The best untold stories of Nick Saban from Kirby Smart, Lane Kiffin and more former assistants
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Chris Low
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Chris Low
ESPN Senior Writer
- College football reporter
- Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of the University of Tennessee
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Harry Lyles Jr.
THEY HAD A front-row seat for coaching greatness.
The coaches who came and went under Nick Saban, many of whom are now running their own programs, are like everybody else in the college football world. They’re still processing Saban’s retirement and have been since he announced Jan. 10 that he was walking away from coaching after winning seven national championships, six at Alabama and one at LSU.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart joked that he would like to fly all the coaches who worked under Saban to his new home in Jupiter Island, Florida, bring in a film crew and simply sit around and tell stories about Saban’s legendary career.
This is ESPN’s attempt to do just that, as we talked to 11 members of the Saban coaching tree, viewing the legendary leader through the eyes of the people who know him best.
Saban’s protégés, including Mark Dantonio from their Michigan State days, Jimbo Fisher from their time at LSU and Smart, Mario Cristobal, Lane Kiffin, Dan Lanning, Steve Sarkisian, Mike Locksley and more from Saban’s 17-year run at Alabama, share their most memorable, funny and moving moments and break down what made him one of the greatest coaches of all time.
From Saban’s decision to replace Jalen Hurts with Tua Tagovailoa at halftime of the 2017 national championship game to helping Sarkisian pick up the pieces of his life. We learn what Kiffin did to provoke an epic “ass-chewing,” about Smart’s awkward first interview and Fisher’s shared “West Virginia hillbilly” ties with his former boss/nemesis. We get insight into Saban’s softer side and some blow-by-blow accounts of Saban’s pickup basketball games.
One spoiler on those hoops games: Very rarely was Saban fouled.
‘It’s like dog years working for me?!’: Untold Saban stories
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has joked over the years that he received his share of “ass-chewings” from Saban during his time at Alabama. But nothing rises to the level of the one he endured during the 2016 fall camp.
The team was in a “good-on-good” drill, pitting the starting offensive players vs. the starters on defense, and even though Kiffin had been warned by other coaches not to go overboard and try to make Saban’s defense look bad, Kiffin couldn’t resist. He was hired in 2014 as Saban’s offensive coordinator with the specific goal of helping modernize Alabama’s offense.
“I’d come from the Pete Carroll camp. I wasn’t wired that way, to let the defense win,” said Kiffin, who spent three turbulent but successful seasons as Saban’s offensive coordinator.
Kiffin had several coaches on his offensive staff present different types of plays, or what one of those assistants recently referred to as “cool plays,” and put them in before practice. Everybody in the offensive staff room knew Saban wouldn’t be pleased.
“We had a really good day on offense, ran some reverses, threw a double pass and had all these touchdowns, and he said that all I was trying to do was win the drill and trick the defense and not help the team,” Kiffin said. “I was like, ‘Isn’t that the point in good-on-good situations on offense, to see if you can move the ball?’
“He was furious.”
His ears ringing from the chewing-out the day before, Kiffin changed it up the next practice.
“Stubborn old Lane, I ran the most generic, basic, under-center offense I could, sort of their old-school offense they ran under Joe Pendry,” Kiffin said. “And the defense killed us. We’d be third-and-8, and I’d have the quarterback under center.”
In the staff meeting afterward, Saban was again miffed and wanted an explanation from Kiffin on why he was going under center on third-and-long and running the ball.
“‘I’m just running what I thought you would want me to run against the defense,'” Kiffin answered. “Again, it was just me being smart-ass me.”
At that point, Saban cleared everybody out of the room except Kiffin, who knew what was coming.
“I have to sit there, and he is screaming at me, standing over me screaming as I’m sitting in my chair. I thought he was going to fight me physically,” said Kiffin, who can laugh about it now. “So, yes, I got a lot of ass-chewings, but that’s the biggest one and one that no one saw. But I deserved it.”
Saban, however, had one last salvo, which Kiffin and the offensive coaches from that staff still find hilarious. Saban compared Kiffin to a children’s book character, P.J. Funnybunny, a spoiled bunny who went around creating havoc.
“He screamed at me that I was the bunny,” Kiffin said, “and we were like, ‘What the hell is that? There’s no way Coach has read a little kid’s bedtime story like that!'”
SMART WILL NEVER forget his first interview with Saban in 2004 when Smart was up for a job at LSU as defensive backs coach. Smart was a graduate assistant at Florida State at the time, and his old pal Will Muschamp, then Saban’s defensive coordinator at LSU, had vouched for him.
“I go on the interview, and I’m young and unassuming, and there are all these stories out there that if Miss Terry [Saban’s wife] invites you to the house for dinner, she had to give you the OK. And if you didn’t get the OK, then you weren’t going to get the job.”
Lance Thompson was leaving LSU to take the UCF defensive coordinator’s job. Smart remembers Thompson, who worked under Saban two different times, telling Smart in passing: “Working for Nick is like dog years. Every year feels like seven.”
Smart visited the Saban home on Super Bowl Sunday, and they were all sitting around and talking after dinner.
“I was comfortable and feeling good about the way it was going, and I just say, ‘I don’t get it. People say working here is like dog years.’ I don’t know why in the hell I said that. Just dumb,” Smart said. “Think about it. Why would you ever say something like that to an employer you’re trying to get a job with? But I did. I guess I wasn’t overwhelmed or intimidated. I was too young to know any better.”
The next morning, Smart got a call from Muschamp after that day’s LSU staff meeting. Muschamp told Smart that an irate Saban barked to everybody in the staff room: “Which one of you dumbasses said it’s like dog years working for me? We’re trying to hire the guy, and you tell him that?”
Smart is still sheepish about it all these years later.
“I got the whole staff cussed out and somehow still got the job.”
MIAMI COACH MARIO Cristobal was Saban’s offensive line coach for four seasons at Alabama before moving to Oregon as co-offensive coordinator and later head coach. A second-generation Cuban American who grew up in Miami, Cristobal said driving to see recruits with Saban was always an adventure, especially with Saban being a renowned back-seat driver, something to which every coach who ever went out on the road with him will attest.
One time, Saban and Cristobal were driving to see a recruit in Iowa, and it was snowing heavily.
“I didn’t know how to drive in the snow, and we were almost crashing,” Cristobal said.
Saban looked at Cristobal and asked quizzically, “Tell me, man, there ain’t no snow in Cuba. Why the hell are you driving?”
OREGON COACH DAN Lanning got a taste of what working for Saban was like on one of his first days on the job as a graduate assistant at Alabama — and at Saban’s youth football camp, no less.
“I’m part of the group that’s running the bag drills. It’s not something unique, but Nick had a way that he wanted to run those drills. And it’s one of the first times I remember getting my butt chewed,” Lanning said. “The strength coach was running the drill and then he had to leave and go run the drill for our actual guys. So I had it, but I wasn’t doing a good job of paying attention to how Nick wanted the drill run.
“I learned quickly that I was running the drill wrong — and I’m talking about sixth- and seventh-graders. It wasn’t like these are the guys we’re about to coach. And it was just a great reminder to me: Pay attention to details. For me to get my best butt-chewing during kids camp, I think that just shows the intensity of Nick.”
WHEN SABAN CONTRACTED COVID-19 during the 2020 national championship season, he had to quarantine at home. But that didn’t mean he missed practice. He was there — just not physically.
Saban had Alabama officials set up cameras so he could watch practice from home via Zoom.
“We know he’s watching practice from home, and after practice, we bring it up [in the middle of the field] like we would if he was there. It was just routine,” said Marshall coach Charles Huff, who was Alabama’s running backs coach at the time.
