NHL trade grades megafile: Report cards for every big trade
The 2024 NHL trade deadline is Friday, March 8 at 3 p.m. ET/noon PT. Some big deals occurred early this season, including Elias Lindholm to the Vancouver Canucks, Sean Monahan to the Winnipeg Jets, and Chris Tanev to the Dallas Stars.
We’re breaking down and grading all of the biggest moves from the 2023-24 trade season here, with analysis from ESPN reporters Greg Wyshynski and Ryan S. Clark.
Jump to a deal:
Mantha (VGK)
Lyubushkin (TOR)
Tanev (DAL)
Monahan (WPG)
Lindholm (VAN)
The Vegas Golden Knights landed Anthony Mantha, sending a 2024 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick to the Washington Capitals. The Capitals are retaining 50% of Mantha’s salary.
It’s possible that trading for Mantha in 2024 will go down as one of Kelly McCrimmon’s most strategic moves during his time as the general manager of the Golden Knights.
McCrimmon and the Golden Knights front office have dealt with this exact situation before. A year ago, Mark Stone was moved to long-term injured reserve after having a second back surgery in 12 months. They took advantage of the cap space that came with moving Stone to LTIR to trade for a pending UFA in Ivan Barbashev. Barbashev would play a key role in helping Vegas to its first Stanley Cup. It also paved the way for Vegas and Barbashev to subsequently agree to a five-year contract worth $5 million annually.
Fast forward to Monday when they had to move Stone to LTIR because he sustained an upper-body injury. That freed up more than $7.2 million in cap space that allowed the Golden Knights to go in a number of directions.
They decided on Mantha, which could prove to be a rather prudent decision.
Vegas is banking on the notion that Mantha can be a success similar to what they found in Barbashev. It’s entirely possible, considering the Golden Knights have seen it before with Adin Hill, Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo, Barbashev and Stone, among others; these outsiders all assimilated and carved a place within the lineup.
Mantha also fits within the Golden Knights’ premise that the sum is greater than the whole of its parts. He’ll be the ninth player on their roster who has more than 10 goals this season, and the 12th player who has more than 20 points. Remember, Mantha’s third 20-goal season came while playing for a team that was last in the Eastern Conference in goals.
While Mantha fills a need, an argument can be had that the strongest part of this deal for the Golden Knights is the price tag. Having the Capitals retain 50% of Mantha’s salary means they’ll have $4.426 million in deadline cap space left, according to Cap Friendly.
Then there’s this: The Golden Knights didn’t have to part with any of their first-round picks to get this one over the finish line. Between that and the cap space they have available, it leaves the Golden Knights with the ability to create an attractive package should they seek to add more help between now and Friday’s deadline.
Being seven points out of the wild-card race with more than 20 games left in their season meant the Capitals were at a crossroads, with the trade deadline quickly approaching.
Do they decide to hold firm with the hope of getting back to the playoffs after missing last season? Or would it make more sense for them to parlay their pending UFAs into draft capital rather than risk losing them for nothing?
The Capitals chose the latter, with the full understanding that this deadline gives them the chance to restock what was once one of the amplest farm systems in the NHL.
Moving on from Mantha was about getting the strongest possible return — with the caveat that they’re not the only team that has a top-six/top-nine forward that could be enticing for a Cup contender. This year’s market is expected to see players such as Pavel Buchnevich, Jake Guentzel and Reilly Smith all get traded to contenders.
What they received for Mantha allowed them to jump back into the second round of this summer’s draft, having previously traded their original second-rounder. But it also means the Capitals have quite a bit of draft capital over the next three years.
They now have 23 draft picks over the next three years, and could add more. The Capitals have pending UFAs such as Nic Dowd, Joel Edmundson and Max Pacioretty that could lead to them receiving even more draft picks that could help with building a stronger future. — Ryan S. Clark
The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Ilya Lyubushkin from the Anaheim Ducks in a three-team trade that also involved the Carolina Hurricanes. The Leafs received Lyubushkin and the rights to prospect forward Kirill Slepets, with the Ducks receiving the Leafs’ 2025 third-round pick while retaining 50% of Lyubushkin’s $2.75 million salary.
As for the Hurricanes, they received the Leafs’ 2024 sixth-round pick for serving as a third-party broker that will pay 25% of Lyubushkin’s salary.
