NHL trade grades megafile: Report cards for every big trade
The 2024 NHL trade deadline is Friday, March 8 at 3 p.m. ET/noon PT. Some big deals occurred early this season, including Elias Lindholm to the Vancouver Canucks, Sean Monahan to the Winnipeg Jets, and Chris Tanev to the Dallas Stars.
We’re breaking down and grading all of the biggest moves from the 2023-24 trade season here, with analysis from ESPN reporters Greg Wyshynski and Ryan S. Clark.
Jump to a deal:
Mantha (VGK)
Lyubushkin (TOR)
Tanev (DAL)
Monahan (WPG)
Lindholm (VAN)
The Vegas Golden Knights landed Anthony Mantha, sending a 2024 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick to the Washington Capitals. The Capitals are retaining 50% of Mantha’s salary.
It’s possible that trading for Mantha in 2024 will go down as one of Kelly McCrimmon’s most strategic moves during his time as the general manager of the Golden Knights.
McCrimmon and the Golden Knights front office have dealt with this exact situation before. A year ago, Mark Stone was moved to long-term injured reserve after having a second back surgery in 12 months. They took advantage of the cap space that came with moving Stone to LTIR to trade for a pending UFA in Ivan Barbashev. Barbashev would play a key role in helping Vegas to its first Stanley Cup. It also paved the way for Vegas and Barbashev to subsequently agree to a five-year contract worth $5 million annually.
Fast forward to Monday when they had to move Stone to LTIR because he sustained an upper-body injury. That freed up more than $7.2 million in cap space that allowed the Golden Knights to go in a number of directions.
They decided on Mantha, which could prove to be a rather prudent decision.
Vegas is banking on the notion that Mantha can be a success similar to what they found in Barbashev. It’s entirely possible, considering the Golden Knights have seen it before with Adin Hill, Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo, Barbashev and Stone, among others; these outsiders all assimilated and carved a place within the lineup.
Mantha also fits within the Golden Knights’ premise that the sum is greater than the whole of its parts. He’ll be the ninth player on their roster who has more than 10 goals this season, and the 12th player who has more than 20 points. Remember, Mantha’s third 20-goal season came while playing for a team that was last in the Eastern Conference in goals.
While Mantha fills a need, an argument can be had that the strongest part of this deal for the Golden Knights is the price tag. Having the Capitals retain 50% of Mantha’s salary means they’ll have $4.426 million in deadline cap space left, according to Cap Friendly.
Then there’s this: The Golden Knights didn’t have to part with any of their first-round picks to get this one over the finish line. Between that and the cap space they have available, it leaves the Golden Knights with the ability to create an attractive package should they seek to add more help between now and Friday’s deadline.
Being seven points out of the wild-card race with more than 20 games left in their season meant the Capitals were at a crossroads, with the trade deadline quickly approaching.
Do they decide to hold firm with the hope of getting back to the playoffs after missing last season? Or would it make more sense for them to parlay their pending UFAs into draft capital rather than risk losing them for nothing?
The Capitals chose the latter, with the full understanding that this deadline gives them the chance to restock what was once one of the amplest farm systems in the NHL.
Moving on from Mantha was about getting the strongest possible return — with the caveat that they’re not the only team that has a top-six/top-nine forward that could be enticing for a Cup contender. This year’s market is expected to see players such as Pavel Buchnevich, Jake Guentzel and Reilly Smith all get traded to contenders.
What they received for Mantha allowed them to jump back into the second round of this summer’s draft, having previously traded their original second-rounder. But it also means the Capitals have quite a bit of draft capital over the next three years.
They now have 23 draft picks over the next three years, and could add more. The Capitals have pending UFAs such as Nic Dowd, Joel Edmundson and Max Pacioretty that could lead to them receiving even more draft picks that could help with building a stronger future. — Ryan S. Clark
The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Ilya Lyubushkin from the Anaheim Ducks in a three-team trade that also involved the Carolina Hurricanes. The Leafs received Lyubushkin and the rights to prospect forward Kirill Slepets, with the Ducks receiving the Leafs’ 2025 third-round pick while retaining 50% of Lyubushkin’s $2.75 million salary.
As for the Hurricanes, they received the Leafs’ 2024 sixth-round pick for serving as a third-party broker that will pay 25% of Lyubushkin’s salary.
Getting creative with the salary cap has been part of the Leafs’ strategy over the past several years. It’s become even more of a challenge this season when it comes to strengthening the Leafs’ defense. Both John Klingberg and Conor Timmins are on injured reserve while Jake Muzzin is on long-term injured reserve after he was ruled out for the regular season and playoffs with a cervical spine issue.
Then there are the more recent developments related to the health of the Leafs’ blue line. Timothy Liljegren missed a second straight game with an undisclosed injury while Mark Giordano left the Leafs’ 4-2 win Thursday with a head injury in the first period. That led to winger Mitch Marner filing in on defense — which was an option that Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said he even thought about before puck drop.
What Leafs GM Brad Treliving accomplished was getting reinforcements in the form of a sizable right-handed shot who not only strengthens their depth but provides them a more defensive-minded option — at 25% of his salary. Cap Friendly projects the Leafs will have $2.134 million deadline cap space. It’s enough room for them to think about another move before next Friday’s deadline.