As the team gathered, Saban’s football chief operating officer, Ellis Ponder, rolled a 19-inch television set on a stand onto the field in the indoor practice facility. Saban addressed the team on video just as he would have if he had been there in the flesh.
“And at the end, he holds up his hand and goes, ‘One, two, three,’ and everybody yells, ‘Team,'” Huff said. “It was like ‘Saw,’ the movie where the little TV rolls in, and boom, that doll pops up and gives you instructions.”
THERE WAS NO basking in championships under Saban, even after winning it all.
Georgia Tech coach Brent Key remembers traveling back home after winning the 2017 national championship, which was Saban’s fifth at Alabama. The game was on a Monday night, and the team returned to campus the next day. On Wednesday morning, there was a staff meeting, and there was very little reflection from Saban.
“He comes in, sits down and is like, ‘Guys, congratulations on a good season. We overcame a lot of adversity. We had injuries. We had guys prepared to come back,'” Key recalled.
But everybody in the room knew a “but” was coming, and with colorful language.
“But that was last year. We’re behind in recruiting. We shouldn’t have been behind in that game,” Saban said, his voice rising.
Saban had already moved on to the next challenge.
Key remembers looking over at current Maryland coach Mike Locksley, who was in his second season at Alabama as receivers coach.
“Locks goes, ‘Damn, that was yesterday! I just won my first national championship. Like, that just happened yesterday. I’m still hungover,'” Key said, laughing.
“That’s it in a nutshell, man.”
‘Is Coach OK?’: Saban’s softer side
When Kiffin’s three children were young, he remembers getting an invitation to the Sabans’ house for Easter. His first thought was: “I’m not getting yelled at on Easter. I get yelled at enough at the football complex.”
Kiffin’s former wife, Layla, was in town with the kids and convinced him to go.
“It was amazing. Coach was completely different,” Kiffin said. “I think his first grandchild had just been born, and he was walking around with [Kiffin’s son] Knox and helping him find an egg. I was like, ‘Is Coach OK?’ Because I’d never really seen that side of him before.”
Kiffin had a similar experience with Tom Coughlin earlier in his career while working with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
“Seeing that side of Coach Saban, it’s then that I understood that two of the most demanding coaches I’ve worked for were one way at home and then one way when they walked into that football building,” Kiffin said. “They felt like they had to be that way, to hold people accountable, to be tough on people, and obviously it worked because they’re both legendary coaches.
“But it was cool seeing that side of Coach Saban.”
FLORIDA COACH BILLY Napier said Saban and his wife, Terry, who have been married for 52 years, were an unbelievable team in the way they took care of their coaches and the coaches’ families.
“Don’t underestimate the impact Miss Terry had on him and all that touched that program,” Napier said. “I was always grateful when I got there in 2011 after being let go as offensive coordinator at Clemson and kind of starting my career over. He believed in me and gave me another chance, the same thing he’s done for so many coaches.”
More than just a professional boost, Napier feels even more indebted to the Sabans from a personal standpoint.
“People don’t see some of the things that he does for you behind the scenes, both he and Miss Terry,” Napier said. “My wife went through some things medically, and they were there for us. They take care of their people. My dad got diagnosed with ALS my first year as a receivers coach. I wasn’t worth a wood nickel that year, and Coach Saban helped me navigate that when I probably didn’t do my job to the best of my ability. But he had a pulse for how challenging that was for me and guided me through it.”
TEXAS COACH STEVE Sarkisian has said several times that Saban saved his career when he brought Sarkisian on as an analyst in 2016 after alcohol issues led to his firing at USC.
“He believed in me at a time when I was having a hard time even getting an interview,” Sarkisian said.
Following Texas’ 34-24 victory over Alabama last season in Tuscaloosa, Sarkisian made sure Saban knew how much he meant to him.
“None of this would’ve been possible without you,” Sarkisian told Saban at midfield.
One of only three former assistants to beat Saban, along with Smart and Fisher, Sarkisian thought about that moment at Bryant-Denny Stadium when he heard Saban was retiring.
“As great as it was for us to go and get that win, that would never have been possible without Nick Saban, ironically,” Sarkisian said. “To think that was where I kind of resurrected my career, in that stadium with him, to have that moment — which was our biggest moment in three years here — was something I won’t forget. I’m forever grateful that he and Miss Terry were both there for me at a tough time in my life.”
‘There’s no turning back’: Decisive calls, memorable moments
One of Saban’s most memorable in-game decisions was making the switch from Jalen Hurts, who was 25-2 as Alabama’s starting quarterback, to true freshman Tua Tagovailoa at halftime of the Crimson Tide’s come-from-behind 26-23 win over Georgia to capture the 2017 national championship. Tagovailoa’s 41-yard touchdown pass to DeVonta Smith in overtime won the title for the Tide.
Alabama trailed 13-0 at the half and hadn’t been able to generate any offense. A week earlier, the Tide scored only two offensive touchdowns in a semifinal win over Clemson.
“We come into the locker room at halftime of that Georgia game, and the first question Nick has is, ‘What the hell is going on? What do we need to do to get the offense going?'” Locksley said.
Locksley was then the receivers coach and co-offensive coordinator. His younger receivers were already restless about not being more involved in the passing game. Locksley looked around the locker room and spoke up.
“‘Coach, if you’re asking my opinion and you want to get the offense going, let’s give Tua a shot,'” Locksley recalled saying. “I said, ‘I’ll talk to Jalen, and if it doesn’t work, we can always go back to Jalen.'”
Any critical decision was always Saban’s call, but he wanted input from his coaches, especially in tough situations, and that’s something else that set him apart, according to Locksley.
“There was never a flinch whatsoever on his part to make that move,” Locksley said. “But you’ve also got to remember that he’s the same guy that made a decision a year before when we lost the championship to go with a new playcaller [Sarkisian] for the championship game. That’s the thing about Coach. He listens to people, but he’s the one that makes the decision. And when he does, there’s no turning back.”
Locksley said he’s not sure Saban could have managed the whole Hurts-Tagovailoa situation any better. Tagovailoa had taken most of the first-team reps prior to the semifinal against Clemson after Hurts got the flu.
“I’m not sure the ball hit the ground in any of those practices,” Locksley said. “Tua was unbelievable.”
But when Tagovailoa didn’t start against Clemson, Locksley said Tagovailoa was boiling mad and ready to transfer. It was a similar story with Hurts after he was benched in the national title game. After all, he had lost only two games as a starter — and one of those was the national championship game against Clemson the year before, when his 30-yard touchdown run gave Alabama the lead with a little more than two minutes remaining.
“It’s never easy to juggle those types of things. Only one quarterback can play, but Coach does a great job of managing it and allowing the people who are closest to the players to be a big part of it,” Locksley said. “And then in 2018, it was almost a reversal. Jalen comes in and saves us in the SEC championship game. He was ready. Those things don’t happen by accident. The tone is set at the top.”
CRISTOBAL ARRIVED AT Alabama in 2013, the year after the Crimson Tide lost to Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa. The pregame meeting the next year in College Station remains etched in Cristobal’s mind.
“Every detail in those meetings is covered, from where the sun rises and sets, does it affect the returners, the referees, what they are prone to calling, all that stuff,” Cristobal said.
The Tide had heard all offseason that they were going to have to go play at Kyle Field, and that Manziel, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, was going to light them up again. Cristobal said the mood in the locker room was uptight, and Saban sensed it right away.
“Hey man, ain’t no one going to die today, you know?” Saban insisted. “Get your asses focused and enthused about this opportunity we have today. Ain’t no one going to die.”
Cristobal said the tension was immediately relieved.
