EV maker Rivian’s (RIVN) stock is trending Thursday ahead of the highly anticipated launch of its new R2 electric SUV. Rivian stock scored a buy rating from Jefferies Finacial Group, suggesting over 45% upside potential.
Rivian stock scores buy rating ahead of R2 reveal
Rivian will reveal its more affordable R2 electric SUV at 10 am PT (1 pm ET) later today at its swanky new Laguna showroom. The event will be live-streamed, and you can check back here for the full details.
Leading up to its release, Rivian has teased the new electric SUV, showing what appears to be a smaller version of its top-selling R1S.
Rivian’s CEO, RJ Scaringe, vows that the R2 keeps the “essence of the brand” in a smaller, more affordable package. Leaked info earlier this week shows the R2 will start at $47,000 with up to 330 miles range. With the anticipated $7,500 EV tax credit, the R2 starting price could potentially fall below $40,000.
Meanwhile, there’s still plenty to be revealed later today. Ahead of the official R2 debut, Rivian’s stock earned a buy rating from Jefferies with a $16 price target.
Rivian (RIVN) stock chart over the past 12 months (Source: TradingView)
With Rivian’s stock currently around $11 per share, the target suggests over 45% upside potential. Rivian shares have slipped over 47% through the first three months of 2024 following. RIVN shares hit an all-time low last month following a double analyst downgrade and plans to trim 10% of its workforce.
Rivian R2 teaser (Source: Rivian)
A substantial opportunity ahead
Although Rivian’s pace slowed in Q4 with 13,972 vehicles delivered, the EV maker anticipated it. CFO Claire McDonough said Rivian expected “a more significant gap between production and deliveries in Q4.” This was due to Amazon limiting intake during the holiday season.
Rivian reported a gross loss of $606 million in the fourth quarter, an improvement from the $1 billion loss last year. However, it was still up from (-$477 million) in Q3 and (-$412 million) in Q4.
Q3 ’22
Q4 ’22
Q1 ’23
Q2 ’23
Q3 ’23
Q4 ’23
Rivian loss per vehicle
$139,277
$124,162
$67,329
$32,594
$30,500
$43,372
Rivian loss per vehicle by quarter
Gross margins also slipped to (-46%), equaling out to a $43,372 loss on every vehicle delivered between October and December.
Although that’s still a significant loss, it’s a substantial improvement from the over $124,000 loss per vehicle in Q4 2022.
Rivian production at its Normal, Ill facility (Source: Rivian)
Rivian will introduce new engineering and supplier upgrades during the planned shutdown at its Normal, Illinois EV plant in Q2 that will “meaningfully reduce” material costs exiting 2024. The EV maker projects a “modest growth profit” by the end of the year.
Due to the upgrades, Rivian expects to deliver around 57,000 vehicles this year, about the same as last year.
Rivian R2 teaser (Source: Rivian)
Rivian believes the “opportunity ahead is substantial” as it expands the brand. Check back later today for all the details of Rivian’s new R2.
Electrek’s Take
Although there are concerns about Rivian’s dwindling cash reserve, McDonough said the company remains “confident that our cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments can fund our operations through 2025.”
Over the long term, Rivian sees a clear path to its projected 25% gross margin target and roughly 10% free cash flow margin target.
Rivian has already established itself as an authentic luxury EV brand. The R2 will help it expand into new markets, even Europe and potentially others. A quick skim through online forums shows Rivian already has fans overseas.
The smaller electric SUV will be built at Rivian’s new $5 billion GA EV facility. Rivian’s second EV manufacturing plant is expected to begin production in 2026.
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Japanese equipment giant Kubota brought 22 new or updated machines to the 2025 bauma expo earlier this year, but tucked away in the corners was a new retrofit kit that can help existing customers decarbonize more quickly, and more affordably.
The latest equipment maker to put its name on the retrofit list is Kubota, who says its kit can be installed by a trained dealer in a single day.
That’s right! By this time tomorrow, your diesel-powered Kubota KX019 or U27-4 excavator (shown) could be fitted with an 18 or 20 kWh li-ion battery pack and electric drive motors and ready to get to work in a low-noise or low-vibration work environment where emissions are a strict no-no. Think indoor precision demolition or historic archeological excavation.
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Then, if necessary, it can go right back to diesel power.
Kubota says its modular retrofit kits is a response to the increasing global demand for sustainable alternatives by focusing on making machinery that’s flexible and repairable enough to be “reusable,” and offer construction fleet managers a longer operational lifespan, superior ROI (return on investment), and lower TCO (total cost of ownership) than the competition.
Kubota’s solution also notably reduces maintenance costs and operational overheads. With no engine and associated components, servicing time and expenses are considerably reduced, saving customers both time and money. Additionally, with electricity costing far less than fossil fuels, it offers a highly economical advantage.
International Rental News reports that other changes to the excavators include a more modern cab controls with a digital instrument cluster, a 60 mm wider undercarriage for more stability, and an independent travel circuit allows operators to use the boom, dipper, bucket, and auxiliary functions without an impact on tracking performance.
