The shadow of Liz Truss’s mini-budget still looms large. Mr Hunt was taking no risks with the public finances in a budget that was far smaller in tax cuts and policy decisions than the autumn statement.
Normally, when insiders tell you that the chancellor is limited in what he can do – in the context of the economic backdrop and that this budget will be “a proof point” that the prime minister is delivering on his plan, rather than a “poll gamechanger”, a few months from an election – you take it with a pinch of salt.
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When the chancellor didn’t offer up more, the verdict from some senior Tories was swift: “Terrible,” texted one former cabinet minister, “this won’t shift the needle”. Another told me that this budget would make “zero difference” and MPs would be unhappy: “They were hoping for more.”
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What this does tell us is that when Rishi Sunak said his “working assumption” was for an autumn election, he meant it: this was not a budget trying to set the political weather, rather it was aimed at keeping a steady ship.
“Safety first,” is how one former Treasury insider described it, pointing out that the chancellor could have been more aggressive on tax cuts if he had decided to cut back on future spending commitments.
Ahead of the budget there had been lots of chatter that the chancellor was going to shave 0.25 percentage points off departmental spending plans after 2025 to raise another £5bn or so for tax cuts (this could have gone towards another 1 percentage point cut in national insurance) but decided not to do it.
Perhaps he was mindful of polling suggesting the public doesn’t much like the idea of cutting spending on public services, but his decision not to set this trap for an incoming Labour government has left some Tories pulling out their hair.
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One told me: “He could have created a wedge issue by cutting spending assumptions, by a quarter point or even a half point to then use on tax cuts.
“Labour would then have to back tax cuts or spending cuts, and perhaps we could have then pressed them on higher tax question.
“But we’ve done just enough on tax cuts for Labour to accept it. They didn’t create a wedge and MPs were looking for that from an electoral perspective.
“Maybe he had one eye on the Kwateng mini-budget, so didn’t want to take on more risk when it came to the fiscal forecasts.”
Politically too, the tax-cutting chancellor is still facing the double whammy of the overall tax burden of GDP still going up and heading for a 70-year-high by the end of the forecast period (2028-9), while the Institute of Fiscal Studies noted in its budget wash-up that average households would still be worse off going into the next general election than they were in 2019.
Safety first when you are 20 points ahead (Sir Keir Starmer) makes some sense, you don’t want to squander your lead.
But when you’re 20 points behind, your party are clamouring for you to go all out and try to close the gap.
The chancellor and his prime minister have clearly decided that the route to better polling is steady as she goes: a January national insurance cut, followed by another cut in April when energy bills should be coming down too.
The interest rates could be falling, alongside inflation in the summer.
The hope will be then that the feel-good factor is on the up, and the financial forecasts are improving to perhaps give the government the option of more tax cuts.
But right now, this budget doesn’t look like a moment for renewal. A March budget delivered, but still not a spring in the Tories’ step.
The health secretary has said that the cabinet is aware of the “pressure” on Chancellor Rachel Reeves amid volatile markets and a challenging broader economic picture – but appealed for the public to “give her time”.
Wes Streeting argued that the public “underestimates” the “amount of heavy-lifting” Ms Reeves has had to do and will have to continue to do, as he declared “total confidence” in her leadership in a staunch defence of her handling of the economy.
Separately, international development minister Anneliese Dodds, who attends cabinet, told Sky News that Ms Reeves has been “very clear about the long-term plan for our country” and she herself is “confident in that long-term plan”.
The comments from the two key ministers come after the past week saw a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.
Streeting has ‘total confidence in chancellor’s leadership’
Speaking at the Jewish Labour Movement’s annual conference in north London, the health secretary acknowledged the fierce competition among all government departments for any available public funding from the Treasury, and told party members that all ministers “have to make choices and trade-offs” in where funding goes.
Mr Streeting went on to say that the chancellor and her deputy, Darren Jones, have “the hardest job of all because they have to make those choices across every bit of government spending, and they have to think about what’s in the interests of our overall economy and how we get businesses growing”.
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1:14
Chancellor’s ‘pragmatic’ approach to China
He said: “I think people continue to underestimate both the amount of heavy lifting she has had to do in her first six months, and the amount of heavy lifting she will have to do in her next six months.
