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All my bandwidth this week has been given over to the spring budget, the moment of the year when Chancellor Jeremy Hunt tells us his plans for the economy – how he’s going to cut our taxes, or increase and set out where he’s going to spend some of our money.

But this week was a tale of two budgets: the one obsessed over in Westminster and then the budget of Birmingham Council, which has huge repercussions for the city’s one million plus population.

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I didn’t think much about the Birmingham story over the past few days as I joined the rest of the Westminster village in obsessing about whether the chancellor was going to cut national insurance or income tax, administer further public spending cuts to boost tax giveaways (and give a future Labour government a headache) or nick the opposition’s plan to abolish tax breaks for so-called wealthy “non-doms” who live in the UK with a permanent home overseas (FYI: Hunt didn’t shave more off future spending plans but they did nick Labour’s plan to scrap non-dom plan to raise £2.7bn for tax cuts).

But the dire situation of many councils across England is perhaps what is closer to the hearts of our Electoral Dysfunction listeners.

Sure the national budget matters hugely in setting the economic direction of our country and deciding on what public services with prioritise.

But local council budgets service much of our daily bread and butter: Our bin collections, childcare services, adult social care, leisure centres, parks and libraries, our carparks and road maintenance.

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Between 2010 and 2020, local government fund suffered a 40% real terms cut in grants from central government.

In December nearly one in five council bosses said they thought it “fairly or very likely” they will go bust in the next 15 months as funding fails to keep pace with inflationary costs, and rising demand for a raft of services – be in child protection or adult social care.

And it was Hayley’s email that landed in our Electoral Dysfunction inbox that pulled my attention out of Westminster.

Hayley, who has been an officer in local government for the last 20 years, emailed in to talk about how “the last few years have been difficult”.

“In a district council setting, that I have always been incredibly proud to work in, I’m now left feeling like I might need to move on – mentally exhausted, emotionally drained,” she said.

“It’s impossible to feel like you are delivering anything meaningful because of reducing finance and increasing demand.

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Good people are leaving and the public perception is at an all low – and I have a huge amount of sympathy for that.”

She added: “I’d love to know Jess and Ruth’s view on the present state of local government, what they think the future holds – and what they think the current government’s intentions for local government are.”

It’s so pertinent this week, because this was the moment, away from Westminster, that Birmingham City Council – the city in which Electoral Dysfunction’s Jess Phillips is an MP, signed off £300m in cuts ahead of a 21% rise in council tax over two years, after declaring itself effectively bankrupt.

Financial measures described as “devastating” to people living in the city, Europe’s largest local authority could not afford to meet its financial obligations – after facing equal pay claims of up to £760m, and an £80m overspend on an under-fire IT system.

Jess, who knows the Birmingham situation all too well, talks about how councils – and this is not politically party specific – have been “massively defunded” but also says “as somebody who lives in Birmingham”, the [Labour-run] council has not been well managed.

Ruth says local government is the “bit of politics that affects people’s lives 100 per cent” and thinks the largest council in all of Europe going bust “should have been a bigger story”.

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Budget 2024: The key announcements of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s speech

She also points out that Scotland’s local government is funded by Holyrood, where the row between central and local government over funding is very much live.

We are, says Jess, “sitting on a time bomb” with vulnerable children and adults struggling to access services now, that will only service to build up a bigger bill later.

Communities secretary Michael Gove last month announced a 6.5% increase in funding for local councils in England, but the £64bn settlement is unlikely to quell fears of a wave of de facto town hall bankruptcies, with the Local Government Association saying it was not enough to meet “severe pressures”.

The budget in Westminster did little to defuse this ticking time bomb on Wednesday.

The Institute for Government concluded in its budget wash up that the Conservative administration would “bequeath a dismal public services legacy to whoever wins the general election”, adding “it is also likely that more local authorities could issue section 114 [bankruptcy] notices, necessitating further painful cuts to services.”

Problems likely to be passed to Labour should they win the next general election.

But it’s going to get much harder for Westminster to ignore the continued problems of local government budgets if more council dominos continue to fall, especially in an election year.

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Tories heading for ‘warfare’, Farage predicts, as ex-Cabinet minister pleads with voters to ‘unite the right’

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Tories heading for 'warfare', Farage predicts, as ex-Cabinet minister pleads with voters to 'unite the right'

Nigel Farage has predicted the Tories will soon descend into “warfare” as a former Conservative minister warned voters about a “Labour elective dictatorship” if they voted for Reform.