“We got back to business,” Cristobal said. “He had a knack for doing stuff that made everybody in the organization better.”
Alabama beat Texas A&M 49-42 in one of the best college football games of the year.
THE WEEK BEFORE the 2016 national championship game, Saban abruptly cut ties with Kiffin, who was his offensive coordinator and playcaller for Alabama’s semifinal win over Washington. Saban had Sarkisian, then an offensive analyst, call plays for the title game against Clemson; the Tigers would beat the Tide 35-31 on a last-second touchdown. Kiffin had been named Florida Atlantic’s coach a few weeks earlier, and Saban didn’t feel Kiffin was fully invested in his duties at Alabama.
After Saban retired, Kiffin said he reached out to reiterate what he has told Saban almost every time he has seen him since that parting.
“I just told him that I appreciated him so much, and as I look back now at any issues we had between us, they were 100 percent my fault,” Kiffin said. “I didn’t see it at the time, but I see it now.
“It’s a lot like being a parent. You don’t always understand when you’re a kid and your parents are telling you things, but then you get older and have your own kids, and you’re like, ‘OK, now I get it.'”
Kiffin said he apologized for being so difficult, but that Saban was very gracious and talked about what a good run they had together — three SEC championships, three College Football Playoff appearances, one national title and a 40-3 record, including a 26-game winning streak to end their three years together.
“I would have really struggled with myself as an assistant coach at that stage, and I told Coach that,” Kiffin said. “Now I’m the head coach, and I see that. Yes, I would have liked me on game day because there was a lot of success and all the plays that we created. All that stuff would have been great, but always questioning things, wanting to know why and arguing back. … I don’t think I would have put up with it as a head coach.”
SABAN AND FISHER were raised a “few hollers over,” as Jimbo would say, in West Virginia, but they were never what you would call close friends after their days of working together at LSU from 2000 to 2004. Their relationship seemingly went up in flames prior to the 2022 season.
You’ve heard this part before. Saban, who once called Fisher the best offensive coordinator he ever had at the college or pro level, said at a May 18, 2022, fundraiser that Texas A&M “bought” all its players in the previous signing class with name, image and likeness deals. An enraged Fisher, then the Aggies’ coach, fired back the next day in a hastily called news conference. He called Saban a “narcissist” and described Saban’s comments as “despicable.” Saban later apologized and said he shouldn’t have singled out specific schools, but he didn’t back down on his stance that NIL was being used as a guise for pay-for-play.
Fisher said he hasn’t talked to Saban since his retirement, but is glad to see his old boss walking away when he’s young and healthy enough to do some of the other things he wants.
“I know everybody thinks we’re enemies because I said what I said, but I truly believe Nick’s a good guy and a genuine guy,” said Fisher, who was fired toward the end of the 2023 season at Texas A&M. “Now, Nick likes to win and will do what he needs to do to win. We all will. Maybe it’s the West Virginia hillbilly in us. We like to hit you and scratch you. But at the end of the day, we give a s—. That’s the way we grew up.
“I remember when we got to LSU, Nick was sort of an outsider, hadn’t coached in the SEC and really hadn’t won crazily. But none of that fazed him. You could see his vision right away, his tenacity to do it the way he knew it had to be done despite what anybody else thought. There was nothing outside his program that affected him.
“A lot of it is that we’re the same guy, Nick and me, and are point-blank about what’s on our minds.”
‘If I want to call a timeout, I’ll call a damn timeout’
Throughout his coaching career, Saban loved organizing pickup 3-on-3 basketball games with his coaches at lunchtime. Only in the offseason, mind you.
The games at times were intense, and legend has it that Saban picked the teams and occasionally picked who would guard him. At Alabama, that guy often was current Arkansas State athletic director Jeff Purinton, who was then one of Saban’s most trusted confidants as associate athletic director for football communications.
“My first years with him, I loved it and looked forward to it. My last six years, I dreaded it,” Smart said with a laugh.
Smart participated in those games at all three of his coaching stops with Saban.
“We played outside when we were with the Miami Dolphins, some great games,” said Smart, noting that current South Carolina receivers coach James Coley and former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett were part of the games.
One of the funnier stories, and Smart says Coley tells it best, was when Saban was at LSU. They went from 4-on-4 to 3-on-3, making it a faster-paced game. Coley said Saban, in his mid-50s at the time, became winded and called timeout after a loose ball. But Stan Hixon, who was on Saban’s team, was the only one who heard Saban call timeout. Derek Dooley was on the opposite team and thought Hixon had called the timeout. Dooley yelled, “There’s no timeouts out here.”
Dooley had no idea the call came from Saban, and Saban was none too pleased.
“Hey Derek, I’m 50 years old, and I’m about to have a heart attack. If I want to call a timeout, I’ll call a damn timeout,” Saban huffed.
1:55
Nick Saban on where it all began for him as a coach
In 2018, Nick Saban told the story of the exact moment he started thinking like a coach.
Fisher said he and Saban were always on the same team during their LSU years. They would play on the practice court underneath the Pete Maravich Assembly Center.
“We’d always go to 11. Nick was the point guard, and I was the shooting guard,” said Fisher, who was Saban’s offensive coordinator at the time. “Our third player would vary. I mean, we’d go at it too. I wasn’t going to lose, and neither was Nick. I’d score about nine of our points, and he’d score the other two. He could handle the ball and shoot, but I could shoot from long range. It was some serious basketball.”
Former Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt, who worked two stints under Saban at Alabama, joked that he was banged up all the time because he was constantly diving for loose balls to impress Saban, especially those first few years when Pruitt was a younger, off-field staff member.
Saban continued with his lunchtime games until spring 2019 before having hip replacement surgery. Those early years at Alabama were the best, according to Smart.
The Alabama assistants had an hour for lunch, but they were required by Saban to make recruiting calls during the break.
“So the coaches that he demanded play basketball over that lunch hour would show up across the street at Coleman Coliseum with their phones in their hands making recruiting calls,” Smart said. “Nick would jog down the steps, and we all made sure he saw us making calls before the games started.”
Kiffin doesn’t have any hoops stories because he strategically made it a point not to participate.
“I knew better,” Kiffin said. “When I got there, they told me all about the games and how Coach picks the teams and that if you cover him, you can’t foul him and probably should let him score some. And I’m like, ‘Wrong dude. That ain’t happening. I’ll just go for a jog or something.’
“I knew if I went over there, it probably wasn’t going to go well. So I never once went and played basketball.”
‘Nobody does that’: What makes Saban unique
Smart’s Bulldogs have won two of the past three national championships, and of Saban’s former assistants, he is probably the most like his old boss. Both defensive masterminds, they were together for four of Saban’s six national titles at Alabama.
“His ability to manage and motivate people was unlike anything I’ve seen, and I mean everybody in the organization,” said Smart, who beat Saban to capture the 2021 national championship but was winless in their other five meetings as a head coach.
“He leads by example. Nobody outworks Nick. He doesn’t hold you to a different standard than he holds himself. He’s smart and that’s one thing, but his message always has a purpose. Everything’s calculated, and he just does it better than everybody else.”
Saban was 31-3 against his former assistants, with one of those losses coming this past season to Sarkisian, who guided the Longhorns to their first CFP appearance and their first 12-win season since 2009. Sarkisian, the offensive coordinator on Alabama’s 2020 national championship team, marvels at Saban’s run, especially considering that in five of the 10 years prior to his arrival, the Tide failed to produce a winning season.
“I mean, from when he took [Alabama] over in 2007 and the state of the program then to what he was able to do, even until the last snap of his career, is unbelievable,” Sarkisian said. “He instilled in everybody every day that they were competing to be a national champion. He set a standard and a bar for excellence in our sport that we’re all striving to get to.”
