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Jeremy Hunt has promised to help families with “permanent cuts” in tax ahead of today’s budget.

The chancellor, who is expected to announce a 2p reduction to national insurance (NI) in what could be the last major fiscal event before the next election, said “lower tax means higher growth”.

While he did not confirm what taxes he plans to slash, Sky News understands that a cut to NI is on the cards and the 5p freeze on fuel duty will be extended.

Money:
What 2p cut to national insurance means for your pay

Mr Hunt is also said to be considering:

• A new levy on vaping products
• Help for first time buyers, such as 99% mortgages
• A tax on air passenger duty for business class travel
• Cutting back plans to increase departmental spending to save money

Labour said that whatever is announced, it won’t be enough to “undo the economic vandalism of the last decade” – and the tax burden is still set to rise to a record high.

With Sir Keir Starmer’s party ahead by around 20 points in the polls, some Tory MPs want Mr Hunt to go further and cut personal income tax with an election approaching.

This is seen as a more headline-grabbing measure that benefits more voters, including pensioners.

But the chancellor is said to have decided against this after forecasts from the UK’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), gave him less fiscal headroom than hoped.

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Patel: ‘Budget should back working people’

‘Conservatives know lower tax means higher growth’

A 2p cut to income tax would cost around £14bn, whereas the 2p cut to NI will cost around £10bn.

Combined with the 2p cut to NI announced in November, the move will save 27 million workers £900 on average.

In comments released by the Treasury on Tuesday night, Mr Hunt said: “Of course, interest rates remain high as we bring down inflation.

“But because of the progress we’ve made… delivering on the prime minister’s economic priorities, we can now help families with permanent cuts in taxation.

“We do this not just to give help where it is needed in challenging times. But because Conservatives know lower tax means higher growth. And higher growth means more opportunity and more prosperity.”

Jeremy Hunt prepares his budget. Pic: Flickr
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Jeremy Hunt prepares his budget. Pic: Flickr

Mr Hunt added that growth “cannot come from unlimited migration”, but “can only come by building a high-wage, high-skill economy”.

He also took aim at Labour, claiming a government under Sir Keir Starmer would “destroy jobs” and “risk family finances with new spending that pushes up tax”.

Politics latest:
Will another NI cut appeal to voters?

Tories ‘overseeing 14 years of economic failure’ – Labour

But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said Labour is “now the party of economic responsibility” as she accused the Tories of overseeing “14 years of economic failure” with the overall tax burden still rising.

She said: “The Conservatives promised to fix the nation’s roof, but instead they have smashed the windows, kicked the door in and are now burning the house down.

“Taxes are rising, prices are still going up in the shops and we have been hit by recession. Nothing the chancellor says or does can undo the economic vandalism of the Conservatives over the past decade.

“The country needs change, not another failed budget or the risk of five more years of Conservative chaos”.

Read more:
Hunt’s task is not just to get voters on side – but MPs too
What to expect in the budget – from tax cuts to fuel duty

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves prepare ahead of Wednesday's spring Budget.
Pic: PA
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Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves preparing for Wednesday’s budget. Pic: PA

How will Hunt pay for Budget 2024 giveaway?

Experts have warned that a 2p national insurance cut would not be enough to stop the tax burden rising because of previously announced freezes to personal tax thresholds.

There are also questions about whether Mr Hunt can afford to pay for the measure.

He has said he will not pay for tax cuts with borrowing, meaning a combination of spending cuts and tax rises elsewhere will be necessary.

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‘Tax at highest level since WWII’

Revenue-raisers Mr Hunt is said to be considering include reducing the scope of non-dom tax relief, which Labour has said it would scrap to fund services such as the NHS.

A new levy on vaping is on the cards, as is a tax on air passenger duty for business class travel and a tax crackdown on those who rent out second homes for holiday lets.

The chancellor is also considering cutting back plans to increase departmental spending by just 0.75% a year, instead of 2%, to raise around £5bn.