Getting creative with the salary cap has been part of the Leafs’ strategy over the past several years. It’s become even more of a challenge this season when it comes to strengthening the Leafs’ defense. Both John Klingberg and Conor Timmins are on injured reserve while Jake Muzzin is on long-term injured reserve after he was ruled out for the regular season and playoffs with a cervical spine issue.
Then there are the more recent developments related to the health of the Leafs’ blue line. Timothy Liljegren missed a second straight game with an undisclosed injury while Mark Giordano left the Leafs’ 4-2 win Thursday with a head injury in the first period. That led to winger Mitch Marner filing in on defense — which was an option that Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said he even thought about before puck drop.
What Leafs GM Brad Treliving accomplished was getting reinforcements in the form of a sizable right-handed shot who not only strengthens their depth but provides them a more defensive-minded option — at 25% of his salary. Cap Friendly projects the Leafs will have $2.134 million deadline cap space. It’s enough room for them to think about another move before next Friday’s deadline.
It also helps that there’s a familiarity with Lyubushkin and the Leafs. He gives them another option for a penalty kill that has struggled this season with a 77.6% success rate, which ranks 24th. His 31-game stint with the Leafs saw him finish with six points in the regular season. Lyubushkin had a rocky postseason experience, as he was seventh among Leafs defensemen in ice time, yet he was on the ice for four goals at 5-on-5 which was tied for the second most on the team, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Could the Leafs have gone after other right-handed options? Sean Walker continues to be mentioned in the right-handed defenseman market. But the Philadelphia Flyers remain in the hunt for a playoff spot, currently third in the Metropolitan Division.
Matt Dumba, Alexandre Carrier or Tyson Barrie, the latter of whom also played for the Leafs, could have been potential targets. But Dumba has a $3.9 million cap hit. Carrier is slightly lower at $2.5 million, while Barrie checks in at $4.5 million. So getting Lyubushkin at his rate was a clear win.
The Leafs were also able to get the rights to 24-year-old Slepets, who has eight goals and 19 points in 53 games for Amur Khabarovsk in the KHL.
In sum, the Leafs were able to fill a need here, and struck quickly in a right-handed defenseman market that now has one fewer name. And they did it without having to use up much cap space.
This was a solid move. But where it gets tricky for the Ducks is that they could have sought one more draft pick because of the premium they face with retention slots at this year’s trade deadline.
The Ducks have a chance to use this deadline to make one for the NHL’s most promising farm systems even stronger. Adam Henrique is the most attractive option in the second-line center market. Frank Vatrano is one of the more sought-after top-six/top-nine wingers, while Sam Carrick provides contenders seeking a bottom-six option on a team-friendly contract.
Henrique is a pending UFA with a $5.825 million cap hit while Vatrano has two years left at $3.65 million per season. Carrick is also a pending UFA, with a budget-friendly $850,00 cap hit. The expectation is the Ducks will likely have to retain salary should they trade Henrique and Vatrano. Carrick’s cap hit should hypothetically be an easier one to manage, but it’s possible that it could prove challenging depending upon a team’s specific situation.
But here’s what pushes the grade to a B for the Ducks: While they were able to get a draft pick, they could have gone after more just because of the value retention spots have for teams seeking to add more draft capital this time of year.
Then again, it might not matter considering the haul they can likely get for Henrique and Vatrano.
Being a third-party broker is emblematic of two tenets that have become hallmarks of the Don Waddell era: Gaining draft capital and having quite a bit of cap space at an opportune time.
A three-year draft cycle generally means having 21 picks — seven in each year — assuming a team does not trade those picks. The Hurricanes have had a total of 30 draft picks over the past three years. This trade now gives them 10 picks in this summer’s draft, and another chance to add more depth to their farm system. Or they’ll package some of those picks to make additions of their own.
Cap Friendly projects the Hurricanes will have a little more than $5.8 million in deadline cap space. That leaves them with quite a bit of room to take an active role at the deadline should they seek to add help as they seek to reach the Eastern Conference finals for a second-consecutive season — and advance to the Stanley Cup Final this time around. — Ryan S. Clark
The Dallas Stars landed defenseman Chris Tanev from the Calgary Flames, in exchange for defenseman Artem Grushnikov, the Stars’ 2024 second-round pick and a conditional 2026 third-round pick (the pick changes hands if the Stars make the 2024 Stanley Cup Final). The Stars also received the rights to University of Massachusetts goaltender Cole Brady.
In order to facilitate the deal, the New Jersey Devils will pick up 50% of Tanev’s salary, and were sent Dallas’ fourth-round pick in the 2026 draft as compensation for doing so.