Beyond the wins, Saban’s ability to lead resonates with Cristobal.
“He’s the epitome of an elite CEO, and one of the greatest things you learn from him is that he has a relentless attack on human nature because his belief in upholding the standards of an organization is as prioritized as it can be,” Cristobal said. “He made it very clear to us that once you don’t hold people to that elite standard, an entire organization could fall to pieces. He made sure he kept us on edge, and he challenged us all the time.”
Saban never deviated from his core beliefs, but he was continuously self-scouting, tinkering and trying to gain an edge.
“I appreciated the level of detail, the competitive spirit, the constant search for improvement and the ability to be flexible and to always be evaluating things and trying to get better and staying ahead of the curve and thinking outside the box,” Napier said. “You don’t do what he’s done unless you’re just a little bit different.”
Dantonio, elected to the College Football Hall of Fame in January, coached defensive backs under Saban at Michigan State.
“He always talked about two things: consistency and performance,” Dantonio said. “He’s been consistent throughout, and he’s built something that lasts. That’s his legacy, and I think that’s what everybody wants to do. I can still hear Nick saying something that stayed with me throughout my coaching career: ‘If you’re not coaching it, you’re letting it happen.’ There’s nothing he didn’t coach.”
Saban produced 43 first-round NFL draft picks during his 17 seasons at Alabama, with more ahead in the upcoming draft.
“It’s easy to say they just had better players. They did. Really good players,” Sarkisian said. “It’s easy to say, man, he’s the greatest defensive mind. Yeah, he’s a great defensive mind. But his ability to adapt schematically, his ability to continue to bring in new coaches year after year on both sides of the ball, his ability to motivate the different teams, the different personalities and different quarterbacks that led to all those championships is what’s fascinating.”
At the end of the day, though, Saban never lost sight of the main ingredient in winning those championships.
“He always sort of laughs and smiles and says, ‘Hey, I can’t coach bad players, either,'” Dantonio said.
Locksley, who had been a head coach or coordinator for 15 years before he joined Saban in 2016 as an offensive analyst, said his three years at Alabama were “the equivalent of Muslims going to Mecca or Catholics going to the Vatican. … For me, it was like when a college professor takes a sabbatical. That’s how much I learned.”
He has been resolute in building his Maryland program with the same blueprint Saban used.
“I tell people all the time that I’ve got grandma’s famous chocolate chip cookie recipe from my time with him,” he said. “If the process tells you to put two cups of chocolate chips in there, why the hell are you going to put three? If it says three eggs, why would you put two? Everything fits and has a perfect place for how it fits.”
Even Kiffin, who is never at a loss for words, struggles to put Saban’s career in proper perspective.
“I always look at coaching, and a lot of times, somebody has a run when they hit it right with an elite quarterback who’s a top-10 pick and then they have drop-offs,” Kiffin said. “But there’s no one who’s done it like Coach has for the last 17 years and then LSU before that. He’s withstood all these changes over the years, coaching changes and the game changing, and just kept winning.
“I mean, nobody does that. It just doesn’t happen, and I’m not sure it ever will again.”
AVONDALE, Ariz. — Kyle Larson knew he wasn’t going to catch Denny Hamlin in the final laps on Sunday, not without the sort of help that only a caution flag can bring.
Larson got his lucky break.
Hamlin only got heartbreak.
Larson is now a two-time NASCAR champion after denying Hamlin what would have been his first career title when a late caution at Phoenix Raceway sent the championship-deciding finale into overtime.
Without that caution, which came with three laps to run, Hamlin had it locked up and was ready to finally shed the label of greatest NASCAR driver to never win a championship. But fellow title contender William Byron got a flat tire and hit the wall to bring out the caution, and a few minutes later, it was over.
“Just unbelievable,” Larson said. “I cannot believe it.”
Neither could Hamlin.
“I really don’t have much for emotion right now. Just numb about it ’cause just in shock,” Hamlin said after consoling his crying daughters on pit road. “We were 40 seconds away from a championship. This sport can drive you absolutely crazy because sometimes speed, talent, none of that matters.”
When the caution for Byron came out, Hamlin led the field down pit road and got four new tires on his Toyota; Larson only took two tires on his Chevrolet. It meant Larson was fifth for the two-lap sprint to the finish, with Hamlin back in 10th.
With so little time to run down Larson, Hamlin came up short with a sixth-place finish as Larson finished third. Ryan Blaney, who was eliminated from title contention last week, won the race.
“You do have to feel for that group and Denny. Doing a good job all day, it not playing out for him. But that is racing. It sucks sometimes,” Blaney said. “They can hang their head about it, but they should be very proud about the effort. They had the fastest race car here. Just one of those things where it doesn’t work out. Looked like it was going into his favor, unfortunately for him, it didn’t.”
It is the second championship for Larson, who won his first title in 2021 when he joined Hendrick Motorsports.
As Larson celebrated, Hamlin sat in his car motionless for several seconds, then wiped his face with a white towel, never showing any emotion.
Larson, who has been in a slump since his disastrous Memorial Day attempt to race both the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 on the same day, was also in shock.
“We didn’t lead a lap and won the championship,” Larson said. “We had an average car at best and had the right front [tire] go down, lost a lap and got the wave around, saved by the caution with the wave around. It’s just unbelievable. What a year by this motorsports team.”
When Hamlin finally got out of his car he embraced his crew members but it was a scene of disbelief among the Joe Gibbs Racing crowd. Team members were crying, some sitting in shock on the pavement; Gibbs himself stood silent, one hand on his hip and a look of disbelief on his face.
It is the sixth shot at a title to slip away from Hamlin in his 20 years driving for Gibbs. He led 208 of the 319 laps and started from the pole.
“Nothing I could do different. I mean, prepared as good as I could coming into the weekend and my team gave me a fantastic car,” Hamlin said. “Just didn’t work out. I was just praying ‘no caution’ and we had one there. What can you do? It’s just not meant to be.”
He said crew chief Chris Gayle made the correct call with four tires, but too many others took only two, which created too big of a gap for Hamlin to close on Larson in so little time.
The 44-year-old Virginia native had been extremely jinxed in five previous championship finales, with bad luck, bad strategy and bad cars breaking his heart in 2010, 2014, 2019, 2020 and 2021. Sunday was his first time eligible in the winner-take-all race in four seasons.
Hamlin was remarkably loose and calm all week, rented three houses in Scottsdale for 30 friends and family, won the pole and then dominated Sunday’s race.
He just didn’t close it out.
“Man, if you can’t win that one, I don’t know which one you can win,” Hamlin said.
Larson was OK during the race, but hasn’t won since early May, a slump that has now extended to 24 consecutive races.
Hamlin teammate Chase Briscoe finished 18th in his debut in the championship finale, while Larson teammate Byron was 33rd after his late issue. He felt awful for ruining Hamlin’s chance even though his Hendrick Motorsports teammate won the championship.
“I’m just super bummed that it was a caution obviously. I hate that. Hate it for Denny. I hate it for the 11 team,” Byron said. “I mean, Denny was on his way to it. I hate that. There’s a lot of respect there. I obviously do not want to cause a caution. If I had known what tire it was, known that a tire was going down before I got to the corner, I would have done something different.”
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
While there was stability at the very top of the college football hierarchy in Week 10 — with Ohio State and Indiana rolling to big wins — there were plenty of surprises and consequential results further down the pecking order.
The biggest shockwaves came in the ACC, where Georgia Tech suffered its first loss of the season, Miami lost for the second week in a row and Virginia emerged in sole possession of first place. If the Cavaliers can hold on and win the ACC championship, they would be a most unlikely participant in the College Football Playoff.