While this would create more scope for tax cuts, it would likely prove controversial given the pressure already on public services, with a spate of local councils going bankrupt in recent months.

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Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey – who will be targeting Mr Hunt’s “Blue Wall” seat at the election – described the Conservatives as “the great tax swindlers” and said they should be prioritising the NHS.

He said: “Rishi Sunak has led the economy into a recession and forced families to pick up the tab. They have no shame.

“The Conservatives must put the NHS at the heart of the budget. It is no wonder the economy isn’t growing when millions of people are stuck on NHS waiting lists, unable to work.”

Watch Sky News’s coverage of the Budget live from 11am.

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Lloyds Banking Group in talks to buy digital wallet provider Curve

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Lloyds Banking Group in talks to buy digital wallet provider Curve

Britain’s biggest high street bank is in talks to buy Curve, the digital wallet provider, amid growing regulatory pressure on Apple to open its payment services to rivals.

Sky News has learnt that Lloyds Banking Group is in advanced discussions to acquire Curve for a price believed to be up to £120m.

City sources said this weekend that if the negotiations were successfully concluded, a deal could be announced by the end of September.

Curve was founded by Shachar Bialick, a former Israeli special forces soldier, in 2016.

Three years later, he told an interviewer: “In 10 years time we are going to be IPOed [listed on the public equity markets]… and hopefully worth around $50bn to $60bn.”

One insider said this weekend that Curve was being advised by KBW, part of the investment bank Stifel, on the discussions with Lloyds.

If a mooted price range of £100m-£120m turns out to be accurate, that would represent a lower valuation than the £133m Curve raised in its Series C funding round, which concluded in 2023.

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That round included backing from Britannia, IDC Ventures, Cercano Management – the venture arm of Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s estate – and Outward VC.

It was also reported to have raised more than £40m last year, while reducing employee numbers and suspending its US expansion.

In total, the company has raised more than £200m in equity since it was founded.

Curve has been positioned as a rival to Apple Pay in recent years, having initially launched as an app enabling consumers to combine their debit and credit cards in a single wallet.

One source close to the prospective deal said that Lloyds had identified Curve as a strategically attractive bid target as it pushes deeper into payments infrastructure under chief executive Charlie Nunn.

Lloyds is also said to believe that Curve would be a financially rational asset to own because of the fees Apple charges consumers to use its Apple Pay service.

In March, the Financial Conduct Authority and Payment Systems Regulator began working with the Competition and Markets Authority to examine the implications of the growth of digital wallets owned by Apple and Google.

Lloyds owns stakes in a number of fintechs, including the banking-as-a-service platform ThoughtMachine, but has set expanding its tech capabilities as a key strategic objective.

The group employs more than 70,000 people and operates more than 750 branches across Britain.

Curve is chaired by Lord Fink, the former Man Group chief executive who has become a prolific investor in British technology start-ups.

When he was appointed to the role in January, he said: “Working alongside Curve as an investor, I have had a ringside seat to the company’s unassailable and well-earned rise.

“Beginning as a card which combines all your cards into one, to the all-encompassing digital wallet it has evolved into, Curve offers a transformative financial management experience to its users.

“I am proud to have been part of the journey so far, and welcome the chance to support the company through its next, very significant period of growth.”

IDC Ventures, one of the investors in Curve’s Series C funding round, said at the time of its last major fundraising: “Thanks to their unique technology…they have the capability to intercept the transaction and supercharge the customer experience, with its Double Dip Rewards, [and] eliminating nasty hidden fees.

“And they do it seamlessly, without any need for the customer to change the cards they pay with.”

News of the talks between Lloyds and Curve comes days before Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is expected to outline plans to bolster Britain’s fintech sector by endorsing a concierge service to match start-ups with investors.

Lord Fink declined to comment when contacted by Sky News on Saturday morning, while Curve did not respond to an enquiry sent by email.

Lloyds also declined to comment, while Stifel KBW could not be reached for comment.

