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If you were looking for pre-election fireworks in this budget, look away now.

There was neither soaring rhetoric to win the hearts and minds of the nation nor eye-catching policies to back it up.

Jeremy Hunt was true to himself, choosing fiscal responsibility over political excitement.

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The shadow of Liz Truss’s mini-budget still looms large. Mr Hunt was taking no risks with the public finances in a budget that was far smaller in tax cuts and policy decisions than the autumn statement.

Normally, when insiders tell you that the chancellor is limited in what he can do – in the context of the economic backdrop and that this budget will be “a proof point” that the prime minister is delivering on his plan, rather than a “poll gamechanger”, a few months from an election – you take it with a pinch of salt.

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I wasn’t the only one, with senior Tories telling me they were still expecting more than the two percentage point cut to national insurance on the day.

When the chancellor didn’t offer up more, the verdict from some senior Tories was swift: “Terrible,” texted one former cabinet minister, “this won’t shift the needle”. Another told me that this budget would make “zero difference” and MPs would be unhappy: “They were hoping for more.”

What this does tell us is that when Rishi Sunak said his “working assumption” was for an autumn election, he meant it: this was not a budget trying to set the political weather, rather it was aimed at keeping a steady ship.

“Safety first,” is how one former Treasury insider described it, pointing out that the chancellor could have been more aggressive on tax cuts if he had decided to cut back on future spending commitments.

Ahead of the budget there had been lots of chatter that the chancellor was going to shave 0.25 percentage points off departmental spending plans after 2025 to raise another £5bn or so for tax cuts (this could have gone towards another 1 percentage point cut in national insurance) but decided not to do it.

Perhaps he was mindful of polling suggesting the public doesn’t much like the idea of cutting spending on public services, but his decision not to set this trap for an incoming Labour government has left some Tories pulling out their hair.

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One told me: “He could have created a wedge issue by cutting spending assumptions, by a quarter point or even a half point to then use on tax cuts.

“Labour would then have to back tax cuts or spending cuts, and perhaps we could have then pressed them on higher tax question.

“But we’ve done just enough on tax cuts for Labour to accept it. They didn’t create a wedge and MPs were looking for that from an electoral perspective.

“Maybe he had one eye on the Kwateng mini-budget, so didn’t want to take on more risk when it came to the fiscal forecasts.”

Politically too, the tax-cutting chancellor is still facing the double whammy of the overall tax burden of GDP still going up and heading for a 70-year-high by the end of the forecast period (2028-9), while the Institute of Fiscal Studies noted in its budget wash-up that average households would still be worse off going into the next general election than they were in 2019.

Jeremy Hunt and Rishi Sunak during Keir Starmer's Budget response
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Jeremy Hunt and Rishi Sunak during Keir Starmer’s Budget response

Safety first when you are 20 points ahead (Sir Keir Starmer) makes some sense, you don’t want to squander your lead.

But when you’re 20 points behind, your party are clamouring for you to go all out and try to close the gap.

The chancellor and his prime minister have clearly decided that the route to better polling is steady as she goes: a January national insurance cut, followed by another cut in April when energy bills should be coming down too.

The interest rates could be falling, alongside inflation in the summer.

The hope will be then that the feel-good factor is on the up, and the financial forecasts are improving to perhaps give the government the option of more tax cuts.

But right now, this budget doesn’t look like a moment for renewal. A March budget delivered, but still not a spring in the Tories’ step.

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Crypto execs fork over cash at Trump’s ballroom fundraiser: Report

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Crypto execs fork over cash at Trump’s ballroom fundraiser: Report

Crypto execs fork over cash at Trump’s ballroom fundraiser: Report

Representatives from Gemini, Ripple and Coinbase were reportedly in attendance at the fundraising dinner at the White House on Wednesday evening.

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Government delays Chinese super embassy decision again

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Government delays Chinese super embassy decision again

The government has again delayed making a decision on whether the Chinese super embassy can go ahead.

New Housing Secretary Steve Reed, who took over from Angela Rayner, was due to approve or deny Beijing’s application for a 600,000 sq ft embassy near the Tower of London next Tuesday.

However, the decision has been delayed to 10 December, “given the detailed nature” of the planning application, and the need to give parties sufficient opportunity to respond”, the prime minister’s spokesman confirmed.

He added that the new deadline is “not legally binding”.

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The spokesman denied the postponement was politically influenced and said it was “very much bound by the quasi-judicial” nature of planning law.

The delay comes the day after the government published witness statements it provided to prosecutors in the China spy trial that collapsed, prompting a blame game over whose fault it was that it dropped.

A decision had already been delayed from 9 September to 21 October after China submitted plans with large greyed-out sections, which said: “Redacted for security reasons.”

Explainer: Everything we know about China’s new ‘super embassy’

The basements in most of the buildings have been greyed out 'for security reasons'. Pic: David Chipperfield Architects
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The basements in most of the buildings have been greyed out ‘for security reasons’. Pic: David Chipperfield Architects

What are the concerns about the embassy?

It has become controversial due to concerns about it being turned into a Chinese spy hub for Europe and the fact highly sensitive financial cables run beneath it to the City of London and Canary Wharf.

The decision to delay again was made after the national security strategy committee wrote to Mr Reed on Monday saying that approving the embassy at its proposed site was “not in the UK’s long-term interest”.