It also helps that there’s a familiarity with Lyubushkin and the Leafs. He gives them another option for a penalty kill that has struggled this season with a 77.6% success rate, which ranks 24th. His 31-game stint with the Leafs saw him finish with six points in the regular season. Lyubushkin had a rocky postseason experience, as he was seventh among Leafs defensemen in ice time, yet he was on the ice for four goals at 5-on-5 which was tied for the second most on the team, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Could the Leafs have gone after other right-handed options? Sean Walker continues to be mentioned in the right-handed defenseman market. But the Philadelphia Flyers remain in the hunt for a playoff spot, currently third in the Metropolitan Division.
Matt Dumba, Alexandre Carrier or Tyson Barrie, the latter of whom also played for the Leafs, could have been potential targets. But Dumba has a $3.9 million cap hit. Carrier is slightly lower at $2.5 million, while Barrie checks in at $4.5 million. So getting Lyubushkin at his rate was a clear win.
The Leafs were also able to get the rights to 24-year-old Slepets, who has eight goals and 19 points in 53 games for Amur Khabarovsk in the KHL.
In sum, the Leafs were able to fill a need here, and struck quickly in a right-handed defenseman market that now has one fewer name. And they did it without having to use up much cap space.
This was a solid move. But where it gets tricky for the Ducks is that they could have sought one more draft pick because of the premium they face with retention slots at this year’s trade deadline.
The Ducks have a chance to use this deadline to make one for the NHL’s most promising farm systems even stronger. Adam Henrique is the most attractive option in the second-line center market. Frank Vatrano is one of the more sought-after top-six/top-nine wingers, while Sam Carrick provides contenders seeking a bottom-six option on a team-friendly contract.
Henrique is a pending UFA with a $5.825 million cap hit while Vatrano has two years left at $3.65 million per season. Carrick is also a pending UFA, with a budget-friendly $850,00 cap hit. The expectation is the Ducks will likely have to retain salary should they trade Henrique and Vatrano. Carrick’s cap hit should hypothetically be an easier one to manage, but it’s possible that it could prove challenging depending upon a team’s specific situation.
But here’s what pushes the grade to a B for the Ducks: While they were able to get a draft pick, they could have gone after more just because of the value retention spots have for teams seeking to add more draft capital this time of year.
Then again, it might not matter considering the haul they can likely get for Henrique and Vatrano.
Being a third-party broker is emblematic of two tenets that have become hallmarks of the Don Waddell era: Gaining draft capital and having quite a bit of cap space at an opportune time.
A three-year draft cycle generally means having 21 picks — seven in each year — assuming a team does not trade those picks. The Hurricanes have had a total of 30 draft picks over the past three years. This trade now gives them 10 picks in this summer’s draft, and another chance to add more depth to their farm system. Or they’ll package some of those picks to make additions of their own.
Cap Friendly projects the Hurricanes will have a little more than $5.8 million in deadline cap space. That leaves them with quite a bit of room to take an active role at the deadline should they seek to add help as they seek to reach the Eastern Conference finals for a second-consecutive season — and advance to the Stanley Cup Final this time around. — Ryan S. Clark
The Dallas Stars landed defenseman Chris Tanev from the Calgary Flames, in exchange for defenseman Artem Grushnikov, the Stars’ 2024 second-round pick and a conditional 2026 third-round pick (the pick changes hands if the Stars make the 2024 Stanley Cup Final). The Stars also received the rights to University of Massachusetts goaltender Cole Brady.
In order to facilitate the deal, the New Jersey Devils will pick up 50% of Tanev’s salary, and were sent Dallas’ fourth-round pick in the 2026 draft as compensation for doing so.
The salary cap inherently discourages transactions because of its fiscal constrictions. At the same time, it encourages some managerial ingenuity.
That was on full display Wednesday night when Stars GM Jim Nill used a three-team trade to acquire the best defenseman at the deadline with an expiring contract, for a miniscule cap hit and without having to sacrifice a first-round pick. It’s a trade that sets up Dallas for a Stanley Cup run and protects the Stars’ cap space and assets for further roster augmentation before next week’s NHL trade deadline.
It’s a major W for Big D.
Tanev, 34, is the quintessential “last piece of the puzzle” player for the 2024 deadline. He’s a 14-year veteran who plays on the right side. He’s a rugged throwback who is considered one of the NHL’s most effective defensemen, but one who can also break out the puck offensively. He ranks second overall in the NHL in blocked shots (171). He’s played his entire career in the Western Conference, so he knows the Stars’ playoff competition quite well.
It’ll be fascinating to see where coach Pete DeBoer ends up using Tanev on his back end, because he has options. Among the natural left side defensemen on the roster are Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter and 22-year-old Thomas Harley, who is second on Dallas in average ice time this season and has been playing with star defenseman Miro Heiskanen.
Also a natural left side defenseman: Heiskanen, who has been playing on his off side with a number of teammates this season. Pairing Tanev with Heiskanen would allow Dallas’s best defenseman to move back to the left side and go full throttle offensively, knowing that Tanev has the back end covered. It’s a role Tanev has played for defensemen ranging from Quinn Hughes to Noah Hanifin.