As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: North Texas to the playoffs? Sure, why not? After ending Navy’s undefeated season Saturday, the Mean Green are positioned as well as anyone else to win the American, which will likely result in a playoff spot. You can drum up a scenario where San Diego State gets picked from the Mountain West, but the American champion is in the driver’s seat. And picking from the league’s pool of options is tough: Navy, Memphis, North Texas, Tulane, South Florida and East Carolina all have just one conference loss. The Mean Green have been the most impressive over the past three weeks.
Georgia Tech’s loss to NC State means the ACC no longer has an undefeated team, which stands as another indicator the ACC will be a one-bid league. Is that team Virginia? The Cavaliers’ only loss of the season also came against NC State, but that was classified as a nonconference game, so they’re still undefeated in league play. Regardless, it’s hard to be optimistic about the chances any ACC team will win a first-round game.
Schlabach: It was another unpredictable Saturday in college football with three teams in the AP Top 10 falling. I’m sure we’ll see plenty of chaos over the final month of the regular season, too.
Vanderbilt’s dream season hit a road bump at Texas, as Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning threw for 328 yards with three touchdowns in a 34-31 victory. The Longhorns have won four in a row after most of us left them for dead. They’ll play at Georgia in two weeks, followed by home games against Arkansas and Texas A&M.
Georgia Tech suffered its first loss of the season in an ugly 48-36 defeat at NC State. The Wolfpack had 583 yards of offense, including 243 rushing, as Tech’s defense had no answers. The Yellow Jackets will play surging Pittsburgh and rival Georgia in their final two games, so they’ll have to get things fixed quickly.
Georgia Tech, Miami, Vanderbilt and Navy all fell out of my 12-team bracket. I replaced them with Texas Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia and Memphis.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 BYU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Half of this week’s projected quarterfinal field — Texas A&M, Alabama, Oregon and BYU — was off this weekend in what felt like a quiet one for college football. The only change for me here from last week is that Georgia Tech is gone, with BYU in its place. The Cougars travel to Texas Tech this week in what might be the most consequential conference game outside the SEC and Big Ten the rest of the way.
BYU is following a similar script to last season, when it started 8-0, only to lose twice late in the year and miss out on a trip to the Big 12 title game. Things are tight again in the Big 12, so this is as close as it gets to a must-win game for both teams.
Schlabach: My quarterfinal matchups largely remained unchanged from a week ago, although Texas Tech replaced Georgia Tech in one of the games.
The CFP selection committee members wouldn’t admit it, but hopefully they’ll tweak the final rankings to avoid the intraconference matchups in my bracket. There are all-SEC matchups in the Cotton Bowl and Sugar Bowl, and an all-Big Ten contest in the Orange Bowl.
Texas Tech and BYU are in the driver’s seat for a Big 12 title, and I’m not sure the unbeaten Cougars are getting enough love nationally. They’ve already beaten Utah and Iowa State, and they’ll have a chance to make an emphatic statement when they play the Red Raiders on Saturday.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP national championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: With Ohio State and Indiana both winning decisively, there is no reason to revisit the title game projection. They continue to look like the two best teams in college football and haven’t showed any signs of slowing down.
Schlabach: Ohio State and Indiana continued to roll this week. The Buckeyes got off to a slow start before dismantling Penn State 38-14. The Buckeyes will be heavy favorites in their next three games — a road trip to Purdue and home contests against UCLA and Rutgers — before closing the regular season at rival Michigan in the Big House on Nov. 29.
Indiana also got off to a slow start before routing Maryland 55-10 on the road. Indiana has won its past three games against Michigan State, UCLA and Maryland by a combined 120 points. It doesn’t figure to get much more difficult over the Hoosiers’ final three games against struggling Penn State (road), Wisconsin (home) and Purdue (road).
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. Delaware State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Old Dominion
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Central Michigan
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Marshall
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Florida State
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Temple vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Western Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Northwestern
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. Troy
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Iowa State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: SMU vs. Minnesota
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Washington State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. LSU
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Houston vs. Oklahoma
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Troy vs. UTSA
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Washington
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. California
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: TCU vs. Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: Miami vs. Washington
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Bill Connelly
Two top-10 teams fell on the road to unranked opponents. A third fell to a lower-ranked team. No. 5 Georgia flirted with disaster, as always, and just because nothing is allowed to make total sense in the ACC, No. 15 Virginia and No. 16 Louisville also thought hard about face-planting before rallying.
Week 10 didn’t give us quite as many absolute disasters as it could have, and the damage was mostly contained to the increasingly chaotic ACC. And with two-thirds of the 2025 college football season done, we now shift into Playoff Hyperdrive.
Let’s look back on Week 10 with help from the construct I used for the Week 10 preview: Playoff Tiers.
Updated playoff tiers
The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season come out Tuesday, and using a combination of the Allstate Playoff Predictor and odds driven by my SP+ rankings, we can pretty easily bunch teams into groups of playoff likelihood. The tiers didn’t change all that much this weekend, though conveniently, each team that lost fell into the tier below.
Tier 1
Indiana (9-0, 99.5% average playoff odds) — def. Maryland 55-10 Saturday
Ohio State (8-0, 99.3%) — def. Penn State 38-14
Texas A&M (8-0, 95.7%)
With A&M off and Indiana and Ohio State winning by a combined 93-24, nothing changed here. These are the three most likely teams to make the CFP, and while the playoff committee could overthink and try to talk itself into ranking Alabama ahead of A&M or something because of ranked wins, the Aggies deserve the edge to me, both because of their road win over Tier 3’s Notre Dame and the extremely important fact that they didn’t lose to a 4-4 Florida State team like the Tide did.
Tier 2
Ole Miss (8-1, 83.6%) — def. South Carolina 30-14
Oregon (7-1, 75.6%)
Alabama (7-1, 74.0%)
BYU (8-0, 69.3%)
Texas Tech (8-1, 68.5%) — def. Kansas State 43-20
Georgia (7-1, 54.1%) — def. Florida 24-20
With Georgia Tech’s loss to NC State on Saturday, the Yellow Jackets dropped from Tier 2 to Tier 3, but with a surprisingly comfortable road win over a smoking hot Kansas State, Texas Tech jumped from Tier 3 to 2. I’m curious how the CFP committee might view the Red Raiders, a team with eight wins by at least 23 points and a lone loss coming without starting quarterback Behren Morton. Their strength-of-schedule numbers aren’t very good, but they ace the eye test, and if “best” is supposed to matter over “most deserving,” well, they’re fourth in SP+.
Georgia, meanwhile, is uninterested in passing “eye tests.” The Bulldogs once again painted themselves into a corner, this time spotting rival Florida a 20-17 lead and letting them drive into field goal range midway through the fourth quarter. But they rallied once again, stuffing Jadan Baugh on fourth-and-1, immediately driving for a touchdown, then forcing a four-and-out and winning the game. They look impressive for about one quarter per game, but they’re 7-1 with a Tier 2 win over Ole Miss and a lone loss to Tier 2 Bama. The road still features games against Texas and Georgia Tech, however.
Tier 3
Notre Dame (6-2, 41.1%) — def. Boston College 25-10
Virginia (8-1, 37.6%) — def. California 31-21
Louisville (7-1, 37.1%) — def. Virginia Tech 28-16
Texas (7-2, 33.5%) — def. Vanderbilt 34-31
Georgia Tech (8-1, 30.2%) — lost to NC State 48-36
Tier 3 is evidently the transition tier. Of last week’s four Tier 3 teams, one moved up with a win (Texas Tech), and two moved down with losses (Miami, Vanderbilt). Meanwhile, it caught Georgia Tech on the way down and Texas on the way up. And with all the other chaos in the ACC, two one-loss teams that won as favorites Saturday (Virginia and Louisville) saw their conference title odds rise by solid amounts. They also moved up from Tier 4.
