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Rishi Sunak has appeared to quash lingering speculation of a May general election – saying “nothing has changed” since he last indicated it will happen in the autumn.

The prime minister told reporters in January that his “working assumption” is that voters will go to the polls in “the second half of this year”.

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However, he did not rule out a May election categorically, prompting speculation he was keeping the option up his sleeve.

Some pundits argued Mr Sunak could go to the polls early if the spring budget on Wednesday contained enough giveaways – but the lack of radical measures cooled such talk.

Mr Sunak further poured cold water on suggestions of a May election on Thursday.

When asked about the date of the election by BBC Local Radio in Yorkshire, Mr Sunak said: “I was very clear about this at the beginning of the year about my working assumption for the election being in the second half of the year – nothing has changed since then.”

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‘Working assumption’ that election will be ‘second half of the year’

The prime minister also said the focus on the election date is from the Labour Party to “distract from the fact that actually they don’t want to talk about the substance”.

However, Labour’s national campaign manager Pat McFadden hit back: “Rishi Sunak should stop squatting in Downing Street and give the country what it desperately needs – a chance for change.

“The prime minister needs to finally come clean with the public and name the date of an election now.”

Technically, Mr Sunak can wait until December before calling an election, meaning voters would then cast their ballots in January 2025.

Sky News has spoken to pollsters about the factors he will be weighing up in making the decision.

With the Tory party 20 points behind in the polls, the prevailing assumption is that he will wait as long as possible to make up ground against Labour.

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However there has been a lingering theory that he could go in May to avoid things getting worse – especially if there was a package of tax cuts in the spring budget that would make voters happy, or if the stalled Rwanda plan got off the ground.

The government has said it is focused on Rwanda flights taking off “in the spring.”

Meanwhile, in Wednesday’s budget, national income tax was cut by a further 2p, on top of the 2p already cut in the autumn statement. But some Tory MPs said this was not enough to win over voters looking elsewhere.

While the measure will save the average worker around £900, the overall tax burden is still set to rise by record levels because of freezes to tax thresholds.

Among the critics was the former home secretary, Suella Braverman, who told Sky News the budget “lacked something vivid to tell the British people we’re on their side”, saying that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt should have cut income tax.

She said that her party is in a “dire position” with some “very good MPs” likely to lose their seats.

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Sunak ‘would be nuts’ to call election in May

Mr Hunt has left the door open for more pre-election giveaways, telling Times Radio “theoretically it would be possible ” to have another fiscal event if there is an election in autumn.

Speaking on his podcast Political Currency, former Tory chancellor George Osborne said if he was prime minister he would consider going to the polls as late as possible, in January 2025.

He said there are “a surprising number of Tory MPs” who think Downing Street is considering a May election “because they think things will only get worse”.

But he said in his opinion that “would be absolutely nuts”.

“You do not call a general election when you’re 26 points behind and you still have nine months left of your mandate to run,” Mr Osborne said.

“If I was Sunak, I wouldn’t be ruling out an election in January 2025. You want to give yourself maximum room for manoeuvre. “

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Thiel-backed Erebor wins US approval as Silicon Valley Bank rival emerges

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Erebor’s green light from US regulators is among the most significant bank charter approvals tied to digital assets since the 2023 regional banking crisis.

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China Merchants Bank tokenizes .8B fund on BNB Chain in Hong Kong

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

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‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

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