Thanks to the salary retention by the Flames and Devils, Tanev has a cap hit of just $1.125 million, which is lower than that of defenseman Jani Hakanpää, and Chris Tanev is slightly better than Hakanpää.
The Stars essentially traded a 2024 second-round pick, a 2026 fourth-round pick and Grushnikov for Tanev. They could afford to trade Grushnikov, as defense is an organizational position of strength. The 2026 third-round pick is conditional: Calgary receives it if the Stars make the Stanley Cup Final, which they’ll gladly ante up.
The Stars also snagged a goalie prospect in Cole Brady from the Devils. More on him in a bit.
The reason we can’t go all the way to ‘A+’ or ‘A’ on this one is that Tanev is 34 years old, he has played 773 games over 14 years and he’s played 70 games in a season only twice in his career. He’s got some miles on him. But that’s why the Stars wanted him: His experience, his savvy and his will to win his first Stanley Cup.
Overall, a tremendous trade for the Stars.
We praised GM Craig Conroy for the return he received in the Elias Lindholm trade with Vancouver, and hence were interested in seeing what he could pull at the trade deadline for Tanev, Noah Hanifin and potentially Jacob Markstrom. Looking at this trade … well, he still has Hanifin and potentially Jacob Markstrom.
Conroy told Fan 960 in Calgary that there was “lots and lots” of interest in Tanev from playoff contenders and teams outside the playoff picture. Whatever the market was for him, Conroy didn’t leverage it enough.
For 50% salary retention, Calgary acquired a 2024 second-round pick that could be low enough to essentially be a third-rounder given how good Dallas is this season; defenseman Artem Grushnikov, whom we will discuss in a moment; and a conditional 2026 third-round pick that only manifests if Dallas makes the Stanley Cup Final this season. There is a possible future reality in the NHL multiverse in which the Flames and Stars meet in the first round, in which Calgary will attempt to cost itself a third-round draft pick.
In Grushnikov, the Flames have acquired someone they hope becomes Chris Tanev, basically. They’re around the same size. They’re both defensive defensemen, with Conroy calling out Grushnikov’s penalty killing prowess and his work in the defensive zone. He has a high compete level and has fared well in his first AHL season. But he doesn’t have the puck movement skills of Tanev and there hasn’t been much evidence that he’s anything more than a big hitting defender who’s solid in his own end. Conroy seems fine with that one-dimensional play and the fact that he’s got proof of concept rather than the mystery of a draft pick.
Grushnikov’s development is the key to the deal. Otherwise, the Flames acquired a pick that might not be within the first 50 in the draft, and another pick that won’t exist if the Stars fall short of the Stanley Cup Final. That was for allegedly the most coveted defensive defenseman at the deadline who generated “lots and lots” of interest.
Well, this wasn’t the New Jersey-Calgary trade involving a goalie we thought we’d see at the deadline. But then again we also didn’t anticipate the Devils would be a salary cap retention intermediary at the deadline, either.
The Devils took on $1.125 million in dead cap space for a 2026 fourth-round pick from Dallas. They had the space to do so, with Dougie Hamilton on long-term injured reserve, taking more than $8.3 million off their cap.
The Devils had to trade a player rather than “future considerations” in the deal, so they sent unsigned goalie prospect Cole Brady to the Flames for Tanev, and then the Flames traded Brady to the Stars to complete the three-way deal.
Brady has played nine games at UMass this season with an .886 save percentage. He transferred there in 2022 after two seasons at Arizona State. The Devils took him in the fifth round in 2019. That New Jersey is punting on a goalie prospect should tell you all you need to know about their relationship with Brady and where he fits in their future plans. His rights expire this summer, making this just a name to satisfy a requirement and probably not much more. — Greg Wyshynski
This trade saw veteran center Sean Monahan dealt to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for a 2024 first-round draft pick and a 2027 conditional third-round pick going back to the Montreal Canadiens.
This is going to go down as one of the greatest examples of asset management in the salary cap era.
In August 2022, the Canadiens and Calgary Flames made a trade. Montreal acquired Monahan in the final year of his contract, which carried a $6.375 million cap hit. Monahan’s star had dimmed after being one of the top centers in the league for the Flames from 2017-19. He has had two hip surgeries, a groin surgery and wrist surgery in the last few seasons.
The Flames wanted his salary off their roster, so they traded a conditional 2025 first-round pick to the Canadiens, who had plenty of cap room for Monahan.
He played only 25 games in his first season in Montreal, which were enough to inspire some hope that he was on the road back to effectiveness; the Habs signed him to a one-year, $1.985 million deal heading into 2023-24. Thanks to his point production, his minuscule cap hit and his expiring contract, Monahan became one of the most coveted centers ahead of the trade deadline.
The Canadiens traded Monahan to the Jets for another first-round pick.
It’s possible that even at the peak of his NHL production that Monahan would not have garnered two first-round picks in a trade. That he basically did through the Canadiens’ two trades — for a 29-year-old reclamation project with an expiring contract and a specious health history — is one of the best uses of salary cap space and value inflation in recent memory.
Kudos to GM Kent Hughes for a master class in asset management, aided by a trade market that was friendly to Monahan.