Tier 4
Oklahoma (7-2, 27.0%) — def. Tennessee 33-27
Vanderbilt (7-2, 26.8%) — lost to Texas 34-31
Utah (7-2, 24.2%) — def. Cincinnati 45-14
Miami (6-2, 17.9%) — lost to SMU 26-20
USC (6-2, 14.0%) — def. Nebraska 21-17
Washington (6-2, 13.6%)
Missouri (6-2, 10.7%)
Michigan (7-2, 10.5%) — def. Purdue 21-16
Pitt (7-2, 6.9%) — def. Stanford 35-20
Duke (5-3, 6.4%) — def. Clemson 46-45
Iowa (6-2, 6.0%)
SMU (6-3, 5.7%) — def. Miami 26-20
Oklahoma and Vanderbilt both have decent enough odds that I could have slipped them into Tier 3, but since they’ve both lost to Tier 3 Texas, and head-to-head matchups between two-loss SEC teams could matter a lot, we’ll go ahead and put them here. At this point, Tier 4 is a mix of two-loss Big Ten and SEC teams (OU, Vandy, USC, Washington, Mizzou, Michigan, Iowa), two-loss Big 12 and ACC teams that either have impressive wins (Miami) or are simply smoking hot (Utah, Pitt) and three-loss ACC teams that still have a puncher’s chance at the conference title (Duke, SMU).
Tier (Group of) 5
James Madison (7-1, 27.7%) — def. Texas State 52-20
North Texas (8-1, 26.4%) — def. Navy 31-17
Memphis (8-1, 15.9%) — def. Rice 38-14
USF (6-2, 13.9%)
San Diego State (7-1, 8.9%) — def. Wyoming 24-7
There’s still a scenario in which, say, SMU wins the ACC at 10-3 but ranks behind a pair of one-loss Group of 5 champions, and the G5 ends up with multiple bids. That said, one G5 bid is still far and away the most likely scenario, and that race remains awfully interesting. JMU impressed enough in San Marcos last Tuesday that the Dukes jumped from 50th to 36th in SP+. They aren’t going to finish with a great résumé — their most impressive performance was a loss to Louisville in which they were tied in the fourth quarter before a fumble recovery touchdown put them behind — but they look the part enough that they should feel good about their chances if they finish 12-1 to win the Sun Belt, and the American Conference champ is 11-2.
Still, it’s clear the American winner, whoever it ends up being, is most likely to score the bid even if JMU’s odds are better than any single team.
What Tuesday’s rankings should look like
For the past couple of years, I’ve been fiddling with what amounts to a BCS-ish formula, derived half from the AP poll and half from a combination of both computer power ratings (SP+ and FPI) and computer résumé ratings (Résumé SP+ and Strength of Record). With a few exceptions — Alabama over Florida State in 2023, SMU over Alabama in 2024 — it tends to adhere pretty closely to what the committee ends up deciding.
Tuesday’s rankings will be the first since the CFP committee began using “enhanced metrics to help evaluate schedule strength,” however. What does that mean in practice? I have no idea. So in anticipation of Tuesday’s release, let’s look at four rankings for the teams most likely to be ranked by the committee: 1) their AP poll ranking; 2) their ranking in this BCS-ish formula; 3) their Strength of Record ranking and 4) their Résumé SP+ ranking.
This obviously adheres pretty closely to the tiers above, but it gives us a good idea of what to look for Tuesday night. If the committee really is taking strength of schedule or strength of record further into account — and for the record, I really don’t think it needed to — then we might expect teams that are more well regarded by the computers to win some arguments. Texas A&M would definitely rank ahead of Alabama in this case, and BYU might rank higher as well. Also, two-loss Texas and Vanderbilt would likely trump one-loss Louisville and Georgia Tech.
All in all, I think the top 11 on Tuesday should end up looking almost identical to the AP poll, while the spots from No. 12 to No. 21 could end up in pretty much any order.
A hypothetical playoff simulation, because why not?
Based on where teams are most likely to rank this week (via the BCS-ish rankings above) and which teams are currently most likely to win their conferences (per SP+), here’s what I’m going to call Week 11’s playoff bracket.
9 Texas Tech at 8 BYU
Winner plays 1 Ohio State
12 North Texas at 5 Georgia
Winner plays 4 Alabama
11 Louisville at 6 Oregon
Winner plays 3 Texas A&M
10 Notre Dame at 7 Ole Miss
Winner plays 2 Indiana
We’ll see a shakeup following Week 11’s Texas Tech-BYU battle in Lubbock, but for now, this gives us Notre Dame’s first-ever trip to Oxford, a potential playoff rematch between Indiana and Notre Dame in the quarterfinals and another Alabama-Georgia playoff game (this time in the quarterfinals). Based on current SP+ rankings, it would also give us these national title odds based on 10,000 simulations:
Hypothetical title odds based on the above bracket:
1-seed Ohio State 30.6%
2-seed Indiana 28.2%
6-seed Oregon 12.4%
3-seed Texas A&M 7.4%
4-seed Alabama 6.8%
9-seed Texas Tech 5.6%
5-seed Georgia 3.0%
10-seed Notre Dame 2.4%
7-seed Ole Miss 1.7%
8-seed BYU 1.1%
11-seed Louisville 0.4%
12-seed North Texas 0.2%
And because odds alone aren’t very satisfying, I grabbed a random simulation from the batch of 10,000. Here’s what’s officially going to happen this postseason. You can stop watching now.
(Please don’t stop watching.)
FIRST ROUND
Texas Tech over BYU in Provo
Georgia over North Texas in Athens
Oregon over Louisville in Eugene
Notre Dame over Ole Miss in Oxford
QUARTERFINALS
Rose Bowl: Texas Tech over Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama over Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M over Oregon
Orange Bowl: Indiana over Notre Dame
SEMIFINALS
Peach Bowl: Alabama over Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl: Indiana over Texas A&M
FINALS
Indiana over Alabama in Miami
If you Google Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, as he told you to a couple of years ago, it might soon tell you that he’s a national title-winning head coach.
5 other random thoughts from Week 10
Damn, Mario. By Mario Cristobal’s standards, his late-game management against SMU wasn’t a crime against humanity or anything, but after SMU tied the game with 25 seconds left, Miami got the ball back with a timeout in hand and a quarterback Cristobal paid loads of money for … and the Hurricanes kneeled out the clock to go to overtime. Granted, Carson Beck’s dreadful overtime interception, which set up SMU’s winning touchdown, certainly didn’t help his cause, but it doesn’t matter how much money you shell out if you’re still going to play by “Three things can happen when you pass, and two are bad” rules in the 2020s.
But since Cristobal took over at Miami in 2022, his Hurricanes have lost five games as double-digit favorites; only Alabama can match that total, and (A) Bama has been a double-digit favorite 50% more often and (B) three of the Tide’s five such losses came in a small cluster of games last season. Cristobal has lost at least one such game each year that he’s been in charge. Death, taxes and Miami suffering a catastrophic loss it should have put away.
Holy (whistle) smokes (whistle), Arkansas (whistle). Generally speaking, penalties and penalty yards don’t correlate to wins and losses as much as you might think. Committing a lot of penalties can often signify that you’re properly pushing the limits from an aggressiveness standpoint, and of the 66 teams to have suffered more than 100 penalty yards in a game this season, 38 ended up winning the game.