“And the cabinet doesn’t underestimate that – we understand the choices she has to make, the pressure she is under.”
As a result, cabinet ministers all “have a responsibility” to both “make tough choices and drive reform and value for money” within their departments, and also be “drivers of economic growth”.
“Nothing in the last six months has shaken my conviction that economic growth is the number one priority,” he said.
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Continuing his defence of the chancellor’s handling of the economy so far, Mr Streeting said she is “trying to break us out of what has been the status quo and the economic orthodoxy of more than a decade”.
“People need to give her time, and they need to not forget that, without [Sir Keir Starmer’s] leadership, certainly we wouldn’t have won the last general election.
“Without Rachel’s leadership, we wouldn’t have won the last general election either. She built Labour’s economic credibility out of the ashes they were left in after the Corbyn leadership. And she has built that trust, built up that plan, and now she’s following through.”
He declared that he has “total confidence in the leadership that Rachel’s providing, and the leadership that the cabinet is following and driving with her, because all of us have to deliver economic growth for our country”.
Minister ‘confident in chancellor’s long-term plan’
Speaking in a separate session at the conference, Ms Dodds noted “speculation” about the fiscal headroom (the amount of money the chancellor will have available to spend), but said: “We have to focus on actually the evidence.
“And when we look at the evidence, we can see that the UK government has a chancellor who is very clear about the long-term plan for our country. She’s been delivering on it.”
Ms Dodds, who also attends cabinet, pointed to a “new fiscal system”, the chancellor’s new Industrial Strategy Council, as well as “record levels of investment under Rachel Reeves’s leadership”.
“I think it’s really important for us to focus on those fundamentals, on what has been achieved in a very short space of time. And I’m confident in that long-term plan that Rachel has been setting out.
“And we can already see the benefit of that, frankly, in terms of the UK’s reputation when it comes to public finances, but economic management more generally. Certainly that’s what I’ve heard internationally and keep hearing just now.”
Chancellor accused of having ‘fled to China’
The pair were speaking as the chancellor holds meetings in China in a bid to drum up investment for the UK economy, having ignored calls to cancel the long-planned trip because of economic turmoil at home.
Opposition parties have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, and former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.
Speaking during her trip, Ms Reeves said she would not alter her economic plans, with the October budget designed to return the UK to economic stability, and reiterated that “growth is the number one mission of this government”.
She said that “action” will be taken to meet the fiscal rules. That action is reported to include deeper spending cuts than the 5% efficiency savings already expected to be announced later this year, while cuts to the welfare bill are also said to be under consideration.
Anti-corruption minister Tulip Siddiq could lose her job if the investigation into her properties finds she broke government rules, a cabinet member has suggested.
She has referred herself to the prime minister’s independent adviser on ministers’ interests, Sir Laurie Magnus, following reports she lived in properties in London linked to allies of her aunt, Sheikh Hasina, the deposed prime minister of Bangladesh.
There have also been questions about trips she took to Russia alongside her aunt.
Ms Siddiq insists she has “done nothing wrong”.
As economic secretary to the Treasury, Ms Siddiq oversees anti-corruption efforts in the financial sector as part of her brief.
Mr Kyle told Sky News: “With Tulip, she’s referred herself straight away to this.
“There is a process under way and we know full well it will be a functional process, and the outcomes of it will be stuck to by the prime minister and this government, a complete contrast to what we’ve had in the past.”
He gave this answer after Trevor pointed out Labour would have been calling for a sacking if the roles were reversed and the Tories were in power.
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2:02
‘Tulip Siddiq will lose job if she broke rules’
Mr Kyle contrasted his party’s stance with the Conservative one – saying he called for an investigation into allegations of bullying from Priti Patel, and she “had to be dragged to that inquiry”.
He added that he let the inquiry pan out.
“The results came out, she was found guilty, and no action happened,” Mr Kyle said.
His response came after Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called for Ms Siddiq to be sacked yesterday.
Shadow chancellor Mel Stride repeated the calls today to Sky News.
He said: “What is not right is that the prime minister is not moving her out of that position and getting her to step down
“Because she is the anti-corruption minister, she has serious charges laid against her now, or serious accusations around corruption, and it’s going to be really impossible for her to do that job under current circumstances.