It’s difficult to talk about Monahan without talking about what might have been.
An NHL source confirms that the Jets were in pursuit of center Elias Lindholm before the Vancouver Canucks‘ aggressive courtship landed the Flames forward on Wednesday for a first-rounder, a conditional pick, a roster player and two prospects.
Lindholm is the better, more complete player, even if it could be argued that Monahan is having the better season. In an odd way, these two trades are mirror images of each other: Vancouver going big to get Lindholm based on everything he did before this season and Winnipeg trading a first-rounder based on everything Monahan did this season.
Monahan is a playmaking center and a power-play asset, although goal-scoring in either situation isn’t anywhere near his early-career efficiency. Coach Rick Bowness told me on Friday that he expects Monahan to start on a line with Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers, two players that can find the back of the net for the Jets.
He should also provide a boost to their power play, which ranks 24th in the NHL (15.7%) this season.
Last month, I predicted the Jets would go all-in for a center. They’ve been a pleasant surprise this season — especially with their team defense — but still had a significant hole in their lineup behind Mark Scheifele, thanks to last summer’s trade of Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings.
They had Vladislav Namestnikov and Adam Lowry in the middle, with Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi also available in the pivot. But Monahan gives them a legit No. 2 center, and one that Bowness believes also passes important character tests for the Jets off the ice.
I was thinking B-minus overall here, but bumped it to a B because of Monahan’s incredible cap value, a point of demarcation with Lindholm ($4.85 million). Overall, a solid pickup for a surprising contender, snagging one the trade board’s top remaining centers on an expiring contract. — Greg Wyshynski
The Vancouver Canucks acquired center Elias Lindholm from the Calgary Flames in exchange for forward Andrei Kuzmenko, defensemen Hunter Brzustewicz and Joni Jurmo, a 2024 first-round pick and a conditional 2024 fourth-round pick.
“He’s a team guy who gives it everything, every shift.”
That’s Canucks president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford’s assessment of Elias Lindholm … from the 2013 NHL draft. That’s when then-Carolina Hurricanes GM Rutherford selected him fifth overall, right before center Sean Monahan was taken by the Flames.
In acquiring Lindholm, the Canucks remove one of the biggest names from the NHL trade deadline board. (Ironically, Monahan, now with Montreal, might currently be the top center available at the deadline.) Lindholm was coveted by teams trying to add an elite two-way player on an expiring contract to their top six. The Colorado Avalanche had inquired about him. There was speculation that Boston was in the mix. But the Canucks jumped the line with an offer the Flames couldn’t refuse.
What does Lindholm bring to the Canucks? Versatility, for one. There’s been a years-long trend in the NHL in which traditional centers are also adept at producing on the wing. Lindholm certainly fits that template. He wins 55.5% of his faceoffs. As a team, Vancouver is 16th in the NHL (50%) in faceoff proficiency. Most importantly, Lindholm gives the Canucks the right-handed faceoff guy they sorely lacked on their depth chart.
Seriously, it’s like Lindholm was made in a lab for this Vancouver team. He can play on a power play that’s already in the top 10 (25%) in the NHL. He can bolster a penalty kill that’s middle of the pack (80%). He’s a tremendous 5-on-5 defender, in particular in puck recovery. He was second for the Selke Trophy in 2021-22, although that might be because he scored 42 goals along with playing stellar defensively. The Selke is funny like that.
He’s also insurance against the Canucks losing one of their vital players to injury at any point down the stretch. The most important number for Vancouver this season is 49, or the number of games J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes and Brock Boeser have played — in other words, all of them.
What do the Canucks bring to Lindholm? A chance to get back to the offensive force he was two years ago. One of the most desirable attributes in an NHL player is to thrive with high-end talent. Lindholm’s offensive apex came while playing on a line with Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau. His scoring dropped by 18 points after they left Calgary, propped up by his chemistry with Tyler Toffoli. Then Toffoli was traded to New Jersey, and Lindholm’s productivity fell off a cliff this season to under two points per 60 minutes (1.9) in all situations.
Vancouver can slot Lindholm with Miller, who had 67 points through 49 games. Or on a line with Pettersson and Boeser. He can play on their first power-play unit. It’s like going from an offensive boxed lunch in Calgary to a veritable buffet in Vancouver.
Given the Canucks’ cap situation next season, one assumes Lindholm is a rental. If that’s the case, fine: Lindholm is an outstanding acquisition, a nitro boost to a team already cruising at the top of the conference. But it did come at a cost.
There were two trades last season that might have informed this one.
When the Canucks traded center Bo Horvat to the Islanders, they received a roster player (Anthony Beauvillier), a top prospect (Aatu Raty) and a conditional first-round pick in 2023 that they flipped for defenseman Filip Hronek. Horvat ended up signing an eight-year extension with the Islanders a few days later.
The Blues traded center Ryan O’Reilly to the Maple Leafs last season in a complicated three-way trade with Minnesota that included salary retention. In the end, the Leafs gave up two prospects, a first-rounder, a second-rounder, a third-rounder and a fourth-rounder. O’Reilly left as a free agent for Nashville.