Kubota’s new kit, first shown at last year’s Hillhead exhibition in the UK, will officially be on sale this summer – any day now, in fact – though pricing has yet to be announced.
Electrek’s Take
If you’re wondering how it is that we’re still talking about bauma 2025 a full quarter after the show wrapped up, then I haven’t done a good enough job of explaining how positively massive the show was. Check out this Quick Charge episode (above) then let us know what you think of Kubota’s modular power kits in the comments.
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Elon Musk isn’t happy about Trump passing the Big Beautiful Bill and killing off the $7,500 EV tax credit – but there’s a lot more bad news for Tesla baked into the BBB. We’ve got all that and more on today’s budget-busting episode of Quick Charge!
We also present ongoing coverage of the 2025 Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix and dive into some two wheeled reports on the new electric Honda Ruckus e:Zoomer, the latest BMW electric two-wheeler, and more!
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.
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Got news? Let us know! Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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Solar and wind accounted for almost 96% of new US electrical generating capacity added in the first third of 2025. In April, solar provided 87% of new capacity, making it the 20th consecutive month solar has taken the lead, according to data belatedly posted on July 1 by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign.
Solar’s new generating capacity in April 2025 and YTD
In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through April 30, 2025), FERC says 50 “units” of solar totaling 2,284 megawatts (MW) were placed into service in April, accounting for 86.7% of all new generating capacity added during the month.
In addition, the 9,451 MW of solar added during the first four months of 2025 was 77.7% of the new generation placed into service.
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity added each month for 20 consecutive months, from September 2023 to April 2025.
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Solar + wind were >95% of new capacity in 1st third of 2025
Between January and April 2025, new wind provided 2,183 MW of capacity additions, accounting for 18.0% of new additions in the first third.
In the same period, the combination of solar and wind was 95.7% of new capacity while natural gas (511 MW) provided just 4.2%; the remaining 0.1% came from oil (11 MW).
Solar + wind are >22% of US utility-scale generating capacity
The installed capacities of solar (11.0%) and wind (11.8%) are now each more than a tenth of the US total. Together, they make up almost one-fourth (22.8%) of the US’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.
Moreover, at least 25-30% of US solar capacity is in small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that are not reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar + wind to more than a quarter of the US total.
With the inclusion of hydropower (7.7%), biomass (1.1%), and geothermal (0.3%), renewables currently claim a 31.8% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity. If small-scale solar capacity is included, renewables are now about one-third of total US generating capacity.
Solar is on track to become No. 2 source of US generating capacity
FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between May 2025 and April 2028 total 90,158 MW – an amount almost four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (22,793 MW), the second-fastest growing resource. Notably, both three-year projections are higher than those provided just a month earlier.
FERC also foresees net growth for hydropower (596 MW) and geothermal (92 MW) but a decrease of 123 MW in biomass capacity.
Taken together, the net new “high probability” capacity additions by all renewable energy sources over the next three years – i.e., the bulk of the Trump administration’s remaining time in office – would total 113,516 MW.
FERC doesn’t include any nuclear capacity in its three-year forecast, while coal and oil are projected to contract by 24,373 MW and 1,915 MW, respectively. Natural gas capacity would expand by 5,730 MW.
Thus, adjusting for the different capacity factors of gas (59.7%), wind (34.3%), and utility-scale solar (23.4%), electricity generated by the projected new solar capacity to be added in the coming three years should be at least six times greater than that produced by the new natural gas capacity, while the electrical output by new wind capacity would be more than double that by gas.
If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialize, by May 1, 2028, solar will account for one-sixth (16.6%) of US installed utility-scale generating capacity. Wind would provide an additional one-eighth (12.6%) of the total. That would make each greater than coal (12.2%) and substantially more than nuclear power or hydropower (7.3% and 7.2%, respectively).
In fact, assuming current growth rates continue, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar is likely to surpass that of either coal or wind within two years, placing solar in second place for installed generating capacity, behind only natural gas.
Renewables + small-scale solar may overtake natural gas within 3 years
The mix of all utility-scale (ie, >1 MW) renewables is now adding about two percentage points each year to its share of generating capacity. At that pace, by May 1, 2028, renewables would account for 37.7% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity – rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.1%). Solar and wind would constitute more than three-quarters of installed renewable energy capacity. If those trend lines continue, utility-scale renewable energy capacity should surpass that of natural gas in 2029 or sooner.
However, as noted, FERC’s data do not account for the capacity of small-scale solar systems. If that’s factored in, within three years, total US solar capacity could exceed 300 GW. In turn, the mix of all renewables would then be about 40% of total installed capacity while the share of natural gas would drop to about 38%.
Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 224,426 MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 69,530 MW of new wind, 9,072 MW of new hydropower, 202 MW of new geothermal, and 39 MW of new biomass. By contrast, net new natural gas capacity potentially in the three-year pipeline totals just 26,818 MW. Consequently, renewables’ share could be even greater by mid-spring 2028.
“The Trump Administration’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ … poses a clear threat to solar and wind in the years to come,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “Nonetheless, FERC’s latest data and forecasts suggest cleaner and lower-cost renewable energy sources may still dominate and surpass nuclear power, coal, and natural gas.”
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