questions Byrne asked DeBoer during their Thursday meeting was the inevitable: “How do you respond to the narrative that you never want to be the one who follows a legend but rather the one that follows the one who follows the legend?”
DeBoer’s response was exactly what Byrne wanted to hear.
“I’m going to embrace it,” DeBoer said. “There’s only one person that’s ever going to get to do that.”
Washington did its best to keep DeBoer, who rejected two contract offers from the Huskies. The first one came during the season, when DeBoer passed on an extension that would have taken him to a maximum of $9 million annually. The final rejection came that Thursday during Alabama’s talks with DeBoer, when Washington offered a base salary of $9 million that would have maxed out at $9.6 million. DeBoer earned $4.2 million last fall. His buyout was $12 million.
When DeBoer was offered the job Friday morning, one of the first calls he made was to Saban.
“I picked up the phone and reached out,” DeBoer said. “It was great, just, out of respect. I hope he knows how much it means to me to be coming in behind him.”
By 2 p.m. ET Friday, Alabama was finalizing a deal with DeBoer. He told his players later that afternoon that he was taking the Alabama job before boarding a private jet bound for Tuscaloosa that evening.
“The hardest part is when you get put in that spot where the call does come, especially this one just because now you’re a head coach,” DeBoer said. “You’re not a coordinator going to a head-coaching job. You’re not at a Group of 5 school where you’re going from Fresno State to Washington. This was the toughest one of them all.
“We loved Washington, the people there, our players, everything we’d accomplished in two years. But I also just loved everything about Greg Byrne and our conversation together and everything that Alabama football stands for, the proud tradition of this program and how deep it runs.”
When DeBoer climbed off the jet in Tuscaloosa, fans were lining the fences at the airport to congratulate him. Later that evening, he met with the Alabama team for the first time.
“I hope you appreciate what you’re a part of,” DeBoer told the players. “That’s why I wanted to be here. This place is not normal. It’s special.”
Even before his first day on campus was over, he knew the short-term challenges ahead were already piling up.
Key players were entering the transfer portal or talking about it, and coaches were leaving. Two of the Tide’s most promising young players left within a week of DeBoer’s hiring, safety Caleb Downs to Ohio State and offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor to Iowa. There were also coaches coming and going, as DeBoer worked to assemble his staff and had to go through two waves of hiring assistants.
One of the things that was so heartening to DeBoer during that time was the way some of the pillars on Alabama’s team — Tyler Booker, Deontae Lawson, Malachi Moore and Jalen Milroe — remained committed during all the changes.
“We’ve embraced the change and, as a group, want to finish what we started,” Lawson told ESPN. “We’re not running from change. We’re buying in and know we’re in good hands. We have full trust in Coach DeBoer and the coaches he’s bringing in.”
DeBoer understands how some would look at the sheer number of players leaving during that time — 10 players entered the portal in the nine days after Saban’s announcement, and more than 25 did over the course of the offseason — and think Alabama’s ship was taking on water. But he never viewed it that way.
“We had about 30 guys, and those are rough numbers, that have come into the program, and actually more than that when you count the guys coming in this summer,” said DeBoer, adding that Alabama might add some players during the spring portal. “There was some attrition that needed to happen, and some of it was happening before I even got this job.”
With his first spring practice at Alabama opening earlier this week, DeBoer said he hasn’t spent any time thinking about everything that led him to the Tide. He just knows he’s here and ready to take on perhaps the biggest challenge any coach has ever faced in college football.
“I couldn’t say no to that challenge,” DeBoer said.
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David Schoenfield
The early returns from the MLB trade deadline are filtering in. The dog days of August are challenging pitching staffs. The Boston Red Sox are humming, the New York Yankees are stumbling and the New York Mets might be crumbling. Yes, it’s going to be a fun stretch drive.
How do the postseason races stand? Let’s break down the contenders into playoff tiers.
Tier I: The locks
Biggest surprise: Andrew Vaughn has been raking since coming over from the White Sox in a trade in which Chicago was clearing him off its roster. Rhys Hoskins might return from the injured list later this month, but Vaughn has hit so well that Hoskins has likely been Wally Pipp-ed and relegated to part-time DH duty (depending on how often Christian Yelich can play the outfield). Vaughn has — so far — provided some much-needed power, which had been the Brewers’ only weakness.