It’s nice to know there are limits, however. Arkansas committed 18 penalties for 193 yards against Mississippi State on Saturday, the third most for any FBS team in any game over the last 10 seasons. Only Kansas (216 yards in a win over UNLV in 2023) and Northern Illinois (194 in a win over Eastern Illinois in 2017) can top that number. But while those teams still managed to win, Arkansas’ discipline ran out late. Mississippi State scored 17 points in the game’s final 11 minutes to overcome a 14-point deficit and win 38-35. If Sam Pittman hadn’t already been fired, he probably would be now. (And it probably goes without saying that interim coach Bobby Petrino hasn’t shined enough to justify hiring him full time, though I’m sure you can still find an Arkansas booster advocating for it.)
So many close SEC games. We can question whether the SEC has a team the caliber of Ohio State or Indiana this season, but we cannot question its commitment to competitiveness. The league featured six games Saturday, five were decided by one score — including both of its ranked-versus-ranked encounters — and the sixth was within one score with 12 minutes left. For the season, the league has had 43 conference games to date, with 26 decided by one touchdown or less. It’s been close enough overall that Arkansas somehow (A) ranks first in the league in points per drive in conference play and (B) is 0-5 in conference play.
Close games will define the rest of November, too. Texas A&M (5-0 in SEC play) has two road games with a projected margin of less than two points, and despite being pretty close to the finish line the Aggies have higher odds of losing two or more in November (27%) than reaching 12-0 (25%).
Alabama (5-0) has three conference games remaining, and all three are projected within single digits, two within one score. SP+ gives the Tide only a 25% chance of winning its four remaining games, with 26% odds of losing at least twice.
Georgia’s odds, meanwhile, are almost identical — the Bulldogs (5-1) have two projected one-score SEC games remaining (at Mississippi State, Texas), plus a one-score visit to Georgia Tech. The result: a 25% chance of winning out and a 30% chance of losing at least twice.
Texas (4-1) actually looked the part for most of Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt, but the Longhorns are projected underdogs in two of three remaining games (at Georgia, Texas A&M), and Arkansas is not a gimme. Odds of winning out: 15%.
Ole Miss (5-1) has the most navigable path of any major conference contender, with only Florida and Mississippi State remaining in SEC play. Odds of winning out: 54%. Then again, the Rebels lost to Florida last year, and the Egg Bowl lives for nonsense.
Colorado looks done done. Over its last two games against Utah and Arizona, Colorado was projected to lose by a combined 23.1 points. The Buffaloes instead lost by 81. Last week’s 53-7 loss to Utah was almost understandable in retrospect (the Utes just walloped Cincinnati, too), but they were equally moribund in Saturday evening’s home loss to Arizona. And based on a weighted average of recent performances (where the most recent game carries more weight), they are officially the team that is underachieving the most against current SP+ projections.
There are plenty of other teams staggering and/or falling at the moment – Syracuse, Penn State, Louisiana-Monroe, Delaware, Maryland, Texas State, Bowling Green – but CU leads the pack. And if the Buffs can’t beat West Virginia in Morgantown this coming weekend, a 3-9 finish begins to look awfully likely. Would that increase the odds of Deion Sanders stepping down at the end of the season?
DeSean Jackson was a spectacular hire. Remember in the offseason, when Norfolk State (Michael Vick) and Delaware State (DeSean Jackson) went the Deion Sanders/Eddie George route and hired celebrated former players as their head coaches? Vick was the bigger headline-grabber – he’s Michael Vick, after all – and he has struggled in year one, as you might expect from a first-time head coach. Norfolk State went 4-8 and finished 101st in FCS SP+ last season; the Spartans are just 1-8 and 115th this season. They have a couple of semi-winnable games left against Morgan State and Howard (they will likely get drubbed by N.C. Central this coming week), but it’s been a year of growing pains.
For Jackson and his Hornets, however, it’s been the exact opposite story. DSU went 1-11 and finished 123rd in SP+ last season, and they haven’t finished higher than 5-6 or 83rd over the past decade. Last Thursday’s win over Vick’s NSU, however, brought them to 6-3 and 54th overall. They’ve already upset N.C. Central, and if they can win a tossup game at home against S.C. State in Week 13, they’ll win their first MEAC title since 2007 and score their first Celebration Bowl bid. It’s looking like Jackson was one of the best hires of last offseason’s coaching carousel.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings are updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Fresno State: up 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 93rd to 78th)
East Carolina: up 3.4 points (from 61st to 48th)
Florida State: up 3.3 points (from 34th to 24th)
Louisiana Tech: up 3.3 points (from 76th to 67th)
Western Kentucky: up 3.1 points (from 88th to 72nd)
Buffalo: up 2.9 points (from 99th to 87th)
James Madison: up 2.8 points (from 50th to 36th)
Arizona: up 2.8 points (from 43rd to 31st)
UTSA: up 2.7 points (from 70th to 65th)
North Carolina: up 2.5 points (from 98th to 89th)
The ACC’s oddities didn’t stop at the games involving ranked teams. Duke’s win over Clemson was the most statistically unlikely result of the week — Duke somehow won despite a mammoth efficiency disadvantage (success rate: Clemson 58.3%, Duke 37.5%) — and in Tallahassee, Florida State somehow transferred all of its bad vibes to its opponent. Wake Forest collapsed under the weight of its mistakes and the Seminoles’ sudden excellence, and the teams basically traded seven points: FSU moved up 3.3 and, as you’ll see below, Wake moved down 3.7.
Meanwhile, this is the faintest of praise, but since bottoming out at 103rd in SP+ three weeks ago, North Carolina has rallied to 89th, suffering a pair of gut-wrenching losses and finally getting off the schneid with a thumping of quarterback-less Syracuse. The Tar Heels will have to pull at least a pair of upsets to have any hope of bowling, but improvement can be encouraging in and of itself.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Wake Forest: down 3.7 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 56th to 68th)
Cincinnati: down 3.5 points (from 23rd to 32nd)
Maryland: down 3.3 points (from 37th to 51st)
Georgia Tech: down 3.2 points (from 25th to 34th)
Boise State: down 3.0 points (from 47th to 55th)
Colorado: down 3.0 points (from 68th to 82nd)
UCF: down 2.9 points (from 51st to 56th)
Rutgers: down 2.5 points (from 63rd to 69th)
Sam Houston: down 2.4 points (no change from 135th)
South Carolina: down 2.4 points (from 54th to 61st)
Georgia Tech entered Week 10 as the lowest-ranked unbeaten power-conference team by a comfortable margin. After getting pushed around by NC State, the Yellow Jackets are lodged between 4-5 Auburn and James Madison in SP+.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Jeff Sims, Arizona State (13-for-24 passing for 177 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 228 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Iowa State).
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (20-for-23 passing for 316 yards and 4 touchdowns against Penn State).
3. CJ Bailey, NC State (24-for-32 passing for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 41 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Georgia Tech).
4. Jordan Marshall, Michigan (25 carries for 185 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 25 receiving yards against Purdue).
5. Owen McCown, UTSA (31-for-33 passing for 370 yards and 4 touchdowns against Tulane).
6. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (17 carries for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 30 receiving yards against Boston College).
7. Arch Manning, Texas (25-for-33 passing for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns against Vanderbilt).
8. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (25-for-35 passing for 408 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 113 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against NC State).