So how did the Flames do within that context? Pretty good, actually, especially considering they didn’t retain any salary.
Andrei Kuzmenko needed to get away from coach Rick Tocchet, who wanted him to play “the right way” and wasn’t going to give ice time to a player he believed was a defensive liability during this outstanding season for the Canucks. It didn’t matter that he had 39 goals as a 26-year-old rookie last season. He had to earn his time with the team’s top players and Tocchet felt he hadn’t.
So it’s off to Calgary, where he’s signed through next season at a $5.5 million average annual value. He had the Flames on his no-trade list. GM Craig Conroy and coach Ryan Huska sold him on the promise that Kuzmenko would be placed in offensively advantageous situations. Perhaps he and Jonathan Huberdeau could find some mutually beneficial chemistry.
It would be absolutely shocking if the name Yegor Sharangovich didn’t come up. The Flames acquired him from the Devils in the Toffoli trade, gave him almost three minutes more ice time a game, and watching his offense blossom to the point where Sharangovich (20) has one fewer goal than Toffoli (21) this season.
If Kuzmenko can’t recapture the magic, he’s a free agent in the summer of 2025.
Of the two prospects, Brzustewicz is more intriguing than Jurmo, although the latter defenseman has improved this season while playing in Finland. Brzustewicz is a puck-moving blue-liner who could top out at 100 points this season with the OHL Kitchener Rangers. There have been lingering questions about his ability to be an all-around player at the NHL level, but it’s hard to ignore that kind of offensive spark.
The Flames pulled a first-rounder for Lindholm too, albeit one that could practically be a high second-rounder given how good the Canucks are. That fourth-rounder turns into a third-rounder if the Canucks make the Western Conference final.
It’s a potentially impressive haul for (yet another) free agent who wasn’t signing back in Calgary. For a franchise that’s still reeling from those defections, it’s another strong step toward whatever the next phase of the Flames ends up being. — Greg Wyshynski
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Dan Hajducky
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — It’s the top of the 11th inning of an early March baseball game at North Carolina. With a runner on first and two outs, a Coastal Carolina batter laces a single through the right side of the infield. The Tar Heels’ right fielder bobbles the ball, then slips. The runner barrels around third toward home, where catcher Luke Stevenson awaits.
The relay throw naturally takes Stevenson to the third base side of home plate, into the path of the runner diving headfirst. Stevenson slaps a tag between his shoulder blades, shows the umpire the mitted ball and erupts into a fist pump. The game remains tied. In the bottom half of the inning, UNC wins on a sacrifice fly.
The Tar Heels went on to claim an ACC title, where Stevenson was named MVP. They hosted and won an NCAA tournament regional, rose to No. 1 in Division I, then fell at home to Arizona in a super regional and missed returning to the Men’s College World Series for the second consecutive year. Days later, Stevenson, a draft-eligible sophomore, reported to Phoenix for the MLB combine. Depending on who you ask, Stevenson is the first or second-best pure catcher and a consensus mock top-35 pick for the 2025 MLB draft, which begins July 13 (6 p.m. ET on ESPN).
Stevenson and other catchers with MLB potential have long been evaluated on how well they manage pitchers, frame pitches and lead a team’s defense — including directing positioning and keeping runners from stealing and scoring. But MLB general managers and player personnel say dual-threat backstops such as Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, an AL MVP favorite, now rank as the standard bearers for players in the pipeline to baseball’s major leagues. The gap between a catcher with All-Star potential and one who could hold down the position at a replacement level is glaringly obvious.
What might not be so obvious, however, is just how much MLB’s 2023 rules changes are now influencing how the position is being taught, played, coached and scouted at all levels of the game — and just how much of a premium is being placed on the offensive abilities of catchers such as Stevenson or Coastal Carolina’s Caden Bodine, another likely early draft pick.
From high school and youth ball to college and the minor leagues, a shift has already begun. In fundamental ways, the value of the position itself is being reframed — and Stevenson is a fitting avatar for catchers joining the professional ranks at a time when their livelihoods are in flux, their success most likely dictated by their capacity to adapt to this new reality.
“I don’t want to say it’s a dying position, [but] the bar for a being a good catcher offensively is so low,” said one MLB director of amateur scouting. “You could be an everyday catcher if you hit .210 with 10 home runs. [But] if you hit .210 with 30 home runs and a Platinum Glove? You’re a superstar.”
Jim Koerner, USA Baseball’s director of player development, said it’s still imperative for catchers to wield “middle-infield hands” and a strong arm to be an MLB starter.
“[But] in five years,” he said, “once they institute robo umps, I think it’s going to be completely an offensive position.”
AHEAD OF THE 2023 MLB season, at the behest of on-field consultant and former Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox president Theo Epstein, the league instituted a slew of rule changes intended to energize a purportedly staling sport. Baseball banned defensive shifts, instituted a pitch clock, limited mound disengagements to two per plate appearance and widened the bases from 15 inches to 18 inches — all changes first tested in the minor leagues.
The dividends were immediate. In 2023, runners stole 3,503 bases and upped it to 3,617 last season, the most in 109 years and the third most in any MLB season. The average game time fell to 2 hours, 36 minutes in 2024, the quickest in 40 years. Attendance and television engagement records were set in 2023 and broken in 2024.