Injury to watch: Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is out because of a shin contusion but should be back soon, and the Brewers probably welcomed the break to limit his innings anyway. So keep an eye on Jackson Chourio, who is likely out a couple more weeks because of a strained hamstring. Chourio had been red-hot in July, with an OPS over 1.000 before hitting the IL.
Player to watch: Brandon Woodruff. The one-time Brewers ace hadn’t pitched since September 2023 before finally returning in July and has delivered six excellent starts with a 2.29 ERA, 45 strikeouts and just six walks.
His fastball velocity isn’t where it was before his shoulder injury, but Woodruff has been locating where he wants, as batters are hitting .111 against his four-seamer and .156 against his sinker. A playoff rotation with Freddy Peralta, Woodruff, Misiorowski and Quinn Priester, who has won 10 consecutive decisions, looks like one that could deliver the Brewers their first World Series title.
Biggest surprise: Well, there are two ways to look at this. The Dodgers are in the bottom half of the majors in ERA with Yoshinobu Yamamoto their only starter who has been in the rotation all season. Sitting in first place despite those injury issues can be viewed as a pleasant surprise. Or maybe it’s a bad surprise that a team that was a huge favorite to run away with the National West has to fight for the division title.
The Dodgers have essentially used a six-man rotation all season, with pitchers making just seven starts on four days of rest. Yamamoto hasn’t started on all four days of rest all season. With the Dodgers battling the Padres for the division crown, will manager Dave Roberts go to a five-man rotation? What about in the postseason, when four days of rest is generally the norm if you want to use just your top four starters?
Injury to watch: Just one? While the rotation is slowly getting healthier (Blake Snell is back), late-game relievers Tanner Scott (elbow) and Kirby Yates (back) are on the IL.
Player to watch: With Mookie Betts seemingly mired in seasonlong mediocrity, the Dodgers will need Freddie Freeman to heat up again. The first baseman was hitting .374 with a 1.078 OPS through May but then hit .226 with just two home runs in June and July. In late July, he said he fixed something in his swing, and he hit .400 with three home runs in his first 14 games after that proclamation. If Freeman is back, the offense might be the best in the majors again.
Biggest surprise: The Blue Jays were 26-28 on May 27 but have the second-best record in the majors since, and journeyman starter Eric Lauer has been a key reason. After not pitching in the majors in 2024 and finishing the season in Korea, he joined the rotation for good on June 11 and has gone 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA since then, with the Jays winning nine of his 11 starts.
Injury to watch: The Jays signed Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5 million contract after a 44-homer season with the Orioles, but he has been out since May 29 because of a shoulder injury and hit just .179 before that. Getting back a productive Santander would help boost an outfield that has been mix-and-match all season.
Player to watch: The Blue Jays acquired Shane Bieber from Cleveland at the trade deadline, getting a pitcher still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He should have two more rehab starts before he’s ready to join the rotation — and the Blue Jays will be counting on him to be in the playoff rotation.
Depending on how Bieber performs, it wouldn’t be shocking for him to leapfrog Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman as the Game 1 starter. Lauer and Max Scherzer will be in that mix, with Chris Bassitt hanging around as well. That rotation depth is why the Jays rate as the heavy favorite to win the division — and at the minimum look like a playoff lock.
Biggest surprise: Everyone knew about Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s defense, but certainly nobody expected him to hit for this kind of power and turn into an MVP candidate in his first full season. He’s doing it despite the highest swing rate in the majors, which gives him one of the worst chase rates. He would have the lowest OBP for an MVP winner. Still, he had his highest monthly batting average (.308) and slugging percentage (.637) in July, although he’s slumping in August.
Injury to watch: The big one was Justin Steele going down for the season because of Tommy John surgery. Jameson Taillon is still out because of a calf strain. The Cubs acquired Michael Soroka at the deadline to help the rotation, but he lasted two innings in his first start before going down because of a sore shoulder, and his availability the rest of the season is unknown.
Player to watch: Rookie starter Cade Horton is emerging as a force. He joined the rotation in May and had a 4.80 ERA through his first two months but has allowed no runs in five of his past six starts, including his past four in a row. Coming off an injury-plagued 2024, the Cubs are being very conservative with the 23-year-old’s pitch counts (fewer than 90 pitches in his past four outings), but he has been efficient enough to give them five or six innings.