The salary cap inherently discourages transactions because of its fiscal constrictions. At the same time, it encourages some managerial ingenuity.
That was on full display Wednesday night when Stars GM Jim Nill used a three-team trade to acquire the best defenseman at the deadline with an expiring contract, for a miniscule cap hit and without having to sacrifice a first-round pick. It’s a trade that sets up Dallas for a Stanley Cup run and protects the Stars’ cap space and assets for further roster augmentation before next week’s NHL trade deadline.
It’s a major W for Big D.
Tanev, 34, is the quintessential “last piece of the puzzle” player for the 2024 deadline. He’s a 14-year veteran who plays on the right side. He’s a rugged throwback who is considered one of the NHL’s most effective defensemen, but one who can also break out the puck offensively. He ranks second overall in the NHL in blocked shots (171). He’s played his entire career in the Western Conference, so he knows the Stars’ playoff competition quite well.
It’ll be fascinating to see where coach Pete DeBoer ends up using Tanev on his back end, because he has options. Among the natural left side defensemen on the roster are Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter and 22-year-old Thomas Harley, who is second on Dallas in average ice time this season and has been playing with star defenseman Miro Heiskanen.
Also a natural left side defenseman: Heiskanen, who has been playing on his off side with a number of teammates this season. Pairing Tanev with Heiskanen would allow Dallas’s best defenseman to move back to the left side and go full throttle offensively, knowing that Tanev has the back end covered. It’s a role Tanev has played for defensemen ranging from Quinn Hughes to Noah Hanifin.
Thanks to the salary retention by the Flames and Devils, Tanev has a cap hit of just $1.125 million, which is lower than that of defenseman Jani Hakanpää, and Chris Tanev is slightly better than Hakanpää.
The Stars essentially traded a 2024 second-round pick, a 2026 fourth-round pick and Grushnikov for Tanev. They could afford to trade Grushnikov, as defense is an organizational position of strength. The 2026 third-round pick is conditional: Calgary receives it if the Stars make the Stanley Cup Final, which they’ll gladly ante up.
The Stars also snagged a goalie prospect in Cole Brady from the Devils. More on him in a bit.
The reason we can’t go all the way to ‘A+’ or ‘A’ on this one is that Tanev is 34 years old, he has played 773 games over 14 years and he’s played 70 games in a season only twice in his career. He’s got some miles on him. But that’s why the Stars wanted him: His experience, his savvy and his will to win his first Stanley Cup.
Overall, a tremendous trade for the Stars.
We praised GM Craig Conroy for the return he received in the Elias Lindholm trade with Vancouver, and hence were interested in seeing what he could pull at the trade deadline for Tanev, Noah Hanifin and potentially Jacob Markstrom. Looking at this trade … well, he still has Hanifin and potentially Jacob Markstrom.
Conroy told Fan 960 in Calgary that there was “lots and lots” of interest in Tanev from playoff contenders and teams outside the playoff picture. Whatever the market was for him, Conroy didn’t leverage it enough.
For 50% salary retention, Calgary acquired a 2024 second-round pick that could be low enough to essentially be a third-rounder given how good Dallas is this season; defenseman Artem Grushnikov, whom we will discuss in a moment; and a conditional 2026 third-round pick that only manifests if Dallas makes the Stanley Cup Final this season. There is a possible future reality in the NHL multiverse in which the Flames and Stars meet in the first round, in which Calgary will attempt to cost itself a third-round draft pick.
In Grushnikov, the Flames have acquired someone they hope becomes Chris Tanev, basically. They’re around the same size. They’re both defensive defensemen, with Conroy calling out Grushnikov’s penalty killing prowess and his work in the defensive zone. He has a high compete level and has fared well in his first AHL season. But he doesn’t have the puck movement skills of Tanev and there hasn’t been much evidence that he’s anything more than a big hitting defender who’s solid in his own end. Conroy seems fine with that one-dimensional play and the fact that he’s got proof of concept rather than the mystery of a draft pick.
Grushnikov’s development is the key to the deal. Otherwise, the Flames acquired a pick that might not be within the first 50 in the draft, and another pick that won’t exist if the Stars fall short of the Stanley Cup Final. That was for allegedly the most coveted defensive defenseman at the deadline who generated “lots and lots” of interest.
Well, this wasn’t the New Jersey-Calgary trade involving a goalie we thought we’d see at the deadline. But then again we also didn’t anticipate the Devils would be a salary cap retention intermediary at the deadline, either.