The Reform UK leader told The Sunday Telegraph that divisions in the party were only going to “get worse” in the run-up to polling day on 4 July.

Mr Farage was speaking as three polls this week painted a bleak picture for Mr Sunak – and a sunny one for his party.

A poll by Savanta for The Sunday Telegraph showed the Tories down four points to just 21% of the vote – the lowest by that pollster since the dying days of Theresa May’s premiership in early 2019.

In a boost for Mr Farage, the poll showed Reform UK up three points with 13% of the vote.

Election latest: Tories ‘facing electoral extinction’, says pollster

A separate Survation poll for Best for Britain, published by The Sunday Times, predicted the Tories would win just 72 seats in the next parliament, compared with 456 for Labour.

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The result would give Labour a majority of 262 seats – far surpassing the landslide Labour achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 – while the Liberal Democrats would pick up 56 seats, Reform seven and the Greens one seat.

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Earlier in the week, a YouGov poll put Reform ahead of the Tories for the first time – on 19% of the vote, compared with 18% for the Conservatives.

Mr Farage, who is set to launch Reform’s manifesto on Monday, told the Sunday Telegraph that “within a week, you watch… there’ll be warfare within the Conservative Party as there was in the run-up to ’97,” referring to the election when Labour last won a landslide under Mr Blair.

He likened the current divisions in the Conservative Party – chiefly over migration – to splits under former Tory prime minister John Major over joining the Euro.

“In the run-up to ’97, John Major said that he was agnostic about joining the Euro,” he told the newspaper.

“Those who wanted to join the Euro did their own manifesto and raised their own money. It was an absolutely split, divided joke and the same will happen in this election. You watch, it’s coming.

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“You will start to see those MPs, who I agree with on most things, start becoming much more vociferous about their stance as opposed to that of the party. The splits are going to get worse. And to them, I will say: ‘Sorry guys, you are just in the wrong party’.”

It comes as former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who is touted as a future Tory leader, gave an interview with the same newspaper saying he “shares the frustrations” of traditional Tory voters who are tempted to defect to Reform – but that they should stick with Mr Sunak’s party to avoiding handing Labour a landslide.

“I have immense sympathy for those natural Conservatives who feel let down and drawn to Reform,” he said.

Robert Jenrick
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Robert Jenrick says he has sympathy for those natural Conservatives who feel drawn to Reform

“Not only do I understand their frustrations, I share many of them.

“The tax burden is too high, the criminal justice system too soft and public services too inefficient. My disagreements with the government on immigration policy meant I resigned from cabinet.”

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He added: “But, ultimately, a vote for Reform will only give Labour a blank cheque to take our country back to the 1970s.

“Voting Reform cannot be the answer. It can only bring about a government that increases taxes and immigration. Their success can only weaken the conservative movement. The right cannot unify after the election if there is no meaningful force in parliament to coalesce around.

“Our task is to make conservatives across Britain aware of this peril. If we can do that, and make the case that only a vote for the Conservative Party can prevent a calamitous one-party state come 5 July, then we can avert disaster.”

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Musk promises ban on Apple, Greenpeace calls for Bitcoin’s PoS, and other news: Hodler’s Digest, June 9-15

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Musk promises ban on Apple, Greenpeace calls for Bitcoin’s PoS, and other news: Hodler’s Digest, June 9-15

Elon Musk threatens to ban Apple devices if they integrate with ChatGPT, Greenpeace calls for a shift in Bitcoin’s consensus mechanism, and more.

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Fresh poll predicts Tories will win just 72 seats in next parliament

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Eight Israeli soldiers killed inside Gaza - as Palestinian death toll 'tops 37,000'

Two polls published today spell bad news for Rishi Sunak, with one showing a drop of four points and the other that his party is on course to pick up just 72 seats.

A poll by Savanta for The Daily Telegraph showed the Tories are down four points to just 21% of the vote – the lowest by that pollster since the dying days of Theresa May’s premiership in 2019.

In a boost for Nigel Farage, the poll showed Reform UK up three points with 13% of the vote.

Election latest: Starmer avoids saying where funding for NHS reform will come from

A separate Survation poll for Best for Britain, published by The Times, predicted that the Tories would win just 72 seats in the next parliament, compared with 456 for Labour.

It comes after a YouGov poll on Thursday night put Nigel Farage’s party on 19% of the vote, compared with 18% for the Conservatives.

The development prompted Mr Farage to declare Reform as the “opposition to Labour” going into the election.

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