Some of Horton’s peripheral numbers — so-so strikeout rate, not a ton of swing-and-miss — don’t necessarily match up with all the zeros, but he’s limiting hard contact. With Soroka out, Horton is vital to the Cubs’ hopes of running down the Brewers in the NL Central.
Biggest surprise: Kyle Schwarber hitting a lot of home runs is hardly a surprise — he has reached 40 three times — but Schwarber as a potential MVP candidate? That wasn’t on anyone’s preseason scorecard. OK, maybe that’s still a long shot given that Crow-Armstrong’s all-around value gives the Cubs outfielder a big edge in WAR and Shohei Ohtani is now pitching to go with his Schwarber-like offensive numbers. Still, Schwarber looks unstoppable at the plate right now and leads the NL in home runs and RBIs as his OPS inches closer to 1.000.
Injury to watch: Aaron Nola has been on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his right rib and has made a couple of rehab starts, so he should be returning to the rotation soon. The Phillies haven’t really missed him because of their pitching depth, but a healthy Nola will bump Taijuan Walker from the rotation, plus he could leap over Jesus Luzardo as the fourth starter in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: Trea Turner hit well for three months to begin the season but went homerless in July, and his OBP dropped way off. At his best, he’s an offensive force who hits for average and some power while setting the table for Bryce Harper and Schwarber behind him. He can also have spells when he starts chasing too much and the offense dries up. The Phillies are a lock to get in, but they need the best version of Turner down the stretch to hold off the Mets in the NL East.
Tier II: Should get in
What they need to do to become a lock: The Tigers seemed like a lock when they held a 14-game lead in the American League Central before the All-Star break while playing like the best team in baseball. Then they lost 12 out of 13 games, and Cleveland got hot. The Guardians are at least close enough to put a little fear in the Tigers.
The lineup scuffled in July, but the bullpen still feels like the key here. The Tigers are 19th in the majors in bullpen ERA and 28th in reliever strikeout rate. It’s not good when you’re ranked with the Nationals and Rockies. They added some reinforcements at the trade deadline, but Kyle Finnegan and Rafael Montero aren’t solutions.
Injury to watch: The Tigers signed Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15 million contract in the offseason, but the 37-year-old right-hander has yet to pitch in the majors this season because of hip inflammation. After his first rehab stint was cut short in June, he’s trying to get healthy enough to provide a boost to the rotation.
The Tigers traded for Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack, but Cobb could be in the same scenario he was with Cleveland last season, when he made just three regular-season starts but was in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: It has been an odd season for Riley Greene, whose strikeout rate is over 32% and whose walk rate has plummeted from last season (11% to 6%). The home run and RBI numbers are there, although he has been in a deep slump since the All-Star break. Can he be consistent enough to lead the Detroit offense and deliver in crunch time, or will the better pitchers in the postseason exploit his swing-and-miss tendencies?
What they need to do to become a lock: In 2022, the Padres made the biggest splash at the trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Hader and eventually reaching the NLCS. This deadline, general manager A.J. Preller was again on a mission, trading top prospect Leo De Vries to acquire Athletics closer Mason Miller to strengthen what was already perhaps the game’s best bullpen. Preller also filled some holes in the lineup with the additions of Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Freddy Fermin.
The Padres have the deepest bullpen and a deeper lineup. Will that be enough to cover their lack of power (next to last in the majors in home runs) and a middle-of-the-pack rotation (getting Dylan Cease on a roll would be nice)? Maybe. But it’s clear that to not just lock up that playoff spot but also chase down the Dodgers in the NL West, Padres manager Mike Shildt will have to ride those bullpen arms.
Injury to watch: On Saturday, Michael King made his first start since May 18 after being out with a pinched nerve in his shoulder. If King is at full health, having him and Nick Pivetta lead the rotation would pair nicely with that loaded bullpen.
Player to watch: Second-year center fielder Jackson Merrill hasn’t replicated his rookie power numbers, and his OBP cratered in July, when he hit .196/.262/.304. The early returns are better this month, and though the Padres upgraded their offensive depth, they need Merrill to be a force.