The Devils took on $1.125 million in dead cap space for a 2026 fourth-round pick from Dallas. They had the space to do so, with Dougie Hamilton on long-term injured reserve, taking more than $8.3 million off their cap.
The Devils had to trade a player rather than “future considerations” in the deal, so they sent unsigned goalie prospect Cole Brady to the Flames for Tanev, and then the Flames traded Brady to the Stars to complete the three-way deal.
Brady has played nine games at UMass this season with an .886 save percentage. He transferred there in 2022 after two seasons at Arizona State. The Devils took him in the fifth round in 2019. That New Jersey is punting on a goalie prospect should tell you all you need to know about their relationship with Brady and where he fits in their future plans. His rights expire this summer, making this just a name to satisfy a requirement and probably not much more. — Greg Wyshynski
This trade saw veteran center Sean Monahan dealt to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for a 2024 first-round draft pick and a 2027 conditional third-round pick going back to the Montreal Canadiens.
This is going to go down as one of the greatest examples of asset management in the salary cap era.
In August 2022, the Canadiens and Calgary Flames made a trade. Montreal acquired Monahan in the final year of his contract, which carried a $6.375 million cap hit. Monahan’s star had dimmed after being one of the top centers in the league for the Flames from 2017-19. He has had two hip surgeries, a groin surgery and wrist surgery in the last few seasons.
The Flames wanted his salary off their roster, so they traded a conditional 2025 first-round pick to the Canadiens, who had plenty of cap room for Monahan.
He played only 25 games in his first season in Montreal, which were enough to inspire some hope that he was on the road back to effectiveness; the Habs signed him to a one-year, $1.985 million deal heading into 2023-24. Thanks to his point production, his minuscule cap hit and his expiring contract, Monahan became one of the most coveted centers ahead of the trade deadline.
The Canadiens traded Monahan to the Jets for another first-round pick.
It’s possible that even at the peak of his NHL production that Monahan would not have garnered two first-round picks in a trade. That he basically did through the Canadiens’ two trades — for a 29-year-old reclamation project with an expiring contract and a specious health history — is one of the best uses of salary cap space and value inflation in recent memory.
Kudos to GM Kent Hughes for a master class in asset management, aided by a trade market that was friendly to Monahan.
It’s difficult to talk about Monahan without talking about what might have been.
An NHL source confirms that the Jets were in pursuit of center Elias Lindholm before the Vancouver Canucks‘ aggressive courtship landed the Flames forward on Wednesday for a first-rounder, a conditional pick, a roster player and two prospects.
Lindholm is the better, more complete player, even if it could be argued that Monahan is having the better season. In an odd way, these two trades are mirror images of each other: Vancouver going big to get Lindholm based on everything he did before this season and Winnipeg trading a first-rounder based on everything Monahan did this season.
Monahan is a playmaking center and a power-play asset, although goal-scoring in either situation isn’t anywhere near his early-career efficiency. Coach Rick Bowness told me on Friday that he expects Monahan to start on a line with Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers, two players that can find the back of the net for the Jets.
He should also provide a boost to their power play, which ranks 24th in the NHL (15.7%) this season.
Last month, I predicted the Jets would go all-in for a center. They’ve been a pleasant surprise this season — especially with their team defense — but still had a significant hole in their lineup behind Mark Scheifele, thanks to last summer’s trade of Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings.
They had Vladislav Namestnikov and Adam Lowry in the middle, with Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi also available in the pivot. But Monahan gives them a legit No. 2 center, and one that Bowness believes also passes important character tests for the Jets off the ice.
I was thinking B-minus overall here, but bumped it to a B because of Monahan’s incredible cap value, a point of demarcation with Lindholm ($4.85 million). Overall, a solid pickup for a surprising contender, snagging one the trade board’s top remaining centers on an expiring contract. — Greg Wyshynski
The Vancouver Canucks acquired center Elias Lindholm from the Calgary Flames in exchange for forward Andrei Kuzmenko, defensemen Hunter Brzustewicz and Joni Jurmo, a 2024 first-round pick and a conditional 2024 fourth-round pick.
“He’s a team guy who gives it everything, every shift.”
That’s Canucks president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford’s assessment of Elias Lindholm … from the 2013 NHL draft. That’s when then-Carolina Hurricanes GM Rutherford selected him fifth overall, right before center Sean Monahan was taken by the Flames.