Just as quickly, it became harder for catchers to stop runners from stealing. Catchers faced an increase of nearly 12 and 14 more stolen base attempts a season in 2023 and 2024, respectively, than in 2022. Exchange times and pop times increased exponentially to compensate, as did the speed at which catchers throw on steal attempts. But runners are faster and — owed to new limited disengagements rules for pitchers — closer to their would-be stolen bases than ever.
From 2016 to 2022, the lowest average caught stealing percentage for a single season among qualified catchers was 22.28% in 2021. In 2023 it was 17.43% and, last season, it was 18.78%. Through July 7, MLB runners have stolen 1,947 bases, on pace to eclipse 2024’s total. The Minnesota Twins stole an MLB-low 65 bases in 2024; 14 teams already have more in 2025.
Jerry Weinstein, a Chicago Cubs catching consultant, said pitchers get the ball to the plate in the 1.3-second range, and catchers’ pop times are between 1.8 and 2.0 seconds.
“There’s nothing we can do to improve that, that’s a staple,” Weinstein said. “The average runner runs 3.35, one-tenth of a second for the tag … it’s a math problem. If the baserunner is perfect, and the catcher and pitcher are perfect based on those parameters, the guy’s going to be safe most of the time. Which is exactly what we’re seeing.”
But one MLB director of player development said even with the rise in stolen bases’ effect on strategy, the best batteries still control how efficiently they get outs.
“From an analytic standpoint, swinging the count in your favor is more valuable than defending the stolen base,” the player development director said. “Ninety feet matters in certain situations, [but] some teams don’t even care. They’d rather have a guy execute his stuff: High leg kick, deliver the stuff, go for the punch out.”
Behind the plate, he said, there’s a different catching archetype than there was 25 years ago. They’re now bigger, taller and can get under the ball with a one-knee-down stance behind the plate. But, unlike the days when an offensive juggernaut catcher was a rarity — Mike Piazza and Carlton Fisk, or dual-threats like Johnny Bench, Ivan Rodriguez and Yogi Berra — now an adept offensive catcher can separate himself from a logjam.
“If you can’t hit,” he said, “you’re going to have a hard time sticking around.”
From both 1991-1998 and 1999-2007, there were eight MLB catchers (at least 50% of games at catcher) with three or more .800 OPS, 10-home run, 50-RBI seasons. From 2008-2015, that number fell to five. From 2016 through 2024, there were three.
“The offensive product is incredibly low, the physical demands very high, and what we value in catching has changed so much and is on the precipice of changing again,” said a director of amateur scouting. “We put so much value on catchers being able to frame pitches and get extra strikes … and the minute that goes away, that drastically changes how we evaluate amateur and professional catchers.”
When organizations find offensive-minded catchers who are capable behind the plate, they tend to hold onto them.
“It’s getting harder and harder to find those guys that are really offensive, they’re few and far between,” a director of amateur scouting said. “You name one, then I’ll name one. I guarantee it’s going to be a short list.”
Another director of amateur scouting said part of what makes some catchers in this year’s draft so valuable is that they can catch and potentially be a standout offensive performer.
“You don’t want [a catcher you draft in the first round] to have a position change a year and a half down the road,” the scout said. “You’re going to move him to first base or left field, and now the offensive bar is so much higher there.”
Which is why some MLB scouts are high on Stevenson and think he can handle the adjustments the position now requires. He was steady behind home plate for North Carolina, a great blocker but below-average receiver. But it’s what the 6-foot-1, 210-pound, left-handed hitting All-America catcher did with his bat that has drawn the attention of MLB scouts: Among Division I catchers who have caught 90 games since 2024, Stevenson ranked second in home runs (33), third in runs (104) and sixth in OPS (.960). He drew 29 more walks (107) than any other catcher while having the second-best chase rate (17.2%) and second-most pitches per plate appearance (4.09).
Although some MLB scouts and player development personnel have raised questions about Stevenson’s glove and whether he could thrive behind the plate at the sport’s top level, others say his power and discerning eye come at such a premium that defensive concerns are secondary and correctable. One director of amateur scouting said Stevenson’s floor is backup catcher at the MLB level.
One executive of a team with a top-10 draft pick said Stevenson is in the mix that high because his defensive technique is easily adjustable, but an eye and bat like that at a position such as catcher is too rare to pass up.
“You could be an outstanding defensive catcher, but if you can’t hit a lick, it’s hard to make a roster as an everyday player,” he said.
“Hardest position to evaluate,” another director of amateur scouting said, “amateur catcher.”
He compared the predraft evaluation to college quarterbacks trying to play in the NFL: “Can you transition? With edge rushers, you have less than three seconds to get rid of the ball — same for a catcher, you want him to be better than two and to be able to throw it on the bag. Guys that are 1.78, 1.83, 1.85? They can get away with a higher throw, but the 2.0 guys have to be perfect. It takes a special human being to do it and do it for many years.”
Steve Rodriguez, Stanford University’s catching coach, was Trevor Bauer and Gerritt Cole’s catcher at UCLA before spending six seasons in the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks organizations. He lauded Stevenson’s prowess with a bat and said he is underrated behind the plate.