New York Mets
What they need to do to become a lock: It’s not so easy to buy your way into the playoffs, is it? The Mets correctly upgraded a struggling bullpen by adding Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto, but now it’s the offense that is going through some rough times. Despite adding Juan Soto and getting a much better season from Pete Alonso (he has already surpassed last year’s RBI total), the Mets are scoring fewer runs per game than in 2024.
The Mets were 21-10 at the end of April with a plus-54 run differential. Since then, they’ve gone 42-45 with a minus-24 run differential. Soto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have scuffled of late, and Soto has been terrible all season with runners in scoring position (.190/.331/.360). There’s too much talent here for the Mets to miss the playoffs.
Injury to watch: Tylor Megill, out with an elbow sprain, is the one injured player who could return and help, whether in the rotation or the bullpen.
Player to watch: Soto. It’s time for him to put the team on his back.
Tier III: Have work to do
How they make the playoffs: Hit better with runners in scoring position. The trade deadline additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, plus the gradual improvement of rookie Cole Young and the surprising production from Dominic Canzone, have made this one of the deeper lineups in the league. The Mariners rank 10th in OPS and second in road OPS — but they’re just 24th in OPS with runners in scoring position.
Injury to watch: Bryce Miller (elbow inflammation) has made two rehab starts. He threw four scoreless innings in the first outing but served up three home runs in the second. His fastball velocity was sitting at 96. He could be in line for two more starts before potentially replacing Logan Evans in the rotation — and giving the Mariners their projected five-man group for the first time all season.
Player to watch: Naylor was acquired for his bat, not his legs, but he is running like Rickey Henderson since joining the M’s, swiping 10 bases in his first 13 games — pretty remarkable for a player who ranks in the third percentile of all players in running speed. He left Thursday’s game because of some discomfort after a swing, but the Mariners said it’s likely just a day-to-day situation.
Boston Red Sox
How they make the playoffs: Keep pitching like they have. While going 24-10 since June 30, the Red Sox have a 3.08 ERA. Garrett Crochet has led the way and is now toe-to-toe with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but Lucas Giolito is also 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA over his past 11 starts and Brayan Bello is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA since July 1.
Injury to watch: Though he’s not on the IL, closer Aroldis Chapman left a game in late July because of back tightness. He has allowed one earned run over his past 32 innings, so keeping the 37-year-old healthy is vital.
Player to watch: Rookie outfielder Roman Anthony just signed an eight-year, $130 million extension (escalators could bring the total value up to $230 million). Though the 21-year-old has shown precocious plate discipline that suggests the bright future the Red Sox are banking on, his home run power hasn’t shown up yet, in part because he’s still hitting a lot of balls on the ground. He’s already good, but maybe he’ll be great down the stretch.
How they make the playoffs: Have Carlos Correa turn back the clock. In a shocking trade deadline deal, the Astros reacquired their former shortstop to play third base with Isaac Paredes injured. Correa was having a poor season with the Twins, with the worst OPS of his career, although he has hit better in his first week with the Astros. With an offense that has been forced to play a lot of Triple-A fillers because of injuries, Correa could provide a huge boost.
Injury to watch: Will Yordan Alvarez make it back? The superstar DH has played just 29 games, none since May 2, because of a right hand fracture. He has been taking batting practice in Florida. Meanwhile, Paredes remains out because of a serious hamstring injury, choosing rehab with the hope of returning this season. Center fielder Jake Meyers is still rehabbing a calf strain.
Player to watch: The Astros have struggled to fill the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez because of the injuries. Spencer Arrighetti just returned from the 60-day IL and allowed 11 hits and five runs in 3⅔ innings. He had a strong second half last season, so the Astros would love for him to step up as a strong No. 3 starter.
New York Yankees
How they make the playoffs: Hit better. Field better. Pitch better. Run the bases better. The Yankees are 20-31 since June 13, losing 10 games in the standings and dropping from first to third place.
It has been a comedy of errors at times, but, at the minimum, they need the bullpen to figure things out. The Yankees rank in the bottom third of the majors in bullpen win probability added. Maybe David Bednar‘s five-out save the other day will at least settle down the closer situation, as he’s likely to take over that role from Devin Williams.