In acquiring Lindholm, the Canucks remove one of the biggest names from the NHL trade deadline board. (Ironically, Monahan, now with Montreal, might currently be the top center available at the deadline.) Lindholm was coveted by teams trying to add an elite two-way player on an expiring contract to their top six. The Colorado Avalanche had inquired about him. There was speculation that Boston was in the mix. But the Canucks jumped the line with an offer the Flames couldn’t refuse.
What does Lindholm bring to the Canucks? Versatility, for one. There’s been a years-long trend in the NHL in which traditional centers are also adept at producing on the wing. Lindholm certainly fits that template. He wins 55.5% of his faceoffs. As a team, Vancouver is 16th in the NHL (50%) in faceoff proficiency. Most importantly, Lindholm gives the Canucks the right-handed faceoff guy they sorely lacked on their depth chart.
Seriously, it’s like Lindholm was made in a lab for this Vancouver team. He can play on a power play that’s already in the top 10 (25%) in the NHL. He can bolster a penalty kill that’s middle of the pack (80%). He’s a tremendous 5-on-5 defender, in particular in puck recovery. He was second for the Selke Trophy in 2021-22, although that might be because he scored 42 goals along with playing stellar defensively. The Selke is funny like that.
He’s also insurance against the Canucks losing one of their vital players to injury at any point down the stretch. The most important number for Vancouver this season is 49, or the number of games J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes and Brock Boeser have played — in other words, all of them.
What do the Canucks bring to Lindholm? A chance to get back to the offensive force he was two years ago. One of the most desirable attributes in an NHL player is to thrive with high-end talent. Lindholm’s offensive apex came while playing on a line with Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau. His scoring dropped by 18 points after they left Calgary, propped up by his chemistry with Tyler Toffoli. Then Toffoli was traded to New Jersey, and Lindholm’s productivity fell off a cliff this season to under two points per 60 minutes (1.9) in all situations.
Vancouver can slot Lindholm with Miller, who had 67 points through 49 games. Or on a line with Pettersson and Boeser. He can play on their first power-play unit. It’s like going from an offensive boxed lunch in Calgary to a veritable buffet in Vancouver.
Given the Canucks’ cap situation next season, one assumes Lindholm is a rental. If that’s the case, fine: Lindholm is an outstanding acquisition, a nitro boost to a team already cruising at the top of the conference. But it did come at a cost.
There were two trades last season that might have informed this one.
When the Canucks traded center Bo Horvat to the Islanders, they received a roster player (Anthony Beauvillier), a top prospect (Aatu Raty) and a conditional first-round pick in 2023 that they flipped for defenseman Filip Hronek. Horvat ended up signing an eight-year extension with the Islanders a few days later.
The Blues traded center Ryan O’Reilly to the Maple Leafs last season in a complicated three-way trade with Minnesota that included salary retention. In the end, the Leafs gave up two prospects, a first-rounder, a second-rounder, a third-rounder and a fourth-rounder. O’Reilly left as a free agent for Nashville.
So how did the Flames do within that context? Pretty good, actually, especially considering they didn’t retain any salary.
Andrei Kuzmenko needed to get away from coach Rick Tocchet, who wanted him to play “the right way” and wasn’t going to give ice time to a player he believed was a defensive liability during this outstanding season for the Canucks. It didn’t matter that he had 39 goals as a 26-year-old rookie last season. He had to earn his time with the team’s top players and Tocchet felt he hadn’t.
So it’s off to Calgary, where he’s signed through next season at a $5.5 million average annual value. He had the Flames on his no-trade list. GM Craig Conroy and coach Ryan Huska sold him on the promise that Kuzmenko would be placed in offensively advantageous situations. Perhaps he and Jonathan Huberdeau could find some mutually beneficial chemistry.
It would be absolutely shocking if the name Yegor Sharangovich didn’t come up. The Flames acquired him from the Devils in the Toffoli trade, gave him almost three minutes more ice time a game, and watching his offense blossom to the point where Sharangovich (20) has one fewer goal than Toffoli (21) this season.
If Kuzmenko can’t recapture the magic, he’s a free agent in the summer of 2025.
Of the two prospects, Brzustewicz is more intriguing than Jurmo, although the latter defenseman has improved this season while playing in Finland. Brzustewicz is a puck-moving blue-liner who could top out at 100 points this season with the OHL Kitchener Rangers. There have been lingering questions about his ability to be an all-around player at the NHL level, but it’s hard to ignore that kind of offensive spark.
The Flames pulled a first-rounder for Lindholm too, albeit one that could practically be a high second-rounder given how good the Canucks are. That fourth-rounder turns into a third-rounder if the Canucks make the Western Conference final.