“[With] his ability and size to be light on his feet and his knees … I watch him and he can scrape the dirt with that knee down so easily: That means his balance and flexibility is at a high level,” Rodriguez said. “When you’re able to do that with the skill set he has with his hands, you have a pretty phenomenal player.”
Stevenson said UNC catching coach Jesse Wierzbicki, a former UNC starting catcher who played in the Houston Astros minor league system, hammered receiving and blocking drills all season — footwork, transfers to second base, stealing strikes. He also had inspiration at home.
“You’ve got eight guys staring at you, being a leader on that field, directing traffic,” Stevenson said. “I was probably 8 years old — my mom caught, so I was always wearing the gear — when I fell in love with it. It’s what I wanted to do.”
ON A FRIGID Tuesday morning in March, more than 50 high school boys in full uniform took the field at the USA Baseball Complex in Cary, North Carolina, with Jim Koerner in the stands. Koerner develops on-field programming and curriculum for USA Baseball’s 13- to 17-year-old teams and is one of amateur American baseball’s most important barometers. His son, Sam, 18, catches for Pro5 Academy’s Premier team, an elite developmental academy.
Scattered around the diamond were players committed to Old Dominion and NC State, Virginia Tech and UNC, Ohio State and Tulane. Haven Fielder, the San Diego State-bound son of Prince Fielder, is Pro5’s designated hitter. Sam committed to Division I Radford University in Virginia. Almost all of them take remote classes and rarely, if ever, attend high school in-person.
The elder Koerner said it’s a moment of extreme change, both for the beloved sport that has long been his livelihood and the position his son fell in love with. From a young age, Sam showed a natural lean toward catching, but Jim said he urged Sam toward the position he thought would provide the best chance of a prosperous baseball life.
Now he’s not so sure.
Twenty years ago, Jim Koerner said, catchers were as still as possible; now, framing and throwing are more important than blocking, and passed balls are skyrocketing.
His son, like Stevenson, is a left-hitting catcher. Sam is just shy of 6 feet and defensively gifted with a plus-arm. He also hits well for contact. He situationally adapts his catching stance: one knee down if the bases are empty, traditional with runners on. Sam said, even with the position under siege, it’s easier to throw out of that. Anything to tip the scales.
“[Sam] has aspirations, like a lot of young kids,” Jim Koerner said. “It’s hard to tell young kids, ‘Hey, man, you’re a really good receiver … but in five years, that might not matter. Just focus on your arm and hitting.'”
Sammy Serrano, Sam’s catching coach and a second-round draft pick in the 1998 MLB draft, said he isn’t worried about Sam or how he’ll adapt to rule changes. Serrano said Sam has an extremely high baseball IQ and he “just happens to be the catcher.”
During a game this spring, Sam Koerner took a relay from right field, swiped his mitt across the plate and waited: Runner out. Seconds later, he was in the dugout asking Serrano, what he could do to improve his timing and technique. It was a good play, but Sam isn’t interested in only good.
“He always wanted to [be a catcher],” his father said. “Two or three years old, he’d squat down in front of the TV and I’d be like, ‘Hey Sam … whatcha doin’?’
“He’d just point at the catcher on TV.”
DAVID ROSS’S WARM laugh spilled through a cellphone speaker when asked how well he would fare as a catcher in today’s MLB.
“I probably wouldn’t have a job,” he said. “I hit .180 my last year in Boston and I laughed: I got a two-year deal. I had a couple of deals on the table. That would’ve never happened early in my career when framing wasn’t a thing.”
Ross’s career was extended by his proclivity in the margins.
“When I was coming up, you had holds, hold pick, pitchouts, slide steps, four or five different signs from coaches that would help you manage the running game,” he said. “Well, that turned into nobody wanted to run anymore because the percentages didn’t match up. Now you see all these teams building with legit base stealers and athletes.”
After retiring following their 2016 World Series victory, Ross became a special assistant with the Cubs, then worked as an ESPN analyst before becoming the Cubs’ manager from 2020 to 2023, the first season under the rule changes. He is torn on some elements of the changes and changes that still might come, such as the Automated Ball-Strike system already implemented in MiLB that MLB tested this spring training.
“As a player, it’s a hard job, mistakes cost games, so, I love the challenge system because you’re going to keep the beauty of the game,” Ross said. “I don’t think we’ll get away from — you’re still going to be teaching kids about receiving, blocking, throwing, calling the game, the little intricacies of baseball. I don’t think that’s going to go away. Even with all the analytics, you still need a sense of feel back there.
“But offense has won out.”
Two-time All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy was an offense-first catcher out of college who became an analytic darling of the mid-2010s for his ability to frame pitches.
A mid-2000s ESPN feature on Lucroy pointed to then-Cubs general manager Epstein’s savvy in being an early adopter to the framing movement, which included the signing of Ross. Ironically, it’s the same aspect of the game Epstein might undo if an ABS system is implemented.
“Framing will be so devalued because of the advent of the ABS system and they’ll be prioritizing the offensive side of the position even more,” Lucroy said. “I’m biased, but I’ve experienced it firsthand.”
Lucroy predicted that the bedrocks of the position will remain.