Committee chairman Matt Western, a Labour MP, said in the letter the location presents “eavesdropping risks in peacetime and sabotage risks in a crisis”.

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Tower Hamlets Council rejected China’s initial planning application in 2022 to turn Royal Mint Court, where British coins were minted until 1975, into the largest embassy in Europe over security concerns and opposition from residents.

Beijing did not appeal the decision after making it clear it wanted Conservative ministers to give assurances they would back a resubmitted application – but the then-Tory government refused.

Eleven days after Labour won the election last July, the application was resubmitted in nearly exactly the same form, and was soon “called in” by Ms Rayner for central government to decide.

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Will China super embassy be built?

Conservative shadow housing secretary Sir James Cleverly accused the government of having “actively sought to silence the warnings” about the threats to national security from the embassy.

“It is essential the planning review has access to the full unredacted drawings for the Chinese embassy, and that the UK security agencies are able to submit evidence in private, using established processes,” he said.

“If Keir Starmer had any backbone, he would ensure his government threw out this sinister application – as Ireland and Australia did when faced with similar embassy development proposals from Russia.”

What has China said about the concerns?

In August, the Chinese embassy in the UK said the planning and design was “of high quality” and the application had “followed the customary diplomatic practices, as well as necessary protocol and procedures”.

There have been multiple protests against the embassy's development at the Royal Mint Court site. Pic: PA
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There have been multiple protests against the embassy’s development at the Royal Mint Court site. Pic: PA

The embassy added that it is “an international obligation of the host country to provide support and facilitation for the construction of diplomatic premises”.

And it reminded the UK that London wants to knock down and rebuild the British embassy in Beijing, which is in a very poor condition.

In September, a Chinese embassy spokesperson told Sky News that claims the new embassy poses a potential security risk to the UK are “completely groundless and malicious slander, and we firmly oppose it”.

They added: “Anti-China forces are using security risks as an excuse to interfere with the British government’s consideration over this planning application. This is a despicable move that is unpopular and will not succeed.”

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The three key questions about the China spy case that need to be answered

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The three key questions about the China spy case that need to be answered

The government has published witness statements submitted by a senior official connected to the collapse of a trial involving two men accused of spying for China.

Here are three big questions that flow from them:

1. Why weren’t these statements enough for the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) to carry on with the trial?

For this prosecution to go ahead, the CPS needed evidence that China was a “threat to national security”.

The deputy national security adviser Matthew Collins doesn’t explicitly use this form of words in his evidence. But he comes pretty close.

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In the February 2025 witness statement, he calls China “the biggest state-based threat to the UK’s economic security”.

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Six months later, he says China’s espionage operations “harm the interests and security of the UK”.

Yes, he does quote the language of the Tory government at the time of the alleged offences, naming China as an “epoch-defining and systemic challenge”.

But he also provides examples of malicious cyber activity and the targeting of individuals in government during the two-year period that the alleged Chinese spies are said to have been operating.

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Witness statements published in China spy trial

In short, you can see why some MPs and ex-security chiefs are wondering why this wasn’t enough.

Former MI6 head Sir Richard Dearlove told Sky News this morning that “it seems to be there was enough” and added that the CPS could have called other witnesses – such as sitting intelligence directors – to back up the claim that China was a threat.

Expect the current director of public prosecutions (DPP) Stephen Parkinson to be called before MPs to answer all these questions.

2. Why didn’t the government give the CPS the extra evidence it needed?

The DPP, Stephen Parkinson, spoke to senior MPs yesterday and apparently told them he had 95% of the evidence he needed to bring the case.

The government has said it’s for the DPP to explain what that extra 5% was.

He’s already said the missing link was that he needed evidence to show China was a “threat to national security”, and the government did not give him that.

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What does China spy row involve?

The newly published witness statements show they came close.

But if what was needed was that explicit form of words, why was the government reticent to jump through that hoop?

The defence from ministers is that the previous Conservative administration defined China as a “challenge”, rather than a “threat” (despite the numerous examples from the time of China being a threat).

The attack from the Tories is that Labour is seeking closer economic ties with China and so didn’t want to brand them an explicit threat.

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Is China an enemy to the UK?

3. Why do these statements contain current Labour policy?

Sir Keir Starmer says the key reason for the collapse of this trial is the position held by the previous Tory government on China.

But the witness statements from Matthew Collins do contain explicit references to current Labour policy. The most eye-catching is the final paragraph of the third witness statement provided by the Deputy National Security Adviser, where he quotes directly from Labour’s 2024 manifesto.

He writes: “It is important for me to emphasise… the government’s position is that we will co-operate where we can; compete where we need to; and challenge where we must, including on issues of national security.”

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In full: Starmer and Badenoch clash over China spy trial

Did these warmer words towards China influence the DPP’s decision to drop the case?

Why did Matthew Collins feel it so important to include this statement?

Was he simply covering his back by inserting the current government’s approach, or was he instructed to put this section in?

A complicated relationship

Everyone agrees that the UK-China relationship is a complicated one.

There is ample evidence to suggest that China poses a threat to the UK’s national security. But that doesn’t mean the government here shouldn’t try and work with the country economically and on issues like climate change.

It appears the multi-faceted nature of these links struggled to fit the legal specificity required to bring a successful prosecution.

But there are still plenty of questions about why the government and the CPS weren’t able or willing to do more to square these circles.

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