It’s a potentially impressive haul for (yet another) free agent who wasn’t signing back in Calgary. For a franchise that’s still reeling from those defections, it’s another strong step toward whatever the next phase of the Flames ends up being. — Greg Wyshynski
Miami is inching closer but still needs some help.
With the Hurricanes creeping up to No. 12 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hope of having two teams qualify for the 12-team field is still alive. Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they’re better than Notre Dame — and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion — even if it’s No. 18 Virginia — is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. That’s evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.
Though the Canes have no margin for error and could still use some help above them, they might get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped one spot above No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating that the Rebels might not recover from a second stumble.
With Rivalry Week on the horizon, there are still plenty of scenarios that can unfold — and hope is still oozing from the bubble.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it might face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee would be the first step, but they’d also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s conceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, and Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of that would matter, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its place in the top 10. The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ résumé enough to jump Ole Miss, and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room. Oregon now has a 16.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it must beat Washington and it needs Michigan to defeat Ohio State.
First team out: Michigan. The No. 15 Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State and a loss by Indiana or Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head defeat to USC because the Trojans have three losses and dropped behind the Wolverines to No. 17 in the latest ranking. The loss to No. 8 Oklahoma, though, will probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, will have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech does that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a BYU loss or a win and losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas and both BYU and Arizona State win and Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 14.2% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. They must win at Pitt on Saturday, and it helped that the committee ranked the Panthers No. 22 on Tuesday night. Miami’s loss to SMU no longer looks as bad as it initially did after the Mustangs cracked the CFP top 25 at No. 21. Miami is getting some help, but it has also helped itself by winning three straight games by at least 17 points. Saturday at Virginia Tech brought Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been awaiting. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, and the Canes are within range of the committee revisiting the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re both in the same conversation as Alabama and BYU. If Miami can win at Pitt, the committee will certainly factor that into its discussion during the fifth ranking. It’s important to remember, though, that head-to-head isn’t the only factor in the room. The entire body of work is considered, and right now, the committee is more impressed by the Irish.
First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. And with No. 21 SMU now one of five ranked teams from the conference, the ACC title game is likely to feature two ranked opponents. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter two of which are above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get into the ACC championship game with a win and a loss by SMU or UVA. Duke can get in with a win plus losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of playing Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games. If Miami beats Pitt, the committee will compare that common opponent with Notre Dame, which also beat Pitt. They would continue to talk about the head-to-head tiebreaker, but that’s not the final determinant. Both Miami and Notre Dame can earn at-large bids, but if there are two Big 12 teams in, someone currently in the top 10 will have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chances to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave maintained their spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following the 37-13 win at Temple, their largest margin of victory this season.
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference title game, and multiple tiebreaker scenarios are still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — because Navy was not ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win and a loss by Tulane or North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fourth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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David Hale
We don’t talk nearly enough about luck in sports.
It’s only reasonable to want to believe the best team always wins, that the outcome of a game is the reward for a better process, that, in the end, we all get what we deserve.
But then you watch 10 minutes of Florida State football and it’s impossible to deny that there are football gods at work and they can be awfully vengeful.
And so it is that, at this late point in the season, the College Football Playoff rankings still hinge, in no small part, on a botched extra point at the end of Notre Dame-Texas A&M.
We can look back at Miami‘s game against SMU on Nov. 1 — a game that, with 2 minutes to go the Canes had a 90% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s metrics — and consider it a bad loss, then a week later, see Oregon — with less than a 40% chance of beating Iowa with 2 minutes remaining — pull off a comeback and have it constitute a critical point on the Ducks’ résumé.
Alabama nearly doubled Oklahoma‘s yardage but lost, Ole Miss gave up 526 yards to Arkansas and won, Georgia has trailed in the second half five times this year but has just one loss to show for it.
These things happen, and while there’s clearly valuable data involved — Georgia wins those games, because the Dawgs are really good — any time we’re discussing a one-game sample size, there’s room for ample debate over what matters and what doesn’t.
The committee’s job is to counterbalance the fickleness of luck with a calculated, rational, repeatable process of evaluation that, if applied again and again by dozens of different people, would largely yield the same results; something akin to scientific testing, a way to filter out the noise and get to what matters most. “The process,” as everyone from Nick Saban to Michael Lombardi have called it.