“The most important part of the position is the game management and leadership,” he said. “There’s a lot of psychology that goes into it: How different guys communicate, how they receive information, take it in, apply [it]. You can’t take a paint brush and swipe it across and everyone does it the same way.”
Lucroy got to know his pitchers, learn about their families, how they respond to constructive criticism.
“How do you go out and speak to them properly to reel them in? Get them to change stuff up, change their thought process?” Lucroy said. “Are they a hand-hold guy? Do you have to tell them everything’s good, breathe, slow it down? The majority of guys are like that. On the flip side, a guy like Max Scherzer you can go out and yell at him, insult him a bit, and he responds positively.”
Lucroy said Jason Kendall once told him that the best catchers were also the best communicators, that their job is to make the pitcher look as good as possible.
‘”Make them more important than you,'” Lucroy recalled. “You want them to trust you and believe in you, like any other relationship. ‘Cause 99% of the time, guys don’t feel the best when they go out and play.”
Lucroy said catchers will adapt to the rule changes, because they always do. Lucroy said he thinks once an ABS system is instituted, catchers will go back into a more traditional stance, which means they’ll block balls better and throw out more runners.
But having experienced an analytics revolution himself, he worries about coming into an MLB transitioning between eras.
“The game is always shifting, always evolving,” Lucroy said. “If you go back and look at 2016, remember how the Cubs had Willson Contreras back there? And they put in David Ross. Why? Because David Ross is a veteran who ended up being a future manager who knows what the heck he’s doing and how to handle guys in big situations.”
Lucroy said he doesn’t think that’s an accident.
“Framing is important, to a certain extent,” he said, “but the best framers in the world aren’t catching in the World Series — the better offensive guys are. Even the years when I was one of the top framers in the league, I think I made the playoffs once.”
SAM KOERNER’S PRO5 TEAM took on a Canadian baseball academy at a minor league stadium in Holly Springs, North Carolina. The bases were wider — Sam called them “pizza boxes” — than those at the USA Baseball complex, so they stole more often here.
Sam was one of three catchers on the roster that day, and the only one committed to a college. He didn’t play until the eighth inning, and when he finally got to bat, he cranked the first pitch over the right field wall. It nearly hit a car on the adjacent NC 55 roadway.
His dad rushed to pull the video — it was Sam’s third in-game home run ever — but the camera was off.
In the press box afterward, Sam said he’s taking a gap year. He’ll enroll at Radford in the fall of 2026 and play with Pro5 until then, maximizing his growth literally and technically.
Sam doesn’t have to contend with new MLB-type rules yet, but if aspiration meets opportunity, he soon will.
“It’s already a challenge trying to hold runners on [even] though the rule changes aren’t affecting me,” Sam said. “I don’t know what else [catchers] could do. I’m just tryin’ to be as fast as I can to second base, on the bag.”
In working with thousands of players and coaches across the U.S., Jim Koerner said MLB’s rules changes haven’t been adopted at the youth levels, which means they haven’t directly altered how youth ball is played — yet. But for Sam and his peers, and even younger players, making it to an NCAA baseball team and eventually to MLB are the goals.
“The way pro evaluators are going to look at the catching position is going to start to change now,” Koerner said. “But on the flip side, when you value the guy on the mound as much as he’s valued now at the professional level, they still need to trust the guy catching. There’s still a confidence, a comfort, a leadership aspect.”
It’s the aspect Sam prides himself on most and what Lucroy said was invaluable.
“Building good relationships with my pitchers, always having their back,” Sam said. “It makes them perform better knowing they have a guy behind the plate where they can, even as simple as 0-2, they can spike a brick in the dirt and know I’m going to pick ’em up and block it and throw the guy out at first.”
At lunch in between his game and a weightlifting session, Sam inhaled a Philly cheesesteak. He buzzed while breaking down the catching techniques of Cincinnati’s Jose Trevino and San Francisco’s Patrick Bailey. He also acknowledged that during a game earlier, his middle finger got caught asking for a curveball and he took a 90-mile-per-hour fastball in the chest plate.
Jim said it’s just how Sam is; there is no version of him absent of catching.
“When he was 7 or 8, he’d get back there and see these big guys come to hit and … he’d be excited but he’d look at me like…” Jim said, his eyes going wide.
“I was scared to death,” Sam said.
“But he eventually warmed up to it,” Jim said, smiling.
They fell into a cadence, starting and finishing each other’s anecdotes. They’ve chosen a baseball life, devoid of free time. Jim wishes he were home more often, and Sam might as well live in catching gear. Recently, they tried to game-plan on a rare, shared day off. They couldn’t decide what to do. Eventually, Jim pitched batting practice to Sam.
“[At a] concert the other day, one of the guys was tellin’ a story about fishing, being out there with his daughter and she’s thinking, ‘We’re going fishing?’ The guy says, ‘It’s not … just fishing,'” Jim said.
“When I ask Sam, ‘Hey, do you wanna hit? You wanna go lift?’ For him, it might be just baseball.”
Suddenly, a knock came on the press box door to vacate. Sam and Jim turned in their chairs and shared a glance.
“Well, for me,” Jim said, packing up, “it’s not just baseball.”
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