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UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

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UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in May, even after the worst of Donald Trump’s tariffs were paused, official figures showed.

A standard measure of economic growth, gross domestic product (GDP), contracted 0.1% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Rather than a fall being anticipated, growth of 0.1% was forecast by economists polled by Reuters as big falls in production and construction were seen.

It followed a 0.3% contraction in April, when Mr Trump announced his country-specific tariffs and sparked a global trade war.

A 90-day pause on these import taxes, which has been extended, allowed more normality to resume.

This was borne out by other figures released by the ONS on Friday.

Exports to the United States rose £300m but “remained relatively low” following a “substantial decrease” in April, the data said.

More on Inflation

Overall, there was a “large rise in goods imports and a fall in goods exports”.

A ‘disappointing’ but mixed picture

It’s “disappointing” news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said. She and the government as a whole have repeatedly said growing the economy was their number one priority.

“I am determined to kickstart economic growth and deliver on that promise”, she added.

But the picture was not all bad.

Growth recorded in March was revised upwards, further indicating that companies invested to prepare for tariffs. Rather than GDP of 0.2%, the ONS said on Friday the figure was actually 0.4%.

It showed businesses moved forward activity to be ready for the extra taxes. Businesses were hit with higher employer national insurance contributions in April.

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The expansion in March means the economy still grew when the three months are looked at together.

While an interest rate cut in August had already been expected, investors upped their bets of a 0.25 percentage point fall in the Bank of England’s base interest rate.

Such a cut would bring down the rate to 4% and make borrowing cheaper.

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Is Britain going bankrupt?

Analysts from economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the data was not as bad as it looked.

“The size of the manufacturing drop looks erratic to us and should partly unwind… There are signs that GDP growth can rebound in June”, said Pantheon’s chief UK economist, Rob Wood.

Why did the economy shrink?

The drops in manufacturing came mostly due to slowed car-making, less oil and gas extraction and the pharmaceutical industry.

The fall was not larger because the services industry – the largest part of the economy – expanded, with law firms and computer programmers having a good month.

It made up for a “very weak” month for retailers, the ONS said.

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UK economy remains fragile – and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

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UK economy remains fragile - and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are volatile and, on their own, don’t tell us much.

However, the picture emerging a year since the election of the Labour government is not hugely comforting.

This is a government that promised to turbocharge economic growth, the key to improving livelihoods and the public finances. Instead, the economy is mainly flatlining.

Output shrank in May by 0.1%. That followed a 0.3% drop in April.

Ministers were celebrating a few months ago as data showed the economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter.

Hangover from artificial growth

However, the subsequent data has shown us that much of that growth was artificial, with businesses racing to get orders out of the door to beat the possible introduction of tariffs. Property transactions were also brought forward to beat stamp duty changes.

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In April, we experienced the hangover as orders and industrial output dropped. Services also struggled as demand for legal and conveyancing services dropped after the stamp duty changes.

Many of those distortions have now been smoothed out, but the manufacturing sector still struggled in May.

Signs of recovery

Manufacturing output fell by 1% in May, but more up-to-date data suggests the sector is recovering.

“We expect both cars and pharma output to improve as the UK-US trade deal comes into force and the volatility unwinds,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

Meanwhile, the services sector eked out growth of 0.1%.

A 2.7% month-to-month fall in retail sales suppressed growth in the sector, but that should improve with hot weather likely to boost demand at restaurants and pubs.

Struggles ahead

It is unlikely, however, to massively shift the dial for the economy, the kind of shift the Labour government has promised and needs in order to give it some breathing room against its fiscal rules.

The economy remains fragile, and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner.

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Is Britain going bankrupt?

Concerns that the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is considering tax hikes could weigh on consumer confidence, at a time when businesses are already scaling back hiring because of national insurance tax hikes.

Inflation is also expected to climb in the second half of the year, further weighing on consumers and businesses.

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