And yet, it’s hard to say exactly what the committee’s process really is. Even when it’s explained — Miami isn’t in the same bucket as Notre Dame, so they can’t be compared directly, for example — the logic often crumbles under the slightest bit of scrutiny.
Instead, the committee has mostly relied on its own luck, and each year, by the time the final rankings are revealed, the 13 games played on the field provide enough clarity that most reasonable people will proclaim the committee got things right, save for the occasional reminder to Florida State that, yes, the football gods are not Seminoles fans.
This year though, it’s increasingly likely the committee’s luck could run out.
We have one full weekend of games left. There are reasonably 16 teams who’ll make a case as to why they should earn one of the seven coveted at-large spots. Without a little luck in Week 14, the committee’s going to have some incredibly hard choices to make.
And that means we’ve got plenty of outrage left to send the committee’s way.
This past week seemed to be the apex of the biggest rankings debate: Notre Dame or Miami?
The argument here is easy to understand. The committee has consistently had the Irish well ahead of the Hurricanes, despite both teams having the same record and Miami holding a head-to-head win.
But you know what’s even easier to understand? BYU has a better record than both.
In fact, let’s look at some résumés.
Team A: Best win vs. SP+ No. 19, next best vs. No. 21. Loss to SP+ No. 2. Two wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 5 strength of record.
Team B: Best win vs. SP+ No. 9, next best vs. No. 25. Loss to SP+ No. 3. Six wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 6 strength of record.
Both look like pretty obvious playoff teams, right?
Well Team A just moved up a spot in the rankings, seems assured not just of making the playoff, but of hosting a home game, and no one seems to be arguing about its spot in the rankings. That’s Oregon at No. 6.
Team B would currently be our first team out, a team with a résumé that shows equally impressive wins, an equally understandable loss and a far more impressive breadth of quality opponents. And yet, no one seems to be arguing much about BYU’s spot in the rankings either.
Why is it that the Cougars — the forgotten one-loss team with a higher ranked win than Oregon or Notre Dame and a better loss than Alabama or Oklahoma — sit at No. 11 and no one seems to care?
We get the frustration over Miami’s placement. There’s plenty of anger to go around. But don’t let BYU get lost in the shuffle. The Cougars’ résumé holds up against all the two-loss teams and is on par with Oregon and Ole Miss. Somehow, the committee — and nearly everyone else outside of Provo — seems to be ignoring it.
Wait, are we really defending Notre Dame here? Hey, somebody’s got to do it.
Let’s take a closer look at the Irish, who’ve become the punching bag for every fan frustrated with the committee’s rankings.
Right now, Notre Dame is effectively the golfer who wrapped up his round early and is waiting in the clubhouse, hoping no one else makes too many birdies. The Irish are safely in the field, and only a road trip to lowly Stanford is left on the docket.
But as the committee’s rankings hold steady week after week, there has been more and more time to debate the merits of Notre Dame’s résumé, and when we reach the end of championship week, it’s hard to ignore that one team aiming for a playoff bid doesn’t actually play in a conference.
So, does Notre Dame really deserve the benefit of the doubt?
In short: Heck yeah.
The Irish have five wins against bowl-eligible opponents — more than Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt or Texas Tech.
Both of Notre Dame’s losses were one-possession affairs against top-12 opponents. The loss to Texas A&M came down to a fluke occurrence, as the Irish flubbed a point after try.
Notre Dame’s game control — about as good an estimation as we have for the eye test — puts the Irish ahead of everyone but Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech and Oregon.
In four games since Nov. 1, Notre Dame has beaten its opposition by a combined score of 181-42, lambasting Syracuse so badly in Week 13 that Fran Brown might not shower for a month.
Look at any of the underlying metrics — explosive play rates, defensive stop rates, Jeremiyah Love being awesome rates — and Notre Dame is as good as anyone in the country.
So yes, we get the more logical debates about Miami’s Week 1 win or Alabama’s superior schedule, but the bottom line is, outside of Ohio State, there’s probably no team in the country playing better, more balanced football than the Irish. That probably shouldn’t be the only consideration, but as we debate which teams ought to be docked a few points in the rankings, Notre Dame probably shouldn’t be at the front of the line either.
Yes, Miami has a good argument against the committee’s treatment of the Hurricanes. The committee, too, seems to acknowledge under-appreciating Miami early on, and is adjusting by slowly moving the Canes up one spot each week, hoping that’ll be enough to appease the masses.
But here’s a question: What if Miami’s real beef should be with the ACC, not with the committee?