9. Darian Mensah, Duke (27-for-41 passing for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns against Clemson).
10. Melkart Abou Jaoude, North Carolina (6 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble against Syracuse).
Jeff Sims is the journeyman prototype for the transfer portal era. He has started 28 career games at three schools (Georgia Tech, Nebraska and Arizona State), and in those, he has produced some duds — 10 games with a Total QBR under 30.0, three under 10.0. But he has also thrown for more than 250 yards five times and rushed for 100 or more yards (not including sacks) seven times. And on Saturday in Ames, Iowa, he painted a Sims-ian masterpiece, throwing the ball reasonably well but ripping off an 88-yard touchdown run in the third quarter and nearly doubling his previous career high in rushing.
Sims is quite obviously not a Heisman contender, but one of the reasons I love this Heisman of the Week approach is that we can celebrate when guys like Sims do something beautiful. He even topped nearly perfect performances from Julian Sayin and Owen McCown and a gutsy, hobbled game from CJ Bailey.
Honorable mention:
• Luke Altmyer, Illinois (19-for-31 passing for 235 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 95 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Rutgers).
• Alonza Barnett III, James Madison (12-for-18 passing for 264 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 102 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Texas State).
• Tommy Castellanos, Florida State (12-for-16 passing for 271 yards and a touchdown, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Wake Forest).
• Evan Dickens, Liberty (22 carries for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns against Delaware).
• Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (33 carries for 197 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 9 receiving yards against Navy).
• Kevin Jennings, SMU (29-for-44 passing for 365 yards and a touchdown, plus a rushing touchdown against Miami).
• Jayden Scott, NC State (24 carries for 196 yards and a touchdown, plus 11 receiving yards against Georgia Tech).
• Danny Scudero, San Jose State (7 catches for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns against Hawai’i).
Through 10 weeks, here are your points leaders. I’ve bolded the guys who are also in the top 12 in the current Heisman betting odds.
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25)
3T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (25)
5. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21)
6T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
6T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
8. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10T. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (13)
10T. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (13)
We might be approaching a “Winner takes the No. 1 seed, winning QB takes the Heisman” game between Sayin’s Ohio State — the current Heisman betting favorite, per ESPN BET — and Mendoza’s Indiana in the Big Ten championship game in four weeks. Simpson, Chambliss and Stockton still have clear paths to impress, however, and with Love shifting into fifth gear over the past two games (a combined 41 carries for 364 yards) he might catch voters’ eyes if he keeps ripping off 94-yard touchdown runs.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1 and 2. SMU 26, No. 10 Miami 20 (OT) and Duke 46, Clemson 45. Obviously, Miami was the main character in Saturday’s loss, but what a performance by SMU. Kevin Jennings nearly landed on the Heisman of the Week list with 365 yards, a TD pass and a TD run, and the Mustangs’ defense, much improved of late, allowed just one gain of more than 25 yards, forced Miami to go the length of the field and pounced on mistakes. A great performance in a frustrating season.
Meanwhile, because Manny Diaz is a soccer fan, I can confidently say he’ll know what I mean when I say Duke pulled an absolute smash-and-grab in Death Valley, overcoming a massive efficiency disadvantage with a kick return score and not only a 5-for-5 performance on fourth down but 29 points scored after a fourth-down conversion. The Blue Devils remain in the ACC title race, and Clemson has only about a 39% chance of bowling, per SP+.
3. Division II: No. 7 CSU-Pueblo 24, No. 6 Western Colorado 21. I love it when one of the Smaller-School Showcase games in my Friday preview lives up to its billing. Unbeaten WCU bolted to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, but CSU-Pueblo had tied it by the end of the third quarter, with help from an 88-yard Roman Fuller-to-Marcellus Honeycutt Jr. touchdown pass. In the end, the Thunderwolves won with special teams: First, Jusiah Sampleton blocked a 47-yard field goal attempt with 4:01 left; then, after a 20-yard pass on third-and-16, Jackson Smith knocked in a 32-yarder as time expired.
4. FCS: No. 25 Abilene Christian 31, No. 2 Tarleton State 28. Tarleton State was the best FCS team not named North Dakota State heading into the weekend, and after entering the fourth quarter down 28-10, the Texans rallied to tie it with 56 seconds left. But a 38-yard pass from Stone Earle to Bryan Henry set up Brandon Perez‘s 47-yard buzzer-beater. TSU is unbeaten no more.
5. No. 5 Georgia 24, Florida 20. This game would rank higher if Georgia hadn’t been involved, but the Bulldogs have pulled the football version of the “Call the ambulance … but not for me” meme too many times, falling behind and then winning with perfect late execution. Regardless, it was a fun, tense way to spend an afternoon even if I didn’t doubt the outcome.
6 and 7. FCS: Idaho 35, Northern Arizona 32 (OT) (Friday) and Idaho State 38, No. 6 UC Davis 36. Drama in the Big Sky! On Friday night in Flagstaff, Arizona, Idaho watched a 26-7 lead turn into a 29-26 fourth-quarter deficit, but Owen Adams nailed a 42-yard field goal at the buzzer, and after forcing an overtime field goal, the Vandals walked it off with a short Hayden Kincheloe touchdown.
On Saturday in Davis, California, Idaho State, which has felt pretty close to an upset win all season, got one thanks to a 219-yard rushing performance from Dason Brooks and a 50-yard, final-minute field goal from Trajan Sinatra, the best-named kicker this side of Florida’s Trey Smack.
0:26
Trajan Sinatra makes 50-yard field goal
Trajan Sinatra makes 50-yard field goal
8. Mississippi State 38, Arkansas 35. After heartbreaking losses to Texas and Florida extended MSU’s SEC losing streak to 16 games (and more than two calendar years), it would take something special to end the streak. Like a game-ending 17-0 run, 193 penalty yards from Arkansas and a monstrous 18-yard catch and touchdown run from Anthony Evans III.
9. New Mexico 40, UNLV 35. If you watched this one as I advised, you were rewarded. New Mexico played catch-and-release, losing leads of 21-0 and 34-21, but with the game on the line, the Lobos executed a perfect, eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, taking the lead on a 13-yard D.J. McKinney run, then making two late stops to move to 6-2 and secure bowl eligibility. It’s hard to say enough about the job Jason Eck has done there in Year 1.
10. Division II: West Texas A&M 53, Texas A&M-Kingsville 48. There should always be room for a nutty track meet on this list, and if you missed the first eight minutes of this one, you missed (1) a 74-yard return on the opening kickoff, (2) a 26-yard touchdown on the first offensive play, (3) a sack-and-strip fumble, (4) a 99-yard kick return, (5) two turnovers on downs and (6) a 43-yard touchdown pass. West Texas A&M took a 22-6 lead from all of that, Kingsville responded with a 22-3 run to charge ahead, and we got six more lead changes from there. Goodness.
11. NAIA: No. 14 Indiana Wesleyan 56, Taylor 48.
12. No. 20 Texas 34, No. 9 Vanderbilt 31.
13. No. 18 Oklahoma 33, No. 14 Tennessee 27.
14. Oregon State 10, Washington State 7.
15. FCS: Central Connecticut 10, Long Island 7.
16. NAIA: Cumberland 40, Cumberlands 37.
17. Minnesota 23, Michigan State 20 (OT).
19. Division II: Chowan 34, Erskine 30.
20. Division III: Wesleyan 34, Williams 28 (OT).
The midweek playlist
Here’s your quick reminder that the CFP rankings are only the second-biggest landmark of the coming week. That’s right: IT’S MIDWEEK MACTION TIME. And we start with a doozy.
Miami (Ohio) at Ohio (Tuesday, 7 p.m., ESPN2). Miami has won five straight since an 0-3 start, and Ohio, the defending champ, has won four of five. The winner of this one will be your odds-on MAC favorite.
UTSA at USF (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN). USF needs to win out to keep AAC title (and playoff) hopes alive, and UTSA is coming off by far its best performance of the season.
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