“So she should step down, and the prime minister needs to get a grip of that.”
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The chancellor has said the budget is “non-negotiable” on a visit to China in the face of volatile markets back in the UK.
Rachel Reeves flew out on Friday after ignoring calls from opposition parties to cancel the long-planned trip because of economic turmoil at home.
The past week has seen a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.
The Tories have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, while the Liberal Democrats say she should stay in Britain and announce a “plan B” to address market volatility.
Former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.
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1:14
Chancellor’s ‘pragmatic’ approach to China
However, during a visit to Beijing’s flagship store of UK bike maker Brompton, Ms Reeves said she would not alter her economic plans, with the October budget designed to return the UK to economic stability.
“Growth is the number one mission of this government,” she said.
“The fiscal rules laid out in the budget are non-negotiable. Economic stability is the bedrock for economic growth and prosperity.”
The treasury added that making Britain better off will be at the “forefront of the chancellor’s mind” during her visit.
She said that “action” will be taken to meet the fiscal rules. That action is reported to include deeper spending cuts than the 5% efficiency savings already expected to be announced later this year, while cuts to the welfare bill are also said to be under consideration.
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The UK has laid out a new economic relationship with China, and to use one of China’s favourite phrases, both countries are selling it as a “win-win” situation.
It’s a significant development in restoring ties between the countries. The relationship has been beset by years of tension and suspicion. Both sides want to get it back on track.
China delivered a warm welcome for the chancellor.
Rachel Reeves was shuttled from a Beijing Brompton bike shop, to the Great Hall of the People and on to a state guest house.
China’s vice premier He Lifeng said: “The outcomes we have agreed today represent pragmatic co-operation in action.”
Pragmatic. There is that word again. Chancellor Reeves uttered it four times in her closing statement.
Despite the bonhomie, China is still likely to view these British overtures with caution.
She met her counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, in Beijing on Saturday to discuss financial services, trade and investment, before heading to Shanghai for talks with representatives across British and Chinese businesses.
On Friday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy defended the trip, telling Sky News that the climbing cost of government borrowing was a “global trend” that had affected many countries, “most notably the United States”.
“We are still on track to be the fastest growing economy, according to the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] in Europe,” she told Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast.
“China is the second-largest economy, and what China does has the biggest impact on people from Stockton to Sunderland, right across the UK, and it’s absolutely essential that we have a relationship with them.”
Rachel Reeves’s trip to China – the first by a British chancellor since 2019 – was always going to be controversial.
In recent years Conservative governments have been keeping Beijing at arm’s length – amid concern about espionage, the situation in Hong Kong, and the treatment of the Uyghurs.
David Cameron’s so-called “Golden Era” of engagement in the pursuit of economic investment, notoriously capped by a visit to an Oxfordshire pub for a pint with President Xi Jinping – has been widely written off as a naive mistake.
There are many – not least the incoming US President Donald Trump – who believe we should maintain our distance.
But in another era of economic turmoil, the pursuit of growth is the government’s number one priority.
This week’s difficult market news – with the cost of government borrowing surging, and the value of the pound falling – has thoroughly raised the stakes.
It is the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) since 2019, building on the Labour government’s plan for a “pragmatic” policy with the world’s second-largest economy.
Sir Keir Starmer was the first British prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in six years at the G20 summit in Brazil last autumn.
Relations between the UK and China have become strained over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks.
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2:45
How much do we trade with China?
Navigating this has proved tricky given China is the UK’s fourth largest single trading partner, with a trade relationship worth almost £113bn and exports to China supporting over 455,000 jobs in the UK in 2020, according to the government.
During the Tories’ 14 years in office, the approach varied dramatically from the “golden era” under David Cameron to hawkish aggression under Liz Truss, while Rishi Sunak vowed to be “robust” but resisted pressure from his own party to brand China a threat.
The Treasury said a stable relationship with China would support economic growth and that “making working people across Britain secure and better off is at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind”.
Ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “By finding common ground on trade and investment, while being candid about our differences and upholding national security as the first duty of this government, we can build a long-term economic relationship with China that works in the national interest.”