For each of the past two years, there has been widespread consensus that the ACC’s best team is Miami. But, barring some truly high-level chaos in Week 14 — something the ACC is apt to provide — the Canes won’t be playing for a conference championship again.
When leagues were smaller and had two divisions, the idea of pitting one division champ against the other made intuitive sense. But with expansion and the end of division play, what we’ve gotten is wildly diverse scheduling and the potential for confounding tiebreakers to ultimately decide which two teams get to play for a conference title.
In the Big Ten and SEC, where winning the league isn’t a do-or-die proposition, that’s fine. In the ACC, where only the champion might get a playoff bid and there’s a real chance that six different teams will tie atop the conference with a 6-2 league record — well, that’s a big issue.
So, why not just tweak the rules of how a conference championship game is seeded? What if one spot goes to the team with the best conference record and the other spot goes to the next highest ranked team? Doing so would ensure both the most deserving team (best record) and best team (highest ranked) got a shot, and it would’ve ended any concerns about the ACC being passed by multiple Group of 5 leagues, because a mediocre team like Duke would’ve had no shot at winning the league.
The ACC has bent over backward to try to find unique solutions to potentially existential problems in recent years. This is a change that would be forward thinking, easy and beneficial to the league’s playoff prospects.
It just won’t come in time to save Miami in 2025.
Remember last week when Tulane was also No. 24, just ahead of Arizona State, and behind Illinois, Houston and Missouri, who all lost? It might seem reasonable, given that precondition, that Tulane would then move up, say, three spots or so, while remaining a tick ahead of Arizona State.
But no, a week later, the Green Wave still check in at No. 24, a spot the committee seems to have set aside as “Where we put a Group of 5 team,” like the junk drawer in your kitchen that holds packing tape and birthday candles and those weird scented oils your mother-in-law ordered for you off TV — a placeholder for all the stuff you don’t know what else to do with.
In the big picture, it probably doesn’t matter. As long as Tulane stays ahead of its compatriots in the Group of 5 — winning the American, out-ranking James Madison — the Green Wave will make the playoff. And perhaps that’s all that matters.
But of the teams that jumped Tulane in the rankings this week are Arizona State — still with a chance to win the Big 12 — and Pitt and SMU, who have decent odds of making the ACC title game. Georgia Tech, despite a miserable loss to Pitt, also held firm ahead of the Green Wave.
A year ago, the ACC’s championship game implosion earned Clemson a bid into the playoff, but also shifted the ACC behind Boise State, the best Group of 5 champion, allowing the Broncos to land a bye. The stakes have changed for 2025-26 — the top four conference champs are no longer guaranteed an off week — but that doesn’t mean Tulane should be fine settling for the 12-seed either.
Tulane’s strength of record is ahead of Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pitt. If one of those teams claims the ACC’s playoff berth, what’s the rationale for putting them ahead of the Green Wave? And the difference between the No. 11 seed and the No. 12 seed might be about traveling to the SEC or the Big 12 for a playoff game.
The Group of 5 has largely been set to the side by this committee all year, so none of this comes as a surprise. But Tulane — or JMU or Navy or North Texas or San Diego State — all deserve to be judged on the merits of their résumés, not by which conference they’re affiliated with.
The bottom of the top 25 seems to be prime real estate for the ACC, but the one ACC team who might most deserve one of those coveted spots between 20 and 25 is nowhere to be found.
Wake Forest has the same record as SMU, and it beat the Mustangs head-to-head.
Wake Forest has a better overall résumé than Georgia Tech, and it only lost to the Yellow Jackets (in overtime) as a result of an officiating call the ACC later apologized for.
Wake Forest is a game behind Virginia in the standings, and the Deacons have a head-to-head win over the No. 18 Cavaliers, too.
Look, Wake Forest doesn’t ask for much. The Deacons are like the friend who’s always willing to pick you up from the airport, only better because they’ll probably bring along a box of Krispy Kreme. So if some ACC team that no one respects is going to be ranked 23rd regardless, why not Wake? Because the next time a committee member’s connection gets delayed out of CLT, it won’t be Pitt offering to pick them up and give them an air mattress to crash on. That’s strictly a Wake Forest thing.
Also angry this week: James Madison Dukes (10-1, unranked), North Texas Mean Green (10-1, unranked and now losing their coach), Navy Midshipmen (8-2, unranked), Utah Utes (9-2, No. 13 after being this week’s team that somehow isn’t as good as Miami anymore), Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2, No. 10 and far too close to the edge of the playoff for comfort)
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