Injury to watch: Aaron Judge is back from the flexor strain in his elbow that sidelined him for 10 days, although still serving only as a DH. It shouldn’t affect his offense, but the Yankees would love to get him back on the field defensively so they can use Giancarlo Stanton, who had been hot, as the DH. Stanton is unplayable on defense, so he’s limited to pinch-hitting duties with Judge occupying the DH spot.
Player to watch: If Judge is producing, the Yankees will score. The bullpen has the talent to get hot down the stretch. But suddenly, the rotation has some concerns as well. Carlos Rodon has walked 15 over his past 20 innings across four starts. Even going back to June 8, his ERA is just 4.50 after a great first two months. Is he a reliable No. 2 starter behind Max Fried?
Tier IV: The long shots
How do they get in? Continue to ride Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom in the rotation, figure out the closer situation and have the offense keep hitting like it did in July, when it was better than it had been all season.
Journeyman Robert Garcia had been closing of late, but he gave up two critical home runs to the Mariners last weekend and now that role is once again in flux. The Rangers are done with the Mariners, but their six remaining games against the Astros loom large.
How do they get in? The Guardians looked out of it when they were 40-48 in early July, with the Tigers seemingly running away with the division. But Cleveland has gone 21-8 since then, and the upcoming schedule is pretty soft as they finish this series against the White Sox and then play the Marlins, Braves and Diamondbacks.
Six games against the Tigers in September means the AL Central might not be decided until then. The offense, hitting just .224 through July 6, has averaged more than five runs per game since then, with a lot more of the timely hitting we saw last season. It helps that Jose Ramirez got hot right at that time.
Tier V: The really long shots
How do they get in? They’re the seventh team in a race where only six teams get in, so they’ll need to get some help, which the Mets seem to be accommodating right now. But the Reds also need to get the rotation back in a groove.
After posting a 3.69 ERA in April and 3.17 in May, the rotation ERA rose to 4.52 in June and 4.16 in July, but there are some positive developments. Hunter Greene is about ready to return from his rehab, and Zack Littell had a terrific first start with the Reds after coming over in a deadline deal, allowing one run in seven innings with a season-high 15 swing-and-misses.
How do they get in? If the Reds need a little help, the Giants will need a lot of help. They blew up the bullpen, which had been the strength of the team, by trading Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval, so we’ll see whether they have enough depth there. Same with the rotation. With Landen Roupp injured and Hayden Birdsong demoted to the minors, the rotation features recent call-ups Carson Whisenhunt and Kai-Wei Teng. Justin Verlander has reeled off three good starts in a row, although each was limited to five innings. They’ll need those three to pitch well behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
How do they get in? In the American League, anything still feels possible. Just look at last year, when the Tigers were already buried at this point, only to reel off an improbable run to the postseason. The Royals would need to leap past three teams to get a wild card, but if the Yankees keep fading, all it would take is a little hot streak to jump past Texas and Cleveland as well.
The Royals will have to score more runs, but the offense had its best month, and it has had a few big offensive games in August. Bobby Witt Jr. has had another strong season, but what if he really heats up like he did last July and August?
How do they get in? They’ve run hot and cold all season, going 16-12 in May and 17-10 in June before stumbling to 7-18 in July. The key will be the offense, which scored 151 runs in June but just 98 in July. Junior Caminero saw his OPS drop 150 points; Jonathan Aranda dropped over 100 points and then fractured his wrist; Brandon Lowe got injured and had just two RBIs in nine games (he’s back now); and Josh Lowe hit .186. The odds are slim, but we’ve learned to never count out the Rays.
How do they get in? The starting pitching will have to improve, as the Cardinals rank 25th in rotation ERA and 29th in strikeout rate. That suggests improvement — at least enough to produce a late surge — is unlikely. Oh, the offense also tanked in July.
It looks as if it will be a third straight season without making the playoffs. No wonder attendance has declined to its lowest per-game average since 1995 (not including 2021) and because that was the post-strike year, the lowest in a non-strike-affected year since 1984.
How do they get in? When the Marlins swept the Yankees last weekend to climb to .500, they momentarily offered a glimpse of hope, climbing six games out of a wild card. Then they lost three of four, so their playoff odds have dipped back to around 1%. You never know, of course, and maybe Sandy Alcantara will suddenly reel off eight Cy Young-caliber starts in a row.
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